I suppose in some sense, I don't want to get into specifics because we are in a public thread.. but surely sometimes some of the specifics can make a difference.. and anyone can take my suggestions or feedback or responses to issues however they like.. or ignore my comments too. if that seems the best way in which they might incorporate my ideas.
[...]
[...] if we are considering BTC investment strategies and things like (which seems to be an area frequently batted around in this thread) .. especially dollars/BTC since that is our OP topic. ...then sometimes there are ideas about DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing.. and there also may be ideas of portfolio management and liquidation..
When I first came to this thread with an unfixable problem, I explicitly sought your advice—in addition to trying to warn newbies “don’t wind up like this”, and frankly also just looking to vent.
I greatly appreciate the time and effort that you spent trying to help me find an impossible exit from a trap that was already closed.
Beyond that—I have told you that I think your investment strategies are mostly pretty good for most people, in most circumstances. As I’ve said, I have cribbed from the JayJuanGee book to advise nocoiners how to get into Bitcoin: Your approach to portfolio allocation, risk tolerance assessment, etc. is basically how financial advisors usually guide their clients. DCA, buying the dips, etc. is a reasonable way to avoid gambling on timing the market.
I suppose I just developed various techniques and discussion points over the years, and some of my techniques expanded because of bitcoin's seemingly unique nature. I did not really expect matters to go down this road, but maybe there is a kind of snowballing effect in my having ahd gotten more involved than expected in this asset class.
Quite apart from any of your price predictions (to which I give less credence), the guidance that you give to most people should work in usual circumstances.
I try not to give any predictions beyond probabilities of 50/50 - but surely sometimes I will lean in one direction or another, and surely, I
only recently established the thread in which I had tried to assign probabilities all the way up and all the way down the BTC prices, and tried to inject a timeline in there too...
So, there is a kind of learning as I go and hoping to improve. .and still kind of sticking to my lack of predictions while at the same time attempting to specialize in the criticizing of other members who assign high certainties to BTC prices in one direction or another and I tend to be more hostile towards down.. for reasons.. .. .; which also would include my sometimes desires to attack fellow members who from my point of view might overly with too much certainty to some kinds of BTC price dynamics.. while being a bit more lenient towards the UPPity callers.... but even the UPpity callers can become annoying sometimes too.. if they fail to back up what they are saying.. and maybe if they seem to be just making their UPpity posts to troll us.
Anyhow, from my own perspective, I feel that I try not to deviate too much from 50/50.. I mean usually I might deviate by 5% or so.. and if you see me deviating in my level of confidence to 10%, then hory sheit that would be a lot of confidence... I doubt deviating more than 10% - like saying 60%/40% (which really has a 20% difference) does not happen very often.. and probably when I start to get into those higher levels of certainty, then I am bound to be getting very close to being wrong by then.
But I have also said somewhere, it doesn’t work for me. My circumstances are not usual. For that reason, I have not requested your advice on how to rebuild my holding.
I don't give advice anyhow, even if it might seem like advice sometimes.. I am of the position that you gotta figure out your shit on your own... but in the end, if you give me some scenarios or some facts or some hypotheticals, I might plug them into some ways of attempting to deal with such situations to the extent that there are a sufficient quantity of facts with which to work.
I don’t want to discuss private specifics.
You don't need to discuss or provide any specifics, but if we are talking about hypotheticals or ideas, then sometimes it might be a good idea to make up some numbers in order that we can have something kind of concrete in which to ground our discussion, rather than just talking in abstract and vague references... also if you ask me a question about what is overinvesting, for example, and you provide me with some numbers, then I may well either use those numbers and/or plug in some new numbers if I do not feel that I have all the needed information in order to attempt to reasonably answer the question.. or at least address some of the issues that had been raised by what I thought was the question or issue..
I am not going to just agree with you in leading questions (or anyone else for that matter) in a yes or no manner what is or is not over investing.. unless I believe that I really understand the situation.. and surely I might even decide to give the opposite answer than you might expect if I get a sense that I am just being given some kind of leading and set up questions that might not even be perceived to be genuine at some point for a kind of gotcha set up rather than really attempting to grapple with genuine concerns.. and in regard to the overinvested topic that you raised you pretty much admitted that you were not even asking a question in which you really wanted the answer but instead you just wanted to hear yourself talk about abstract concepts while involving me in such a process.... even though you asked the question about what is overinvested several times
I doubt that any of us (including but not limited to yours truly) want to be cross-examined on some questions and being led to some predetermined answer or some kind of a gotcha set up situation.
