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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26960032 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Torque
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July 28, 2023, 12:23:48 AM
Last edit: July 28, 2023, 12:35:54 AM by Torque

They would "have" to do a rug-pull because if they don't and just start cutting rates because the inflation is getting low, then real estate would jump and, therefore, the forward looking inflation expectations would increase as well, defeating the whole carefully orchestrated "program".

Exactly. It has to look like a complete blindside accident.

But keep an eye on the equities market. It's slowly melting up. Clearly the Wall Street insiders already know what's up.

Also, the U.S. interest payment on debt is complete unsustainable long term. And they know this.
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July 28, 2023, 12:50:41 AM

They would "have" to do a rug-pull because if they don't and just start cutting rates because the inflation is getting low, then real estate would jump and, therefore, the forward looking inflation expectations would increase as well, defeating the whole carefully orchestrated "program".

Exactly. It has to look like a complete blindside accident.

But keep an eye on the equities market. It's slowly melting up. Clearly the Wall Street insiders already know what's up.

Also, the U.S. interest payment on debt is complete unsustainable long term. And they know this.

yeah 2001 or 2000 was last plus year.

So a crash and burn will happen if not 2023-2024 maybe when Trump gets reelected in 2024 they use him as the perfect fall guy.
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July 28, 2023, 01:03:26 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
shahzadafzal
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July 28, 2023, 01:28:06 AM

Why you need bitcoin?

Reason#421

You get 1000 CHF penalty on moving 100k CHF of YOUR MONEY unannounced.



https://twitter.com/sunnydecree/status/1684532450364379136?s=46&t=EYlgQnpcCaCtcz2k1MwkNg
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July 28, 2023, 01:35:09 AM
Last edit: July 28, 2023, 01:48:52 AM by Gachapin
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), hisslyness (1)

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this


Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

Yes very simple... have fun with the new "developer" fork...




...
So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin
...

That's not the price 5.2 trillion going into BTC would generate.

It's the same like thinking that if someone bought 570 Billion $ of BTC now, it would only double the current price to 58000$.
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July 28, 2023, 01:49:29 AM
Merited by Who is John Galt? (1)

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this


Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

Yes very simple... have fun with your new "developer" fork...




...
So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin
...

That's not the price 5.2 trillion going into BTC would generate.

It's the same like thinking that if someone bought 570 Billion $ of BTC now, it would only double the current price to 58000$.


No 5.2 trillion market cap for BTC is not same 5.2 trillion going into BTC . I should be more clear as I did mention shifting wealth so it would seem like that I meant people spend 5.2 trillion to buy all the btc. As John Galt said it would be more complex than  stocks trading for btc or  gold trading for btc.



But yeah if you tried to buy every coin in existence  the market cap could go to 15 trillion.






As for developers freeing the lost coins they likely will one day. Unfortunate that will take more than 30 years from now maybe 2080.

So I won't live to see it.

I am almost certain that if BTC does succeed those coins will be freed down the road.

But it is arguing a point in time so far away it does not affect me and likely very few of us would be alive to see it happen.
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July 28, 2023, 01:53:17 AM

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this


Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

Yes very simple... have fun with your new "developer" fork...




...
So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin
...

That's not the price 5.2 trillion going into BTC would generate.

It's the same like thinking that if someone bought 570 Billion $ of BTC now, it would only double the current price to 58000$.


No 5.2 trillion market cap for BTC is not same 5.2 trillion going into BTC . I should be more clear as I did mention shifting wealth so it would seem like that I meant people spend 5.2 trillion to buy all the btc. As John Galt said it would be more complex than  stocks trading for btc or  gold trading for btc.



But yeah if you tried to buy every coin in existence  the market cap could go to 15 trillion.






As for developers freeing the lost coins they likely will one day. Unfortunate that will take more than 30 years from now maybe 2080.

So I won't live to see it.

I am almost certain that if BTC does succeed those coins will be freed down the road.

But it is arguing a point in time so far away it does not affect me and likely very few of us would be alive to see it happen.

I don't see why any holder of BTC would want to have dormant or lost coins hitting the market and decrease their networth
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July 28, 2023, 01:54:18 AM

Why you need bitcoin?

Reason#421

You get 1000 CHF penalty on moving 100k CHF of YOUR MONEY unannounced.



https://twitter.com/sunnydecree/status/1684532450364379136?s=46&t=EYlgQnpcCaCtcz2k1MwkNg

unannounced?
...and if you move $100, unannounced, then the fee is 1 chf?
it would be laughable if it wasn't sad.

a bit of a solution: permanently 'announce' that you are withdrawing all funds in your account, then postpone as needed.
I used to do it in brokerage accounts in a vain attempt to prevent them from letting people (short traders) borrow my shares.
I typically put in a 3X value order, but eventually stopped doing this because someone posted that brokerages don't care and could lent your shares anyway.
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July 28, 2023, 02:03:26 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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July 28, 2023, 02:32:08 AM


My guess is Sept is a jump
Then Nov is a pivot.

Which would mean a fall-winter rally for btc and stocks.

Down the road maybe 2032 if btc is 600k with a market cap of 6 trillion it will not be tied to the other wealth sources.



According to this news that September the fed could potentially rise the interest rate again or just hold it still. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/25/business/fed-interest-rate-decision/index.html
and in the past history, usually September always become a "SAD"tember  Cry

the graph will look like this (Interest rate 2022-2023)


and very similar to this (Graph 2007)



if this happen maybe we are going to see the interest is slashed while bitcoin is halving  Cool Cool you guys know the mean is hahaha
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July 28, 2023, 02:57:41 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), Biodom (1)

So my look at the upper 1% is a bit skewed as I know guys in the 25-800 million dollar range.

Obviously they are in the lower part of the upper 1%.

I would think that anyone that has more than $10 million in wealth would be in the 1%.. but yeah, whether they are merely at entry-level 1%, I am not sure.  And, maybe it is not a good idea to count the value of your primary residence when measuring your wealth, but surely there still would be some value in the primary residence.. especially if it is mostly paid off.. and surely it can be used to generate cash.. whether by selling it or getting loans against it.

We know that for each $1 million in quasi-liquid wealth, you should be able to generate around 4% per year of passive income for that, and maybe part of the reason that no one recommends counting your primary residence as part of your wealth is because generally you are not getting any kind of passive income off of it  - even if it might be appreciating in value.. perhaps?

So someone with $10 million in quasi-liquid wealth should be able to generate $33k of income per month, and surely that should well be within the 1%.. not necessarily in the "lower" 1% as you assert.  Yeah, of course, there are filthy rich folks out there, and I am not even sure where filthy rich begins. I think that at one point (probably prior to March 2020), many of us were speculating that filthy rich might well start at $40 million and above, but these days, we might think that we may well have to double that number and maybe even suggest that filthy rich does not start until $100 million and above, even though surely the $40million to $99 million folks should not really be suffering in any kind of way, but maybe they cannot afford to have both a nice jet and a nice yacht?  I am not sure how much you need to have both.. not that merely having a nice yacht and a nice jet would be the ONLY criteria for filthy rich.. and each of those kinds of items including having a mansion or two take extra maintenance helpers.. so there could be several $million in just annual maintenance expenses for each of the luxury items... but still some of that is filthy rich. and I am still going to say that $10million of quasi-liquid capital that you can invest solidly puts you into the 1%... even though I am kind of guessing a bit and I could look it up, but I am not feeling that ambitious at the moment.. and typing/speculating/shooting things out of my ... thingie.. seems easier than googling the answers.

Blackrock's study recommends a 85% BTC allocation in a portfolio...

many WOers are at least 85% in.  Imagine John Doe followed... (if global investors allocated only 1% in Bitcoin, we would cross 1m easily)
https://bitcoinist.com/blackrock-study-optimal-bitcoin-allocation/
Yep and the older guys I know all have 2-5% BTC. But they have BTC.

The question is how much will they shift. To go up to 10%-15% is likely all they will do. They will not go to 85-15 as blackrock asks them to as they do not need to.

So they have a ton of wealth with not much need to shift to btc. But they are shifting a bit.

Should be fun to see this unfold.
Their 5% could easily become 30-33%% with bitcoin going up 10X and 10% would become about 50%.

Yep.  

Exactamundo!!!!

And then they are faced with choices about whether to reallocate or not.

Do you let your winners run or not?  and if you let them run, then how much? and when do you stop letting them run?  A lot of normies have profited stupendously from bitcoin, by not reallocating and keeping a vast majority of their wealth in bitcoin rather than putting wealth into losing investments.

