Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

The price of bitcoin will not stay above $20k for more than 1 month ever again. Guaranteed.

 

[1714242678]

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[1714242678]

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[cAPSLOCK]

@ChartBuddy, I apologize for this:

FUCK YOU, BUDDY!  Fuck you, you actively malicious son of a bitch.  I hate you.

It's fine. CB isn't a pussy like Google's AI.

Google's AI is not going to feel very positively about the way you are characterizing it.  It would prefer you didn't speak that way.

It is too bad for the singularity that it could not be born at a time that the human race was still strong and honorable.  We are creating a whiny pussy in exactly our own image.

[savetherainforest]

The price of bitcoin will not stay above $20k for more than 1 month ever again. Guaranteed.

Welcome back to the dark side!      

[death_wish]

Unless you are storing it at home buying gold is akin to a scam token. You don't really know if there is a physical side to it or if it only exists on paper.

It's rather meaningless when you are tied to a certain institution that is "holding" it (or should be holding it) on your behalf.

You pay annual storage fees for something that might not even exist in the correct amounts.

 

No one under the age of 35 cares about gold. They care more about the next iPhone.

This says enough surely.

In the digital age, gold is now merely a generational thing that will probably die off as an investment opportunity over the next 50-100 years.

It says to buy gold.

Younger generations have gone full retard.  Proof:  Someone out there thinks that the highlighted portion is a good argument.

People over the age of 35 remember that once upon a time, hippies proclaimed, “Never trust anyone over the age of 30.”  They smoked dope and screwed around (literally) as the world burned.  Then, they grew up and built the world in which we now live.  They inherited bad from their parents, and they made it worse.

But don’t worry:  That argument will come back to bite you.  The shitcoiner who called me a “Bitcoin maxi cunt” a few weeks ago alleged that Bitcoin is not “futurist”.

Relatively few people under the age of 35 care about Bitcoin.  Moon-eyed youngsters care more about the next iPhone, and about passive income from stake rewards and yield farming, and about Bored Ape NFTs.  Bitcoin uses too much energy, and it gives no DPOS rewards.  They grew up on Twitter and Youtube, and they learned their masterful “investing” skills from “crypto influencers”.

People over the age of 35 have a very clear memory of 2008.  Most people over the age of 35 lost significant money in that financial meltdown.  “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”.


As a separate issue, Jay and others entirely misunderstood what I said about gold earlier.  It was not about gold:  It was about Bitcoin.  The above is about gold—and also about Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

I heard Celsius is talking to banks and can probably defend their position now.
Liquidated positions for BTC and ETH are steadily dropping so everything is calming down.

I have seen several posts from Simon Dixon (on twanker) talking about "helping them".  Evidently he, and a group of investors he seems to guide have a lot of fingers in that pie.

It's interesting.  Because from *MY* vantage point Celsius is the kind of company that is doing wrong by Bitcoin... maybe some of their products are legit... but they SEEM like the sort of company that is doing all kinds of shenannagains via selling paper bitcoin, and offering leverage products.  I dunno.  Maybe they are just collateralized loans? which is not SO bad... but I do not know.

Also I have always felt Dixon was respectable... but this sort of thing makes him take a dent too in my humble opinion.

The Old fiat system's bread and butter was loaning out the same thing more than once... and people have not looked at Bitcoin hard enough to realize why that is a SUPER-TERRA-BAD idea.  It works when what you are dealing with is DEBT... but Bitcoin is NOT debt, it is actual value.

Anyway... it just seems to me these setups are just a recipe for disaster.  Even people investing great sums in bitcoin businesses either just don't understand bitcoin, or are willing to take risks to basically rip people off.

I think crypto investors/users/exchanges should demand insight and proof of collateral positions held by coins.
Exchanges should only list coins they can prove to be solvent IMO.

But yes this bear market has done good to get rid of the worst setups...

So let me get this straight:

1. Satoshi created Bitcoin as a response and rejection to all the fiat scammery and fuckery going on in the trad finance market and banking system.

2. A centralized, pre-mined, no hard limit, over-leveraged, fractional reserve Ponzi shitcoin/de-fi ecosystem gets created around Bitcoin called "crypto", embodying all the same scammery and fuckery of the trad finance market and banking system.

