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Just the way I feel about the market in relation to the chart presented by summonerrk. The chart suggested a bearish continuation to 8k is possible, which makes no sense to me.
The timeframe was this whole year.
Yup, IMO there's 99% chance the bottom is in and that is going to go up even more the closer we get to the halving. I feel that the only way to reach a new low is a so called "black swan event" where a strong external factor influences the market, the way covid19 lockdown lin the US made us go to 4k in 2020.
IMO there's nothing wrong with the rest of my numbers.
I already pointed out the various places in which I found your numbers to be less than scientific.. and I don't really want to battle about it.. you are entitled to your own numbers.. and I just pointed out the various ways in which I believe them to be weak.
I am still glad that you employed that method of presenting your beliefs because it is: 1) way better than much of the vague assertions that are made, 2) allows readers to attempt to more thoroughly engage with the various points that you are making, including the various subtleties.
For sure we don't even need to agree about 1) the method of presenting or even 2) whether the numbers add up or 3) if the assigned probabilities are realistic or 4) if there are internal contradictions contained therein.
I agree with a lot of your overall points.. even though I quibbled with various aspects.. as I pointed out.
I feel that the external factors like the banking crisis, FED hikes, and SEC lawsuits put so much pressure on the price that we're likely to stay in an extended consolidation.
Fair enough that we may well be able to look at the charts and point out that we had been in consolidation.. but while we are going through it, there may also be surprises and violence..
In other words, from my point of view, people love to predict stability, but bitcoin is not even close to being in that state of its life, even if in the end, we may well end up getting some period of stalemates.. which largely adds up to the same thing.. flat.... even though I don't tend to expect it, even if it might end up happening.
Like I said yesterday, we couldn't breach 10k resistance for about 12 months in 2019-2020 and this could happen again, with the difference of the resistance being 31k.
My numbers add up to 100% with additional 0.01%. chance of going to 8k (suggested by summonerrk), but again, it's just the way I see the market after holding throughout 2 bear markets (2014 and 2018).
For sure, I don't have any problems with your providing reasonings and comparisons.. those are all good points, from my perspective.
Was it really over 100%? I may be drunk today, but the numbers seem to be fine. It's literally 100% when you sum it up with that 0.01 added just for fun.
I thought that I already sufficiently attempted to address this part.
Yes.. it is great that your numbers actual add up to 100%; however, one of the problems might be if the BTC price goes up to $45k or even $60k, and then drops back down to below $15k.. At that point, both of those events have happened, and your outline of predictions had suggested those to be exclusionary results, even though both things could end up happening, and so in that regard, the 100% is no longer the number because both of the outcomes ended up happening in the way that you described the matter and presented it, did not contemplate (assign probabilities in such a way) that both outcomes could happen...
Last time I said something like that people said I was too bearish, now I feel like you see me as too bullish. I'm confused
You say what you want... sometimes people (maybe even I will?) criticize you for being a bear in one post and being too much of a bull in another post.. and I doubt that it matters very much.. just say whatever you want and whatever you believe that the data supports (from your perspective of weighing the data at the time that you make your post), and surely you have backed up your ideas way better than 9 out of 10 posters
(dentists)** in these here parts.
By the way.. I think that I made my point in regards to anything proclaiming a 99% chance seems too high of odds, and I believe that I have also stated my reasons why I am skeptical about those kinds of odds...and you are free to assign whatever level of odds that you believe, even if others disagree with you...
On a personal level, I am getting more confident that the bottom is in the longer that we spend time significantly higher than the bottom.. and probably a couple of months ago I had proclaimed that I was starting to think that there were only something less than 40% odds that the bottom might get tested and/or breached again.. and perhaps I am more confident now.. and I have not exactly gone through my current numbers in order to figure out how much I would assign to the bottom being in.. or to the various numbers that would need to be assigned on both sides of the equations (either by the end of the year or by your alternative March 2024 timeline... I feel that it is a fairly BIG project to go through such an exercise, and I suppose
the last time that I updated my upside and timeline numbers was December 16, 2021.. and the last time that I updated my downside numbers was May 22, 2022.. and sure of course, our current situation is different.. and so do I want to update those numbers more specifically?.. not really)... I would just rather criticize the numbers of other members... hahahahaha.
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