Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

....
as I wrote "all that is totally not the point".  ....

Then why post it bro?

[JayJuanGee]

Haven't seen the 4th bear market report (22 pages) by Tuur Demeester shared yet. Worth a read since the previous three reports (2012, 2015, 2019) turned out to be quite prophetic. One conclusion is we are currently in the accumulation phase (price range $22k-$42k) until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120,000. IMHO it won't take long before all coins in the twenties are permanently sold and we are firmly back into the thirties. Time to HODL, sit back, and enjoy the ride.
https://global-uploads.webflow.com/64146a6197229d65fe665d88/6447db3b49378e26a7154596_position-bitcoin-boom-adamant.pdf
Another conclusion is dollar-cost-averaging sucks vs. lump sum, something the royal we already concluded on the WO.

For those in a hurry the first page with the conclusions:

Thanks for adding this to WO, I really enjoyed reading this and there was definite moments throughout the report where a bit of self congratulation was going on

I didn’t quite get the same feeling in dca’ing Vs lump sum, the topics more stated here are two ways and here is the differences like lump requires more emotional temperament than dca.

JJG the author writes similar to some of your points with probability assignment, while subjective it resonated nonetheless.
Thanks ++ merits

Oh?  Thanks for pointing out that portfolio management section of the article, and the various ways that the author (Tuur Demeester) outlines considering attempts to justify both risks and reasons for choosing bitcoin allocation levels.  He does really flesh out a lot of those kinds of considerations and also he leads off by fleshing out the investment thesis for bitcoin.. and largely proclaiming a stronger fuck shitcoins stance - even though he did not use those exact words, including that the investment thesis for bitcoin is getting stronger and stronger.. and surely unlike @bitebits summary - he did not not proclaim lump sum investing to be superior to the employment of a DCA strategy - though of course, he gives some rationale for each of those strategies and also pointing out that a combination of both may well be individually suitable... including describing some possible tradeoffs that may well come from a variety of levels of investment aggressiveness.....including higher levels of initial allocation than I am wiling to recommend with his up to 50% "early retirement" bet that tends to be more than what I would want to suggest on a general audience approach.. since I leave my own general audience starting out much broader, but still lower with a 1% to 25% range for starting considerations.. and surely he had pointed out that it is likely better that no matter which strategy(ies) that we might end up choosing to employ that we are keeping in mind bitcoin as valuable asset in the long term (and likely increasingly uncorrelated in the long run, even though in correlation and even liquidation risks in the short run.. that likely adds to bitcoin's ongoing likely inevitable short-term volatility).

[Gachapin]

....
as I wrote "all that is totally not the point".  But of course feel free to focus solely on that part of my post and cut out the rest...

Then why post it bro?

I felt the responsibility to respond to OutOfMemory's graphic, as it seemed the most important part to him.
After that I added what I find the most important thing with regards to the topic.

I think trying to answer to aspects that are most important for your dialogue partner is necessary for a cordial conversation. Don't you think?

[JayJuanGee]

Finally covid caught me. Along with me and my dad, who had to be hospitalized because of the severe cough, but without any other complications. We both have 2 vaccines and that definitely contributed to the relatively mild passing of the disease. Unfortunately, dad's other problems, which are cardiac and neurological, cannot be solved in our city.  I hope that soon Bitcoin will increase more so I can buy a house in the city, where I already work and where there are good clinics. But at this stage I can't part with a large chunk of my stash for such a super low price.

Well.. sorry about your father's health situation and that it might end up drawing you towards cashing out more of your cornz at likely a lower price than what would be preferred.. but surely life does some times get in the way.. in terms of sometimes difficulties to maintain investments for longer terms when shorter-term needs sometimes will compel spending and/or cashing out of cornz for likely inferior investments (possibly forced into housing as an investment.. when maybe other sources of funding might not be securable.. perhaps?  only you can know your specifics.)... 

Finally covid caught me. Along with me and my dad, who had to be hospitalized because of the severe cough, but without any other complications. We both have 2 vaccines and that definitely contributed to the relatively mild passing of the disease. Unfortunately, dad's other problems, which are cardiac and neurological, cannot be solved in our city.  I hope that soon Bitcoin will increase more so I can buy a house in the city, where I already work and where there are good clinics. But at this stage I can't part with a large chunk of my stash for such a super low price.

How would you know that without any "control group"?  Also, I wouldn't call being hospitalized relatively mild... but that's just me

Hopefully your dad gets better soon!  Good health is the most important in life.

For sure there is increasing evidence that the vaccinne may well have hurt some people rather than helping them... so not easy to know some of the cause and effect matters when science and even facts and even logic seems to be in an ongoing kind of an attack status.. I am not going to proclaim to know.. except to be sceptical in regards to whether those specific vaccines were helpful, even though other kinds of vaccines may well have been traditionally helpful, these covid vaccines seem to be of a different nature.. and even not well tested, except upon humans as guinea pigs and without even being clear about whether there are objective attempts to really assess the extent of the various side effects..and for sure when we hear about children getting these vaccines, we know that the whole thing is problematic, if not total bullshit.