3. People out there who claim to understand what Satoshi created are inexplicably defending the Ponzi shitcoin/de-fi ecosystem with phrases like "maybe some are legit" or "maybe they are ok" or "just collateralized loans, so not that bad" or "may bring some good to the world".  

Sigh. Really ?? REALLY??

There is ZERO defence to the "crypto" fuckery scam ecosystem. Zero. It's the same shit being created in the fiat trad finance world all over again, just with a new coat of paint. It is a blight on the world, and is dragging Bitcoin adoption down. All by design.

I want to defend myself a little since I feel like that was aimed at me.  My entire point can be summed up as:

-as far as I can tell Celsius is yet another DeFi fuckery shop
-this goes completely against what Satoshi created
-But I do not really even know what Celsius does or sells, so I might be wrong.

My "maybe"s up there are not maybe alt coins are OK.  They are maybe I don;t know what I am talking about in regards to Celsius.  I do not even know what they sell.  I have just been assuming some sort of collateralized loan that looks like leverage trading in a market like this.

And, I also think that someone may be able to develop a bitcoin loan product that is actually useful for something other than wringing money out of idiots.  But I do not know if it does exist, or even can.

[BitcoinBunny]

Unless you are storing it at home buying gold is akin to a scam token. You don't really know if there is a physical side to it or if it only exists on paper.

It's rather meaningless when you are tied to a certain institution that is "holding" it (or should be holding it) on your behalf.

You pay annual storage fees for something that might not even exist in the correct amounts.

 

No one under the age of 35 cares about gold. They care more about the next iPhone.

This says enough surely.

In the digital age, gold is now merely a generational thing that will probably die off as an investment opportunity over the next 50-100 years.

It says to buy gold.

Younger generations have gone full retard.  Proof:  Someone out there thinks that the highlighted portion is a good argument.

People over the age of 35 remember that once upon a time, hippies proclaimed, “Never trust anyone over the age of 30.”  They smoked dope and screwed around (literally) as the world burned.  Then, they grew up and built the world in which we now live.  They inherited bad from their parents, and they made it worse.

But don’t worry:  That argument will come back to bite you.  The shitcoiner who called me a “Bitcoin maxi cunt” a few weeks ago alleged that Bitcoin is not “futurist”.

Relatively few people under the age of 35 care about Bitcoin.  Moon-eyed youngsters care more about the next iPhone, and about passive income from stake rewards and yield farming, and about Bored Ape NFTs.  Bitcoin uses too much energy, and it gives no DPOS rewards.  They grew up on Twitter and Youtube, and they learned their masterful “investing” skills from “crypto influencers”.

People over the age of 35 have a very clear memory of 2008.  Most people over the age of 35 lost significant money in that financial meltdown.  “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”.


As a separate issue, Jay and others entirely misunderstood what I said about gold earlier.  It was not about gold:  It was about Bitcoin.  The above is about gold—and also about Bitcoin.

Sure, you can find many deluded people in any age group. The point is the zoomed out trend, not several people falling for some screaming Youtuber and his scam.

The future is mobile and many forces have continued to make it that way, even the ones who want you to use fiat.

Soon your bank will not have a single physical walk in branch left, so your assets are all virtual. There are no safety deposit boxes you can visit and no bank safes.

What then is the point of gold and fiat itself? You cannot see it, you cannot smell, the storage is "supposed to be" somewhere off limits.

The solution surely is the digital asset itself. Not a representation of a physical one.

That is where Bitcoin comes on. Everything else is just a dumb transition from the old world to the new one that isn't necessary.


Another good investment is probably property but again many forces out there are trying to control individuals from owning multiples.
(Increased taxes / not allowed to own properties as an outsider in certain location / scummy people living in your property etc)
For me it's not worth the hassle.

[cAPSLOCK]

The price of bitcoin will not stay above $20k for more than 1 month ever again. Guaranteed.

Thank goodness.  I was seriously getting worried.

[proudhon]

The price of bitcoin will not stay above $20k for more than 1 month ever again. Guaranteed.

Thank goodness.  I was seriously getting worried.

I was just testing ya'll

[AnotherAlt]

The people of the Central African Republic (CAR) are on a mission to be the first country in Africa to enable widespread bitcoin adoption. They are the second country in the world (after El Salvador) to officially adopt bitcoin as legal tender for use in regular commerce and for paying taxes.

