Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Not posted in a while just trucking away with dca and stacking. Was out in the world enjoying life and started to notice Btc in general life, from billboards, graffiti, bitcoin atms etc. I’m not sure if it was always there or not but what do we think about this type of engagement with Joe Public. I wonder has anyone found their way here from something like seeing a btc atm in their local area.

I’m having some serious internal debates on whether to over allocate into Btc this year, I had set some targets around totals with what I felt was balanced and am approaching these way sooner than I thought was possible. With WO’s who have over allocated before any learnings to help me with my own decisions?

Another one been wrestling with is continue to allocate same during a bull and new ath, or under allocate for that time. I see comments about oh know if you bought at the top it’s bad but wouldn’t all dca’rs have bought at the top?

Well lets pretend your investment stack of buckets is 20k

if you are under 50 and you are 18k not btc  2k btc

adding just BTC for the rest of the year could be a good idea.

The ratios of your investments could go from:

 10% btc 90 % not BTC
to
 20% BTC 80% not BTC

the younger you are the harder you could push BTC

Just remember investment money is more or less what you can afford to lose or hodl for a long time.

Thanks for the response! I set it at 5% and figured out I can increase it to about 13% without any impact this year. Next year can move it to 20%, so like 20% of my fun money goes to Btc, and 80% to other investments.

The bit I’m wondering too, is in the year it breaks the current ath should I reduce allocation for dca(don’t stop it)and put aside for buying on the way down or just keep going with current allocation.

One miner q for you do you hold much weight in price to mine 1btc that the big miners are sharing to the SEC each q. Is it realistic the price to mine is currently in that 20-30k range? I’m not sure if it’s a true correlation but the bottoms in cycles seem to be really close to the avg price to mine 1btc. I wonder is this a better way to understand true bottom Vs stating it’s some %drop range from ath’s

Its hard to answer that cost to mine a btc question. But I will try.

An established miner with gear paid off.
Lets say he has 400 s19 pros. All paid off.

400 x 110 = 44000 th
they burn 75kwatts each day for each one.

or 30000 kwatts a day for 400 .

110 x 7.2 cents = $7.92 a day for 1 unit
  75 x 5 cent power cost = $3.75 for 1 unit

4.17 profit a day right now today for 1 miner
400 x 4.17 = 1668 dollars a day for all 400 miners

So in 19 days boom a Btc. pure profit.

or 19 x 400 x 7.92 = $60192  worth of btc earned which is 2 coins
19 x 400 x 3.75 =  $28500 in power spent which is under 1 coin.

now what did I skip cost of the gear as My example is with paid off gear.
I also skipped labor for those 19 days.
I also skipped cooling for those 19 days.
I also skipped cost of your building

And I used 5 cent power to calculate power cost.

Gear is not a sunk cost as gear lasts 2-5 years must be churned and replaced.
Your building may be paid off and has at least 20 years life in it.

I am not a big miner I may have 100 units of gear.
All paid
one or two are always broken
Lots of labor.

But runups are glorious and mining becomes a lot of fun.

At the moment its a grind.

You need under 8 cents power cost to be in the black.
and 5 cents power cost to be doing well.

Also I am using no loan examples.

If you carry loans to get your gear you need 2-5 cent power to survive.

Very good...clearly shows that this is a cost of production aka electricity cost game right now and later on would require at least doubling of the price to maintain profitability even with 5c power. If no price doubling within the next 8-10 mo, then miners would be negatively affected.

My residential power is 12c now so I cannot mine even if wanted to....it is just not profitable.

[JayJuanGee]

Has Bitstamp changed the look of its Tradeview page? I am not able to make the chart fill the page horizontally anymore. The orderbook and the order entry form take valuable horizontal space beside the chart. Previously, they could be put below it. I'm not logging on - just using the public tradeview page.

Anyone know if it can be fixed?

Here is the Bitstamp BTCUSD chart. It can be made to fill the page.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

Did you move the goal posts on us?

Or, are you merely thinking outside of the box?

