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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26380927 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Newar
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March 02, 2015, 02:27:42 PM

That's not true look atthese odds and payout is a huge spread


You can check yourself. Do the math. For example: https://bitbet.us/bet/1114/btc-to-rise-vs-usd-in-february/

everyone seems to be missing the small detail of "WEIGHT"

should someone who bet last summer that bitcoin would drop to 100 when it was $600+ have the same odds as someone who waited to add to the bet today when we are in the 200s?


which who would have thought.. has a whole paragraph dedicated to it in the faq  Roll Eyes

I know. But with resolved bets you can do the math and see what was paid in and out. He can check his claim of 40% himself that way Smiley
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The network tries to produce one block per 10 minutes. It does this by automatically adjusting how difficult it is to produce blocks.
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RoooooR
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GigTricks.io | A CRYPTO ECOSYSTEM FOR ON-DEMAND EC


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March 02, 2015, 02:38:02 PM

Wait for the little crash before buying
Don't wait, you'll be late.

I waited and still I'm not late. Wink
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March 02, 2015, 02:38:30 PM

"Wordpress received only slightly over 100 BTC payments in 2014

Commenting on the recent removal of the Bitcoin payment option from the Wordpress subscription screen, founder Matt Mullenweg revealed the site received only two payments a week in Bitcoin during 2014, but plans to reinstate the payment option for “philosophical” reasons.

"The volume has been dropping since launch, in 2014 it was only used about twice a week, which is vanishingly small compared to other methods of payment we offer. […] We supported Bitcoin for philosophical reasons, not commercial ones."

       Cheesy
    CheesyCheesyCheesy
 CheesyCheesyCheesyCheesyCheesy
aztecminer
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March 02, 2015, 02:40:34 PM

geez buying the dips is a tough strategy, blink and they are gone!



i have done well buying dips, i caught the lows twice on last three coin buys:


2x 180 (near the bottom before coinbase pump)
1x 250 (was chasing coinbase pump)
2x 218 (near bottom after coinbase pump)


as can see chasing the price doesn't work as well as waiting for the dips.

all those coins got accidentally tied up someplace so i will have to wait that out ...

this month i will try to buy MOAR coins to play with ......
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March 02, 2015, 02:43:58 PM

http://www.complaintsboard.com/complaints/bitbetus-bitcoin-theft-c706255.html
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March 02, 2015, 02:47:11 PM


Huh, another bitcoin scam business. Who would've thought...
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March 02, 2015, 02:48:26 PM

http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/bitbetus/internet/bitbetus-Is-something-you-should-really-AVOID-1155798
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March 02, 2015, 02:48:32 PM


"Everything about Bitbet.us has so far been a drag. Creating an account takes forever and they take their sweet time approving your ID information. "

i stopped reading there.

there are no accounts and there is no id information.

still havnt read the faq i can tell.
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March 02, 2015, 02:56:14 PM

Wait for the little crash before buying
Don't wait, you'll be late.

I waited and still I'm not late. Wink

like your name. i once invented a brand name which looks similar to yours....    Wink
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March 02, 2015, 02:59:24 PM

Coin
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March 02, 2015, 03:04:17 PM

Check ignition and may God's love be with you...

 http://www.woefultourist.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/IMGP0754.jpg
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March 02, 2015, 03:34:17 PM

bitcoin it is worth its weight in gold.
You're being facetious of course

Well, yes and no.  An immaterial currency can be issued at will; it is the ultimate "fiat money".

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)

Quote
We can in principle associate some minimum weight to abstract units that are the result of computation, right?

Yes, with current technology there is in theory a minimum amount of useful energy that needs to be disspated (turned into waste heat) in order to perorm any logical operation.  That energy can be expressed as mass by Einstein's equation m  = E/c^2.   For example, a 10 watt lamp in one second burns 10 joules, which is equivalent to (10 kg m^2/s^2)/(300'000'000 m/s)^2 = 0.00000000000000011 kg, or 0.1 picogram of matter, if I didn't miss some zeros.  (Quantum computing may get around this limit somehow, but it is not known whether it will ever be usable for problems like this.)

