Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Paashaas]

It will bounce when U.S spot ETF will be approved in a couple of weeks i guess.

Forget about retail they are broke ore lost a lot of money with shitcoins and lost trust in this market. They are struggling paying life expenses due to high inflation anyway.

They will FOMO when corn hits $150k pushing it to $200k+ but then institutional/hedge funds sharks will dump on them AGAIN, like it always goes.

Going to the gym, have a nice day!

[1714292729]

1714292729

[1714292729]

1714292729

[1714292729]

1714292729

[1714292729]

1714292729

[1714292729]

1714292729

[El duderino_]

Co joining with this GYM thing

[Wilhelm]

Higher lows look like a promising reversal 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now.

selling at $220 was not frown at for most of 2015.
It depends what did you sell it for.

At that point most sales would of been because BTC is dead.

srsly? hardly, imho.

I remember this thread being a desert. A lot of people had given up.

maybe, but mining threads were as active as ever, maybe much more than today 'cause many people were mining with S7.
I think it was the last tolerable miner as far as noise at home is concerned (S9 and later had to go to a basement, a different structure or to a separate facility).

Majority or users (even back then) were not miners though.

Higher lows look like a promising reversal  

100k next week

[Wilhelm]

Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now.

selling at $220 was not frown at for most of 2015.
It depends what did you sell it for.

At that point most sales would of been because BTC is dead.

srsly? hardly, imho.

I remember this thread being a desert. A lot of people had given up.

maybe, but mining threads were as active as ever, maybe much more than today 'cause many people were mining with S7.
I think it was the last tolerable miner as far as noise at home is concerned (S9 and later had to go to a basement, a different structure or to a separate facility).

Majority or users (even back then) were not miners though.

Higher lows look like a promising reversal  

100k next week

1M next month 

[JayJuanGee]

Adjusted for the dollar’s real-world loss of value, I think that BTC must now be well below its December 2017 peak (never mind 200 WMA).  What goods and services could $19k buy in December 2017?  What goods and services can $28.5k buy now?

It's disingenuous to argue BTC price from its December 2017 top.

Get a grip.

Say what?  Disingenuous?  That is a rather pungent word, even if you disagree with me.  Whom do you allege I am misleading, and to what end?

There is a common belief that BTC can never dip below its previous 4-year cycle high.  Comparisons of a subsequent crash price to the previous cycle top are not my invention, as you no doubt are aware.

If such a crossing of the previous cycle top has occurred in real-value terms—not the silly mental habit of measuring all value in dollars—then that is a significant datum not only about Bitcoin, but also about the state of the financial markets generally.

There might be times in which starting from the top makes sense, but not the way that you framed the matter in your earlier post, which you had also made a similar point earlier.. No need to argue about it.. because it sounds like we disagree and I already made my point.. even though you are bringing up a new point, in your later response.

So they froze the chain?

the coin was like 8 bucks in june 2021 cap 2 bil

then 4.37 in dec 2021. 837 mil cap

then 2.13 in april 2022  544 mil cap


then 79 cents in may 2022 182 mil cap

now 25 cents in june 2022 64 mil cap

That is their shitcoin that you could get interest payouts in rather than the coin you lent to them.

What is happening with all the BTC and shitcoins people had on their platforming earning interest and how many of those coins were there. That's what I would like to know. If they sold 95m worth of BTC, who's BTC was it? theirs or their clients? Since the interest rates for BTC were always crap I figured that most of the client funds would of been in stable coins.

Lots of questions around these guys.

Weren't you using their service or some similar service (about a year or two ago) and then you came into this thread and told us that we were all dummies if we weren't earning interest on our bitcoins?

[somac.]

Adjusted for the dollar’s real-world loss of value, I think that BTC must now be well below its December 2017 peak (never mind 200 WMA).  What goods and services could $19k buy in December 2017?  What goods and services can $28.5k buy now?

It's disingenuous to argue BTC price from its December 2017 top.

Get a grip.

Say what?  Disingenuous?  That is a rather pungent word, even if you disagree with me.  Whom do you allege I am misleading, and to what end?