<… lots of words about job x and job y….>

Good lord!
Youie-pooie actually have a job on top of posting boatloads of text here??!
When do you ever sleep?

No... I don't have nuttin..

I don't eat, sleep or exercise..

poor widdo me.

 


it really sucks to be me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

How do a retard like me knows if the raw data, the synopses and the calculations are even correct.

dyor and check your sources. I don't need to tell you the internet is like ...oh idk,  75 percent nonsense?
Having said that, there is also a huge swath of really good info out there. You just gotta sort the wheat from the chaff if you will.

...

[sirazimuth]

.....

.....
poor widdo me.

 


it really sucks to be me.

No worries bro! I'll sing you another Sesame Street song to cheer you up!
My kid loved it at bedtime years ago........."Daddy! sing me a bedtime song!"

"Well I'd like to visit the moon   ♫  ♪  ♩ ♫  ♪  ♩
 On a rocket ship high in the air  ♫  ♫  ♩  ♫ ♫
.......
......."

memories


GO BITCOIN

[JayJuanGee]

#HODL
#30K

Yeah @OutOfMemory #HODLing 

It's a cute meme.. but those are bears, right? 


I am not sure about the bear "as our WO mascot." 


#justsaying

..........poor widdo me.

 
it really sucks to be me.

No worries bro! I'll sing you another Sesame Street song to cheer you up!
My kid loved it at bedtime years ago........."Daddy! sing me a bedtime song!"

"Well I'd like to visit the moon   ♫  ♪  ♩ ♫  ♪  ♩
On a rocket ship high in the air.....♫  ♫  ♩  ♫ ♫
......."
memories

GO BITCOIN

Oooo....ooooooooo

The "moon" song....

one of my favorites...

You're such a nice guy......



sometimes.




You and nutildah should get together and work on some kind of an NFT.. aka bitcoin inscription.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

.....
Oooo....ooooooooo

The "moon" song....

one of my favorites...

......

Mine too Jay.
It almost makes me tear up every time I play it.

[Negotiation]

#HODL
#30K

Yeah @OutOfMemory #HODLing 

It's a cute meme.. but those are bears, right? 

Yeah, this is cute and you are absolutely right.

I am not sure about the bear "as our WO mascot." 

#justsaying

I just meant a celebration, I never compared the WO guys or mascot to them.

All Wo guys are legends there is no doubt about it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bitcoin_people]

https://twitter.com/BITVOLT7/status/1651604207118557185?t=q3CU-KAvXF4GWibDJuS4xA&s=19

[OutOfMemory]

#HODL
#30K

Yeah @OutOfMemory #HODLing  

Yuck! Put that bears away from here  
$30k is about the median of the range we're in at the time.
That's the message. Nothing more.

....
as I wrote "all that is totally not the point".  But of course feel free to focus solely on that part of my post and cut out the rest...

Then why post it bro?

I felt the responsibility to respond to OutOfMemory's graphic, as it seemed the most important part to him.
After that I added what I find the most important thing with regards to the topic.

I think trying to answer to aspects that are most important for your dialogue partner is necessary for a cordial conversation. Don't you think?

GM.
You are both right, no need to argue.

It seems my point didn't come through, or better put: Gachapin added a bit too much to it.

[REDACTED]

EDIT: I decided to delete all reasoning, it would just add to more misunderstandings.
The facts:

I do not feel or spead fear about global warming, i'm no street gluer, evangelist or greta-follower in any way.

The numbers are just suggesting we're going over the tpping point faster than expected, which matters quite much.
That's the message. Please ask before assuming anything. I'm communicating in a very un-implicit manner, your projections don't work in this case.

[cmacwuz]

Enjoying the public slowly realizing the Fed  is worse with policy than the southpark episode with the headless chicken. They can't raise rates, the banks are holding garbage T bills from the QE era and will suffer great losses on their balance sheets. And Fed can't cut rates, inflation in the US is nothing to shoo away with a limp wrist. Bitcoin's value prop for the general public is clearer to them every day, and the next halving is right around the corner.

Feels good to be happy with bank failures, and happy with printer go brrrrr (make believe economy), best of luck to us

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

Wait... that's a fake meme, nutilduuuuuuuh!...I watched Batman as kid and Batman never said "yo"  

(batslappening.img)
 

[OutOfMemory]

Wait... that's a fake meme, nutildaaaaaah!...I watched Batman as kid and Batman never said "yo"  

(batslappening.img)
 

It gave me a good laugh, though.
Seems like we're in the "century of fakes", so it's legit somehow  

* OutOfMemory imaginating Will Smith as the dark knight in a future Batman movie...

EDIT: I hope "dark knight" is not being interpreted as racism. It wasn't meant as such. These times are complicated, man, so i though i better explicitly mention that