Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gallianooo]

Weekly and Monthly charts seem to show more and more 25Kish to find new liquidity...

Down, sideway, then BIG UP... Let's see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

Price... seriously... pissing... me... off... right... now... you... guys...

auuuuggghhhh

[JayJuanGee]

from yahoo finance

2015 to 2016 1/2 ing
Jan  1  320
feb  5  227
mar 5  272
apr  2  247
may 7 229
jun  4 225
jul  2  258
aug 6  281
sept 3 229
oct   1 236
nov  5 408
dec  3  359
Jan  7  430
Feb 4  370
Mar 3  423
Apr 7  423
May 5 446
Jun 2  536
Jul  7  678

July 9 663 1/2ing price

2023 to 2024

Jan 1 16600
Feb 1 23700
Mar 1 23600
Apr 1 28400
May1 28000
Jun 1 26800
Jul  1 30500
Aug 1 29300

if this pattern matches 2015-2016

We hit 42-44k in nov 2023
and 69-71k near the 1/2 ing next year

since we have been at 42 and 44 and 69 k I do not think it is unreasonable to see it again.

Yeah but $69/$71k is right in the middle of noman's land.  Wouldn't it be unreliable to be suggesting some places in the middle of noman's land as being somewhere where we might be at a particular time, since the mere idea of noman's land is a tendency to play out as a kind of pass through range.

Sure, you might coincidentally get your price guessing nostradamus wannabe correct, but it would seem more solid to attempt to design your predictions on various potential plateau price locations rather than probable pass through price locations.

I got it...Mr Market for some unknown reason wants to royally piss off M. Saylor by hovering over his bitcoin average buying price (almost exactly).
That explains the 29.3+/-0.2K conundrum (or flatline if you like this term better).
No matter, MSTR is still "flying".

Seems like a coincidence more than anything - even if their might be some BIG players with BTC price directional desires around such price point.

It is nice to be currently floating (ballpark spot price range = $28,400 to $31k^**) $largely 5%-15% above the 200-week moving average (currently $27,128), and really a lot of 2015 was floating ball-parkedly in similar levels above the 200-week moving average.. and surely this year is not really as much like 2015 because the BTC price spent a whole shit-ton of time floating below the 200-week moving average (even while the 200-week moving average never turned negative), but there were a couple of months that the price was 20% to 35% below the then 200-week moving average.

**note I am largely just making up these number ranges, and sure they are likely a wwwweeeeeee bit of a moving target, even though I am still suggesting that my "don't wake me up price range" is still currently in the ballpark of $25k to $35k.

By the way the 200-week moving average is currently moving up at about $15 per day, but when we were in the early November 2022 through early January 2023 doldrums, the 200-week moving average was only moving up around $10 per day... maybe on a percentage basis, there might not be much if any change in the slope, but it still feels good man to see the substantive numbers moving up to such an extent, which just seems like a kind of cushion in terms of how much downity that it might well take to drag such 200-week moving average back down to ONLY going up $10 per day, if that were even reasonably probable to happen.. doesn't seem like it, but I am personally not going to completely rule it out.. even though it seems that our current dynamics continues to contribute towards price pressures in which the 200-week moving average is ongoingly moving up in terms of giving us higher and higher amounts in which it is tending to rise each day - a difficult dynamic to fight, even for the bitcoin hating/fearing beartards.  

Oh fuck everything about this $28k action. Bah.
Shenanigans.

Seems a little like things are starting to break down. Usually that’s a buy the dip moment. I guess we’ll see…

There does not seem to be any reasons to not be buying.. even though some people do actually consider bitcoin as being "topish," but it seems to me that those with such "topish" perspectives are not really understanding bitcoin very well.. including getting some kind of realistic assessment in regards to how bitcoin's current actual price seems to be relating to various happenings in the current macro-world.  

Another thing is that we likely realize that somewhere in the ballpark of 99% of normies are still not currently buying bitcoin, and gosh I wonder what is the percentage of institutions, rich peeps and governments?  