There is a common belief that BTC can never dip below its previous 4-year cycle high.  Comparisons of a subsequent crash price to the previous cycle top are not my invention, as you no doubt are aware.

If such a crossing of the previous cycle top has occurred in real-value terms—not the silly mental habit of measuring all value in dollars—then that is a significant datum not only about Bitcoin, but also about the state of the financial markets generally.

There might be times in which starting from the top makes sense, but not the way that you framed the matter in your earlier post, which you had also made a similar point earlier.. No need to argue about it.. because it sounds like we disagree and I already made my point.. even though you are bringing up a new point, in your later response.

So they froze the chain?

the coin was like 8 bucks in june 2021 cap 2 bil

then 4.37 in dec 2021. 837 mil cap

then 2.13 in april 2022  544 mil cap


then 79 cents in may 2022 182 mil cap

now 25 cents in june 2022 64 mil cap

That is their shitcoin that you could get interest payouts in rather than the coin you lent to them.

What is happening with all the BTC and shitcoins people had on their platforming earning interest and how many of those coins were there. That's what I would like to know. If they sold 95m worth of BTC, who's BTC was it? theirs or their clients? Since the interest rates for BTC were always crap I figured that most of the client funds would of been in stable coins.

Lots of questions around these guys.

Weren't you using their service or some similar service (about a year or two ago) and then you came into this thread and told us that we were all dummies if we weren't earning interest on our bitcoins?

Never used it, just said it was an option for generating yield on your BTC. I would rather wait for banks with their government/Fed guarantees for something like that but even then I probably wouldn't do it because the rates would be shit.

I was selling OTM call options, and unfortunately that has been going well. I say unfortunately because the very easy money made on that has been possible because the BTC price has been decreasing for so long. Also was only doing that on like 2% of my total holdings. holding off on that for the moment because I think strong up spikes are possible now with the amount of negative sentiment we have.

Playing the spread on futures and spot was the other option but that is a no goer trade at the moment. Never did that either.

[OgNasty]

There’s a lot to be pessimistic about right now in the Bitcoin market. First the UST disaster, now it seems Celsius is the next domino to fall. How far will that spread? There are rumors that Tether was invested into Celsius. Were other interest providing exchanges also exposed? Will the market be heavily dumped until these companies can afford to buy back their customer deposits? Will that trigger Saylor to sell? What about when the ETH 2.0 coins are unlocked and the mtgox coins hit the market? I’ve been saying $10K is in the near future, but seeing it play out is going to be painful.

[JayJuanGee]

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025!

remind me to sell some during 2025 at 250K, or maybe even 190K,  

I might have to revise my UPpity numbers at some point.. even though---at this point that I am typing this post, my UPpity numbers are not seeming as immediately relevant.. .. especially since within the past 8 minutes as I am about to hit "post", we just touched $24,745 as our new local low.

[somac.]

There’s a lot to be pessimistic about right now in the Bitcoin market. First the UST disaster, now it seems Celsius is the next domino to fall. How far will that spread? There are rumors that Tether was invested into Celsius. Were other interest providing exchanges also exposed? Will the market be heavily dumped until these companies can afford to buy back their customer deposits? Will that trigger Saylor to sell? What about when the ETH 2.0 coins are unlocked and the mtgox coins hit the market? I’ve been saying $10K is in the near future, but seeing it play out is going to be painful.

Tether FUD again, it will never end.

Things certainly look bad, but that is usually when things turn around. So we'll see how it goes over the coming weeks. Not gonna lie 10k would be upsetting to me.

[Wilhelm]

There’s a lot to be pessimistic about right now in the Bitcoin market. First the UST disaster, now it seems Celsius is the next domino to fall. How far will that spread? There are rumors that Tether was invested into Celsius. Were other interest providing exchanges also exposed? Will the market be heavily dumped until these companies can afford to buy back their customer deposits? Will that trigger Saylor to sell? What about when the ETH 2.0 coins are unlocked and the mtgox coins hit the market? I’ve been saying $10K is in the near future, but seeing it play out is going to be painful.

With all new technologies you always get the good and bad.
Networks failing is a good thing because it will make people look at the fundamentals.
It will cull the bad from the good. Stop the supply of new shitcoins.
Exchanges will become responsible for the coins they choose to list. They have to protect their customers and their own image...