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Xinarae*]

🚀🔥 #Bitcoin  bear market is over.   The worst is behind us.  Liquidity will swoop into #BTC  soon.  Get ready for liftoff. 📈🌊💪

 #HODL



Source.

[goldkingcoiner]

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this

I think that Bitcoin will keep rising in value, because unlike fiat, there is no infinite printing mechanism. With Bitcoin, there is a limited supply. However, there is a "people losing access to wallets" (boating accident) or "wallets losing access to people" (real boating accident) mechanism. In either case the Bitcoin in those wallets will never be touched again. We might as well consider them lost "to the void" forever. This is a kind of burning mechanism which virtually decreases the supply of Bitcoin, which increases the value.  

Bitcoin will go higher than 600k USD, but 600k USD won't be worth as much as it is now. Better stick with Bitcoin.

[jojo69]

Here is the Bitstamp BTCUSD chart. It can be made to fill the page.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Out of mind]

Bitcoin to $100k - $1m?

https://youtu.be/iuf69tureKc


Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Guys!  There just may be a way to stick around for the final Bitcoin halving...

https://www.businessinsider.nl/a-46000-year-old-worm-found-in-siberian-permafrost-was-brought-back-to-life-and-started-having-babies/

"A 46,000-year-old worm found in Siberian permafrost was brought back to life, and started having babies

 Scientists discovered a female microscopic roundworm
 that has been stuck deep in Siberian permafrost for
 46,000 years, the Washington Post reported. When
 they revived it, the worm started having babies via a
 process called parthenogenesis, which doesn't
 require a mate..."

 I wouldn't recommend you immediately begin parthenogenesis when you're revived though...  check the bitcoin price first.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[HelliumZ]

Guys!  There just may be a way to stick around for the final Bitcoin halving...

https://www.businessinsider.nl/a-46000-year-old-worm-found-in-siberian-permafrost-was-brought-back-to-life-and-started-having-babies/

"A 46,000-year-old worm found in Siberian permafrost was brought back to life, and started having babies

 Scientists discovered a female microscopic roundworm
 that has been stuck deep in Siberian permafrost for
 46,000 years, the Washington Post reported. When
 they revived it, the worm started having babies via a
 process called parthenogenesis, which doesn't
 require a mate..."

 I wouldn't recommend you immediately begin parthenogenesis when you're revived though...  check the bitcoin price first.

Once Bitcoin goes dormant, will it be possible to revive Bitcoin?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[FinePoine0]

Bitcoin's halving is less than a year away - how high will the price go?

The most exciting property of Bitcoin (from an investment perspective) is “increasing scarcity.”  Bitcoin is the first (and only) asset in history that offers a reliable guarantee of increasing scarcity in its supply issuance.



This is Bitcoin’s supply issuance schedule.  What the hell does that mean?  Well, the day that Bitcoin launched in January 2009… there were 0 Bitcoin in existence.  Eventually, there will be a hardcapped, absolute maximum of 21M Bitcoin in existence.  But how do you go from 0 to 21M?


Which is why each halving is so exciting for Bitcoin holders.

Let’s assume that Bitcoin’s price stays at $30k/coin until the next halving in late April 2024.  When the halving occurs at block 840,000, suddenly there will be half as much supply being created and going out into the market to meet incoming demand.



There will only be $450M of Bitcoin being created each month, but $900M of demand.  This is a guaranteed, predictable, reliable supply shortage.  It will begin in April 2024.

Source link: https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/bitcoins-halving-is-less-than-a-year

[Samrean]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[God Of Thunder]

Not posted in a while just trucking away with dca and stacking. Was out in the world enjoying life and started to notice Btc in general life, from billboards, graffiti, bitcoin atms etc. I’m not sure if it was always there or not but what do we think about this type of engagement with Joe Public. I wonder has anyone found their way here from something like seeing a btc atm in their local area.

I’m having some serious internal debates on whether to over allocate into Btc this year, I had set some targets around totals with what I felt was balanced and am approaching these way sooner than I thought was possible. With WO’s who have over allocated before any learnings to help me with my own decisions?

