Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

. I am bearish until the next halving though if I’m honest.

.... aaaand this is a bullish sign imo.... you were wahwahwahwall of worrying it the whole way up to fake top of ~60k when you sold out to fiat

Sold 25% of my stash that I held since 2014. I now never have to work again, I’m mid 30’s. I don’t regret selling that 25% one bit. It saves me from deludedly thinking we’re going to 200k or something this cycle. The top is in imo, I’ve made peace with that.

On the way up to 60k I was a bitch because I was 100% bitcoin, my life literally depended on it. Now I’m sitting on large fiat bags & more bitcoin than (I’m pretty sure) 99% of people in this thread.

• If we moon this year I sell more
• If we dump, I buy most of what I sold back at a big discount
• If we’re in a crab market for 18 months, cool

My opinion is we won’t see another ATH until after the next halving in 2024. We’ll probably rocket to 300k or something amazingly high in 2025. That’s how this works, 4 year cycles, bull to bear to bull to bear & repeat. You know that though. Selling 25% gave me peace of mind, I can sleep at night now. I’m currently in the process of buying a new house with cash (no mortgage - thanks to bitcoin). There was no way I was going through another cycle shitting myself after selling nothing AGAIN.

We all have families to support & decisions to make. I think I’ve played it near perfectly to be honest.

I have nothing but respect for this position.  And it makes crazy good sense.

I have cashed in some of my stack at various times over the years.  And the defense I have for it is pretty simple.

- If it goes up? Well that's the problem I WANT right there.  I still have most of it.
- If it goes down? Well hooray me... My Bitcoin secured some luxury for me.
- I don't live forever.  And I can't take it to my grave.
- Making my kids billionaires will ruin both them AND their children.

I *do* think you are possibly wrong about your cycle thesis.  Even though I support your reasoning behind your hedge.  In fact I think it's a damn good hedge (really... that's my point here).  I could have retired multiple times just in what I lost between 2018-2020 on the only alt coin I own.  It's regained ALL that value in the last year... and will again, I think. And it's my smaller position.  I went through the same pain you did.  But that pain did something really weird to me.  It made me realize that I will be about as happy as I am whether or not I have the money. 

All my joy and all my problems will persist whether I can afford ... well whatever.

And I am naturally frugal.  Got it from my dad, I guess.  I have never NEEDED the money.

That said... looks like I have some relatives who may need to be taken care of.  So you better bet your ass I will make sure that can happen.

That's why I see your position as righteous.  You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am.  At least not on the whole stack.  And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do by avoiding it.  After all... I can lose ALL the value of my position.  Or I could die tomorrow.  And like I said... I am not gambling the whole lot either.  It's paid for some stuff...

But who knows?

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[Biodom]

. I am bearish until the next halving though if I’m honest.

.... aaaand this is a bullish sign imo.... you were wahwahwahwall of worrying it the whole way up to fake top of ~60k when you sold out to fiat

Sold 25% of my stash that I held since 2014. I now never have to work again, I’m mid 30’s. I don’t regret selling that 25% one bit. It saves me from deludedly thinking we’re going to 200k or something this cycle. The top is in imo, I’ve made peace with that.

On the way up to 60k I was a bitch because I was 100% bitcoin, my life literally depended on it. Now I’m sitting on large fiat bags & more bitcoin than (I’m pretty sure) 99% of people in this thread.

• If we moon this year I sell more
• If we dump, I buy most of what I sold back at a big discount
• If we’re in a crab market for 18 months, cool

My opinion is we won’t see another ATH until after the next halving in 2024. We’ll probably rocket to 300k or something amazingly high in 2025. That’s how this works, 4 year cycles, bull to bear to bull to bear & repeat. You know that though. Selling 25% gave me peace of mind, I can sleep at night now. I’m currently in the process of buying a new house with cash (no mortgage - thanks to bitcoin). There was no way I was going through another cycle shitting myself after selling nothing AGAIN.

We all have families to support & decisions to make. I think I’ve played it near perfectly to be honest.

I have nothing but respect for this position.  And it makes crazy good sense.

I have cashed in some of my stack at various times over the years.  And the defense I have for it is pretty simple.

- If it goes up? Well that's the problem I WANT right there.  I still have most of it.
- If it goes down? Well hooray me... My Bitcoin secured some luxury for me.
- I don't live forever.  And I can't take it to my grave.
- Making my kids billionaires will ruin both them AND their children.

I *do* think you are possibly wrong about your cycle thesis.  Even though I support your reasoning behind your hedge.  In fact I think it's a damn good hedge (really... that's my point here).  I could have retired multiple times just in what I lost between 2018-2020 on the only alt coin I own.  It's regained ALL that value in the last year... and will again, I think. And it's my smaller position.  I went through the same pain you did.  But that pain did something really weird to me.  It made me realize that I will be about as happy as I am whether or not I have the money. 

All my joy and all my problems will persist whether I can afford ... well whatever.

