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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26764422 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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July 23, 2023, 01:33:49 PM
Merited by lightfoot (4), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

The reason for my post should be seen in context, and philip has frequently repeated his nonsense that bitcoin is likely going to show broken incentives in around 2050/2060 because the mining rewards are going to be so low that miners are not going to want to mine bitcoin and they will be incentivized to mine POW shitcoins such as litecoin and doggie coin.. and saying dumb shit like that.. so I am reinforcing his dumb ideas through my post.
Bitcoin will grow much more in price then. The block reward will be 0.02441406 in 2052. Currently, the miners getting around $187K for a block; who knows what will be the bitcoin price in 2052? Maybe 0.0244 won't be worth $187K. Maybe this is what he is fearing.

my fear is second layer will not be fixed properly.

if a block is 0.0244 btc and it is worth 244,000 that would mean a coin is 10 million.

the smallest fee is about 227 sats. so the smallest you pay for a fee is. $ 227

This means btc will need tweaks to work.

I am not going to get into miners growing and growing to protect btc.

but if coins are 10 million and say 20.5 million are mined we have a cap of

205 million at ten bucks
2050 million at one hundred bucks
20.500  billion at one thousand
205.00 billion at ten thousand
2.0500 trillion at 100 thousand
20.500 trillion at 1 million
205.00 trillion at 10 million

so a you want lots of miners to protect 205 trillion

lets say gear does 5 watts in 2056 much like cars and miles per gallon there is a limit to how low watts a miner uses.

so if gear does 30 now  the same amount of units and power the diff jumps to 320 trillion but no extra value  
to the entire network’s infrastructure.

mining infrastructure must grow to protect the new higher cap.

make it stagnant and the value of the cap is poorly protected.

so if market cap is 550 billion and grows to 200 trillion by 2052.

miner infrastructure of 10 billion  should be. 4 trillion

55 to 1 . coin to gear now.

50 to 4 coin to gear in the future.

roughly 400 to 1 more infrastructure and 6 to 1 efficient means diff is not 6x it is 2400x

right now we burn  about 10,000 megawatts an hour.

we are not going to scale to 24,000,000 megawatts.

just one problem.

and if cold fusion works and we have that much power why spend it mining a vanishing coin

when ltc/doge is designed to never vanish.

BTW This is why JJG always attacks me as he knows that long term on paper right now.

LTC/Doge has a better design than BTC.

but beta was said to be better than vhs.

So BTC can still prevail.

I stack more BTC than Doge and LTC.

 Daddy, what were you doing during the Format Wars?



 Betamax was technologically, ever-so-slightly better than VHS; the tapes were smaller, there was less noise and the resolution was slightly, theoretically higher.  It also had first mover advantage by ~2 years.  The problem?  It was proprietary - controlled by one corporation: Sony and their licensing fees kept the price higher.  JVC (Japan Victor Corp) released VHS as an opensource collaboration and so VHS won out... of course they're both dead now  Embarrassed   Oops, I guess there's no applicable lesson here for Bitcoin!


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July 23, 2023, 02:00:18 PM


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Explanation
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July 23, 2023, 02:16:52 PM

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July 23, 2023, 02:19:31 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), Gachapin (1)

Betamax was technologically, ever-so-slightly better than VHS; the tapes were smaller, there was less noise and the resolution was slightly, theoretically higher.  It also had first mover advantage by ~2 years.  The problem?  It was proprietary - controlled by one corporation: Sony and their licensing fees kept the price higher.  JVC (Japan Victor Corp) released VHS as an opensource collaboration and so VHS won out... of course they're both dead now  Embarrassed   Oops, I guess there's no applicable lesson here for Bitcoin!

Betamax also controlled licensing for tapes and did a lot to prevent porn from being distributed on Beta. VHS had no problem with porn, and here we are.

Big lesson there....
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July 23, 2023, 02:38:19 PM

Betamax was technologically, ever-so-slightly better than VHS; the tapes were smaller, there was less noise and the resolution was slightly, theoretically higher.  It also had first mover advantage by ~2 years.  The problem?  It was proprietary - controlled by one corporation: Sony and their licensing fees kept the price higher.  JVC (Japan Victor Corp) released VHS as an opensource collaboration and so VHS won out... of course they're both dead now  Embarrassed   Oops, I guess there's no applicable lesson here for Bitcoin!

Betamax also controlled licensing for tapes and did a lot to prevent porn from being distributed on Beta. VHS had no problem with porn, and here we are.

Big lesson there....

 Yay!  Lightfoot is back!
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July 23, 2023, 02:58:17 PM


https://twitter.com/ltngventures/status/1682752110977269762?t=WHBUnCMFP8kKQCYDGHyb2w&s=19
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Explanation
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July 23, 2023, 03:42:52 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


That's a fair point.
~

Today the 200-week moving average is right around $27k, so if we double it every 4 years then we would get.

