The price will rise around the halving time because miners will get less coins mined per day, and in order to still be profitable and not only do +- $0/day, they will need to manipulate the market to their favour.
This theory about manipulation of price upwards by miners is frequently overblown and exaggerated.
Even though miners have an incentive for prices to go up, there is no evidence that they are actually engaged in any kind of large scale price manipulation... and likely their involvement in upwards price manipulation is marginal at best.
By the way, frequently when folks emphasize upward price being caused by miner manipulation they are attempting to suggest that Bitcoin's price is not as organic as it is... organic meaning widespread amongst a variety of persons.. and the more organic bitcoin price becomes with the passage of time and increased use, etc etc... the less that it matters concerning any one segment, including miner behavior... the halving, in fact makes it a bit less important regarding what miners do because they have control over a lower and lower percentage of the coins (new coins in this case).
This is good for us who even hold a few bitcoins or more, but less good for people who want to invest in bitcoin and jump on the train in a late stage. But who cares, most of us here want to make money, and some do, and some lose, thats the nature of the game.
I agree with you that upward price movement, no matter how it occurs is good for people who already own coins and those who have already stockpiled some coins in anticipation of upwards price movement. However, I doubt that we need to feel sorry for subsequent users... There is always going to be different cost basis for folks depending on when they get into any kind of appreciating asset, and the extent to which it can appreciate will change, of course, but that mere fact does not mean that they are screwed by such appreciation.. They just need to make choices about appreciating assets at the time that they make them, and there will likely be other appreciating assets in the future.. We just happen to be involved with this one (bitcoin) and we happen to be lucky enough to know about it (those of us who have been studying it).
I have attempted to inform a lot of my friends and relatives and even other acquaintances about our lil friend (bitcoin), and sometimes, the seed is planted and they research into it (and maybe even invest), and other times, they are just not ready for it and too nervous about it... for whatever reason. I don't feel sorry for them.. or feel guilty about my own early investment.
I can't imagine all those who bought for $800-1000/btc...they must feel like losers, but cheer up, we will get back to new heights soon. And if you cant make profit, I am sure your losses will be much smaller.
I don't think that you need to worry about those who bought in the $800 to $1000 price arenas. It's very likely they are are going to be fine, as long as they held and maybe took other investment precautions. But, yeah, it is a problem regarding some of those who bought at those levels and sold in the $200s or some other price that was lower than their initial investment. Those kinds of things happen in volatile assets, and certainly, bitcoin's future appreciation is far from certain.
By the way, I bought my first coins at $1,200, and I continued to buy all the way down below $200 and to bring my average down. I accumulated several coins in the lower $200s, and took reasonable precautions to sell on the way up above $250 and currently, then to buy back on dips. Sure it has taken some nursing along the way, yet currently, my BTC portfolio is in really decent shape because I have BTC accumulated and fiat stacked within the portfolio. Thus there are several ways to view and calculate cost per BTC to attempt to figure if your holdings are profitable. Sure, yeah, maybe to be a purist, I should wait for $1,200 to cash out the coins that I bought at $1,200, but really that is not absolutely necessary in order to still have an overall financially profitable holdings and selling position based on the overall average cost of the investment.
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