Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket...

Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away.

I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome.

I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help.

[1714232882]

1714232882

[1714232882]

1714232882

[ivomm]

I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well.

Just one sad detail which describes the current situation. Blockfi was hoping for GBTC to convert to ETF so they could withdraw thousands BTCitcoins and sell them without the 30% discount, i. e. at the real prices. In other words, we hoped for a spot ETF to attract new investors, but instead those 640K BTCictoins would be dumped immediately after the conversion! So, instead of bullish news this turns out to be a major bearish news. Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's. And if one month of panic caused this crash to 17K, I can't imagine what will be the price after 6 months, when all these ponzis became insolvent and the investors get only 1-10% of their investment. This is a major blow to BTCitcoin, and I'm starting to think that the price may fall below 15K or, God forbid, below 10K. Anyway, I'm not selling, only buying all the way down. This is really heartbreaking, and the prospect of having more coins than before doesn't make me so happy as I thought.  Let's hope that the worst is behind us and the market will survive the liquidations to come.

[Fatman3001]

GAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!

THE HUMANITY!!!!!!!!!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Fatman3001]

Hi there, Chartbuddy!

[somac.]

I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well.

Just one sad detail which describes the current situation. Blockfi was hoping for GBTC to convert to ETF so they could withdraw thousands BTCitcoins and sell them without the 30% discount, i. e. at the real prices. In other words, we hoped for a spot ETF to attract new investors, but instead those 640K BTCictoins would be dumped immediately after the conversion! So, instead of bullish news this turns out to be a major bearish news. Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's. And if one month of panic caused this crash to 17K, I can't imagine what will be the price after 6 months, when all these ponzis became insolvent and the investors get only 1-10% of their investment. This is a major blow to BTCitcoin, and I'm starting to think that the price may fall below 15K or, God forbid, below 10K. Anyway, I'm not selling, only buying all the way down. This is really heartbreaking, and the prospect of having more coins than before doesn't make me so happy as I thought.  Let's hope that the worst is behind us and the market will survive the liquidations to come.

Yep my major concern. However it's possible, this doesn't come to pass. Firstly depends on Otter being correct and secondly it's possible some kind of rescue package or buyout or something can be done for some of these companies. I wouldn't bet on that of course, but there is some hope, no matter how slim.

[El duderino_]

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket...

Have hear them same theory….

[Wilhelm]

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket...

Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away.

I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome.

I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help.

You are not wrong, however...

See the big picture here. The SEC approval paves the way for businesses to officially enter the Bitcoin realm.
Many of the biggest companies want to invest in Bitcoin and that means billions of $$$ having access to Bitcoin.

[death_wish]

 little mouse

&

little mouse

I got a notification through the telegram mention bot  

Too bad your TG bot was too... robotic to pick this up, Little Mouse:

“To a Mouse”

But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain
For promis’d joy.

I mindrusted some scraps of precious altcoins

[...]
In other words, it is definitionally impossible to mindrust a shitcoin..
[...]

If you want to mindrust, you better try harder..

 

Thanks.  It’s good to laugh.

The good news:  For the first time in over five months, I am debt-free!  And the sad remainder of my BTC is freed from the margin account.  For the first time in over five months, I am at zero risk of liquidation.

Well I will congratulate you about that, so you can get your butt in gear and start (or resume) stacking sats.

Best for me would be to spend less time on the forum, unless it is for moneymaking purposes.

If I had devoted every moment and ounce of effort that I have ever spent on this forum to making money, I would now be a whale.  That was a foolish investment choice for allocation of my most precious resource:  My limited lifetime.

Now, I can go back to my old self.

I am not sure if "we" would want that, unless you are able to guarantee that it will objectively better than the most recent one that we have been witnessing..

I did fine, until I did something that I had previously warned others not to do.

Yes, I have very little BTC left.  But it is a large proportion of my dollhouse-sized remaining finances.  For he who has little, a pauper’s scraps are precious as a king’s fortune.  

Rome was not built in a day, and presumptively, there were set backs from time to time.

Good thinking.

Let the market burn, as I frolic in the sunshine!

I think that we have already established that no coiners and low coiners have tendencies to be assholes in that kind of a way..

In March of 2020, I had much more BTC than I have now.  I had the same attitude.  (Insert list of previous crashes.)

But I am ideologically motivated to be in Bitcoin.  It is my primary, dominant motive—even if it conflicts with my financial interests.  That gives me a perspective different than most.

Therefore one of the likely strongest solutions from contributing towards mitigating your asshole tendencies is for you to get a meaningful and substantial stake in our lil precious..

I am not subject to your judgment or anyone else’s of whether or not I have sufficient BTC.  “...a meaningful and substantial stake...”  What is this, POS?

The “no skin in the game” argument applies to those who have significant wealth in fiat, stocks, etc.  Yes, someone who has a big portfolio but only 0.05 BTC can pretty much just fork off!

But you would call me “overinvested” in BTC.  Before you pretend to pass judgment on me or analyze my “tendencies”, please dump your stocks (I don’t have any), cut your central bank shitcoin holdings to the bare minimum needed for short-term living expenses (I live simply, and I have almost no money in the bank—though when I am in wealth-building mode, I like to gather up some Tethers, etc. when that’s advantageous for cashing out to BTC at opportune moments), and figure your personal net worth in BTC as a unit of account.

Even with less than 0.05 BTC, I am drastically “overinvested” in BTC as % of all the money and investment assets that I have.

I do have an incentive now to hope for BTC to stay low for awhile, so that I can obtain more of it—preferably, at least as much as I recently had.  That is no different in principle than WOers who are hoping for BTC to stay low until their next paychecks (or whatever), so they can DCA down.  It is quite different from nocoiners/ex-coiners who hope for BTC to fail.  And I have always enjoyed bear markets, even when I had much more BTC than now.  Divide the wheat from the chaff, give LTH the opportunity to accumulate more while there is blood in the streets.  My personal “greed and fear” index is wired to the opposite of most people’s.

so get out there dear trooper/soldier and get in the mode of stacking some sats.. stack a meaningful and substantial amount.. nothing whimpy like some other members... who will remain unnamed.. at least for the time being.    

That, in itself, is a damn fine idea.  For reasons quite other than “asshole tendencies”.

I have a sort of life focus on Bitcoin.  I want to have me some more of those bitcoins, instead of just watching others have more of them while I pray for Bitcoin to overthrow the corruption of the banking system.  Monetary ideology is unusual this way:  It is a type of idealism that is directly undermined by having too little greed.

In most ideologies, one can be quite credible (perhaps even more credible) being poor as a monk.  Not in Bitcoin.  For better or for worse.

I am gravely worried about Bitcoin, because I care about Bitcoin.  

You will care more if you get some stake... or at least increase your stake.

No.  It would apply for most people; you don’t know me.  Nonetheless, I absolutely should stack up some bitcoins.  For my own self-interest, not to meet your criteria or anyone else’s for “stake”.  Again, what is this POS type of talk?

A very large proportion of my investment/savings assets are in Bitcoin (and I am now awaiting favourable market conditions to liquidate some other things to Bitcoin—it would be shooting myself in the foot right now).  That puts my money where my mouth is.  I simply don’t have much money.

I damn should make myself some bitcoins, for my own sake and no one else’s.  Preferably, I should like to be rich—especially after all this!

This is an attack.  But that is an idealistic worry—cause for worse pessimism over the state of the world—

Don't fret or worry ur lil head about those kinds of matters.

Stay focused.

You might even need some lazer eyes... unless you had merely misplaced them from earlier.  Homer can help.. perhaps.. but only those who want to be helped.

hahahahaha

If I didn’t think of these kinds of matters, I would not have any BTC at all!  “Those kinds of matters” were the motive that first brought me to Bitcoin, and these matters will always keep me holding BTC no matter what.  I did NOT buy in to see “number go up”.  I learned about that after I already had BTC.  Once upon a time, I somehow managed to spent years on this forum blissfully avoiding Speculation, before I even learned that the Wall Observer existed (sorry, you are not as famous as you think).  I still have the same essential attitude, and I always will.

I don’t need laser eyes graphics or other memes, for my own personal use.

You might need a mentor because if left to your own devices, you seem to have a predisposition to devolve away from reasonableness and prudence...

Any volunteers?

Anyone want to mentor one stubborn fuck, aka D_W?  And some other names too, but "we" just refer to him as internet dog/cat.

Thanks, but I was doing just fine until I did something that I had previously warned others against.  Although I do highly respect the intelligence and the market instincts of some of the die-hard regulars here, I do not need a WO mentor.

I will do much better now, if/when I fork off and ignore WO so I can get some work done.  The market has been a perpetual distraction to me, since I have been forced to pay attention to my liquidation risk.  Now that I can ignore the distraction of short-term BTC price movements, I have good prospects to make money.

[somac.]

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket...

Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away.

I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome.

I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help.

You are not wrong, however...

See the big picture here. The SEC approval paves the way for businesses to officially enter the Bitcoin realm.
Many of the biggest companies want to invest in Bitcoin and that means billions of $$$ having access to Bitcoin.

That's providing the biggest companies still want to invest after what has just happened and also if they are willing to invest during a recession.

[serveria.com]

Excited…!!! Who else is coming?

Where's it being held, Jaywick Sands?

Man, if the dumpening goes on, Jaywick Sands will feel like Monte-Carlo  

[death_wish]

Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's.

I always despised the idea of an ETF, and I have always looked down on anyone who got greedily moon-eyed excited about prospects for that.

I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well.

Called it!  Well, I don’t deserve credit for this.  The situation succinctly summarized in four letters:

Somewhere last month, I saw an intelligent LUNA holder compare the Terra meltdown to LTCM.

Since highly intelligent Lunatics seem rare, it is possible that I was the only person present who understood the reference—or what it meant.

Credit where due.  He pretty much anticipated all of this.  The LTCM allusion was spot-on, a big ball of predictions summarized in four letters.

[death_wish]

Excited…!!! Who else is coming?

Bitcoin by its nature tends towards fixing the same problems that incited Occupy Wall Street.

It can do that, and grow as sound money, if it is not being fouled up with “WEN LAMBO” nonsense.

Perhaps that graphic is unintentionally appropriate.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.

[somac.]

The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.

+1 to that. But to be fair it is a weekend. Which is why they dumped in the first place.

[death_wish]

[...]

I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio.

Don't be too hard on them for doing that. For many this is the only way they can ever hope to own a home, their labor is no longer enough.

Thank you governments and CBs for putting people in this situation. You fucks.

That.  Moreover, some of us actually want money with freedom.

(Besides, anyone who holds stocks hedged with anything tied to “safe” U.S. Treasuries is in for a surprise whenever the petrodollar system finally implodes.  Next decade?  Next year?  Tomorrow?  Nobody knows, but the house of cards has only been built ever-higher for almost a half-century.  Whenever that hits, whether it hits you or your children, it will make that “diverse portfolio” look like diversifying your BTC to be balanced with some SHIB, some ICOs, some Bored Ape NFTs, etc.)

[milkshock100]

"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.
"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."

I don’t think costs of wrecking all relevant markets are worth propping
 up a Nazi regime

[Wilhelm]

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket...

Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away.

I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome.

I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help.

You are not wrong, however...

See the big picture here. The SEC approval paves the way for businesses to officially enter the Bitcoin realm.
Many of the biggest companies want to invest in Bitcoin and that means billions of $$$ having access to Bitcoin.

That's providing the biggest companies still want to invest after what has just happened and also if they are willing to invest during a recession.

Once the liquidations cease and all the rotten flesh is cut out of the system the healing will start...

Bitcoin is a better option than a savings account

[somac.]

[...]

I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio.

Don't be too hard on them for doing that. For many this is the only way they can ever hope to own a home, their labor is no longer enough.

Thank you governments and CBs for putting people in this situation. You fucks.

That.  Moreover, some of us actually want money with freedom.

(Besides, anyone who holds stocks hedged with anything tied to “safe” U.S. Treasuries is in for a surprise whenever the petrodollar system finally implodes.  Next decade?  Next year?  Tomorrow?  Nobody knows, but the house of cards has only been built ever-higher for almost a half-century.  Whenever that hits, whether it hits you or your children, it will make that “diverse portfolio” look like diversifying your BTC to be balanced with some SHIB, some ICOs, some Bored Ape NFTs, etc.)

Spot on, which is what BTC is all about and while I'll always own some (gold too) it's insurance. Just happens that sometimes this insurance makes you a lot of money.

Once the liquidations cease and all the rotten flesh is cut out of the system the healing will start...

Bitcoin is a better option than a savings account

Very true, and If people treated it as savings rather than a get rich quick scheme we wouldn't be in this mess.