2028 = $54k
...

2056 = $6,912k


In that scenario 0.0244 BTC would be worth around $168,653 ($6,912k * 0.244), so that number would be in the ballpark of $187k but that would not account for the likelihood that $187k would not be worth even close to that amount.. ..   Too complicated to resolve all of the accounting presumptions that would be needed to be made?

I added with you new year just 2026 = $216k.

I'm not an expert in all these things but my guess is that the target will exceed $200k in the next 4 years, I don't really know how it will happen, but if the past growth is 3-4x price growth then it will definitely exceed the target of $200k.




A new bitcoiner in world, Legend of next society.   Cheesy

Edited.
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Explanation
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July 23, 2023, 04:04:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

so often I read or hear that someone believes in Bitcoin... And every time I have this strange feeling, the feeling I get when I hear religious nutters making unfounded claims.

do these I-believe-in-Bitcoin-people actually realize that it's like saying "I believe in my refrigerator", "I believe in my shit flushing toilet", and so on?

Man, it's just a functioning "thing" that will be used by humans as long as it's beneficiary over alternatives...  no wonder Bitcoiners tend to be seen as cultists.

Nobody sees people as "toilet cultists", because they'd never want to live without it and value it over any alternative...


Let this thought be my replacement for a Sunday Haiku...

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July 23, 2023, 05:01:19 PM


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July 23, 2023, 05:18:26 PM

There is a time to go long, a time to go short, and a time to go fishing


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July 23, 2023, 05:20:55 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Who are these WOers,
Who praise DOGE and Litecoin?
Don't they know nuttin'?

I own some Litecoin.
Have held it for many years.
Currently in loss...

Same with Monero.
Still own about 30 coins.
Half their value lost...

So I say to all:
Don't be fooled by semantics.
One coin rules them all!

And yet if you still,
Give merits to said shitcoins,
Just flush when you're done!

#antishitcoineryhaikus
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July 23, 2023, 06:04:27 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Gachapin (1)

@MDBitcoin
BlackRock's Spot BTC ETF is a game-changer, capable of instigating an instant 150k #BTC  demand.

(Bringing at least $20B-40B in new demand)👀

Institutional FOMO on Bitcoin is not just possible, but a matter of time between 2023-2026.

Small to large nation FOMO is on the horizon, adding to the unpredictable yet promising price of Bitcoin.

Despite bearish takes on #Bitcoin  Twitter, the future growth of BTC is a narrative you can't afford to ignore.
https://twitter.com/mdbitcoin/status/1683173403308466176


I don’t think there is a better quote than the below to sum up what is about to happen -

“It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.”
— Satoshi Nakamoto
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July 23, 2023, 06:25:24 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

30k haiku
nice green candle takes us up
have a nice sunday
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July 23, 2023, 08:23:03 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

At JJG BTW  I have 4x BTC compared to the iBonds. I am fine with that.

You still put your yearly max into it $10k per person or whatever it was (is) into Ibonds, and worse yet, you were pumping that bullshit here... as if bitcoiners (newbies or otherwise) needed to have exposure a kind of dollar with "assured yield" - in spite of the bullshit that we knew about
1) the ongoing dollar printing,
2) the likely desperate status of the USA government/treasuries to lure more money into their shit products and
3) the fact that the BTC prices was then 15% to 35% below the 200-week moving depending at which points during those several months that you were pumping such bad advices for dollar exposure and dollar yields.

Another thing regarding your own personal feelings of need to have liquidity in dollars and stability likely due to your age, perhaps because you are already getting BTC income (regular cashflows) and also perhaps due to several of your earlier mistakes from 2012 to 2022 (and maybe even ongoing mistakes that are quite difficult to enumerate?  hahahahahaha) in terms your own failures to make emotionally neutral (rather than nostradamus wannabe) allocations to bitcoin, you may have contributed to some of your own desires to have higher exposures to the dollar than what would likely have had been a good balance for the vast majority of younger people who do not have similar situations as you and who likely need to be making sure that they are allocating value to (and getting a stake in / exposure to) bitcoin rather than questionable tricky (locked in) dollar yielding products..

...and some people/normies/newbies do not have a lot of extra discretionary value to be able to invest into bitcoin and so if they end up putting $10k into crappy dollar products for the year, then they end up diluting their bitcoin investment/allocation right when they probably should have had been attempting to be aggressive towards bitcoin.. or if not aggressive, at least not whimpy in terms of their bitcoin allocation and getting/maintaining and/or not losing a stake in bitcoin.  

