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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 38 (25.5%)
2024 - 58 (38.9%)
2025 - 40 (26.8%)
2026 - 3 (2%)
2027 - 2 (1.3%)
After 2027 - 3 (2%)
Never - 5 (3.4%)
Total Voters: 149

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25999184 times)
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OgNasty
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December 03, 2022, 06:11:37 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

The Bitcoin market is so stable I keep questioning whether or not my price application is working. This is the sort of stabilization we’ve typically seen in the past when in accumulation mode. I believe that’s what is happening here. Plenty of people have decided this price is low enough and are taking advantage to buy the sats that people are offloading out of fear. I’m pretty sure people buying here won’t regret it in a couple years.
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December 03, 2022, 06:19:03 PM

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December 03, 2022, 06:20:18 PM

Think that was the strongest team so far how Netherlands played.
They have a real chance at winning the entire thing.

Yhea, they made significant progress and having a decent chance of winning the World Cup. Showed more solid and energetic playstyle.. yet, Van Gaal is still not happy about it there is even more room for improvement he will pushing his team to achieve that.

Only 3 games left to win..lol.

Next game i hope it will be Australia. Smiley



I also believe….. as I also think Portugal has a chance

They will meet in the finals

Netherland - Portugal

Portugal? Maybe, if they drop Ronaldo...the guy used to be so effective...not anymore.
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December 03, 2022, 06:20:31 PM

The Bitcoin market is so stable I keep questioning whether or not my price application is working. This is the sort of stabilization we’ve typically seen in the past when in accumulation mode. I believe that’s what is happening here. Plenty of people have decided this price is low enough and are taking advantage to buy the sats that people are offloading out of fear. I’m pretty sure people buying here won’t regret it in a couple years.

I keep selling the doge and Turning it into BTC
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December 03, 2022, 06:22:01 PM

submerge the whole body?

...iiiiinteresting.  Cheesy

Yes.

It's called underwater surfing....


Don't u know nuttin?
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December 03, 2022, 06:40:22 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2022, 07:32:14 PM by Biodom
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), bitebits (1)

Underwater surfing while surfing WO at the same time...that is surely a new technology, but i digress.
Excuse moi for a little dig.
Bitcoin was not harmed.

I increased my speculative position in stonks by 10% last week.
itchy fingers on cash deployment into btc, but would be OK without any extra allocation.
That said, there are a few references that are stopping me for the moment (which could be wrong):

1. In 2014-2015, we bottomed in January, which is possible now too, imho. In 2018, we bottomed in December, so it is more or less 50:50. 80-90% chance for this (bottom either already in or will be in january).

2. An alternative possibility: In 2014, Mt Gox went out on Feb 24 when btc was at $546. Initially, btc was not affected much, paradoxically,  but eventually went down to $175 within about 10 mo.
Therefore, if FTX=MtGox (which is probably not the case), then the bottom would be 10 mo away (by Sept-Oct 2023) at a horrific number that i don't want to post, but you can do the math.
I currently give 10-20% chance to this scenario.

TL;DR maybe it is time to DCA, but maybe not yet.
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December 03, 2022, 07:01:17 PM


Explanation
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December 03, 2022, 07:04:34 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2022, 10:01:46 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

from reddit...Interesting thoughts on bitcoin by A. Back Black (EDIT):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfLHB4bq_d4

TL;DR 'bitcoin was rather discovered than invented"..."it's almost like a mathematical artifact".
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December 03, 2022, 07:18:41 PM
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Anyone here like vaporwave music? I just love to listen it and read the memes in the comments section.


1. Only one friend in a group can be at all their funerals, but nobody will be at his funeral

2. You have a life-span of 1 to 2 minutes, but everytime you take a breath, the timer resets.

3. The way your grandpa sees your generation is the same way his grandfather saw his generation

4. If James Bond is the most well known spy ever, doesn’t that mean he’s the worst spy?

5. Day by day nothing changes, but when you look back everything is different

6. Mirrors don’t break, they multiply.

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December 03, 2022, 07:57:57 PM

#Bitcoin

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December 03, 2022, 08:01:17 PM


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December 03, 2022, 08:11:37 PM

The Bitcoin market is so stable I keep questioning whether or not my price application is working. This is the sort of stabilization we’ve typically seen in the past when in accumulation mode. I believe that’s what is happening here. Plenty of people have decided this price is low enough and are taking advantage to buy the sats that people are offloading out of fear. I’m pretty sure people buying here won’t regret it in a couple years.
I have the same thoughts, the price of bitcoin seems to be restrained in a narrow corridor, it is not allowed to fall lower and is allowed to go up, it is likely that such containment is beneficial for someone. I hope what you're talking about will come true, because I am one of those who continue to buy now at the current price!  Grin
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December 03, 2022, 08:31:29 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2022, 08:42:40 PM by JayJuanGee

Underwater surfing while surfing WO at the same time...that is surely a new technology, but i digress.
Excuse moi for a little dig.
Bitcoin was not harmed.

