Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

This liftoff has a lot of similarity to April 2019.
In 2019 the initial pump was from about $4K to $5.2K, then continued to $13.8K.
If we literally translate %, then initial spike (from 16.69K to 21.05K) was similar-26.7% in 2019 and about 25.8% here.
In 2019 the "pump" continued for another 166%, and with similar percentages we would be at $55.8K at the "local" pre-peak this year.
That would be tremendous, but kind of high end of my expectations for this early in a bull cycle, unless this bull will be much stronger than 2019-2021.
Length-wise, if we repeat (it was 3mo minus 5-6 days in 2019), in would be over by about last week of March-first week of April.
Since March 31 is the end of Q1 and April 15-18 is a typical tax day in US (this year it is on 18th), it is kind of logical to expect something in that vicinity.

[eXPHorizon]

On the other Note : Bitcoin - The most manipulated Internet VBucks ever

[TrustedBitcoiner]

I do believe that this rally signals the 15.5K bottom, but I do not believe the market will just run away and leave me behind. Inflation or Recession  or Both!?, these are the options people... but sure drain oil reserves to make CPI print look ok for a minute that'll save us! ... it's going to be a tough year for markets bitcoin included.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cmacwuz]

So if the economy really *isn't* fucked and things *are* ok overall then we should start seeing 10k jumps in a day, then some selling, then another 10k jump. We shall see.

TLDR: Maybe things aren't fucked, and we have been sold a bill of goods called DOOM!!!!!

Macroeconomically I still think things are f'd in the US of A. Without a diligent and fierce Volcker approach to crush inflation, it continues to fester. I do not mind this, and maybe the "new" paradigm for world economies runs on inflation/debt to fake growth as the depopulation plateau begins to show its face here on earth. So legacy finance cooks the books harder than ever, and the Fed tip-toes letting inflation rest around 4% indefinitely. The CPI is misleading as is, and it is getting changed for... reasons.

The other route is the hard one, and we will have to  see bitcoin live through a true (not flash) recession/contraction.

There are many things I like about btc, but one is that it's my bet against the FED, the WEF, the IMF. Watching FED fumbling inflation has been a pleasure

[IP Update 11.99.6]

DOWN! 

 20k < 30k this week.

[goldkingcoiner]

I honestly hope that there are no cheaper entrees anymore for them who where not willing to buy at 70-80% down.

I sunk a nice piece of change back in btc mining gear. More than an entire btc.
I used a cc. Got 15 months interest free. Did buys of miners in sept oct nov dec and jan.

I also got three dips in Nov and a Nov DCA every Friday.


So far so good. Be nice to see a true rally say 30k and then a nice flat strech.

You think that was a good idea? Whats that saying about not investing money that you do not have?

DOWN! 

 20k < 30k this week.

FTFY

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tesorex]

I'm waiting for a $25k price, the whole market would go crazy and the buy starts, who is insane enough to sell Bitcoin now?

[philipma1957]

I honestly hope that there are no cheaper entrees anymore for them who where not willing to buy at 70-80% down.

I sunk a nice piece of change back in btc mining gear. More than an entire btc.
I used a cc. Got 15 months interest free. Did buys of miners in sept oct nov dec and jan.

I also got three dips in Nov and a Nov DCA every Friday.


So far so good. Be nice to see a true rally say 30k and then a nice flat strech.

You think that was a good idea? Whats that saying about not investing money that you do not have?

DOWN! 

 20k < 30k this week.

FTFY

I use cc to earn money not pay interest.

IE 20k in funds.

and a 30k line of credit

the credit is zero interest for next 15 months and earns 2 percent .



and pay it off with funding I have.

I got card in Nov. and grabbed 11,200 in gear. then 3,000 in gear.
card balance was 14,200.

I got a 200 usd bonus for first 3000 purchase and 2 percent off all purchased. around 500 usd.

card is paid down to 2500. and i am debating to pay the 2500 off on monday/tuesday.

I have good credit and go cc every 3 or 4 years in btc cycle.

I earn a lot in rebates. and pay next to nothing in interest.

[Biodom]

The macro question is: how much the US will get f-ed up by a self-imposed debt ceiling situation.
Mind you, I don't think that debt ceiling per se is something bad...it is just the way they are talking about 'solving' it might bring attention to the size of that debt and the consequences of it.

Here are some background stories from the "right" and "left", respectively:

https://news.yahoo.com/house-republicans-prepare-emergency-plan-000250667.html

https://newrepublic.com/post/170016/mint-trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-dark-brandon

And here is....Davos/WEF/etc, etc.:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/01/14/davos-confronts-a-new-world-order/

Perhaps, both the latter and the former explains upcoming btc surge.