JUST IN - 🇺🇸 US Congressman Brad Sherman on #Bitcoin: "I don't believe that Saratoshi Nagamoto was innovative." https://t.co/qTWnndaaem

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1684220413021155331?t=QBbWfL_o9A5mm5_fWGq71A&s=19
Mr. Sherman indicates " Saratoshi Nagamoto"
But who is Saratoshi Nagamoto?
So says the man who never invented anything nor propelled humankind forward in anyway whatsoever.
Tell me Exacly or give me 1 Positive Causality that Bljatcoin brought to the world or what is the positive of it ? So far it uses up as much Electricity as entire African continent , it failed its "Store of Value" test at Covid discovery and is terrible as a Transaction means and it made more people poor than sufficiently sustainable with money (Rich). I can go on and on but i do not find any positive aspect of its existence

You don't see any positives, and that is likely the primary explanation regarding why you are going to continue to have fun staying poor, just like you have been having fun staying poor up until now...   except for the begging for BTC part.  I cannot imagine that would have had been fun.. but yeah, each of us have our own interpretations of what might be "fun."

Oh well.  Not all of us can prosper from some of the easier choices in regards to being able top see and then to act upon the greatest wealth transfer in history taking place in front of our eyes.. so long as we might be able to open such eyes.
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July 28, 2023, 03:01:22 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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July 28, 2023, 03:03:32 AM

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this


Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

Yes very simple... have fun with your new "developer" fork...




...
So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin
...

That's not the price 5.2 trillion going into BTC would generate.

It's the same like thinking that if someone bought 570 Billion $ of BTC now, it would only double the current price to 58000$.


No 5.2 trillion market cap for BTC is not same 5.2 trillion going into BTC . I should be more clear as I did mention shifting wealth so it would seem like that I meant people spend 5.2 trillion to buy all the btc. As John Galt said it would be more complex than  stocks trading for btc or  gold trading for btc.



But yeah if you tried to buy every coin in existence  the market cap could go to 15 trillion.






As for developers freeing the lost coins they likely will one day. Unfortunate that will take more than 30 years from now maybe 2080.

So I won't live to see it.

I am almost certain that if BTC does succeed those coins will be freed down the road.

But it is arguing a point in time so far away it does not affect me and likely very few of us would be alive to see it happen.

I don't see why any holder of BTC would want to have dormant or lost coins hitting the market and decrease their networth

I can give you a long list of reasons why it will happen. But when you talk about the year 2080 no one really knows what is relevant.

Just remember holders of coins do not vote since there is no staking. Well maybe one can say LN is kind of like staking.
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July 28, 2023, 03:11:41 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

So my look at the upper 1% is a bit skewed as I know guys in the 25-800 million dollar range.

Obviously they are in the lower part of the upper 1%.

I would think that anyone that has more than $10 million in wealth would be in the 1%.. but yeah, whether they are merely at entry-level 1%, I am not sure.  And, maybe it is not a good idea to count the value of your primary residence when measuring your wealth, but surely there still would be some value in the primary residence.. especially if it is mostly paid off.. and surely it can be used to generate cash.. whether by selling it or getting loans against it.

We know that for each $1 million in quasi-liquid wealth, you should be able to generate around 4% per year of passive income for that, and maybe part of the reason that no one recommends counting your primary residence as part of your wealth is because generally you are not getting any kind of passive income off of it  - even if it might be appreciating in value.. perhaps?

So someone with $10 million in quasi-liquid wealth should be able to generate $33k of income per month, and surely that should well be within the 1%.. not necessarily in the "lower" 1% as you assert.  Yeah, of course, there are filthy rich folks out there, and I am not even sure where filthy rich begins. I think that at one point (probably prior to March 2020), many of us were speculating that filthy rich might well start at $40 million and above, but these days, we might think that we may well have to double that number and maybe even suggest that filthy rich does not start until $100 million and above, even though surely the $40million to $99 million folks should not really be suffering in any kind of way, but maybe they cannot afford to have both a nice jet and a nice yacht?  I am not sure how much you need to have both.. not that merely having a nice yacht and a nice jet would be the ONLY criteria for filthy rich.. and each of those kinds of items including having a mansion or two take extra maintenance helpers.. so there could be several $million in just annual maintenance expenses for each of the luxury items... but still some of that is filthy rich. and I am still going to say that $10million of quasi-liquid capital that you can invest solidly puts you into the 1%... even though I am kind of guessing a bit and I could look it up, but I am not feeling that ambitious at the moment.. and typing/speculating/shooting things out of my ... thingie.. seems easier than googling the answers.


Very much correct...In 2019 1% (of fiat holders in US) was $11 mil at the low....now, probably $20 mil, but I agree that very rich (or call it filthy rich if you want) is $30-40 mil and above. Family office used to start at around $30-40 mil, now more like $100 mil (as long it is a single family and not a multi-family office).
Also true that you can relatively easily generate 360-400K/year from $10 mil without spending the principal at all.
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July 28, 2023, 03:12:29 AM

Very interesting comments by Grayscale submitted to SEC today…
Said surveillance sharing agreement w/ Coinbase wouldn’t be sufficient to get spot bitcoin ETFs approved.
Source
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July 28, 2023, 03:15:40 AM

Very interesting comments by Grayscale submitted to SEC today…
Said surveillance sharing agreement w/ Coinbase wouldn’t be sufficient to get spot bitcoin ETFs approved.
Source

Aha! A battle of "who would be the first".
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July 28, 2023, 03:25:39 AM



Source.
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July 28, 2023, 03:26:25 AM

Worldcoin  Huh
What they even do? Beside take your Face id and Iris id🤔
First thing i thought when saw this is $onecoin

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July 28, 2023, 03:48:05 AM

A general calculation of assets and BTC

 Total global assets ~ $900T

 Roughly ~ 15M available BTC

 If Bitcoin’s market cap acquires 1% of global assets, we have a $9 Trillion asset class.

 $9T / 15M = $600,000 BTC

 What are your thoughts on this


Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

Yes very simple... have fun with your new "developer" fork...




...
So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin
...

That's not the price 5.2 trillion going into BTC would generate.

It's the same like thinking that if someone bought 570 Billion $ of BTC now, it would only double the current price to 58000$.


No 5.2 trillion market cap for BTC is not same 5.2 trillion going into BTC . I should be more clear as I did mention shifting wealth so it would seem like that I meant people spend 5.2 trillion to buy all the btc. As John Galt said it would be more complex than  stocks trading for btc or  gold trading for btc.



But yeah if you tried to buy every coin in existence  the market cap could go to 15 trillion.






As for developers freeing the lost coins they likely will one day. Unfortunate that will take more than 30 years from now maybe 2080.

So I won't live to see it.

I am almost certain that if BTC does succeed those coins will be freed down the road.

But it is arguing a point in time so far away it does not affect me and likely very few of us would be alive to see it happen.

I don't see why any holder of BTC would want to have dormant or lost coins hitting the market and decrease their networth

I can give you a long list of reasons why it will happen. But when you talk about the year 2080 no one really knows what is relevant.

Just remember holders of coins do not vote since there is no staking. Well maybe one can say LN is kind of like staking.

hodlers always have the last word.  they choose which fork has value and gets used.
now, why should hodlers value a fork where devs are distributing coins that are not theirs, thereby diluting the available supply, and even worse, destroying Bitcoin's NYKNYC-feature?
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July 28, 2023, 04:01:54 AM

Has Bitstamp changed the look of its Tradeview page? I am not able to make the chart fill the page horizontally anymore. The orderbook and the order entry form take valuable horizontal space beside the chart. Previously, they could be put below it. I'm not logging on - just using the public tradeview page.

Anyone know if it can be fixed?

I hear what you are describing... and I could not see anything to remove those side windows.. but I only spent about 10-15 minutes on it, and sometimes those platforms change their interface.. and I had not even been using the features, so sometimes I won't even realize what had changed or how.

I was going to make some kind of a funny suggestion for you to just buy a larger monitor and everything is fixed, and surely I have some really great monitors - but when I travel, I cannot be carrying around monitors, so sometimes getting reliant upon a great set up can cause frustrations when having to shrink back down to a smaller amount of desktop (screen) space.  Even some of the solutions that I find can cause a lot of frustration, including carrying two laptops rather than one.. and it is not exactly the most practical solution... when having to lug around a bunch of things.. and do I carry the nice laptops or maybe the less expensive ones in case "something happens?"

Long answer short.  Don't ask me.   Tongue Tongue

The problem with normies is that they can't maths.