You are correct.

Most likely dee cornz gives few if any shits.... and if s/he/it were to give any shits then s/he/it would probably not let us know... no matter how much we attempt to figure him/her/it out.


and excusa mua tambien... I am going to get some of my lil digs in too.. see below.. just for funzies.... .. You're asking for it.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  nohomo

I increased my speculative position in stonks by 10% last week.

Whoaza!!!!  Speculating on shitcoins.. hahahahaha...  I will admit that I do hold various positions in index stocks, but I do not really change too much (or pay attention) in regards to those matters too much..

From my perspective, there is a "keep your eye on the ball" consideration in regards to a lot of this... and in the whole scheme of things, there is not likely much that matters beyond figuring out how and how much to allocate to dee cornz and how to deal with that allocation to dee cornz - even in times like these.

Assuming that your stocks are somewhat liquid, I would imagine that you are better off for considering them as a hedge to the cornz as compared to something like bonds or Ibonds, as our lil buddy Philip wants to describe as purported "prudence."  So stocks seem to be a bit of a better bet, and from your earlier posts, you seem to have some specific kinds of stocks in mind rather than just generally investing into index funds - to the extent that you may or may not be able to out perform index funds might be another story.

itchy fingers on cash deployment into btc, but would be OK without any extra allocation.

Well if you believe that 20 BTC or maybe you are up to 20.20 or perhaps 21 BTC? is enough of dee cornz, then that's all on you.  I will generally agree with the theory that if we have already sufficiently allocated, then we should not be very worried about whether we have enough or not or whether we are sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP.

In regards to my own situation (as a point of possible comparison), I have frequently asserted that I am more than enough prepared and allocated for UP, and I have even proclaimed that I am over-allocated so that I do not have any problems to shave off BTC as the price goes up or to shave off BTC anytime that I want to, whether the BTC price goes up down or sideways.. so in that regard, I had not really considered any need to inject more cash into my BTC holdings - and even having had said that, I have found it quite irresistible to inject a bit more cash (and to reauthorize and to reallocate cash) for BTC ever since the BTC price went below the 200-week moving average.. which I had not really anticipated.. so I was somewhat prepared to be able to buy BTC with already allocated cash up until about 10% or more below the 200-week moving average.. but as we all know, BTC prices have gone quite a bit below the 200-week moving average, even as much as 35% below the 200-week moving average, so far... so I have been continuing to find the situation quite irresistible to continue to have to rethink the allocation of cash towards BTC purchases, and even cash that I had considered to be completely removed from BTC purchasing considerations and even considering ways in which to maybe spend a bit less - or to defer some purchases that I may well have had otherwise made.... so some of my own behaviors are still quite surprising to my lil selfie.....

so even though, sure I am not really admitting to how much BTC I have accumulated beyond the already admitted 0.63BTC, but still it seems that my inclinations are a bit different from yours, Biodom... .. and maybe I am wanting to reassert my own bitcoin philosophy in terms of some of the desires to continue to over-allocate into BTC in order that I am not worried about shaving a bit off here and there, including shaving off BTC as the price goes up to new ATHs(in the event that it does go up to new ATHs), and to not have to worry about those kinds of matters in regards to whether or not I have enough BTC or whether I might have shaved off too many BTC.. because in the end, as I already stated, I have way more than enough BTC, so that I am not worried about shaving off BTC at any price, even though it would be preferable to shave them off at higher prices rather than lower.

Remember what you had been saying and what you had been arguing about never having to sell your BTC because you can just "earn from your BTC" and various bullshit like that?  Haven't some of those models been disproven to you? or at least undermined in recent times?  Think of all those rich folks and entities (and surely some of the not so rich folks) who were desperately seeking yield from their BTC, and even putting their BTC in somewhat considered to be conservative products (such as Gemini Earn), and now some of those guys are either fucked, or at least having some serious dilemmas in regards to some or all of their BTC getting locked up with irresponsible parties.. merely because they thought that they were going to NOT have to spend any of their BTC.

