Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hamza2424]

[1714237404]

1714237404

[1714237404]

1714237404

[1714237404]

1714237404

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Franctoshi]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

2k isn’t the issue long term and whiteout trader intentions…. The DIP is sweet enough to buy and sure to at least start buying…..

I did my purchases already on the way down to 25K. From now on I have 2 options. 1. I will continue DCA no matter the price. 2. I could use some of my retirement savings to buy more but for that the price should be lower than my average sell price. So far this is not the case, since I decided to sacrifice some fiat and buy higher than I sold. I can do this no more, however. My average sell price used to be 31K but last year I felt that it won't go lower, so I've bought back at 40K even at 50K some. As a result my average sell price fell to 21K.

It Not a bad strategy as you continue to DCA, it's hard to correctly predict the bottom of the market at this point in time in the market.
Bitcoin is really in the critical zone where things could take different different direction, therefore it is better you not Miss out the opportunity to still buy under $30k as you look up to the future price of BTC with your strategy in order to beat any outcome in the market, than waiting and not buy at all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).

Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't mada a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.

Here's the relevant polar plot (indicating the point the spiral untangles):



When I have some free, time I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for the price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

Here's an idea:
Try representing 360deg as time between halvings. For the next halving use the projected date.  This should sync and scale the graphs and might give some insight...

[shahzadafzal]

Blame it on pandemic.
Or War in Ukraine or Afghanistan or whatever… just don’t fix it.


https://twitter.com/byheatherlong/status/1535245905045209090?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Snowden is a Zcrap insider.

The “trusted setup” is gone in Halo2—a

Leave the shitcoin shilling to another thread.

Strong disagree, this is one of the best and most important and relevant topics in my humble opinion , BTC topics, and that is what we are essentially talking about here... that I have seen in this thread in a long long time.

Very much enjoying it


Hats off to death_wish...  keep it coming.


Just my point of view

[somac.]

Bitcoin dominance going up quickly now, 47.5% on coinmarketcap.

Shitcoins being shitcoins again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Looking for the monthly accumulation/distribution to bottom out and reverse (turn up from in the red zone) , which should be roughly the bottom WHEN that happens (it is not happening atm as you can see on chart)


Monthly


SLUT

[Gachapin]

...seems the bottom is in...




https://twitter.com/nihkalowz/status/1535876453262233601?cxt=HHwWgsCo-eXfw9AqAAAA

[empowering]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

[somac.]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

At some point those longs will be right.

[empowering]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

At some point those longs will be right.

.....well, at least the ones that manage to not get liquidated

[aysg76]

So what are your views about the decentralised web Jack is bringing up with Web 5.0 which will change everything and being bitcoin maximalist excites me about this 

[Gachapin]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."



https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

So what are your views about the decentralised web Jack is bringing up with Web 5.0 which will change everything and being bitcoin maximalist excites me about this  

Not studied it properly yet.... however, what took them so long?  about time we see more being built on/use being made of the BTC network.


As for the maximalist thing, meh, does not impress me....  we need more interoperability/composability and innovation across the board. I do not mind who does it, who builds what upon what, as long as it works (or will work eventually) and is useful.



The name is funny, web5...  lol


Also.... it is hardly a unique, new innovation , I mean it is for BTC, great about time, but, ermmm, yeah, Jack & co didn't "invent" this concept... they are just implementing it using BTC, which is great.


On the negative side.... it is Jack, a person I have deep rooted reservations about given his track record/twitters track record, and their behaviour at Twitter when he was leading the charge there.  I mean, the very last straw for me was the narrative control/censorship/blocking of people/topics etc, based on clear political bias. Banning Trump, the Hunter laptop story and on and on and on. Pure scum, and Jack defended that shit repeatedly, I do not trust him, nor his judgement....  

  

[empowering]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."



https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089

lol.


I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated.  It will be a good thing IMO.