I am not really wanting to suggest that it is good for newbies to necessarily bounce around between being aggressive, neutral and whimpy in terms of their approach to bitcoin.. because DCA tends to be a better strategy for many normie newbies (and you don't even need to be a normie newbie), and then the longer that s/he is into bitcoin, s/he can tailor his/her level of aggressiveness (or whimpiness) in accordance to his/her own personal particulars that may well not necessarily be very much tied to trying to figure out which way the BTC price might go in the short term but to attempt to be prepared for various BTC price directions that may well include supplementing the more beginner DCA strategies with buying on dips (rather than dumb shit like selling BTC when the BTC price had already corrected a lot (which seemed to have been what you did Philip and what you were recommending others to do) and is significantly below the 200-week moving average and expecting to buy BTC back cheaper.. which may or may not end up happening when the BTC price had already been quite low).

If I have 3 coins stacking
a mining farm
Some silver stacking
A home
a 401k
with 3 pensions which My wife and I do we are diversified not a big issue.

To talk about it not a big deal
To mention it on this thread not a big deal.

If I could I would sell the 3 pensions as they are all fed gov and I no longer trust the fed gov. but USA fed pensions are not allowed to sell.

Yes.. those pensions show that you are already overly-weighted into products that are dependent (if not overly dependent) upon the dollar... and for sure, I am not necessarily telling you to make any changes you old fart.  

But making recommendations for others to get or become dollar dependent merely because you are and you are inclined to continue to pump bullshit dollar products such as the IBond, when you are already considerably dollar dependent in your own personal situation, seems a bit strange, but whatever, you have to make your own balances for yourself, even though it does not make any sense to be suggesting that others put themselves into a similar kind of dollar dependency as you seem to be enjoying (or suffering through).. even though sure, maybe you do own some bitcoin too... and maybe your allocations in bitcoin are enough for your own situation?  perhaps? perhaps?

These kinds of allocation questions or even reallocation or tweaking questions are not easy questions for anyone to figure out various points that they might want to shift around their allocations, or even to attempt to start to weigh their allocations more in one direction or another, and even if you have various incomes, some of those incomes can be going into bitcoin or staying in bitcoin rather than staying into dollar related products. .and it is never really easy to figure out how much to let winners ride, to make lump sum changes, or to make incremental changes, even though personally I tend to weigh towards incrementalism that could take a while to rebalance depending on how much I am wanting to rebalance and in which direction..

..and surely it seems that if you do not have enough bitcoin, then you would DCA, as you seem to say that you are doing on a regular basis (whether it is enough bitcoin for you, that is for you to determine).. and buying on dips is also a good thing, and that seems to be the part that you are wanting to gloss over that you had been selling on dips rather than buying on dips, even though you can call them gambling plays that you were making in mid-to-late 2022 whatever you like.  

In 2021, and even early 2022, you had been all hot and bothered about how wonderful BTC was and you were buying like a mad man (or at least saying that you were buying between $30k and $50k), but then when the BTC price dropped below $20k, then you said that you were selling BTC in order to buy back cheaper.. so whatever, it is great that you have your ways of dealing with matters, but still seem to be quite far off from what would have had been better practices, which would have been to either keep buying BTC when the price went down or to just hold off buying BTC if you were running out of cash and wait and buy BTC upon further dips, if you were to have (or come across) any cash left to buy during those then dippening times.

In the end, some of us make various mistakes, and probably I am on your case more because you share ideas that sometimes spout out too much nonsense that links bitcoin to macrofactors or some other somewhat lame theories, so sure share them all that you like.. .and you are going to get back lash if it seems that you are pumping shitcoins and bad ideas, and I am not at any kind of point to claim that you are a troll or that you are being disingenuine.. but we can never completely know on the internet.. .

. and even though from my perspective, you pump a decent number of shitty ideas and shitcoins from time to time, you do tend to provide a decent amount of seemingly good world experience information too, so it is hard to proclaim that you don't personally believe some of the nonsense that you spout, and it is also within the realm of believability since I do sometimes come across people in the real world that have some of that same level of not so great ideas.. so maybe we can sort some of these matters out in this thread and in these here parts.. . to the extent that you are even making any sense for someone who has been in bitcoin for around 12 years by your own admission, and I am a kind of newbie, and barely coming upon a decade with dee cornz myself... but many of us have other world experiences too..  that we might bring to the table that help to shed light on some of the financial management decisions that any of us might make, including considering how bitcoin might fit within our own lives and/or how much our own circumstances might be relatable to others who read and participate in this thread..at least in terms of bitcoin accumulation, then maintenance and then liquidation and sometimes some combinations that might relate to how we believe the price/walls to be moving.
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