And I am naturally frugal.  Got it from my dad, I guess.  I have never NEEDED the money.

That said... looks like I have some relatives who may need to be taken care of.  So you better bet your ass I will make sure that can happen.

That's why I see your position as righteous.  You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am.  And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do. 

But who knows?

nice writeup too...

The future is HIGHLY uncertain now, I feel. Maybe descendants might need a good cave instead of cash  .
Athough, unless LFC cashed out mid 7 digits (or even low 8 digits), i don't think you can be 100% sure that it would be enough for the next 40-50 years (if peaceful).. and that is the expected remaining life span for a healthy 35 year old. Not trying to pin it down, just bracketing.

[JayJuanGee]

the path of least resistance
which i believe is up at this temporal point

At this temporal point.. .. hahahahahaha

the next 3 hours and 26 minutes happen to be critical^tm because according to one of our most duly recognized and frequently wrongedly blowing in the wind "analysts" (if that's what he be properly called?), such time duration happens to be within this temporal point.


Go sorcerers that be!!!!!!!!!



 

How are you today's entry, friends? In my country, I'm quite excited to welcome sweet tea and green prices, which rose slightly this morning by a few percent and made me believe this is a good step in this month we've been waiting for, the bulls will appear, I'm quite optimistic about this, that glory will return even though the queue for btc is so dense that they buy and sell, hehe
there will be a surprising confirmation, when the harvest moment will come, Ath will peak in Q2 this year, cheers

But why ruin the moods by bringing or mentioning other crap that might have relations with BTC ?

The fact of the matter is that everything in the world is going to have relations with BTC, so why point out specific ones that seem to be mere distractions..

Intended to ruin dee moo?

[edited out]

...........
You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am.  And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do.  

But who knows?

There's nothing wrong with shaving some profits on the way up, and for sure there can be an insurance rationale behind such shavings - so in fact whether there would have been an "objectively" better way to play it - seems to be somewhat irrelevant because the insurance angle has a bit of intangibility to it... because it is both psychological and financial (but also within the financial angle there is no real easy way to place a price upon the benefit that was gotten from a scenario that may well have ended up not playing out.)...  

Maybe it could be said that so many times, we end up paying more from insurance than any benefit that we get because we never get into any car accidents and our house never burns down.. but we would really be a in an insecure position in the event that we did not carry the insurance on those items.  perhaps?  perhaps?

Edited to add a wee bit:    So, yeah taking out insurance seems to have been what LFC did, which is not unlike what other members do in their managing their BTC holdings.. and each of us may well structure our insurance differently.. and second-judging others some of us might consider one member or another took out too much insurance or not enough or just played the whole insurance angle in ways that defeated the purpose.. by engaging in some kind of trading rather than having a system or even playing BIGGER swings - which would be more in line with the insurance ideas rather than trading ideas......  at the same time, the whole matter could end up playing out in such a way that some members (BTC HODLers) figure out ways to accomplish both.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The future is HIGHLY uncertain now, I feel. Maybe descendants might need a good cave instead of cash  .
Athough, unless LFC cashed out mid 7 digits (or even low 8 digits), i don't think you can be 100% sure that it would be enough for the next 40-50 years (if peaceful).. and that is the expected remaining life span for a healthy 35 year old. Not trying to pin it down, just bracketing.

Our growing knowledge regarding current uncertainties in keeping any value in cash or within assets that seems to have a lot of cash-embeddedness in them, seems to be part of the reason why LFC ONLY cashed out 25% - especially since around 3 years ago.. or maybe it was a bit longer than that?  LFC largely moved off of his earlier position in which he would have ended up cashing out very large portions of his BTC.. more than 80% if I recall correctly... so in considerable senses, LFC has reconsidered his position and even reconsidered the practicality of keeping a decent quantity of value continuing to ride within BTC.

It seems that quite a few of us within this thread have come around to this position in the past 3-5 years... and maybe some of these ideas came after bitcoin seemed to have had decisively won the 2017 block wars.. mostly resolving in the end of 2017 - but still having some lingering (mostly trolling) impacts for another year or two thereafter.

The fact that so many BTC HODLers have decided to keep large portions of their value in BTC has been a pretty damned widespread and ever increasing set of values that seem to have developed more extensively within BTC HODLers who had been paying quite a bit of attention to the bitcoin space in the past 3-8 years...

[cAPSLOCK]

There's nothing wrong with shaving some profits on the way up, and for sure there can be an insurance rationale behind such shavings - so in fact whether there would have been an "objectively" better way to play it - seems to be somewhat irrelevant because the insurance angle has a bit of intangibility to it... because it is both psychological and financial (but also within the financial angle there is no real easy way to place a price upon the benefit that was gotten from a scenario that may well have ended up not playing out.)...  

Maybe it could be said that so many times, we end up paying more from insurance than any benefit that we get because we never get into any car accidents and our house never burns down.. but we would really be a in an insecure position in the event that we did not carry the insurance on those items.  perhaps?  perhaps?