So I guess that part of my point is that I have difficulties considering whether any of these earning based on your BTC or using your BTC as collateral are going to prevent you from getting screwed in the event that some of the third parties are going to want to make sure that they have possession of your BTC in order that you are not placing your BTC as collateral with someone else.. so you get stuck with depending on 3rd parties, when perhaps it may have been a better consideration to make sure that you both have enough BTC and that you have more than enough BTC in order that you are not worrying about shaving off whatever amount of BTC that you want, as you go... .. .. so even if I might consider that the BTC price might have topped out at $80k (if it gets there), then if I am overstocked on BTC, then I can surely live comfortably by only shaving off 10%-15% of my stash rather than getting so desperate (or trying to figure out tops) that I end up feeling that I have to shave off 20% to 30% of my stash.. and then if the BTC price keeps going up.. in spite of my considerations, I would then be stuck with having way less BTC to work with rather than if I had overly stocked up on BTC from the start (including times like these when we still have something in the ballpark of BTC prices that are 30% below the 200-week moving average.. which surely remains a kind of interesting ongoing phenomena that may not be so easy to keep pushing the BTC price down from here.. even if we might load up on BTC (and use up quite a bit of our fiat stash) then we still are not likely to be going that much below our current prices.. even though through my reading further below, I see that you have some seemingly unrealistic bearish scenarios regarding how far you believe that the prices of my lil precious can (or might) go.

That said, there are a few references that are stopping me for the moment (which could be wrong):

Ah Ha!  At least you are off to a good start by admitting that you could be wrong in the various ways that you are looking at this matter.   Tongue Tongue

1. In 2014-2015, we bottomed in January, which is possible now too, imho. In 2018, we bottomed in December, so it is more or less 50:50. 80-90% chance for this (bottom either already in or will be in january).

To me, this seems like sloppy as fuck thinking to be attempting to place too much weight on Calendar year considerations.. when King Daddy likely gives few fucks about calendar year mumbo jumbo considerations.  Sure, there are some aspects of the calendar year, months and quarters that motivate all asset classes, so we have to take these kinds of calendar year constrictions with a decently large grain of salt.. and even you likely recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is a unique asset class, even if someone (not saying who) might batslap you across the room a few times because of your ongoing pigeonholing efforts of king daddy as if s/he/it were a mature asset class.

2. An alternative possibility: In 2014, Mt Gox went out on Feb 24 when btc was at $546. Initially, btc was not affected much, paradoxically,  but eventually went down to $175 within about 10 mo.

Oh Come on!!!



You gotta look at the context a bit better than that... holy bjesus fuck.. I mean  consider the cycle and consider other things that are going on...

I am not proclaiming that it might not take 10 months to play out.. but still.  There are needs to be careful in terms of fractal comparisons.. or whatever it is that you are striving to achieve with this kind of an assertion of a parralel.

Therefore, if FTX=MtGox (which is probably not the case), then the bottom would be 10 mo away (by Sept-Oct 2023) at a horrific number that i don't want to post, but you can do the math.
I currently give 10-20% chance to this scenario.

You do not want to post it because it is silly.. and also.. why you giving such high odds to such a silly scenario?

TL;DR maybe it is a time to DCA, but maybe not yet.

It's never really bad to DCA.. and of course, it is better to DCA during dips rather than exponential price rises.. so in that regard, combining DCA and buying on dip does not seem like a bad strategy when we are not ONLY below the 200-week moving average (anything at or below the 200-week moving average seems like a bargain), we are actually right around 30% below the 200-week moving average as I type this response post... Go figure, or not yet.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

from reddit...Interesting thoughts on bitcoin by A. Black:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfLHB4bq_d4
TL;DR 'bitcoin was rather discovered than invented"..."it's almost like a mathematical artifact".

That is not the opinion of any random one including some random one called "A. Black" (sic)...

Al contrare.. in your linked 3-minute video clip that is Adam "fucking" Back who is sharing his ideas therein..

Adam Back is a well-know bitcoiner, who happens to be cited in the white paper.. and who happens to be more or less the inventor of "proof of work" and who happens to be the head of blockstream.. and surely ongoingly bringing a lot of innovations to the bitcoin space... and someone who does not waiver in terms of his understanding bitcoin on a variety of fundamental levels... yes.. we do not worship anyone in the space, but that is not just some random clip or random person.. #justsaying
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December 03, 2022, 08:46:07 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2022, 09:00:35 PM by Biodom
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Quote
Remember what you had been saying and what you had been arguing about never having to sell your BTC because you can just "earn from your BTC" and various bullshit like that?  Haven't some of those models been disproven to you? or at least undermined in recent times?

You could have still earned by selling calls throughout the bear market, but apart from that, you are right-it turned out that "yield" and bitcoin do not play nice and, perhaps, it was more likely from the get-go, considering the crazy attitudes of supposed "regulated" 'adults in the room'. Even plain English text of the documents did not help because, allegedly, there were other parts of the agreement in direct contradiction to "it's your funds" statement.