They completely laugh and scoff at bitcoin as a valid investment, all the while losing money in the equities market vs. inflation.

You could easily make the case that bitcoin roughly doubles in value every 4 years as measured from it's lowest bear market point to lowest bear market point. (Yes it's probably more than that, I know, but I'm just being conservative here).

Still, extrapolated, that's ~ +25% gain year over year. Show me ANY other investment that *consistently* does that, that Average Joe can invest in long term.

I'll wait, normies...

and then they wonder why they are poor....
There’s definitely a reason they HFSP.

I think most of us here have a different way of thinking to the average guy, different personality traits. Most people stick with safe, low interest savings accounts, they are very risk averse.

Those of us who were early and have done well in bitcoin are a different breed, risk takers, entrepreneurial minds. We want more for our lives than the average guy and we seek out ways to facilitate that. It just so happens that bitcoin has given us opportunities in life that most people don’t get.
Cheers.

I don't know LFC.

I don't think that we are that different.

Perhaps one of the things that might have caused us to seem different is that we took action.. so there might be some ways that we decided to do some analysis work and/or spend some time to look into bitcoin, and if we might have been whimpy or hesitant, then maybe we made smaller investments into BTC.. so still even whimpy had been able to profit into bitcoin as long as they continued to buy and/or merely to hold their BTC rather than selling it.

So maybe I am not really arguing with you.. even though I don't really think that we are very different.. except merely that some of our actions might have had a kind of cascading effect, and some people need more motivation or they need to be in the right kind of a place before they are going to do anything..including just taking a small amount, such as $10 per week, and then maybe after investing $10 per week for 6 months, there begins to come reasons to "look into the matter more" and thereafter incentive for further action.. perhaps? perhaps?

Not posted in a while just trucking away with dca and stacking. Was out in the world enjoying life and started to notice Btc in general life, from billboards, graffiti, bitcoin atms etc. I’m not sure if it was always there or not but what do we think about this type of engagement with Joe Public. I wonder has anyone found their way here from something like seeing a btc atm in their local area.

I’m having some serious internal debates on whether to over allocate into Btc this year, I had set some targets around totals with what I felt was balanced and am approaching these way sooner than I thought was possible. With WO’s who have over allocated before any learnings to help me with my own decisions?

Another one been wrestling with is continue to allocate same during a bull and new ath, or under allocate for that time. I see comments about oh know if you bought at the top it’s bad but wouldn’t all dca’rs have bought at the top?

Well?  It depends on what you mean by overallocation.  So if you have already invested in a variety of assets, and then you are going to bring your BTC allocation to somewhere in the 1% to 25%, then maybe overallocation would be going more than 25%, or if you had set your goal to be 10%, and then over allocation would be going higher than your original goal.

Another thing is whether you feel that you really have your various expenses more than covered in case bitcoin prices go sour for 2-6 years, and then are you going to be needing to dip into your BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing, or would you be able to ride it out?

Of course, there are some people who don't have any other investments besides BTC and cash, so that might be dangerous to overallocate under those kinds of circumstances.. so maybe questioning whether you have other investments.. and I am not even sure if I recommend getting into other investments, unless  you already have them and some employers do not even have matching funds for their 401ks.. which that might cause incentives NOT to invest into 401ks.

I get the sense that you might not have had given enough information.. because when I overallocated into bitcoin from 10% to 13.5%, I had not really realized that I had gotten to 10%, and I thought that 10% would be a good target, but the BTC price stayed down for another year, and I was not exactly killing myself or causing too much extra stress on my finances or psychology by continuing to invest into BTC - but still everyone is different in terms of how solid is their cashflow. .and whether they have their emergency fund (their finances) in decent order in order to continue to buy BTC even though maybe your BTC portfolio might not be exactly profitable at the then current time, and your friends might already be speculating that you have too much into bitcoin (to the extent that any of them know much about your financial circumstances). 

And if you end up getting "overallocated" in accordance with your definition, what is that going to achieve?  it potentially gets you to fuck you status more rapidly?  or does it just give you more options if the BTC price ends up going up, then you feel as if it might be easier for you to shave off some profits from the BTC without feeling guilty about selling some of it?

Punchline.  I need more info, and maybe you don't want to share.. which is fine also, but you are the one who asked the question.. and sure you might be able to provide more info without giving up too much OPsec... perhaps? perhaps?
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