And therein lies the interesting part of the bet, if you ask me.

You can ask:  If xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then what is it worth to hold, and what to cash out now?

And how does that balance with my geriatric mother, and my struggling sister, and my children, and my wife, and my own desires for extravagance (umm, nil).

And if xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then how much is it worth to me NOW to lock in some comfort and security for MYSELF rather than provide fir all those folks who did not see it coming.

THAT... is a VERY PERSONAL DECISION.  And one that cannot be rightly judge by any man or woman NOT in YOUR shoes.

(this is, by extension, the reason we get angry when people come to beg for BTC they could have bought, or mined (or in the case of some lunatics played poker for)).

[rdbase]

Well that was a weird blip on the chart just now.
While checking the price just happen to catch it go up a couple of hundred on a leg up.
Pretty good corn!

Hahahaha

Looking at the three minute chart..  Hard to get me excited about a spiking UPpity $200-$300 wick within such candle when the BTC price base starts out at about $43,200 and it spikes all the way to the high tops of up to $43,500..  .. Is that a whole 0.7% (not even a whole percent) spike?  

Really?

Is anyone really going to get excited about that kind of candle wickening, unless such person (or bot) is just looking for an excuse to get excited about something?    

in other words:

nothing to see here.

in other words:

a big nothing burger

AmInotrite?

Not exciting but strange. Anyhow, it was the exact start of this bullrun up to past $44k we are at now. And it has not slowed down.
I never have, while looking at the chart for price had it jump up so quickly like this. And I look at the 3minute (actually forgot to change it to 15minute) while looking at the price difference when making a buy of btc.
It probably was the Do Kwon effect with him doing $125million purchase buys of BTC at all different times of the day.
As he has proposed on his twitter he'll be doing.
But then again you don't care about these sh*tcoins ramblings.

[aysg76]

Waking up to some small pumps also is refreshing and now having some $44k meals

The bears in the backyard have stop growling and back to hibernation in the jungle while birds are chirping sending away hold strong messages.Weekend pumps hit you hard

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

How are you today's entry, friends? In my country, I'm quite excited to welcome sweet tea and green prices, which rose slightly this morning by a few percent and made me believe this is a good step in this month we've been waiting for, the bulls will appear, I'm quite optimistic about this, that glory will return even though the queue for btc is so dense that they buy and sell, hehe
there will be a surprising confirmation, when the harvest moment will come, Ath will peak in Q2 this year, cheers

Punjabbbb ALERT!!! Amazonians be:  ALALALALALALALALALALALAAA ! "Throws Spears Towards Skinny Man!" ... MAN BE LIKE: ATATATATATAT !!!  then.. story ended. And therefore Alah was never born into the consciousness of the collective. GLORY TO UKRAINE!!    

I heard those nazi Amazonian gurls like them ukrainian boys. In body bags or alive and tied to their boats while splashing the waves, ruskies too.    

ALALALALALALALALALALALALALAAAA !!   ATATATATATA!..HATATATATATAAAT!!  


*edit(): Price prediction was very much, such eloquence, true charisma, much blood on the streets, everyone poor. No one cares, "Mad Max World Awaits", movie will be available on May 12 2222.   

(cuz it will take like 200 years for the nuclear fallout to settle)    .. (Don't worry, the movie will be made 100% CGI deep down in the caves that people live and heating their cold stone walls with "ASIC Destroyers V99".   

[Biodom]

You mad, bro?
A rhetorical question.

[savetherainforest]

You mad, bro?
A rhetorical question.

Sometimes I like to act like my grandkids when they play video games.    

#TotalManChild


*edit(): I keep hearing swears from the games all day in Punjab, Arab, Chinese, Afrikans, Brazilian, Spanish & English.

You should build yourself an underground farm and then after that build the house. At first it will be livable on the surface, and only the food/plants will be affected. And when the iodine & weather don't work properly anymore. Underground is the day. This is the way!   

^ All this is mostly if you live above the 50-60* degree Earth Paralel.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

no hat-tricks for CB!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Never thought about it but i wonder how many WO people are already on retirement mode?

I could easily retire if I wanted to (thanks to Bitcoin), but I like my job and I would actually pay to be able to do what I do. No reason to stop doing what I enjoy, and my salary is a nice bonus, that often gets transferred to Kraken to be converted to corn.

Maybe in a few years' time, or whenever I feel I need to. The goal should not be to retire, but to be able to. When one achieves that status, combined with certain types of creative work, there's no real need to retire, you simply enjoy what you do, be creative and productive, and financially independent too. Win-win.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

Now you have the next 5 years of looking forward to having nightmares of being a wage-slave, and waking up in a cold sweat, realizing "Oh, wow, that was just a dream.

It's been years since I had an employment dream (job-free since 1976). They always involved standing around trying to look busy.

Now I get poverty nightmares... trying to scrape up enough change to afford transit fare home or buy something to eat.

Funny how that works.