It's not easy to really know the data - even though there likely is some data - but I get the sense that even institutions, rich peeps and governments are not more than a percentage or two of them into bitcoin, even though continuously there are some bigger and BIGGER players coming out of the woodwork and stating that they have some bitcoin exposure (how much? is another question, and can you actually believe them?  Gotta have doubts about any of those "actual exposure" numbers being very high.. but hey, what do I know?... it is not like I am presenting actual data beyond my own osmosis like sense of things - which may or may not be as accurate as I would prefer it to be).

[philipma1957]

Price... seriously... pissing... me... off... right... now... you... guys...

auuuuggghhhh

you talked me into buying some

[hafiztalha]

JUST IN: 🇦🇪 $500 billion banking giant Nomura wins full license to offer #bitcoin  BTC  services in Dubai


Source

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Who is John Galt?]

Usual WO game: where is fillippone and what is he looking at?
Compulsory WO sign in the picture.

In this photo, fillippone is standing on the Esplanade de la Pantiéro in Cannes with the view on the building complex that houses the Palais des Festivals et des Congrès. And he is looking, it seems, at a sunbathing woman.

[JayJuanGee]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

I am unsure if I have anything to do with the current and next difficulties.
But the source you provided has explained the difficulty and how it is calculated.
There was an interesting bug report and fun fact as well.

Thanks for the source, BTW.

Yep.. It is good to learn some of these various concepts, and sometimes dive in deeper at points in which you might be ready to attempt to learn more about the topic.  

There might be threads on these kinds of topics that you would like to follow or there might be interviews/podcasts in which representations are being made that may or may not be accurate, and in order to engage in some kinds of critical thinking in regards to information that you are absorbing, you sometimes need to try to figure out what they are talking about and to see if there might be some easy explanation somewhere that helps you to get the foundation correct, and then to be able to build upon that foundation - including that the topic might become more interesting (or even understanding better what they might be talking about when various glitches might be found - as you suggested bugs that arise from time to time.. whether it is in relation to the difficulty adjustment or some other aspect of bitcoin, and surely I frequently proclaim to not be very technically educated regarding a variety of the bitcoin topics, yet at the same time, that does not necessarily mean that those who are better technically educated are correct when they make technical assertions that seem to get in the way of various basic incentives or some other stronger dynamic that might be pushing what is happening and/or what is likely to happen - including considering and weighing various known unknowns as well as attempting to account for unknown unknowns too.. and how much weight these scenarios might get when projecting them out, whether we are projecting out 6 months from now or attempting to project out 32/33 years - 8-ish halvenings from now).

My typical day:
wake up
get coffee and phone
jump back in bed to check the news while drinking

if  (btc down)
get dressed and walk out of the house like a normal person

if (btc up)
get dressed and walk out of the house like a normal person

It seems that today is going to be as good as any other...

That's what aliens do to try to appear "normal."

Not that I claim to know any aliens or even believe in such.

Weekly and Monthly charts seem to show more and more 25Kish to find new liquidity...

Down, sideway, then BIG UP... Let's see.

Charts say?  How did that work for you last time?

hahahahahaha


You are potentially saying 12% to 15% down from our current price and then even sideways for a bit at those prices (whew.. that would be pretty bearish.. but hey anything can happen right), and then after that we are able to go up... so our current dippening down within the upper $28ks, is not enough?

Hopefully you are not betting too much on those squigglies that may or may not happen, even though I do recognize that sometimes if we are flat for a while, there might be a relatively BIG dip down prior to going up, but just because that sometimes happens does not mean that such a thing will happen, and you are not even suggesting a BIG dip down.. you are suggesting a dip down and then stay down.. which sure, it could happen, but it sounds more like a wish than any kind of an objective prediction that has higher than 50/50 odds of taking place... though we know that you are not really very good at getting your odds right, and that's why you are still holding fiat from your so far 2022/2023 inabilities to buy below $15.5k...

Price... seriously... pissing... me... off... right... now... you... guys...

auuuuggghhhh

Chill

Chill


What's the BIG deal?


We are not even in wake me up territory, yet.


