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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 42 (71.2%)
<$60,000 - 17 (28.8%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26355427 times)
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April 20, 2023, 04:39:52 PM
Last edit: April 20, 2023, 04:54:51 PM by Bitcoin_people
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₿𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: New research paper finds Bitcoin  mining is sustainable and helps decarbonize energy grids!
Full paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4347220
Download This Paper : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID4355022_code2247642.pdf?abstractid=4347220&mirid=1&type=2


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April 20, 2023, 04:40:39 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Yesterday, I updated my projection of entry-level fuck you status chart based on some of the recent great declines in BTC prices that we have seen (mostly over the last year-ish), and I also tried to cause the rate of increase of the BTC bottom price to become more gradual with the passage of time.

So for example, my chart shows a BTC bottom price of:

$39,257 by mid-2024

$144,982 by mid-2028

$370,105 by mid-2032

$640,052 by mid-2035

$1,013,573 by mid-2038

$1,960,433 by late 2043

and

$5,639,679 by mid-2056

Sure, I am not really sure how realistic these projected BTC bottom price numbers are, but I think that they are a bit better than my earlier version that I had created on December 28, 2021 - and that did not have any graduation of the projection curve, and instead my earlier version was more of a straight-line appreciation of the BTC bottom price that was right around 75% per year.. which even at the time that I created it I had considered to be difficult to sustain.  My current chart shows projected BTC price bottom snapshots every 6 months.

Also, I think that one of my underlying presumptions is meant to be based on projecting forward based on the value of today's dollars.. but still I understand that sometimes it can be difficult to project so far into the future, especially when there is an expectation that the dollar is going to continue to lose value and maybe even to lose value more than it has historically debased - especially if we account for many of the seemingly crazy monetary policies in recent times.

Alot of information to take in, but i what i take out of this is:

Your current FU status of 95BTC

11/30/22         $17,164               $20,903.99                  24.59%           95.00%         $5,139.90                 95.67552464

isn't something you should be aiming for, but rather 4BTC

5/31/33                                       $449,033.53                  9.69%           97.00%         $43,528.37                 4.45401035
11/29/33                                       $492,561.90                  9.40%           97.00%         $46,315.48                 4.06040335
is more of a realistic target, here and now!

That's a fair interpretation hisslyness, and of course many of us longer term bitcoiners have personally experienced a variety of ways in which members have worked their own BTC accumulation levels - which includes the fact that sometimes we might conclude that being greedy is going to contribute towards our transitioning into richie status faster - even though at the same time, especially in recent times, we have witnessed a lot of reckening of folks who might ONLY have had been being aggressive in terms of allowing some of their coins to be held by third parties (perhaps because they wanted to earn yield) and then finding out that they did not have the coins that they thought that they had because either the third party had gambled away their coins or their coins had otherwise gotten locked up in financial insolvency proceedings.

Many of us have made mistakes along the way in terms of either being too aggressive, allowing too many coins stay with third parties, and surely there are a lot of folks who have also either been too whimpy or sold coins on the way up (sold too many too soon) and thought that they might be able to buy back cheaper.

So, yeah perhaps part of the lesson is that we do not need as many coins as we think that we might need in order to either arrive at an entry-level fuck you status or to prepare for entering into fuck you status at various time lines into the future.

I remain a bit concerned that I might be too aggressive in my own projection of our ongoing expectation that the bottom will continue to go up, and even though you can see that

The earliest portions of the chart, we had seen that the percentage per year that the bottom was going up was around 146.23% per year (in 2014) and then 64.22% per year (in 2020), 49.08% per year (in late 2022)  and then merely 19.09% per year (in 2033 - if you add the two 6-month periods together that you highlighted above), then we can see that I trying to project that the rate of the increase of the bottom price is going down, but am I still being too overly optimistic in terms of the arrived-at numbers for each of the subsequent years?  While at the same time, maybe I am allowing the amount of the increase to gravitate way too low, if I am projecting that the bottom is ONLY going to increase by 7.34% by the time we get to 2056, so surely there are some of the actual dynamics of UPpity of the BTC price bottom that are almost inevitably going to be incorrect because changes of a few percentage points in one direction or another would likely throw off the trajectory.. unless the numbers end up reverting back to the curve that I had projected at a later date (which would most likely become luck rather than based on any kind of scientific ability to predict the future beyond attempting to ballpark the matter)?

For reference (from my chart) below, I highlight each of the years mentioned above (and pretty much take the %gain/time x2 in order to arrive at the projected annual rate of increase of the projected BTC bottom price for each of the timelines).
               
>>>>
Date          RL_Price            BTCBottom            %gain/time       %Rate∆        $Amnt∆        Coins/FU Status
6/1/14           $644                $46.41                       73.13%           92.00%         $33.94                 43,098.5887
......
5/31/20          $9,472               $5,889.38                  32.11%           94.50%         $1,891.30                 339.5943
......
11/30/22         $17,164               $20,903.99                  24.59%           95.00%         $5,139.90                 95.67552464
......
5/31/33                                       $449,033.53                  9.69%           97.00%         $43,528.37                 4.45401035
11/29/33                                       $492,561.90                  9.40%           97.00%         $46,315.48                 4.06040335
.................
5/29/56                                       $5,639,679                  3.67%           99.00%         $206,870                      0.35463012
<<<<
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April 20, 2023, 05:01:17 PM


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April 20, 2023, 05:27:06 PM

Britons who keep gardens green should get council tax cut, study suggests
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/britons-keep-gardens-green-council-060037308.html
This is very interesting considering my council tax just increased by 6% and I suddenly also have to pay yearly to get my garden waste collected. I can foresee many people not bothering and private gardens rotting away or just getting paved over.