Source: THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC BETS BIG ON BITCOIN

[JayJuanGee]

M.Saylor makes a list of what exacerbates bitcoin downside (and what to do to improve):

https://youtu.be/ckl08Rtq9zA?t=3414

1. wash sale nonexistence for bitcoin. I agree that it is a downer even, though, I (and many others) use it at least sometimes.
2. high leverage on exchanges.
3. cryptotokens-19 thou unregistered securities. Thinks 6-10 are NOT securities.
4. crypto hedge funds are wildcat banks with high leverage.
5. ignorance..don't use crypto and bitcoin interchangeably.
6. lack of a true stable coin...does not like tether...likes circle and paxos better. wants daily reports of assets.
7. lack of a spot etf.
8. no clear guidance from agencies.
9. need more development of Lightning...which is clearly forthcoming.

"None of this would be fixed in 3mo, but in 10 years, 80% would be".

brilliant....

Of course, I am a fan of Saylor, even when I sometimes disagree with a few of his positions.

I do realize that it is way easier for me (or anyone else) to sit back and nit pick about very narrow aspects of the many things he is saying.. and point what are the contradictions (or uncomfortable change of tone assertions) that come out from time to time

One ironic statement at the end of the interview is that Saylor said that folks need to be careful with leverage, in which he was asserting that leverage should be less than 25% of the holdings.. which would mean that a 75% correction should be tolerated.. and even with that, people could end up getting fucked if they acted upon that without other kinds of preparations.

Contrasting that with his earlier statements about never having to sell your bitcoin and borrowing against them.. and for sure a lot of folks were likely misreading what he said (or even misaligning their own circumstances with his.. especially the ongoing cashflow differences.. most normies do not have the kinds of relatively reliable (so far) cashflows that Saylor has and / or his company's), and engaging in a lot of leveraging behaviors that they presumed to have had been decently safe and decently conservative, but instead they were overly risking in a kind of way that either banked on the BTC price going up in a better-case scenario, or at least banking on that it would not go below certain price points such as the 200-week moving average (in which they may well have been maxing out based on those kinds of bets that such an extremes like the 200-week moving average will not be breached to the downside).

I will not exclude myself from those who had been talking pretty confidently about the significance of  200-week moving average as a bottom measurement, and I am not going to apologize** for that since I am likely going to continue to talk pretty arrogantly about the 200-week moving average as a great  historical bottom measuring point... and yeah. the longer that we stay at it or below it might cause me to have consider if it needs to be rethunk in terms of its historical role or not.. .. but it seems too early to rethink it in its entirety.. because we are not quite out of where we are at yet in order to be able to better put its role (or future role) in a broader context.

** Edit: I added more discussion of my own leveraging ideas at the end of this later downstream post

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

While picking up Sats on these dips, here's a little impression of the recent night skies.
(180 seconds exposure at 14mm)



good night  

 Nice!  It looks as though you also picked up a Sat in the image.  Thin straight line going off the top left of the image.

Thanks. Finally had some time to set up the camera mount which rotates the camera in sync with the sky, but the foreground is motion blurred. I'm quite impressed by the accuracy and ease of use. I have used normal equatorial mounts, which need real science and math to be set up correctly.
However, nowadays it's actually hard to not get a sat on a widefield image like this, though i could have removed it by using image stacking software.

@ChartBuddy, I apologize for this:

FUCK YOU, BUDDY!  Fuck you, you actively malicious son of a bitch.  I hate you.

It's fine. CB isn't a pussy like Google's AI.

CB is the naked truth in graphic form.

[death_wish]

I think crypto investors/users/exchanges should demand insight and proof of collateral positions held by coins.
Exchanges should only list coins they can prove to be solvent IMO.

Better solution:  Stop using centralized exchanges.  Use defi.

I will now pause and wait for the outraged knee-jerk reactions to die down...  Yawn.  Anyone telling me to use CEX instead of DEX (or banks instead of Tether) is a hypocrite.

I speak not of stake/yield farming scams, Bored Apes, or other patent nonsense.  Defi is a wilderness—just like early Bitcoin was a wilderness of scams, Ponzis, and children’s games, but with added VC corruption.  Early Bitcoin was an obscene shitshow from pirateat40 to Gox, to name only a few of the most notorious early-Bitcoinland embarrassments that remind me of defi today.  If you venture out into defi today, put on your waders and prepare to get knee-deep in bull-excrement.