Another one been wrestling with is continue to allocate same during a bull and new ath, or under allocate for that time. I see comments about oh know if you bought at the top it’s bad but wouldn’t all dca’rs have bought at the top?

Well lets pretend your investment stack of buckets is 20k

if you are under 50 and you are 18k not btc  2k btc

adding just BTC for the rest of the year could be a good idea.

The ratios of your investments could go from:

 10% btc 90 % not BTC
to
 20% BTC 80% not BTC

the younger you are the harder you could push BTC

Just remember investment money is more or less what you can afford to lose or hodl for a long time.

Thanks for the response! I set it at 5% and figured out I can increase it to about 13% without any impact this year. Next year can move it to 20%, so like 20% of my fun money goes to Btc, and 80% to other investments.

The bit I’m wondering too, is in the year it breaks the current ath should I reduce allocation for dca(don’t stop it)and put aside for buying on the way down or just keep going with current allocation.

One miner q for you do you hold much weight in price to mine 1btc that the big miners are sharing to the SEC each q. Is it realistic the price to mine is currently in that 20-30k range? I’m not sure if it’s a true correlation but the bottoms in cycles seem to be really close to the avg price to mine 1btc. I wonder is this a better way to understand true bottom Vs stating it’s some %drop range from ath’s

Its hard to answer that cost to mine a btc question. But I will try.

An established miner with gear paid off.
Lets say he has 400 s19 pros. All paid off.

400 x 110 = 44000 th
they burn 75kwatts each day for each one.

or 30000 kwatts a day for 400 .

110 x 7.2 cents = $7.92 a day for 1 unit
  75 x 5 cent power cost = $3.75 for 1 unit

4.17 profit a day right now today for 1 miner
400 x 4.17 = 1668 dollars a day for all 400 miners

So in 19 days boom a Btc. pure profit.

or 19 x 400 x 7.92 = $60192  worth of btc earned which is 2 coins
19 x 400 x 3.75 =  $28500 in power spent which is under 1 coin.

now what did I skip cost of the gear as My example is with paid off gear.
I also skipped labor for those 19 days.
I also skipped cooling for those 19 days.
I also skipped cost of your building

And I used 5 cent power to calculate power cost.

Gear is not a sunk cost as gear lasts 2-5 years must be churned and replaced.
Your building may be paid off and has at least 20 years life in it.

I am not a big miner I may have 100 units of gear.
All paid
one or two are always broken
Lots of labor.

But runups are glorious and mining becomes a lot of fun.

At the moment its a grind.

You need under 8 cents power cost to be in the black.
and 5 cents power cost to be doing well.

Also I am using no loan examples.

If you carry loans to get your gear you need 2-5 cent power to survive.

Very good...clearly shows that this is a cost of production aka electricity cost game right now and later on would require at least doubling of the price to maintain profitability even with 5c power. If no price doubling within the next 8-10 mo, then miners would be negatively affected.

My residential power is 12c now so I cannot mine even if wanted to....it is just not profitable.

So even if a miner is hardcore Bitcoiner, they won't be able to mine if power costs raises and no price increase. we have a couple of months before the halving event. We may see price hikes after the halving event. Before the event, miners still get 6.25 per block and profitability will remain the same as phill described. But, let's say the halving event split the block reward but the BTC price did not double, the profitability may split as well. The question is, how many miners will continue mining without profit? After all, everyone is looking for profit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

whole new low in twitterposting right here. WTF does this have to do with anything remotely relevant in this thread? Please don't tell me its the boobs.

Posting on WO just for the sake of Merits and that too by so many alts is annoying.

So you agree that those who mostly posts in WO for merits are alts of each other and they are annoying. Rightly said.
Can you give the names of those accounts who are alts and doing this stuff ?

oh the irony

OK I know me whinging at merit farmers is getting old so I'm just putting all of them on ignore from now on... Those who could stop them don't want to. So the new paradigm is WO + merit farmers and I'll just live with it.

[d_eddie]

Here is the Bitstamp BTCUSD chart. It can be made to fill the page.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

Firefox: Dark mode extension, Filter+ mode



You're welcome