The theoretical minimum energy cost of computations is quite small, much less than the cost that can be achieved with current technology.  But even if we use the actual cost, the mass equivalent of the cost of creating 1 bitcoin will be fairly small. Anyone knows how many joules are tipically consumed today to create 1 valid block (25 BTC)?  

However, the cost of creating something in the first place is only an upper bound to its "intrinsic value".  There are examples of huge civil engineering works that cost billions to build, were never used, and cost millions to demolish -- that is, had negative value.  (The dams built by Saddam Hussein to drain the marshes in Southern Iraq may be one example.  The Iridium communications infrastructure may be another.)  The computing the nonces of orphaned blocks costs as much as computing  those of surviving blocks, but those nonces are worthless (except perhaps to cryptographers, who may have a use for them).

Another upper bound for the "intrinsic value" of something could be the cost of duplicating it.  The cost of duplicating a bar of gold is the same as creating the first one.  For a banknote, printing an extra copy is much cheaper than printing the first one because all the plates and equipment are reused.  For information, the cost of duplication (theoretical and in practice) is extremely small.  

It can be argued that duplicating information in the bitcoin system does not produce extra bitcoins.  But that is not a physical constraint, it is a property of the whole bitcoin system -- not just the protocols and the algorithms, but also of the internet, and, mainly, how people use and react to those things.  So, the allegedly valuable properties of the bitcoin system -- single spending, authentication, limited supply, irreversibility, global reach, etc. -- do not define the "intrinsic value" of a bitcoin; they contribute only to its market value.

Moreover, no one really knows how hard it is to compute a valid block.  The trial-and-error method used by miners is just the most efficient method that we know; but there is no proof or other evidence that there is no better way.  There may well exist an agorithm that finds the right nonce for a block header in a few microseconds.  Or, worse, finds a block that has the same hash of another block but a different contents, including a specific transaction that is not in the first block.  Or finds the private key for any given address.  So, the theoretical "mass cost" of computing a valid block may be orders of magnitude lower than the trial-and-error cost.
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March 02, 2015, 03:52:19 PM

Wait for the little crash before buying
Don't wait, you'll be late.

I waited and still I'm not late. Wink

like your name. i once invented a brand name which looks similar to yours....    Wink

Woop!
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March 02, 2015, 03:57:35 PM

Moreover, no one really knows how hard it is to compute a valid block.  The trial-and-error method used by miners is just the most efficient method that we know; but there is no proof or other evidence that there is no better way.

Would you consider the fact that nobody has ever found a collision of sha256 function an evidence? There's no mathematical proof, but there's more then enough evidence that any other method is not even on the horizon. It's not only a Bitcoin issue, if any of modern hash algorithms would be compromised the whole cryptography would be hammered.
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March 02, 2015, 03:59:24 PM

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March 02, 2015, 04:01:18 PM

...
Anyone knows how many joules are tipically consumed today to create 1 valid block (25 BTC)?  
...

Assuming current market price is very close to electrical energy spent on mining, and price for that is a low 10 cents / kwh, I'm getting a guesstimate of ~227 GJ.
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March 02, 2015, 04:06:50 PM

for carps sake somebody just flash a wall at finex and get this over with.
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March 02, 2015, 04:07:33 PM

263$ and increasing, to the moon
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March 02, 2015, 04:09:33 PM

263$ and increasing, to the moon

first test, 267.

Edit: screw the CNY exchanges, finex lead us higher
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March 02, 2015, 04:20:27 PM


(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right? Ether that, or something completely idiotic.
Imma go ahead and call bullshit. There's no way you can pre-mine a blockchain, you're racing against the entire network to solve the hash. The hash of the previous block is included into the hashing process of the next. You'd have to start out solving the latest block on the chain, and the consecutively solve... how many blocks do propose, exactly? Not only that, but pre-mine ahead of the network. The most consecutive blocks mined are six, by the largest pool in the entire network. This isnt a "any kid can do it at home with his laptop" scenario.
Then, just copy over the wallet to some other computer and spend the coins twice... What?
You obviously have not idea what you're talking about.

I'll bet you all my coins (0.107) that you (you consider yourself superior to "any kid with a laptop", right) definitely CANNOT duplicate any bitcoin through the method you described.
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