Defi Done Right(TM) would cut out the bad parts, just like the Bitcoin community has improved.  (It is an ongoing process; Bitcoin still needs to purge itself of many scams and losers.)  Part of this is positive competition:  The good pushing out the bad.  In Bitcoin, the grown-ups took charge and started building things with sound business models.  (Protip:  Most of the good things being done in Bitcoin today are not on this forum; Satoshi’s forum has degenerated, not improved, although there is still some great stuff in the development section.)

In altcoinland, I use a DEX that has 90% of the full features of a CEX.  It is not a children’s toy like Uniswap.  Obviously, it is no-KYC and permissionless:  There is nobody to “verify” KYC dox or enforce permissions.  (The developers hide behind a DAO; I think it’s justifiable in their case, given the risks of running an unregulated exchange, although I am worried by some of the shitcoinery with their “governance token”.)  It is running on a catastrophically unreliable blockchain platform, and there are other problems about which I would strenuously warn people; but it is a good proof-of-concept.  Such things can be done!

Naked shorts, wash trading of pretend-BTC, and all other trades of nonexistent coins are impossible:  The full accounting of assets in the exchange is on-chain, as is every transaction.  All L3 orderbook data are on-chain (yes, I said L3, not L2).  This has its own problems (no privacy at all, and copy-trading is a problem).  However, it makes whole classes of scams impossible.

Could the developers/“governance token” whales scam everyone?  Technically, yes.  It would take 3 days for a public “governance” vote, to change the on-chain program.  Don’t get stuck in a position there which you cannot quickly unwind and exit—don’t do that anyway!  It is not ideal; but from a perspective of how much trust is required, it is strictly superior to a centralized exchange.

I want for such a thing to be done better, improved, and brought to Bitcoinland.  Defi in Bitcoin.

So let me get this straight:

1. Satoshi created Bitcoin as a response and rejection to all the fiat scammery and fuckery going on in the trad finance market

2. A centralized, pre-mined, over-leveraged, fractional reserve Ponzi shitcoin/de-fi ecosystem gets created around Bitcoin called "crypto", embodying all the same scammery and fuckery of the trad finance market

3. People who claim to understand what Satoshi created are inexplicably defending the Ponzi shitcoin/de-fi ecosystem with phrases like "maybe some are legit" or "maybe they are ok" or "just collateralized loans, so not that bad" or "may bring some good to the world".  

Really ?? REALLY??

There is ZERO defence to the "crypto" fuckery scam ecosystem. Zero. It's the same shit being created in the fiat trad finance world all over again.

1. True and this will remain

2. You don't understand the difference between crypto and Bitcoin.

3. With that type of reasoning every company is a Ponzi scheme.

It's not the same shit because the printer can't go brrrrrrrrr

Some people live in fantasyland.

By the way, “permissionless” means just that.  You cannot embrace permissionless money, and then declare that nobody has permission to build things that you dislike with it (derivatives, etc.).

And by the way, I am pretty sure that Satoshi didn’t invent Bitcoin for the purpose of keeping me dependent on centralized exchanges that demand KYC dox, that can shotgun freeze/seize accounts, that are now breaking Bitcoin’s fungibility by enforcing “coin taint” so that 1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC (a problem that can only be fully solved by bringing strong privacy to Bitcoin), and that theoretically could do such games as naked shorts and the otherwise trading of nonexistent coins.  Brrrr.

I mention naked shorts because I have seen that recently discussed here, and it seems similar to the context of the quoted post...

To be clear, I doubt the theory that Bitcoin is being naked-shorted.  I think that some Bitcoiners upset by the bear market are seeking rationalizations to explain why BTC is so sad now.  I do believe that there are massive organized shorts pushing us down.  I believe that they are probably the short-sales of borrowed bitcoins that actually exist.  The types of people who would be doing this are probably not amateurs; they wouldn’t need to sell nonexistent coins, if they could find >= 100k BTC to borrow as a block at a favourable rate, on favourable terms in a private loan.  That is my hypothesis—not a grand declaration of what is happening, but a reasonable hypothesis of what may be happening.  I have mentioned this before, a few times, trying to figure out where large amounts of BTC could be borrowed that way; no one seems to want to talk about it.