In order to get into wake me up territory, we would likely need to experience something like gallianooo's above prediction to come true.

In udder wurdz:

Chill.


aka Calm dee fuck down.

[ZAINmalik75]

[HelliumZ]

Hello WO gang.
Observing 28,874@stamp.

Usual WO game: where is fillippone and what is he looking at?
Compulsory WO sign in the picture.

fillippone likes Sunbathing women!!!

[Out of mind]

Tether bought 2,310 #BitcoinBTC ($70mn) in Q2, raising stacks from 52,698 #Bitcoin ($1.5bn) in Q1 to 55,008 #Bitcoin  ($1.67bn).

Despite the declared purpose earlier this year of investing 15% of profits in #Bitcoin data shows they've invested only 7% !
^Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Price... seriously... pissing... me... off... right... now... you... guys...

auuuuggghhhh

Same.

Pretty crap bollocks.

[fillippone]

Tether bought 2,310 #BitcoinBTC ($70mn) in Q2, raising stacks from 52,698 #Bitcoin ($1.5bn) in Q1 to 55,008 #Bitcoin  ($1.67bn).

Despite the declared purpose earlier this year of investing 15% of profits in #Bitcoin data shows they've invested only 7% !
^Source

Interesting.
I noticed from their statement they missed their purchase goal, but I wasn’t able to dig further.

Can you point the exact document where you saw those exact numbers?

[Who is John Galt?]

Hello WO gang.
Observing 28,874@stamp.

Usual WO game: where is fillippone and what is he looking at?
Compulsory WO sign in the picture.

fillippone likes Sunbathing women!!!

Why not? Summer, beautiful coastal town, sunbathing women... There aren't many who would be against it...

At first it seemed to me that the ferris wheel was similar to the one in Rimini, and I spent an hour trying to find pictures that would have the same lights in the marina there as in the photo taken by fillippone. The street lights in the marina of Rimini are different, but in the end I realized that no amount of my perseverance would make the Cannes lights move to Rimini, and I had to look for another option.

[Who is John Galt?]

Tether bought 2,310 #BitcoinBTC ($70mn) in Q2, raising stacks from 52,698 #Bitcoin ($1.5bn) in Q1 to 55,008 #Bitcoin  ($1.67bn).

Despite the declared purpose earlier this year of investing 15% of profits in #Bitcoin data shows they've invested only 7% !
^Source

Interesting.
I noticed from their statement they missed their purchase goal, but I wasn’t able to dig further.

Can you point the exact document where you saw those exact numbers?

He is unlikely to respond, he usually only copies pictures and texts from Twitter.

And this table appears to be taken from a BDO audit report dated yesterday. The full report can be read here https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/63oJePOHqIvrcnXWMPZ1M0/4cfaf2e7cdf80c30b17fdc70faaf741f/ESO.03.01_Std_ISAE_3000R_Opinion_30-06-2023_BDO_Tether_CRR.pdf.

[fillippone]

He is unlikely to respond, he usually only copies pictures and texts from Twitter.

And this table appears to be taken from a BDO audit report dated yesterday. The full report can be read here https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/63oJePOHqIvrcnXWMPZ1M0/4cfaf2e7cdf80c30b17fdc70faaf741f/ESO.03.01_Std_ISAE_3000R_Opinion_30-06-2023_BDO_Tether_CRR.pdf.

That’s why I asked.
I read that report, but I wasn’t able to find those information on that report.
Maybe I read it too quickly.

[philipma1957]

He is unlikely to respond, he usually only copies pictures and texts from Twitter.

And this table appears to be taken from a BDO audit report dated yesterday. The full report can be read here https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/63oJePOHqIvrcnXWMPZ1M0/4cfaf2e7cdf80c30b17fdc70faaf741f/ESO.03.01_Std_ISAE_3000R_Opinion_30-06-2023_BDO_Tether_CRR.pdf.

That’s why I asked.
I read that report, but I wasn’t able to find those information on that report.
Maybe I read it too quickly.

page 7 of the pdf above.