Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[savetherainforest]

This price is still too high for me to buy  Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

But I wouldn't wait for 20K ...21-22K would sufice. Maybe even 23K if people will FOMO on 22K or lower and won't stay long there.   

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[1714309809]

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[Biodom]

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

yea, my most "stupid" investment-treasury money market fund is the best performer this year.
That one and some small biotech (most biotechs are down as well).

[Arriemoller]

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

Don't wait too long we are very close to the bottom and when it goes up it be it will be explosive.

The bottom has traditionally come a year after the top, this cycles top was however a twin top and weirdly low, so it might be different this time, but I doubt it.
So, in short, I think the bottom is in around december-ish.

[Biodom]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

But I wouldn't wait for 20K ...21-22K would sufice. Maybe even 23K if people will FOMO on 22K or lower and won't stay long there.    

There is no 'have to get' number: not 70, 80 or 85%
It just "finds" the buy/sell equilibrium, that's all.
There are too many factors involved to claim that it "has to" hit a certain number.

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

Don't wait too long we are very close to the bottom and when it goes up it be it will be explosive.

The bottom has traditionally come a year after the top, this cycles top was however a twin top and weirdly low, so it might be different this time, but I doubt it.
So, in short, I think the bottom is in around december-ish.

Maybe a "weird" double bottom to balance things out? like 25->45-50->24?
Besides, most people are now in agreement that the "real" top was in April (based on momentum, etc). November was an especially wimpy "top-lite".

[dragonvslinux]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least.

I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021.

This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  

Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now.

The week looks bad though.

[Biodom]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least.

I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021.

This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  

Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now.

Exactly!

[danadc]

The longs in the market can be an indicative that demand can be positive, that is, they are raising the price, will they be about to have a bullish trend?

Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex have tripled since April, up to 84,000 BTC last month and now up again to 93,500

Source: https://www.trustnodes.com/2022/06/12/bitcoin-longs-near-100000-btc

Maybe this is a good sign for the price begins its recovery, I would like it to reach $ 35k, if possible ...

[savetherainforest]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least.

I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021.

This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  

Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now.

The week looks bad though.

Hmmmm... Well it doesn't need to be 70% . It could be 69% or 68%.

Or it can be greater then 70%+.    

I was half assing it. Because the truth is that it is similar to a folding paper mechanic. You fold it until you can't, because the pressure is too great and you are just physically incapable of doing it and the paper will spring back.

But basically at around 65%+ we start to go into 'retarded territory' and that theoretical spring starts to coil. After 72% it's just a hot potato game, or a chair game, where the last one holding the cash keeps the crash.    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Who sold at the bottom?

My buy order triggered at $26.9 does that count?

Sure, it does!  After all, there are two sides to every trade.  Someone wanted to sell you those coins.

“A trade happens because both parties think they’re getting a good deal.” — Laszlo Hanyecz, speaking in 2019 about this little trade.  Laszlo is an honest Bitcoiner, who takes responsibility for his own trading decisions.

Someone out there had a buy order triggered by mindrust’s bitcoins, too.  At the moment he sold, even if he had doubts, mindrust believed that he was getting the better side of the trade:  Otherwise, he would not have traded.

You started after this, Copetech, so here is a walk down memory lane about infamous WO events that you see not infrequently mentioned:

I think I am about to capitulate .

I can live with one arm.

define capitulate

I am in panic. So yes. It is going down.

IF by the time I get a confirmation it becomes $3k, I'll just forget about it. Right now I can get back what I invested. My signature earnings are completely erased though.

I am out of my position from 4550USD.

Few moments later it went from 4000 to 4800 after I sold.

I am a nocoiner now.

Only lost $2k from my initial investment but who knows how much I lost from my future profits.

I just deleted every signature gain, every fork gain I got.

Cue a chorus of WO regulars screaming at him to buy back as much as he can, ASAP, even though he will inevitably now have much less BTC.

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

He has painted himself into a logical corner, and he is not likely to buy back shit, even if BTC prices were to go back to $4,900, it would not be enough for him because he would still be in a loss, and then if prices were to go to $4,500, that would not be enough because it is merely just breaking even for him, and the price could go lower..., and if the prices were to go to $4k, then he would not buy back either because it is too close to $3,850 which means that the price could go lower...  etc etc..

Yep. You got the picture. That's why I am only DCA'ing. I just erased my past bad memory. Starting from 2017 in 2020 again.  

I'd rather DCA. 50 bucks week. Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible. If it goes that low again you can be sure that it won't stop there so... DCA is the way. No dip buying, no big buying. 50 bucks week and that's it.

Even if goes below $4k again, I am not willing to risk more than %10 of my cash this time. I was too careless last time especially in the last months.

Waiting for a double price from here is gambling. I am fucking done with gambling.

Honestly after all whats said and done, if I had you in front of me, I would bitch slap you till you bought at least 50% of your coins back, i.e. 5, at these prices.
You did say you would ride it to zero, so fucking ride it to zero.

How can you keep on doing it wrong man?

I could ride it to zero before I spent too much cash on it. I was DCA'ing happily. 1 to gold, 2 to cash, 1 to btc. In time BTC started to go up and up and up and lately It was all btc and 0 to gold, 0 to cash. (then my saved cash started to go to btc too) That was a mistake.

Shortly thereafter, outside of WO (LOL, the rationalizations):

What does you guys thinking about the bitcoin fall because of the CORONA Viruses catastrophe? Will bitcoin fall to $3000 in this year of 2020? And what's about the halving?.

It is possible. I believe the worse is yet to come.