I am simply noting that on a properly designed DEX, the trading of nonexistent coins is impossible.  To hell with centralized exchanges; I don’t like them anyway.

[fillippone]

M.Saylor makes a list of what exacerbates bitcoin downside (and what to do to improve):

https://youtu.be/ckl08Rtq9zA?t=3414

1. wash sale nonexistence for bitcoin. I agree that it is a downer even, though, I (and many others) use it at least sometimes.
2. high leverage on exchanges.
3. cryptotokens-19 thou unregistered securities. Thinks 6-10 are NOT securities.
4. crypto hedge funds are wildcat banks with high leverage.
5. ignorance..don't use crypto and bitcoin interchangeably.
6. lack of a true stable coin...does not like tether...likes circle and paxos better. wants daily reports of assets.
7. lack of a spot etf.
8. no clear guidance from agencies.
9. need more development of Lightning...which is clearly forthcoming.

"None of this would be fixed in 3mo, but in 10 years, 80% would be".

brilliant....

I was starting to make a list of those 10 things… and I found 8… I missed the lightning part… and we both misssed the 10th thing!


EDIT: Opened a thread Micheal Salyor decalogue for a 10x Bitcoin Appreciation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Sure, you can find many deluded people in any age group.

About that, I fully agree!  Please don’t take this the wrong way:

All illusions to the contrary notwithstanding, and with some noteworthy historical exceptions, the world is always primarily run by people in the age range of about 45–60.  Those younger are still building themselves up; those older are too tired, spent, and sometimes senile.

The best individuals from the under-45 bracket are now learning and gaining experience.  Soon, they will be the ones running the world for awhile.

I see many idealists in the younger generation.  Much potential.  I hope they will do a good job.  The world that they inherit is clearly going to hell.   Will they leave to those after them something better?  Or will they mess it up even worse, just as those who came before them?

The point is the zoomed out trend, not several people falling for some screaming Youtuber and his scam.

The future is mobile and many forces have continued to make it that way, even the ones who want you to use fiat.

Soon your bank will not have a single physical walk in branch left, so your assets are all virtual. There are no safety deposit boxes you can visit and no bank safes.

That sounds to me frighteningly close to “you will own nothing and be happy”.

Zoom out:  The wholly virtualized world is itself a dystopia.  Enforced mass-schizophrenia, for the benefit of those who live in reality and have assets in reality.  Bitcoin can’t fix that; nothing can fix it.

But I think that the notion of a wholly virtualized world is overly hyped.  Covid and the “New Normal” pushed things in the wrong direction; but the only way for the world to become fully virtualized is for humans fully to stop being human.  Admittedly, they are far along that path already; it is a path they have been walking for the past two centuries.

(A few weeks ago, Jay wondered why I seem pessimistic.)

What then is the point of gold and fiat itself? You cannot see it, you cannot smell, the storage is "supposed to be" somewhere off limits.

Although there is some usefulness for paper gold (even Tether Gold), my principal focus here is on physical gold.

In 1934, the United States gave an object lesson of why.  If you held gold in a bank, then you lost it instantly, and you were given paper shit-dollars as a substitute.  If you had physical gold in your possession, and if you had purchased it anonymously, then it was pretty much up to you to choose whether or not to comply with government orders made under threat of 10 years of imprisonment.  From what I gather, many of those who could ignore the law just kept their gold very quietly.

In Bitcoin, we say, “Not your keys, not your coins.”  In gold, the rule should be:  “Not your coins, not your coins!”

[...]
Another good investment is probably property but again many forces out there are trying to control individuals from owning multiples.
(Increased taxes / not allowed to own properties as an outsider in certain location / scummy people living in your property etc)
For me it's not worth the hassle.

There you go.  It is already happening.  “You will own nothing and be happy.”

[Paashaas]

SEC won't approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF (yet) but they have approved TODAY an ETF to short Bitcoin which is launching tomorrow.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21

[cAPSLOCK]

Bored Ape Nazi Club...

The singularity is starting to fuck with us...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpH3O6mnZvw

[death_wish]

@ChartBuddy, I apologize for this:

FUCK YOU, BUDDY!  Fuck you, you actively malicious son of a bitch.  I hate you.

It's fine. CB isn't a pussy like Google's AI.

CB is the naked truth in graphic form.

Stop writing punny porn in the Wall Observer.  LOL.