That's a fair point.
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Today the 200-week moving average is right around $27k, so if we double it every 4 years then we would get.
2028 = $54k
...
2056 = $6,912k
In that scenario 0.0244 BTC would be worth around $168,653 ($6,912k * 0.244), so that number would be in the ballpark of $187k but that would not account for the likelihood that $187k would not be worth even close to that amount.. .. Too complicated to resolve all of the accounting presumptions that would be needed to be made?
I added with you new year just
2026 = $216k.
I'm not an expert in all these things but my guess is that the target will exceed $200k in the next 4 years, I don't really know how it will happen, but if the past growth is 3-4x price growth then it will definitely exceed the target of $200k.
I may have done a little bit of a Freudian slip, since I was trying to start out with the 200-week moving average and starting from today, so each of the years would have been 1 year less.. since I accidentally gave 5 years to the first bump.
The 200-week moving average should largely be considered as a bottom indicator rather than a descriptions of various possible tops... and since it is averaging out trade prices and even volume for four years, it does not tend to move very fast, and right now, it is going up about $14 per day... but surely as it gets bigger, it is likely to continue to build and compound upon itself, that is if bitcoin keeps growing in a similar kind of direction and in a similar kind of way as it had grown in the beginning..
and sure there is also a bit of an attempt to bring stability to the amount of the BTC price move for each of the four years by suggesting that the BTC price would double every 4 years, even though so far in BTC's history, it has come close to doubling every year, if we measure from the beginning when it first developed a price, but I have my doubts about whether the first few years in bitcoin can be used as very accurate starting points, since the BTC price was so early in its adoption that it barely had any price and there was limited abilities for price discovery through only a few exchanges, so maybe we have to start out in 2012 or 2013, if we are trying to be somewhat fair regarding making assessments of bitcoin's expected (or would it be hoped for?) price trajectory.
I also understand the @JJG point about buying (or not buying i-bonds). There are/were other, much simpler ways to get interest last year, like money market funds, which are liquid, while i-bonds are not.
I think @philipma1957 is diversified (from what I gathered). Yes, maybe buying i-bonds when btc was at the lows of around $16K was ill-advised, but everyone only know it by now, not back then.
I am not so much against Ibonds as I might be making it seem - however, it seems a bit irritating to suggest that money might either be taken out of bitcoin or diverted into that kind of a product, and surely there are degrees in regards to any mistake.
If we have fresh cash coming in, then there seems to be fewer mistakes to divide such cash up into various pots.. such as having an extra $100 to $500 per week coming in or maybe the amount is higher or maybe the amount is lower, and so there are likely BIGGER and objectively confirmable difficulties in terms of dividing up the investment amount when the amounts are really low. It is easier to divide up $1,000 per week as compared with dividing up $10 per week..... and sometimes we are going to realize (probably at a much later date) that maybe we made some mistakes in regards to how we allocated that new cash that was coming in.
If somewhere in May or June there is a realization that either $5k per year or $10k per year can be spent on IBonds, and if there is a desire to max out the Ibonds, then there could be a bit of an urgency in terms of how to come up with that much money in order to get the money in before the end of the year....and yeah maybe it becomes even more urgent if there is a discovery/realization in September or October because then there are ONLY a couple/few months left in the year. So BIGGER mistakes could be made when reallocating in lump sums or even rushing into the matter and scrambling to figure out what assets might be more liquid than others in order to come up with the cash to be able to buy some of that crap that you then believe is such a "great deal."
Surely, each of us might weigh the level of the mistake to be BIGGER if we might see that money had been diverted from BTC and into some shitty products - especially given BTC's price correction level during most of the later half of 2022.
There are plenty of times that I have conceded that it is not as bad to buy shitty products or even shitcoins, as long as the money is not coming out of BTC funds, so if the money is coming from new money then it might not be AS BIG of a deal, even though in the end, many of us realize that even new money "could have had gone into bitcoin" but if some of us already have a lot of bitcoin, and we even proclaim to have "more than enough" bitcoin, then I can hardly frown upon people who diversify into other assets (even shitty assets) if they have already come to a reasonable assessment that they have "enough" or even "more than enough" bitcoin... and each person will vary in terms of whether s/he feels that s/he has to keep reallocating back within a range, such as keeping the bitcoin allocation between 10% and 20% of the value of all of the assets, or some other way of justifying why selling of BTC is taking place when it might not be a very good long term decision to be selling BTC at certain times and reallocating into other assets, even if those other assets appear to be "short-term" promising.
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