As I already mentioned, in the end, you have to decide those kinds of balancing matters for yourself, even if I might attempt to provide some parameters of how I might approach a situation in accordance with the ways that I attempt to figure out what might be some factors that I tend to try to take into account or to attempt to balance out.
Now, if you prefer to talk in abstractions and vague concepts, then go ahead and do that if that is what you want to do, but if you are aiming to involve me in the conversation (or if I end up involving myself) then there might need to be something therein besides the abstract concepts.. so how the discussion plays out might well depend on the subject matter in terms of how many details might be needed from my own perspective (and I am in charge of my own perspective.. hahahahaha including but not limited to deciding whether to respond, how to respond, whether to ask questions or add my own details and/or to take a hostile or flippant responsive approach... or a non-responsive approach if that is chosen,
by me.. or by my AI or by my handlers).
I assure you that if I had any positive fiat cashflow usable for buying BTC that was independent of now-nonexistent assets that I futilely sacrificed trying to save my BTC, I would now be stacking every sat I could. Bitcoin is now on deep discount sale. Whether or not the bottom is yet in, I do not want to miss the Bitcoin discount sale—especially not when I just lost almost all my bitcoins! However, I cooked my own goose, these past few months—more than you know, worse than you realize. The details are private, and I have already revealed far too much financial information about myself.
We (royal this time) have already addressed this. I have already addressed it from the overinvesting angle, but the same factors would need to be considered in terms of figuring out how much to invest in a BTC accumulation approach.. that would potentially involve DCA, buying on dips and setting of various accumulation targets... Do we (royal perhaps?) need to go into any of those kinds of details?
If you have cashflow issues or even psychological trauma issues from your recent experiences in the BTC markets, then you gotta get that figured out on your end. If you are not in a position to invest anything into bitcoin because of no money and/or psychological trauma, then I am not sure what can be done through the forum (WO) discussions.
I have sought advice privately, from people who are competent to give such advice. The objective, cut-and-dry answer is that if BTC doesn’t remain at its current price levels for at least a little while, then I will be unavoidably screwed. Better hurry up and work on some new cashflow!
Sure.. There have been a lot of times in my life where I did not have very much cash available and I wanted to buy stuff or invest, but no money in dee pocket.. so sure in those kinds of situations, there may well be needs to focus on other things.. or getting cash or robbing a bank or whatever (I am not advising to break any laws.. so just get the amount that you need from under aunt Piggy's mattress.. she wouldn't notice anyhow).
By the way, that reminds me of a conversation that I had with my parents recently, and it is funny how memories fade, and some of my own character flaws seem to have been forgotten by some peeps.. Anyhow I went into some kinds of long stories about various thefts that I did as a kid, such as breaking into the neighbors house and eating frozen popsicles (I must have been around 4 or 5 years old), and stealing money from my parents money jar to buy candy at the store.. for what seemed to have been a more than a year of heisting when I was around 9 years old.. I listed some other incidents and recalled that I had been caught on several occasions. They remembered some of the incidents, but they came off as a lot more dismissive of a lot of it and seemed to not really remember anything even close to the amount of guilt that I was still feeling about some of that childhood conduct.
[Edited to add extra warning for newbies: My situation is overall worse than mindrust’s was, after he threw away his bitcoins. He sold the bottom, and Bitcoin immediately rose after he dumped; but he sold for cash, so he had cash in hand. He could have immediately re-bought something. He didn’t; that was his damnfool choice. In my case, Bitcoin went down after I lost my coins—and it is still below (on average, very far below) the price at which I lost them. However, my coins were sold by a robot to repay debt—to repay debt, and to pay liquidation penalties.
hahahaha..
Sounds like you are blaming the robot a little bit, even though I know that is not your intention. Fucking robot(s).