The Times They Are A-Changin':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90WD_ats6eE

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

I honestly hope that there are no cheaper entrees anymore for them who where not willing to buy at 70-80% down.

 ....sometimes badger is forgiving and grants last chances, like in March `20

[HI-TEC99]

the sl program is available on most linux/bsd distributions as package/port, i.e. on debian based systems just 'apt-get install sl', the rest is just 'alias btc-price=sl -l'

The other direction for that train would be MOAR better.

I find this kinda nitpicking, but not going to argue there, lets go the other way then.

A propeller powered train like this one might be more appropriate. It goes faster than a steam train, and the latest pump has been rather fast.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Piesel]

$20k before Feb 1, who else can feel it?

Well this aged like milk, way too bearish.. $25k before Feb 1st more fair?

Probably BTC at $30k before feb 1st will be the best predictions this time around, already BTC have a build up that can easily push the price above $25k in the shortest time frame.

 so we may not drag into 1st feb with a $25k price outlook. But then best we wait out the time to see what reality becomes of BTC price this period.

[Gachapin]

This liftoff has a lot of similarity to April 2019.
In 2019 the initial pump was from about $4K to $5.2K, then continued to $13.8K.
If we literally translate %, then initial spike (from 16.69K to 21.05K) was similar-26.7% in 2019 and about 25.8% here.
In 2019 the "pump" continued for another 166%, and with similar percentages we would be at $55.8K at the "local" pre-peak this year.
That would be tremendous, but kind of high end of my expectations for this early in a bull cycle, unless this bull will be much stronger than 2019-2021.
Length-wise, if we repeat (it was 3mo minus 5-6 days in 2019), in would be over by about last week of March-first week of April.
Since March 31 is the end of Q1 and April 15-18 is a typical tax day in US (this year it is on 18th), is kind of logical to expect something in that vicinity.

Was it 2019 or 2015 when there was the rumor that the first pump after the bear was facilitated by the one coin scam?

[Gachapin]

DOWN!  

 20k < 30k this week.

this (in)equation is true every week....

[somac.]

This liftoff has a lot of similarity to April 2019.
In 2019 the initial pump was from about $4K to $5.2K, then continued to $13.8K.
If we literally translate %, then initial spike (from 16.69K to 21.05K) was similar-26.7% in 2019 and about 25.8% here.
In 2019 the "pump" continued for another 166%, and with similar percentages we would be at $55.8K at the "local" pre-peak this year.
That would be tremendous, but kind of high end of my expectations for this early in a bull cycle, unless this bull will be much stronger than 2019-2021.
Length-wise, if we repeat (it was 3mo minus 5-6 days in 2019), in would be over by about last week of March-first week of April.
Since March 31 is the end of Q1 and April 15-18 is a typical tax day in US (this year it is on 18th), is kind of logical to expect something in that vicinity.

Was it 2019 or 2015 when there was the rumor that the first pump after the bear was facilitated by the one coin scam?

That was 2015 I think. In 2019 there was something else, can't remember what exactly, but some group of people managed to get a shitload of coins somehow and were meant to be distributing from the 13k area all the way to the covid crash. I remember people on this forum posting reports of whenever they moved coins.

https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/the-onecoin-scam-the-dazzling-story-of-the-biggest-crypto-ponzi-in-history

[Gachapin]

This liftoff has a lot of similarity to April 2019.
In 2019 the initial pump was from about $4K to $5.2K, then continued to $13.8K.
If we literally translate %, then initial spike (from 16.69K to 21.05K) was similar-26.7% in 2019 and about 25.8% here.
In 2019 the "pump" continued for another 166%, and with similar percentages we would be at $55.8K at the "local" pre-peak this year.
That would be tremendous, but kind of high end of my expectations for this early in a bull cycle, unless this bull will be much stronger than 2019-2021.
Length-wise, if we repeat (it was 3mo minus 5-6 days in 2019), in would be over by about last week of March-first week of April.
Since March 31 is the end of Q1 and April 15-18 is a typical tax day in US (this year it is on 18th), is kind of logical to expect something in that vicinity.

Was it 2019 or 2015 when there was the rumor that the first pump after the bear was facilitated by the one coin scam?

That was 2015 I think. In 2019 there was something else, can't remember what exactly, but some group of people managed to get a shitload of coins somehow and were meant to be distributing from the 13k area all the way to the covid crash. I remember people on this forum posting reports of whenever they moved coins.

Same procedure as every year 4 years...