If the cure gets delayed for a while longer, it will be devastating. Not only to bitcoin but to everything else. Including your daily life. In a situation like I described you can't really make an educated guess about bitcoin. It very well may go to zero.

If an effective cure makes appearance soon though, it will only save bitcoin from going to zero. A new ATH may still happen but it might take longer than we originally hoped for.

The damage is already very big. There will be lots of pain and this pain can't be cured by printing more money.

Less than six months later, with Covid still ravaging the world:  Saylor announced his initial purchase.

Less than six months later, with Covid still ravaging the world:  BTC started the trajectory from the ≈$10k range to a new ATH before the end of the year.  Honey Badger DGAF about the virus.

If mindrust were smarter, then he would have made a new forum account named death_wish.  He wasn’t and isn’t; thus, the name was left for me.

Let me not mention my unwillingly sold bitcoins; I am trying not to think about that, as I teeter near the brink of a second liquidation that would leave me with BTC dust.  I know that the worst may be yet to come—maybe.  I am also damn well aware that I may have lost my coins at the bottom; and if I had dollars available, I would be grabbing back BTC in market-buys without looking at the price—panic-buying!—not worried that it may go to $22k or whatever later, not even worried if there may be a catastrophic bear’s-wet-dream crash to $10k or whatever later—and yes, in the theoretical worst case, I would ride it all the way down to zero, BTC or bust.  If I had sold bitcoins for dollars, cash in hand, #1 priority would be to get back as many of my bitcoins as I could!  If I had the dollars...

I'm not sure I understand this word you use... sold??? Wassat?
With my orders triggering at $27.9 and $26.9 I have now brought my cost average down to $30.5 so I just keep telling myself to be happy about down. Very odd kind of "happy" it is...

Last major bear market, I had unalloyed pleasure in the range of $3k–$8k.  It’s not an odd kind of “happy” at all.  I love bear markets, when my BTC is safely in my wallet where it belongs—and when I have some resources available, not just wiped out by playing stupid games with margin.

Multiple edits, because I threw that together while multitasking without adequate coffee; and I care about quality.

[rat03gopoh]

What do you suppose is the next support area?  (Asking for a friend.)

Analysis of my crystal ball will be 23-24k the next range. idk, whatever it's i just wanna get rid of my ubsdt(bullshitdolartoken) asap

[Wilhelm]

So funny to see YouTube go from we're doomed and crashing etc. To we're going to get rich ..... Dump incoming!!! in like 1 hour  

[Gachapin]

So funny to see YouTube go from we're doomed and crashing etc. To we're going to get rich ..... Dump incoming!!! in like 1 hour  

"Crypto" Youtube is fucking cancer.  Almost throw up when I see the dumb thumbnails...

[death_wish]

Youtube is fucking cancer.

FTFY.

[Franctoshi]

So funny to see YouTube go from we're doomed and crashing etc. To we're going to get rich ..... Dump incoming!!! in like 1 hour  

Some of the crypto enthusiast over there usually blow things out of proportion, Thereby dishing out wrong information.
Looking for some sort of hypes go to YouTube.
.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Youtube is fucking cancer.

FTFY.

some (old) movies, travel vids and documentaries are ok... but it also depends on the language/region..

And I never watch what is recommended by the algo.


I really enjoyed YT around 2010... a lot of trashy conspiracy stuff including some interesting facts here and there ...and (almost) no censorship...

[death_wish]

What do you suppose is the next support area?  (Asking for a friend.)

Analysis of my crystal ball will be 23-24k the next range. idk, whatever it's i just wanna get rid of my ubsdt(bullshitdolartoken) asap

Thanks for the crystal ball reading...

...well, if so, I’m dead.  Not literally, I think; but...  I hope that your crystal ball is very wrong.  If it’s not, enjoy your cheap discount bitcoins.

[dragonvslinux]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least.

I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021.

This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  

Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now.

The week looks bad though.

Hmmmm... Well it doesn't need to be 70% . It could be 69% or 68%.

Or it can be greater then 70%+.    

I was half assing it. Because the truth is that it is similar to a folding paper mechanic. You fold it until you can't, because the pressure is too great and you are just physically incapable of doing it and the paper will spring back.

But basically at around 65%+ we start to go into 'retarded territory' and that theoretical spring starts to coil. After 72% it's just a hot potato game, or a chair game, where the last one holding the cash keeps the crash.    

I like the analogy, at least the 70%+ theory for 2018 rang true, that of selling below $6K. Sure it came down to $3.2K, but unless selling was to buy lower, it was a stupid selling moment long-term. However in 2020 while price did drop 70%+, the "retarded territory" (of selling) you reference was more like @ 60+%, that of $5.5K or the 200 Week MA more specifically. A 70% drop I consider a bear market, even if short-lived.

Currently price is already down 60% @ $27.5K. 70% would be around $21K. While I still don't doubt price could come this low, it certainly doesn't "need to". Point is if price did bottom out at ~$25K, then it'd be because price dropped 83% in 2018, 73% in 2020 and the 63% in 2022.  The irony would therefore be statistical, that of crashes being less by %, after increases being less by % terms.

I feel like some people are overlooking what is happening here per cycle, that of a confirmed pattern of Bitcoin's recoveries from bear markets.

2011 could be considered a miracle (first recovery)
2014 could be considered a coincidence (second recovery)
2018 would be considered as a confirmed pattern (third recovery)
2022 would be what you'd expect from a pattern (fourth recovery)

It'd impossible to claim that 2022 needs to be correct as previous years, as since 2018 Bitcoin confirmed a pattern of recovery from bear markets cycles, so the risk is exponentially less.

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/0fAQhSRLQnM