Thus in reality the opposite is going to happen from what should happen like everything local and national governments touch.

Many of us likely can recognize a pattern that exists all around the world on a variety of levels in which various forms  of self-sustainability are discouraged, whether it comes to the ability to maintain your own garden (many times city codes have a lot of restrictions regarding the ability to have gardens or even animals in your yard - if you have a yard), and also many countries are prevented from being able to be self-sustaining, because dependencies are purposefully created in order to keep countries from being more independent and not providing specialized products into international markets.

Many patterns of control that are not necessarily friendly to individuals or to smaller entities in which people might become empowered by being able to be more self-sustaining.

Surely there are likely decent rationalizations why there are zoning laws, but they are not frequently for good reasons - beyond seeming to want to control citizens way more than necessary and to create a variety of dependencies on larger producers who are not even seeming to provide products that are necessarily as good as can be raised on more local levels, and I am not even saying that there are not efficiencies that are gained in some markets being able to mass produce, and surely even some of us regular people contribute to our own problem in the dynamic of incentives when we buy mass produced products/services because there is a certain appeal to what seems to be cheaper prices (and sometimes it can be a "pain in the ass" to actually deal with local people.. hahahahaha).

I am not even claiming to be except from these criticisms in my sometimes use of Amazon to buy things that I could more easily buy locally, and fuck it can frequently be inconvenient to have to go to the market or even the farmers market, and there are degrees of inconveniences that we cannot even necessarily know that it may well be better to go buy something used from a neighbor rather than the neighbor throwing things out.. and many folks prefer new things because who wants to deal with some of the used-items even if they might be higher quality products and in need of various kinds of servicing.

Oh yeah, and your point in regards to compost, I am not really that clear in regards to how to consider the matter, because surely I do not consider various kinds of city taxes to necessarily be unreasonable for providing a variety of services, and surely it costs them money to have to carry out various kinds of services, such as garbage removal whether those might be separated out as compost, recycle-ables, and regular garbage and other services that cities provide in terms of cleaning streets and even maintaining streets.. so there are surely some sacrifices when any of us live in tight quarters and the extent to which we even have the ability to maintain a garden/yard and surely there are a lot of restrictions in terms of even being able to use our own compost - if that were what we wanted to do in terms of if we were to be able to have our whole yard as a garden and an area to raise animals.. not that very many people even wants to do that kind of work anymore.. because it does not necessarily seem to pay as well as our own specializing in performing other kinds of services and just buying our food from the store rather than either raising it ourselves or having a helper (or various helpers - whether they are paid or not) to help to raise our food for us..

...................The only ATH I care about.
Until we hit 170,000 USD, of course, because of… reasons.

hahahahahaha


trolling poor widdo proudhon...     Wink
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April 20, 2023, 06:01:21 PM


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April 20, 2023, 06:41:07 PM

Expected correction after a pretty incredible surge from $16,000 which was not really that long ago. Let’s hope we don’t go too much lower so we can consolidate and get pump hard into the end of Q2.
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April 20, 2023, 07:36:22 PM

Expected correction after a pretty incredible surge from $16,000 which was not really that long ago. Let’s hope we don’t go too much lower so we can consolidate and get pump hard into the end of Q2.

It’s the first correction we’ve had in a little bit, but it only wiped off a little over a week’s worth of gains. No reason to worry if it sticks around $28K for a while. It was expected to be choppy around $30K as the bulls reload for another moon shot to bring us back to around the $40K level, which I assume will be breached by the end of the year.
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April 20, 2023, 07:47:36 PM

Straight after the SpaceX launch. Obviously a dig at Musk.



 Roll Eyes

Says the guy who's been helping make laws for 140 years.
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April 20, 2023, 08:18:54 PM

The MiCA regulation in Europa has passed the votes. It will take effect in 2024.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/20/eu-parliament-approves-crypto-licensing-funds-transfer-rules/

anybody knows if this affects non-custodial wallets and (private) onchain transfers?

You can continue to do what you want. As soon as you use an official money transmitter, you have to do KYC from  a transfer sum of €1000.
That is the status today. So what will the future bring?  Roll Eyes
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April 20, 2023, 08:21:03 PM

happy 420 gentlebeings!

Starship launch attempt #2       t-minus 30m
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1wcilQ58hI

Thanks for posting, I would have missed it otherwise. It went pretty well.

I wish I could go watch one of these larger rockets take off. I'd have to travel a long way for that though so in the meantime I'll settle with my Estes.