I actully read the Gemini "Earn" agreement and after that reading decided not to use it (because they said that they will loan your btc to third parties).
BTW, Ledger X (where you can sell calls on btc) survived FTX bankruptcy (so far), even though they were relatively recently bought by FTX.us

EDIT: apparently, LEdgerX is for sale now and the bidders are blockchain.com (which was OK 5 years ago, not sure now), Gemini (surprisingly) and a few smaller players.
Personally, I think that Novo will snatch it (if he still have funds).
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December 03, 2022, 08:46:37 PM



Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?
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December 03, 2022, 08:48:11 PM
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Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?

Where? WC?
They had to win qualifications...and then, they had to qualify from the group (which Germany, for example, failed to do), so they did OK.
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December 03, 2022, 08:55:36 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2022, 09:15:03 PM by Hueristic



Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?

Where? WC?
They had to win qualifications...and then, they had to qualify from the group (which Germany, for example, failed to do), so they did OK.

How did they even get a team?

Did they just stick a bunch of players together like they do for the basketball and hockey matches in the Olympics?
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December 03, 2022, 08:59:31 PM

That 18 year old Australian came SO close to scoring in the last 30 seconds.
What a shame.

Bastard Argentinians. Hopefully Netherlands kick them out on Friday.
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December 03, 2022, 09:32:36 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2022, 11:10:38 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

Quote
Remember what you had been saying and what you had been arguing about never having to sell your BTC because you can just "earn from your BTC" and various bullshit like that?  Haven't some of those models been disproven to you? or at least undermined in recent times?

You could have still earned by selling calls throughout the bear market, but apart from that, you are right-it turned out that "yield" and bitcoin do not play nice and, perhaps, it was more likely from the get-go, considering the crazy attitudes of supposed "regulated" 'adults in the room'. Even plain English text of the documents did not help because, allegedly, there were other parts of the agreement in direct contradiction to "it's your funds" statement.

I actully read the Gemini "Earn" agreement and after that reading decided not to use it (because they said that they will loan your btc to third parties).
BTW, Ledger X (where you can sell calls on btc) survived FTX bankruptcy (so far), even though they were relatively recently bought by FTX.us

I agree with you.. there's a lot of "holy fucking shit" going on right now, and even relatively diligent people were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Surely, I am not trying to say "I told you so" or even to suggest that some of those products to possibly earn or to use BTC as collateral or to place various bets with your BTC might not be able to mature in the future, but it is quite likely that through some of the recent events, some of us have been able to see and appreciate more concretely that sometimes there were hidden or obscure terms, sometimes the trusted third parties were not even following aspects of the terms (or maybe had a different interpretation of terms), and surely some folks are in better positions to negotiate exposure than others, but even the good negotiators might have gotten some indirect screwing of their lil selfies when their associates were engaging in some of the loosey goosey behaviors.  

I mentioned a few times that I have some financial entanglement with someone who was fucking around with Voyager..and who had engaged in some other risky (and even previously undisclosed) behaviors with some other third party entities so that I am still covering some of the aspects (and ongoing fallout) of those losses in ways that I would prefer not to.. .. but even though that person was fucking around with pretty high percentages of his/her total BTC and also high percentage of his/her total networth, the total amount of the loss... even if I were to assume all of his/her losses would still ONLY constitute less than 5-8% of my BTC wealth and even smaller if we are talking about my total networth.. so without too much pain, I can still cover some of the stupid-ass (or seemingly overly risky, sloppy and/or gambling) losses that the person was taking.. but currently I have no real serious plan to cover all of that bullshit... unless I die or something and then there would likely be some successorship type possibilities in place in which I may well end up covering all of those losses.. even though I likely would not give too many shits about some of the matters at that point...

I die first or the other person(s) die first.. can sometimes affect someone when there are some financial/business/contractual entanglements and when people that you know and associate with engage in risky and/or gambling behaviors... even if you thought you had some pretty decent grasps of their personalities or what they were doing or would do in x situation.


Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?
Where? WC?
They had to win qualifications...and then, they had to qualify from the group (which Germany, for example, failed to do), so they did OK.

How did they even get a team?

Did they just stick a bunch of players together like they do for the basketball and hockey matches in the Olympics?

You must not know nuttin, Hueristic.  

Since 'merica is such a "fair" place, there was drawing of straws across the whole "eligible" population* of the country to assemble the team, and then they had try-outs thereafter.  

You need to keep up with current events a wee bit MOAR better! #justsaying.    Angry Angry Angry Angry

*a cuestionario was required to be filled out and answered which included to "describe what is football".. which was used to weed down the number of eligibles.
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