From those sales, I am left with nothing! I am watching helplessly, in continuing torment, with no way to re-buy my lost coins unless/until I earn myself some new funds for purchase. This is what margin does to you.][/b]
I do have a strategy to rebuild my BTC. It is not a very good strategy, but it is the best that I can do in the circumstances. I should spend less time on this forum, and more time improving those circumstances.
Sure.. it is good to have some kind of a planned course of action.. and sometimes new opportunities will open up when going down a path that you purposefully choose to take.
Even though you seem to consider there to be some kind of an ongoing personal.. I don't see why you seem to want to engage in such kinds of battles when they do not really seem to be necessary..
I don’t want to, but I do so if really necessary.
Ok.. if you believe that it is necessary.. then so be it.
Whether by accidental misunderstanding or by intent, many of your recent posts have misinterpreted or mischaracterized my situation in a way that puts me in a bad light. That is unavoidably personal to me, even if I wish it were otherwise.
I doubt that I am purposefully trying to be provocative.. but sure, if we disagree on some things then sometimes .. the ways of expressing might become strong. I am not sure why I feel a need to call some arguments or positions dumb, and it seems that the more you write on topics, the more areas of disagreement I find.. I might not be able to stop myself either.. If you raise a lot of issues, then you should expect that some guys might have contrary opinions.. and I don't even respond to all of your posts or points.. only to the ones that get into areas in which I disagree or I want to express some kind of a different way of addressing whatever issue that you had raised..
I am not going to generally concede that I am personally attacking you because I believe that I am attempting to address your arguments, your claims or your framings of matters or even your prioritization of issues, but sure, every once in a while I might throw some insults or strong language into the mix too in order to express some of the level of my disagreement or how I might not even want to get into substance of claims that I might consider to be wrong or premature.. such as your assertion of the death of the 200-Week MA.. and premature/ridiculous (from my perspective) claims like that.
I don't claim to be beyond using strong language if it seems warranted or maybe potentially effective in making some kind of a point or counter-point that I would like to make.. but I try to avoid devolving into
ad hominems whenever I can.. and with you specifically, I do not recall dishing out any
ad hominems, yet.. I have done it with some other members, from time to time.. but I don't consider it to be a frequent approach of mine.. .. . hahahaha
I will concede that sometimes
ad hominems might have some subtlety and some passive-aggressiveness angles to their employment, and I know that I do that sometimes, and it is possible that I had done it with you, but I doubt that you did not deserve it.. at least from my point of view.. Anyhow.. my main points are not meant to denigrate you in any kind of personal attack way but instead to attempt to address the various arguments that are being presented, which I believe that I have mostly been trying to do with you. .because I have not gotten to the level of disliking you, yet.. even though I have found some of your arguments to have some decently strong levels of disagreement from time to time.. so yeah sometimes there might be some feelings of my ways of phrasing some matters as personal attack when they are not even intended as personal attacks.
based on some of your other purported circumstances including that you are otherwise starving and other bullshit like that,
I am thereupon uninterested in further discussion with you. I reply hereby only for the record, on some points I wish to set straight:
Are we breaking up?
Just like you are free to think whatever you want, as long as you don’t go around smearing me based on wild fantasies as some do—I am free to decline discussion with anyone who thinks that I would fabricate such a thing.
It's up to you if you want to break up. I said whatever I felt like I needed to say.
If you are trying to pull on peoples emotions or turn these matters into poor me, then I am probably not going to be nice about it.. It is getting old already.. It's water under the bridge so to speak.;. .or would we call it already spillt milk.
and sure there are ways to frame matters so that no one here needs to feel uncomfortable.. but I am
not going to agree that I need to be extra nice to anyone (you or otherwise) because of some personal circumstances that I have no way of verifying... and gosh, I am not even sure about how much that level of discussion is necessary or relevant in these here parts, anyhow... .. unless you want to create a new thread on that specific topic...
For sure in the abstract we know that all kinds of people who get reckt and we talk about those kinds of issues all the time in this thread.. but not so much about active participants in the thread getting reckt.. that is a bit too much and too personal, even though it does come up sometimes because some members raise that kind of a topic.. so do you believe it is helpful to talk about those kinds of details over and over and over to the extent that they are true, here? or to the extent that some repetition of a lesson needs to be shared, here?. or that your personal experiences have caused you to have become an expert on that topic that we really do not want to discuss in personal ways anyhow?
Let's say that the opposite were to be true, and you accidentally (or on purpose) made a 80x margin trade, but you had ONLY intended to bet with an 8x margin, but you made a mistake, and by the time you figured out your mistake, you had become quasi-rich from your accident margin order.. Sure we are likely to talk about those kinds of lucky incidents to some degree, and it is way more comfortable to talk about if you had accidentally made a bunch of extra money as compared to if you had accidentally lost a lot of money... but still some of that has luck and might be difficult to replicate, so to the extent that we even want to talk about any of the leveraged products, it seems that we try to talk about replicable kinds of suggestions and good practices, at least I do.., and guys in this thread seem to lose patience when talking about the employment of some of the various kinds of leveraging tools.. but if you feel that you are an expert in that area then some members might be willing to read your posts and to interact with you on that particular topic.
Personally, I do not tend to get very excited when guys start to push techniques that might be difficult to replicate (meaning based on luck), and surely if they really seem to know what they are talking about, then it is more difficult to criticize and guys have good luck or bad luck in either direction, then luck is not a great topic because it is a kind of gambling and difficult to replicate.. so topics like luck tend to devolve into either bragging or sobbing, and
ain't nobody got time for that.. It is not really replicable, and guys are going to complain about other members who bring up those bragging or whining topics if there does not seem to be much purpose in raising the topic or repeating the topic.
For sure, in the end, you can post whatever you like. It's a free country.,. but it seems to me if you keep bringing up a topic or a way of framing topics that seem to want to get sympathy or bringing up a topic to proclaim how lucky you are because you did an 80x in profits, then probably guys are going to react negatively rather than positively to some of those kinds of persistencies.. and really I prefer to not even hear about those kinds of good luck or back luck stories very much.. The bad luck ones tend to be too depressing. (and /or annoying).. but sure I am only one person.. so who fucking cares what I think?.. you can keep bringing up your chosen topics if that is what your independent judgement inspires you as being necessary to make whatever point(s) that you would like to make.. In the end, it is your choice, and I will likely continue to complain or even attribute malice to those kinds of repetitious actions if those kinds of repetitions of emotional jerkings continue to be brought up.. but still it is your choice.. do what you like.. no one is stopping you from exercising your own independent judgement regarding whether to post, how to post, what tone to take or whatever you decide that you want to do.. who cares what I think? I am merely giving my opinion.
I have frankly been grieving. Because it’s not “only money” to me. Bitcoin.
Grieving has a proper time. Then, it is time to move on and be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.
I see no reason to continue back-and-forth about how I should or can or can’t rebuild my holding—a subject about which, I repeat, I have not and
cannot request useful advice on a public forum. I just need to work on it.
Well that is true.. you likely do need to work on it.
I already mentioned one of my recent incidents (from less than a week ago) of avoiding interacting with some no coiners until I was psychologically ready... and I think that was 24 hours to 36 hours of avoidance until I got my shit together.. so yeah, sometimes it can take a while to get either finances or psychology together, and probably a lot of us realize that we feel a lot more psychologically comfortable based on our having had established an investment stake in bitcoin and building up our bitcoin position over the years and other ways of balancing and maintaining our BTC portfolio along with other investments that we might have.
Accordingly, it seems to me that if our finances get out of order or in a state of chaos, then it is quite likely that our psychology will be negatively affected by such imbalances and chaos.. and depending on the severity of those imbalances, it can take a while to bring back to a comfortable position in order to psychologically recover from such chaosness and out of order status.
It also seems that each of us is likely different in terms of how much financial order we feel that we need in order to feel psychologically comfortable.
At the bottom line, I will repeat here what I recently told someone who reached out to me via PM with concerns and well-wishes:
In the long term, I am confident that I will recuperate financially. This is a worse as a spiritual blow than anything else.
Sure.. fair enough.. fair enough.
Edit: Whoops.. I noticed some typos, so I went back and corrected them and clarified a few of the ideas too.
Poll