Estes have starship as a flying model?
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April 20, 2023, 08:38:54 PM

I don't  buy the whole anti-Gensler sentiment...
He certainly knows his stuff.  His MIT lectures "Blockchain and money" are among the best on the topic out there.

MIT 15.S12 Blockchain and Money, Fall 2018 MIT OpenCourseWare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH6vE97qIP4&list=PLUl4u3cNGP63UUkfL0onkxF6MYgVa04Fn


I tend to think Gensler is good for Bitcoin and bad for shitcoins...

There is a quite reasonable explanation why he wasn't answering the mEth questions in the hearing straightly.
That is, his agency is probably building a case against mEth.

SEC Coming For Your Crypto (Ethereum)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldcRstRjMqQ

You think he will stop at shitcoins...that's laughable.
Maybe a few people here should read the "First they came" poem by M. Niemoller...
...it's quite relevant despite a multitude of the opposite opinions on this forum.
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April 20, 2023, 09:01:20 PM


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April 20, 2023, 09:27:13 PM

Expected correction after a pretty incredible surge from $16,000 which was not really that long ago. Let’s hope we don’t go too much lower so we can consolidate and get pump hard into the end of Q2.

It’s the first correction we’ve had in a little bit, but it only wiped off a little over a week’s worth of gains. No reason to worry if it sticks around $28K for a while. It was expected to be choppy around $30K as the bulls reload for another moon shot to bring us back to around the $40K level, which I assume will be breached by the end of the year.

Not to conservative

By may/June perhaps?
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April 20, 2023, 10:07:35 PM

The MiCA regulation in Europa has passed the votes. It will take effect in 2024.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/20/eu-parliament-approves-crypto-licensing-funds-transfer-rules/

anybody knows if this affects non-custodial wallets and (private) onchain transfers?

You can continue to do what you want. As soon as you use an official money transmitter, you have to do KYC from  a transfer sum of €1000.
That is the status today. So what will the future bring?  Roll Eyes

I'm pretty sure the EUSSR will want to lay hand on non-custodial wallets at some point in the future...

Was just curious if they already went for it...  Roll Eyes
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April 20, 2023, 11:10:01 PM
Last edit: April 21, 2023, 12:45:34 AM by Gachapin
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I don't  buy the whole anti-Gensler sentiment...
He certainly knows his stuff.  His MIT lectures "Blockchain and money" are among the best on the topic out there.

MIT 15.S12 Blockchain and Money, Fall 2018 MIT OpenCourseWare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH6vE97qIP4&list=PLUl4u3cNGP63UUkfL0onkxF6MYgVa04Fn


I tend to think Gensler is good for Bitcoin and bad for shitcoins...

There is a quite reasonable explanation why he wasn't answering the mEth questions in the hearing straightly.
That is, his agency is probably building a case against mEth.

SEC Coming For Your Crypto (Ethereum)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldcRstRjMqQ

You think he will stop at shitcoins...that's laughable.


mmh actually, that's not what I said.

Again, here is my quote: "I tend to think Gensler is good for Bitcoin and bad for shitcoins"
(I mean him, not the people behind him, or anyone else ...as it is now):

He knows very well the technical an monetary differences between Bitcoin and shitcoins.  I think you know how important that knowledge is in order to understand Bitcoins's decentralization, purity and the value thereof.  (check out his MIT lectures and you will see how deep his understanding is)

He has already declared Bitcoin a non-security. Which is good for Bitcoin.

When asked about different shitcoins, he always refers to the Howey-Test.  And it's obvious that almost any shitcoin will pass that test.
In result that is bad for these shitcoins



Maybe a few people here should read the "First they came" poem by M. Niemoller...
...it's quite relevant despite a multitude of the opposite opinions on this forum.

I learned it in high school, decades ago.  It was good life advice for me.


As I understand it, you try to draw a connection between Niemöller's saying and this Bitcoin/shitcoin/Gensler talk, no?

I might get you wrong, but do you wanna imply that Bitcoiners should speak out in favor of shitcoins, like mEth, in order to avoid being the next on the list who the state is coming for ?

If yes, primarily prepare for JJG's batslap  Grin  and secondarily I think it's a not so accurate comparison:

The Nazis came for their opponents...
but most shitcoins like mEth are no opponent for the fiat system, because they support exactly the same power structure, (power of the rich) by POS, pre-mine etc.

And.. if Bitcoin is seen as an enemy, it will be so, no matter if shitcoins exist or not.  It's not the same animal.

Also the Nazis came to put humans into camps or to kill them...
imo inadequate to compare that to regulators who come for illegal securities scams and try to get them registered in a way that any other non-scammy product has to take


However, anyone feel free to vocally support shitcoins in order to save Bitcoin from the state..
But I think that logic is flawed.
It makes only sense, if you are a shitcoiner and don't get the difference between Bitcoin and shitcoins... but even Gensler gets it, what brings me back to my OP



Edit:
You think he will stop at shitcoins...that's laughable.

maybe I got your writing wrong idk...

I think as for now Gensler stopped at shitcoins, because Bitcoin is no security.  And that is good for BTC.  
I don't know how he will act in the future.. maybe he will get pressured by "someone" to attack BTC as well... who knows ... I'll be watching Wink



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