Eth2.0 will cut supply by 90% which will add to scarcity and increase price.

MtGox coins will get absorbed by the big whales like Microstrategy if they push down the price.

Bitcoin has always been hard love. But those who just ride through the storm will find their rainbow with pot of gold.

[icopress]

[...]

So many questions that make my head spin.

Just recently Celsius withdrew 225k ETH from the Anchor protocol, so these losses are nothing compared to how much money they managed to save in the run-up to Tera's crash.. As far as bitcoin is concerned... I am very optimistic, at the very least, that the current decline will be an opportunity for me to buy more.

[somac.]

not too far from 200WMA now.

Mempool backed up a bit too.

Nasdaq futures almost down 3%. 2.7 at the moment

EDIT: futures now down 3.5%

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

not too far from 200WMA now.

Mfers here laughed at me when I said that BTC will touch 200 WMA back in Feb.

[somac.]

not too far from 200WMA now.

Mfers here laughed at me when I said that BTC will touch 200 WMA back in Feb.

I know. Don't take it personally, nobody likes predictions like that.

Question is, when your target is reached will you buy?

[ImThour]

not too far from 200WMA now.

Mfers here laughed at me when I said that BTC will touch 200 WMA back in Feb.

I know. Don't take it personally, nobody likes predictions like that.

Question is, when your target is reached will you buy?

Bought 50% of my portfolio at realized price which was 24.5k and waiting for rest 50% at 21.8k.
After that, everything is a freaking bonus.

[somac.]

not too far from 200WMA now.

Mfers here laughed at me when I said that BTC will touch 200 WMA back in Feb.

I know. Don't take it personally, nobody likes predictions like that.

Question is, when your target is reached will you buy?

Bought 50% of my portfolio at realized price which was 24.5k and waiting for rest 50% at 21.8k.
After that, everything is a freaking bonus.

Good play. Right now it looks like you're going to get it too.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG...sucks to be me, then, lol

I would speculate that to be true.

Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now.

selling at $220 was not frown at for most of 2015.
It depends what did you sell it for.

At that point most sales would of been because BTC is dead.

Bitcoin wasn’t dead.  It was merely expressing its divine displeasure at Hearn/XT.  (Not-early 2015.)

Fork Wars caused crashes in 2015 and 2018.  Thinking about POS, and Evil Hat(TM) economic attacks...

A lot of people had given up.

I guess it was nice of them to give their coins to you.

It is not easy to generalize regarding what people were doing back then, even though for sure a lot of interest was being lost and waning throughout the latest part of 2014.. so by the time we got to 2015, it seemed more difficult to get anyone excited about BTC.

I feel that I mostly ran out of money by early 2015 - and I even had folks telling me to sell a wee bit of my BTC to take care of some of my cashflow issues (and to protect my lil selfie from further downside).  I did not sell, except maybe sell and replace a few times, yet I felt that I was not really able to acquire too many BTC through the whole of 2015.. even though I did increased my stash during that time....

I remember around mid-2015 I had someone pay me for a good and service in bitcoin, and then the BTC price was around $224-ish.  About a week later, I asked that buyer if they had bought back the bitcoin yet... .. so I was trying to emphasize replacing anything that would have been spent.. but there were some folks who were way more blahzey about the whole bitcoin matter.

A little bit of a stressful time for many of us, and for me, too... and even for me, it took a while to get over some of the shell shock of such a long period of flat and even uncertainty.. and people blamed it on GOX.. and I  am not even sure if that should have been enough to really explain why flat for so long?

Oh.. and I did feel that I mostly exited out of my BTC accumulation phase during that time, but still I continued to accumulate even though I was supposed to be out of such phase.. but I did establish a BTC selling on the way up strategy around August/September 2015-ish.. .. but it would not really mean anything without actually putting it into practice.. learn more by practicing... which I started to do during that time..

not too far from 200WMA now.

Mfers here laughed at me when I said that BTC will touch 200 WMA back in Feb.

You are so amazing and under-appreciated, too.  


We might need to raise money for a statue... #justsaying.