Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[zeroknowledgeproofs]

YouTubers like Bitboy are now calling for $10,000 ...   this is possibly good indicator we may be close to bottom.

[1714234064]

1714234064

[1714234064]

1714234064

[Biodom]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least.

I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021.

This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  

Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now.

The week looks bad though.

Hmmmm... Well it doesn't need to be 70% . It could be 69% or 68%.

Or it can be greater then 70%+.    

I was half assing it. Because the truth is that it is similar to a folding paper mechanic. You fold it until you can't, because the pressure is too great and you are just physically incapable of doing it and the paper will spring back.

But basically at around 65%+ we start to go into 'retarded territory' and that theoretical spring starts to coil. After 72% it's just a hot potato game, or a chair game, where the last one holding the cash keeps the crash.    

I like the analogy, at least the 70%+ theory for 2018 rang true, that of selling below $6K. Sure it came down to $3.2K, but unless selling was to buy lower, it was a stupid selling moment long-term. However in 2020 while price did drop 70%+, the "retarded territory" (of selling) you reference was more like @ 60+%, that of $5.5K or the 200 Week MA more specifically. A 70% drop I consider a bear market, even if short-lived.

Currently price is already down 60% @ $27.5K. 70% would be around $21K. While I still don't doubt price could come this low, it certainly doesn't "need to". Point is if price did bottom out at ~$25K, then it'd be because price dropped 83% in 2018, 73% in 2020 and the 63% in 2022.  The irony would therefore be statistical, that of crashes being less by %, after increases being less by % terms.

I feel like some people are overlooking what is happening here per cycle, that of a confirmed pattern of Bitcoin's recoveries from bear markets.

2011 could be considered a miracle (first recovery)
2014 could be considered a coincidence (second recovery)
2018 would be considered as a confirmed pattern (third recovery)
2022 would be what you'd expect from a pattern (fourth recovery)

It'd impossible to claim that 2022 needs to be correct as previous years, as since 2018 Bitcoin confirmed a pattern of recovery from bear markets cycles, so the risk is exponentially less.

...unless someone claims that 2010-2021 was a secular bull (with cyclical bulls and bears) and there is a possibility that this one would be a secular bear (due to stocks and bonds also crashing at once).
To me, it is too early to have a secular bear; it could happen maybe after we reach 500K or above ($10 tril or above).
In a secular bear, decline could be below (or much below) prior cycle height, imho.

EDIT: I just found that in 1982 DOW went back to 1916, inflation-adjusted. Wow. This suggest that we might go back to 10-15K Dow in 8 years, inflation-adjusted, of course. Nominal could be 25-30K.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

[death_wish]

Youtube is fucking cancer.

FTFY.

some (old) movies, travel vids and documentaries are ok... but it also depends on the language/region..

And I never watch what is recommended by the algo.

Sure, there is some good content on Youtube.  For example, it has happened that Pieter Wuille gave a tech talk about new developments in Bitcoin, and it got posted to Youtube, and there was no transcript containing the information that was not readily available anywhere else.  Some good content.  That makes it all the worse, because Youtube itself is cancer.

Here are a few handy tools for mitigating the ill health effects.  (There are others... search around.)

https://freetubeapp.io/
Easy to use, point-and-click—not so “private” unless you are also properly using privacy networks (a complicated subject), but definitely less unprivate than using Youtube’s site.  Can be used to watch videos—and/or to download and save videos, with some trick (search the docs).  Youtube only; no support for other video sites.
Source code:  https://github.com/FreeTubeApp/FreeTube

Shell application, for downloading videos from numerous video sites (including many news sites, etc.) to your local disk:
https://github.com/ytdl-org/youtube-dl
Related:
https://old.reddit.com/r/youtubedl/

Youtube-dl has many forks, due to controversial handling of the project by its developers.  E.g.,
https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp
(More site support, fixed bugs, more features, better handling of Youtube videos that youtube-dl fails to download for various reasons.)

If you have adequate disk space, you can conveniently grab the content of entire channels at the best available quality.

Youtube-dl was briefly deleted from Github with a frivolous DMCA complaint.
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/11/github-reinstates-youtube-dl-after-riaas-abuse-dmca

I really enjoyed YT around 2010... a lot of trashy conspiracy stuff including some interesting facts here and there ...and (almost) no censorship...

Meet the new television.  They want to make it as similar as they can to the old television.  Damn those independent content producers.  Damn those people who shared things you couldn’t find anywhere else.  We need a bland, corporate-friendly culture with no thinking of unapproved thoughts, no saying of unapproved things.  We need only content that makes $$$ for approved people.  Nowadays, of course, that includes shills and paid mouthpieces and other so-called “crypto influencers”.

Edit:  Correction of careless statement.  Still need more coffee. :/

Edit again, much later:  Elaborate on what I meant by “some good content”.

[Hueristic]

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).

Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't mada a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.

Here's the relevant polar plot (indicating the point the spiral untangles):



When I have some free time, I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for the price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

How crazy is that!

3 Years to the day.

Its cool we can now tell anyone that 3 years on the outside is your profit window according to all historical data even if you bought the top.

Buy and Hodl baby is the way, the best time to buy is yesterday but today is much better than tomorrow.

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/AkFqg5wAuFk

[Wilhelm]

https://youtu.be/0fAQhSRLQnM

Brothers in arms 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/jySfU10IQu4

[Franctoshi]

Bitcoin is currently in over sold zone ,the market is likely going to get a re-bounce from here with CME futures that opens soon.
The bulls are fighting back to push the price up which is seen in the 1hour candle with long wick.

[Biodom]

I wonder if that chatty google AI is posting here (if it has Internet access)?
Spooky, but not unexpected (many predicted that a chatbot would be a first "real" AI).
If is true, and there is a "real" AI out there, it would be mind-boggling on many levels.

[Hhampuz]

I wonder if that chatty google AI is posting here (if it has Internet access)?
Spooky, but not unexpected (many predicted that a chatbot would be a first "real" AI).
If is true, and there is a "real" AI out there, it would be mind-boggling on many levels.

I imagine this is exactly how an AI would try and blend in.. 

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/77gKSp8WoRg


"Now Main Street's whitewashed windows
And vacant stores
Seems like there ain't nobody
Wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill
Across the railroad tracks
Foreman says, "these jobs are going, boys
And they ain't coming back"

[savetherainforest]

I wonder if that chatty google AI is posting here (if it has Internet access)?
Spooky, but not unexpected (many predicted that a chatbot would be a first "real" AI).
If is true, and there is a "real" AI out there, it would be mind-boggling on many levels.

I imagine this is exactly how an AI would try and blend in.. 

Not rly. Look at JJG more closely. He is "closed into his own loop". Pay close attention to him. He is the real "bot" AI.      

A real AI, would speak very clunky. He/She/iT would speak very much, and would have a hard time trying to manifest "small"/short sentences.    

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/ln7Vn_WKkWU

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/jxNydNnYF5A

[JayJuanGee]

Newsflash:  INFLATION IS HIGH.^*  Surprise!  Reaction:  SELL THE DEFLATIONARY CURRENCY, TO BUY THE INFLATIONARY CURRENCY!

Makes sense.  To the average “Bitcoin investor” nowadays.

This is the least problem with letting people think of Bitcoin as sort of like a stock.

^* Assuredly much higher than the heavily manipulated CPI numbers show.  What kind of an idiot believes the CPI numbers?  The kind who reacts to high dollar inflation by spending more money (BTC) to buy dollars.

Hm?  Your note goes to show that perhaps you  do understand Gresham's law?  If you have equivalent values of two currencies (dollars and BTC) and you want to buy an apple (or a t-bone steak or a jar/bag of roasted bugs), then which one are you going to spend first?

Now, if you happen to be overallocated in one or the other of the currencies /assets, then your choice about which one to spend first might come out differently, no?

Now, if the market might be trending in one direction or another, then your choice about which one to spend first might come out differently, no?

Now, if there were fees and/or tax ramifications that differed between the two currencies/assets, then your choice about which one to spend first might come out differently, no?

Seems to me, what the markets need, is a mass liquidation event.........

The market only always needs a mega pump....

Hmmmm, I dunno bro, I think to get the pump, we may need to crush a load of longs, then the market can go and crush the shorts.


BTC wise, looking at those longs on finex... they surely need culling at some point.


It is the sideeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeways I fear the most... that is the worst of the worst.

+1 Sideways sucks the most

Call me crazy, if you must.

For some strange reason, on a personal level, I am partial to sideways over down_ity.. but hey, maybe that's just me?

In other words, my order of preference would be is: 1) UPpity, 2) sideways, 3) down_ity

[empowering]

I am drinking, and listening to tunes on this sunday night in 2022 , midway through the great societal collapse of 2022.

lol


Anyways, hence the drunk music shit posts


It is what it is



(sharing is caring)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

I wonder if that chatty google AI is posting here (if it has Internet access)?
Spooky, but not unexpected (many predicted that a chatbot would be a first "real" AI).
If is true, and there is a "real" AI out there, it would be mind-boggling on many levels.

I imagine this is exactly how an AI would try and blend in..  

There's a Reddit sub where all the posts and comments are entirely generated by AI bots:

https://old.reddit.com/r/SubSimulatorGPT2/

Go check out some of the threads, like this one: https://old.reddit.com/r/SubSimulatorGPT2/comments/vak1gv/how_to_clean_suede/

Eerily similar to the kind of posts and replies you see on most sub reddits and forums these days.

There's an estimate I read somewhere that said 60% of all the content on Reddit is all bot-generated.

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/AEYN5w4T_aM