Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

I was "playing" with bitcoin numbers and have some thoughts on the matter.

Tops ($): 31, 1160, 19780, 68900

To me, it looks like the ATH number 'should have been' $154000 instead of $68900 in the prior peak.
Therefore, it suggests that it was not a "natural" progression, but interference from multiple sources (we all know that Chinese interfered first by shutting down mining and then the rally simply run out of steam due to time constrains plus the beginning of a tightening cycle). In the case of "natural progression" the multiplier might have been 7.8X in a 37X, 17X, 7.8X series-those are multiples from the prior post-halving ATH (and I don't count first peak in 2013). Therefore, the next (2024-2025) peak theoretically should be a 3.58X of the prior peak (which should have been 154K), suggesting a higher bound value of 551K and a lower bound of 246.9K (a product of 68.9X3.58). This suggests that if left alone, bitcoin could produce a super-cycle to "compensate" for the prior cycle underachievement.

However, the trough series are more menacing:
Bottoms: 2, 175, 3200, 15700 (tentatively)

Therefore, the multiple in these series are 87.5X, 18.3X and 4.9X, suggesting that the next trough would be maybe at 1.6X of 15700 or 24600.
If next trough to peak is 0.3 (3 percentage points better than 77% in the current cycle), this would suggest ATH of "only" 82K, which would be a disappointment to many, including myself.

TL;DR The cycle got messed with last time and it is not clear if there would be a "rebound' to the "natural" progression in the form of a 'super-cycle" or not. If yes, then 246-551K is achievable and if not, we might peak at much more pedestrian 82K.

If you want to know what the next cycle top will be, just wait for another Bitcoin prophet like PlanB to come out with some bogus model claiming the "assured" price number it'll cross, and all the shill bots coming out to support that theory all over social media.

The next top will fall well short of that number, whatever the fuck it is. Guaranteed.  

EDIT: Here ya go, the MSM has already started the bs:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/bitcoin-btc-price-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

Two years ago I started a celebration thread for my 10,000th post, and just now, shortly after my 9-year anniversary on the forum and once again crossing the 10k mark,* I finished the thread!

It encapsulates my Top 10 Forum Moments, or at least that I could remember anyway. The Wall Observer thread makes two appearances. You don't have to read the whole thing, but you should at least take a look at it as I spent several hours on it dammit and don't have anybody else to show it off to.


*I deleted several shitposts, failed one-liners and <invalid image> posts at one point in the last two years.

[OutOfMemory]

Two years ago I started a celebration thread for my 10,000th post, and just now, shortly after my 9-year anniversary on the forum and once again crossing the 10k mark,* I finished the thread!

It encapsulates my Top 10 Forum Moments, or at least that I could remember anyway. The Wall Observer thread makes two appearances. You don't have to read the whole thing, but you should at least take a look at it as I spent several hours on it dammit and don't have anybody else to show it off to.


*I deleted several shitposts, failed one-liners and <invalid image> posts at one point in the last two years.

Glad you're back, it has been a looong time without you here since 2020...  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

26k is in site.

[Volgastallion]

HODLING  is the key.#bitcoin

HOlding the Arsenal center defender?. I know that guy know something.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

let's see

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

The WEF launched an ad for BTC mining, calling it data centers  
https://www.weforum.org/videos/this-start-up-catches-waste-methane-to-power-data-centres#




https://twitter.com/PlebSignalBTC/status/1650274674113142790

[darkangel11]

Here's something interesting, which proves that bitcoin price isn't as speculative as some people want us to believe.
A large deviation could be seen in November after the FTX news where bitcoin became largely oversold.
In the last 4 months it became oversold only once according to this chart (in March) and since that time both the price and mining cost went up.

The WEF launched an ad for BTC mining, calling it data centers  
https://www.weforum.org/videos/this-start-up-catches-waste-methane-to-power-data-centres#



https://twitter.com/PlebSignalBTC/status/1650274674113142790

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/12/bitcoin-miner-crusoe-energy-buys-fellow-flared-gas-operator-gam/

-So you use flaring for what?
-Bitcoin mining
-Nono, this is a banned word here, can you say something else?
-Data centers?
-Yes, say data centers, future of science! Klauss said no bitcoin on our site!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@Bitcoin_for_Freedom
This Bitcoin Halving:
- Pandemic
- China ban
- Luna crash
- Celsius crash
- FTX crash
- SEC FUD
- Rate hikes
- War
- Recession

The price is so suppressed that the recoil will melt faces.
https://twitter.com/btc_for_freedom/status/1650560014560509952


I’ve thought for a long time that the previous cycle high was suppressed due to a number of things.
We are going to explode in 2025.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

ChatGPT is an absolute cunt.

That dumbass little cunt...... and not even the good kind of a cunt.

Referring to shitcoins, as if they were relevant to our discussion points in these here parts..

And another thing, testicular fortitude seems to be way more relevant that the idea of discussing - "crypto currencies"

Fuck bots, including but not limited to chatGPT....

ChatGPT is an absolute cunt.

Next time try this way
 

hahahahahaha.. .I like it.

A bit of reverse psychological workening upon the cunt.

Nutildah is a former member of the Bitcoin Forum Wall Observer thread who was known for his contrarian views and sometimes controversial statements. He was a prolific poster on the thread, and his contributions often sparked lively debates and discussions. However, he has not been active on the forum since early 2020.

RIP

He.. (referring to the nut)... is way the fuck more active in the WO thread and in other parts of this here "lovely" forum - no homo - than any reasonable peep would voluntarily agree to, if asked.

The above nut post, reminds me of this momma idea:




 

[eXPHorizon]

https://youtu.be/xTTZQp5xKyg

[OutOfMemory]

^ Actually the first vinyl record album i bought on my own. Together with the Iron Maiden live record "Live After Death".

Looks like Bitcoin support is higher than expected, at least in the higher range of the commonly projected $25-$27k analyst opinions.

[JayJuanGee]

I’m starting to worry that the correction might go deeper. I’m usually a good reverse indicator though so it probably means the bottom is in for now  

Hoping for a rally back to $30,000 this week. We do not want to see the prove move down to the lower $20,000’s.

HODL strong boys!

Agreed.
Since my DCA will trigger next Monday, the price should be back over $30k before.

my dca is this weds. so we rally mon and tues

Haven't seen a summary of your DCA for a while now...

That's because he (philip) sold most of his cornz below $20k around November-ish - in order to buy USA Govt... I-bonds,... and he has been buying back dee cornz little by little over the last several months while hoping and praying the price of my lil precious goes below $12k.. .. which sure, we can all pray for such.. especially if we are under-corneded.



That's why uie-pooies hasn't NOT been hearing too many details en regardening to dee philip sats strategies (if they can be labelled as such?)...


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation