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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 1 (5.9%)
$75K to $80K - 0 (0%)
$80K to $85K - 0 (0%)
$85K to $90K - 4 (23.5%)
$90K to $95K - 5 (29.4%)
$95K to $100K - 2 (11.8%)
>$100K - 5 (29.4%)
Total Voters: 17

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26491905 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Out of mind
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July 08, 2023, 04:18:18 PM

Love is telling your loved ones to buy #bitcoin   


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Titanic 1997 movie
Woo... Best scene  Grin
Rose is looking at Jack's nude art pictures Grin
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July 08, 2023, 04:35:25 PM
Last edit: July 08, 2023, 04:49:41 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by El duderino_ (11), xhomerx10 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

My RIA sent me this. He said Bitcoin to $1m by 2030.

Source.
I am also hopeful that it will be a $1million touch one day.

That looks like a stock to flow chart that has it's current plateau shifted down (from $100k-ish where it used to be to something in the $60k territory), and that does seem to be a better representation of where we are at, and where we might go from here - however, stock to flow's chart also had looked pretty good with the $100k-ish as the plateau for this cycle.. which ended up not happening.. so therefore the plateau seems to have had needed to be shifted down in order to account for the real facts rather than the speculative facts that did not end up playing out.

Personally, I don't find this unreasonable to use the same ideas and frame work and then shift them around somewhat in order to account for facts as they play out, which ends up not being exactly scientific, but fuck science anyhow.. there is no real science that is going to predict the future with any certainty - unless it were to just get lucky, because humans are not machines (at least most of us are not), and we are not 100% predictable, and maybe at best we might be in the ballpark of 50%-ish predictable?  perhaps?

Anyhow that chart looks pretty reasonable - and if the price does not end up performing up to the level of the curve trajectories, then maybe the trajectories have to be shifted down again.. and there could be some time in the future in which we end up having multiple shifting down of the trajectory, and then at some point later down the road, the trajectory has to be shifted up because it might have had been being artificially held down for way longer than it should have had been, and it ends up regressing to where it should have had been..  Who knows?  except directionally, some of us seem to have some ideas that the direction remains up, even though most of us don't really seem to know by how much and when even though we have some approximations... some people claim to know better (or more) than others, and surely each of us are free to exude our level of confidence to the degree that we believe is appropriate.. but still seems to be a wee bit too arrogant to claim too much concreteness in making these kinds of claims and even charts can be provided as guides (and with qualifications rather than being considered as "have to happen like that" (certainties).  

The saga continues

Bitcoin at $30: "I'm too late"
Bitcoin at $6: "It failed"
Bitcoin at $900: "I'm too late”
Bitcoin at $200: "It failed"
Bitcoin at $17,000: "I'm too late"
Bitcoin at $3,500: "It failed"
Bitcoin at $69,000: "I'm too late”
Bitcoin at $18,000: “It failed”


https://twitter.com/TitodJOriginal/status/1677334817313021954
https://twitter.com/CooliganFields/status/1677295173355618304

I think that it is better to say that you have to act... and you have to continue to act.. which might be similar to making a decision.. and acting brings the decision to fruition.. but it is not just a one time act, it is a continuous act.. because once you start, you have to continue to implement on a regular basis - which is part of the reason that lump sum just does not seem to work in terms of solidifying the ongoing preference (or would it be need?) to reinforce the decision over and over and over.. which builds conviction.. and sure putting $10k into bitcoin in 2015 may well have been fine and dandy to get you 33 BTC, but if you put $5k into bitcoin in 2015 (and got 16.5BTC, and then continued to buy $100 worth of BTC per week for the next 8 years up until now, you would have invested way more into BTC, which would have been $46,800 ($5k initial investment + $41,800 over then next 8 years), and you would have ended up with more BTC, which would have been about 40.5 BTC (16.5 BTC for the initial investment and then an additional 24 BTC over the next 8 years).  7.5 more BTC by combining lump sum investing with ongoing DCA that would have cost you $31.8k more in terms of your overall investment than the amount of a lump sum investment that would have had been made in 2015 (in this hypothetical).

Sure lump sum investing that would have had an average cost of $300 per BTC would have been more profitable on a percentage invested versus the amount that would have been put into the combination of lump sum and DCA (an average cost per BTC of about $1,156), but the vast majority of normies do not have the finances and/or the psychology to lump sum invest into anything (especially something like bitcoin during a long and extended period - especially in 2015 - not that we can go back to 2015 anyhow - except for attempting to engage in theoretical "what if" exercises)...

By the way, there can also be ways to attempt to front load any investment, and that is part of the reason that I showed my above example of investing $5k from the start and then going into DCA - however there may well also be limitations that real world people (normies) suffer in terms of their own cashflow, and it may well end up being the case that the longer that they are working then the more likely they can increase their pay and to increase their discretionary income.. but even those kinds of assumptions are not always true when it comes to problematic periods that people might face in terms of their own cashflows and the extent to which they are able to generate extra into the future or they might end up in careers in which they are ongoingly being undermined and their income is not even keeping up with the cost of living... so it is not always safe to make too many assumptions in regards to how the circumstances (including cashflows) of individuals might change over the years, even if we might presume to know other things about such persons.
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July 08, 2023, 05:03:26 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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July 08, 2023, 05:40:32 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

 Why would we care about JPMorgan's beliefs?  They have already missed the boat a few times on Bitcoin.  As an aside, Sonali Basak is a good-looking woman... I wonder if she has any bitcoin.
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July 08, 2023, 05:45:38 PM

It is estimated that 3M #bitcoinBTC has been lost forever.
source
JayJuanGee
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July 08, 2023, 05:54:26 PM

Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902
It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.
People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.
Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.
See we can agree on a few things. Grin

I will bite my tongue.... for the moment... I should not be overly sassy towards my elders...

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

You are gravitating on the changes in the rates, and I was gravitating upon how the housing sales' season might play into these matters, so if the interest rates are at or near their top, then those kinds of up and down changes (even if there is a pivot) may well not likely change the trajectory that people already find that they are not able to sell houses all summer long and maybe no one really wants to come down significantly in their prices, but by the end of the housing sales season (August/September) perhaps a decent number of folks start to panic.. and then by the time we are in November we are in off season, so why would housing start to boom during off season.. even if there are favorable interest rates, the next season would not start until March or so of the following year (2024).
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July 08, 2023, 05:55:40 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10)

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July 08, 2023, 06:04:55 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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July 08, 2023, 07:48:48 PM



Long story Short for the past few months.
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July 08, 2023, 07:53:59 PM

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

Does his statement matter? Because what if he says something in the completely opposite manner it would be just a statement so take it as a statement. I would like to hear some statements from a B2B platform like Alibaba there were a few rumors that the new appointing manager is pro Bitcoin (Just imagine if they take Bitcoin as their payment option it will be trend starter).
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July 08, 2023, 08:04:51 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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July 08, 2023, 08:52:17 PM

Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902
It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things. Grin

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

One thing I've learned after a few decades of real estate investing is that the housing market moves extremely slow.  It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  We all see rates are too high and houses are unaffordable.  We all see the middle class being squeezed with inflation.  We're all aware that houses shot up in price mainly because banks were buying them like crazy in anticipation of high inflation.  The only thing keeping people in their houses right now is that inflation coupled with investment has buoyed housing prices.  I personally think without high inflation keeping prices high, we would be seeing a 2008 style crash.  As it is, we'll likely see a correction but stubborn inflation will limit it, and if the fed keeps rates high and jobs numbers start to turn south, things could get bad and remain that way for a couple years.
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July 08, 2023, 09:01:22 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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July 08, 2023, 09:07:44 PM
Last edit: July 09, 2023, 03:24:21 AM by Biodom

Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902
It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things. Grin

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

One thing I've learned after a few decades of real estate investing is that the housing market moves extremely slow.  It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  We all see rates are too high and houses are unaffordable.  We all see the middle class being squeezed with inflation.  We're all aware that houses shot up in price mainly because banks were buying them like crazy in anticipation of high inflation.  The only thing keeping people in their houses right now is that inflation coupled with investment has buoyed housing prices.  I personally think without high inflation keeping prices high, we would be seeing a 2008 style crash.  As it is, we'll likely see a correction but stubborn inflation will limit it, and if the fed keeps rates high and jobs numbers start to turn south, things could get bad and remain that way for a couple years.

Yeah..all things considered, I would be surprised if we did not re-visit the pre-March 2020 prices, but it could take 5-7 years.
Some people are saying "wait until mortgage interest rate goes back to 5%", suggesting that it would inflate the price even more, but who would be able to afford it?
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July 08, 2023, 10:49:59 PM

Pick your lucky number.

2010: I have only 600 bitcoins

2014: 21 #btc    = 1M club

2018: you need 6.15 #btc   

2022: a whole #bitcoin   

2026: 21 million #sats is the new special club

2030: 1 million #sats

Source
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July 09, 2023, 12:05:45 AM



Fiat Not Hold   But   Best Bitcoin Hodl..
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July 09, 2023, 12:25:09 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (2)

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

 Why would we care about JPMorgan's beliefs?  They have already missed the boat a few times on Bitcoin.  As an aside, Sonali Basak is a good-looking woman... I wonder if she has any bitcoin.


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July 09, 2023, 12:59:43 AM

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

 Why would we care about JPMorgan's beliefs?  They have already missed the boat a few times on Bitcoin.  As an aside, Sonali Basak is a good-looking woman... I wonder if she has any bitcoin.


Forget about JPMorgan, The data said Bitcoin etf is F*cking growing  Cool Sonali Basak is indeed a good-looking woman I bet she has a bitcoin  Grin

- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/best-bitcoin-etfs/



Need this franchise in town  Grin Cool
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July 09, 2023, 01:09:18 AM

A Bitcoin education institute has been launched in South Africa called "Bitcoin Ekasi".



"Bitcoin Ekasi" institute will teach English among other subjects to the youth.  
And will provide bitcoin education to youth groups of adults.

(Bitcoin Ekasi) organization has already added ten business organizations for Bitcoin in this area. The educational institution has already contracted 20 youngsters and aims to round up their presence in the near future. And it is true that the organization will go further because the desire of people for Bitcoin education is high especially the youth.

Details: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-ekasi-launches-education-center-in-south-africa
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