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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368180 times)
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notme
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May 16, 2013, 10:30:56 PM
 #8821

It's pure Gox-comedy that this was ever possible in the first place  Cheesy ...
 "Until now you could just pretend you had money or coins and place orders ..."

Bitstamp (rightly) won't let you do this. I'd be surprised if there are many exchanges on which this was ever possible. OK ... you can list something on Ebay that you don't have, but that's a bit different ...

The unfunded orders wouldn't show up in the public order book.  Just on your account with an insufficient funds error.  It was nice because if you only had one currency you could place a bid and an ask.  When the funded order filled your other order would activate.  Easy enough to script and not worth the performance hit though, so I support the move.
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May 16, 2013, 10:31:38 PM
 #8822

Correct me, if I'm wrong, because I'm not really sure about the money supply definitions, but here are some numbers about that 300k prediction.

The current M1 money supply of USD, which, as far as I understood, is all the money which is not money out of thin air, is around 2.500 billion USD. We have around 11 million BTC. Our goal 300.000 USD/BTC would result in a market capitalization of 3.300 billion USD.

... ... Cheesy

Don't forget that there's a lot more money on this planet than just US dollars alone
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May 16, 2013, 10:33:47 PM
 #8823

Correct me, if I'm wrong, because I'm not really sure about the money supply definitions, but here are some numbers about that 300k prediction.

The current M1 money supply of USD, which, as far as I understood, is all the money which is not money out of thin air, is around 2.500 billion USD. We have around 11 million BTC. Our goal 300.000 USD/BTC would result in a market capitalization of 3.300 billion USD.

... ... Cheesy

But... but.... bitcoin are being bought with money that was created out of thin air, not with M1 money supply
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May 16, 2013, 10:36:18 PM
 #8824

Correct me, if I'm wrong, because I'm not really sure about the money supply definitions, but here are some numbers about that 300k prediction.

The current M1 money supply of USD, which, as far as I understood, is all the money which is not money out of thin air, is around 2.500 billion USD. We have around 11 million BTC. Our goal 300.000 USD/BTC would result in a market capitalization of 3.300 billion USD.

... ... Cheesy




Who is just talking about America?  Wink

Interesting thing I just heard. The actual inflation rate is more like 9.5% (taken from this economist - http://www.theaureport.com/pub/htdocs/expert.html?id=2000
So, just like the unemployment rate (which if we used 1980 stats would be closer to 23.5%) the inflation rate is really distorted.
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May 16, 2013, 10:38:45 PM
 #8825

Correct me, if I'm wrong, because I'm not really sure about the money supply definitions, but here are some numbers about that 300k prediction.

The current M1 money supply of USD, which, as far as I understood, is all the money which is not money out of thin air, is around 2.500 billion USD. We have around 11 million BTC. Our goal 300.000 USD/BTC would result in a market capitalization of 3.300 billion USD.

... ... Cheesy




Who is just talking about America?  Wink

Interesting thing I just heard. The actual inflation rate is more like 9.5% (taken from this economist - http://www.theaureport.com/pub/htdocs/expert.html?id=2000
So, just like the unemployment rate (which if we used 1980 stats would be closer to 23.5%) the inflation rate is really distorted.


You don't need an economist, just look at food prices.  It varies a bit from item to item, but everything is 5-20% more expensive than a year ago. And yes, food prices have been excluded from official inflation calculations.
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May 16, 2013, 10:40:56 PM
 #8826

Both true. You also can't take 11M BTC as basis for this calculation, because I think the amount of traded BTC is far less. Eitherway, my point is: 300k isn't reachable without a really significant change in the global currency system and not something which is easily reachable, because some VCs invest huge amounts.
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May 16, 2013, 10:42:15 PM
 #8827

It's pure Gox-comedy that this was ever possible in the first place  Cheesy ...
 "Until now you could just pretend you had money or coins and place orders ..."

Bitstamp (rightly) won't let you do this. I'd be surprised if there are many exchanges on which this was ever possible. OK ... you can list something on Ebay that you don't have, but that's a bit different ...

The unfunded orders wouldn't show up in the public order book.  Just on your account with an insufficient funds error.  It was nice because if you only had one currency you could place a bid and an ask.  When the funded order filled your other order would activate.  Easy enough to script and not worth the performance hit though, so I support the move.

Thanks for the clarification
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May 16, 2013, 10:42:22 PM
 #8828

I know this is all over the place, but try to digest this regarding the BTC price: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/05/16/peter-thiel-gets-the-bitcoin-bug/#more-5747

Quote
BitPay claimed 1,900 new merchants signed up in April and it continues to sign up over 100 new customers every day. It is currently processing around $5m of Bitcoin transactions per month.

The scary part to consider is that first big company that takes on BTC. And then, after that, many other larger company will probably feel forced to go along, especially if there is a flow of new funds to supporters of these companies.
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May 16, 2013, 10:46:34 PM
 #8829

Both true. You also can't take 11M BTC as basis for this calculation, because I think the amount of traded BTC is far less. Eitherway, my point is: 300k isn't reachable without a really significant change in the global currency system and not something which is easily reachable, because some VCs invest huge amounts.

bitcoin hit over 1 million a coin last year.
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May 16, 2013, 10:49:04 PM
 #8830

price difference between Gox and other exchanges is still higher than usual.

No doubt there are excellent news today and further rises are to be expected due to the conference in the next 3 days.
But also I think the Gox price rise is driven by people clearing their fiat on Gox by buying BTCs and withdrawing them the f# out.

Thoughts?
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May 16, 2013, 10:51:12 PM
 #8831

price difference between Gox and other exchanges is still higher than usual.

No doubt there are excellent news today and further rises are to be expected due to the conference in the next 3 days.
But also I think the Gox price rise is driven by people clearing their fiat on Gox by buying BTCs and withdrawing them the f# out.

Thoughts?

That also means they are dumping on other exchanges to get their fiat back. So it's probably a little of both 
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May 16, 2013, 11:02:29 PM
 #8832

adamstgBit
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May 16, 2013, 11:05:52 PM
 #8833



you see that!

buy now or forever hold worthless mtgox fiat coupons
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May 16, 2013, 11:09:02 PM
 #8834

It's pure Gox-comedy that this was ever possible in the first place  Cheesy ...
 "Until now you could just pretend you had money or coins and place orders ..."

Bitstamp (rightly) won't let you do this. I'd be surprised if there are many exchanges on which this was ever possible. OK ... you can list something on Ebay that you don't have, but that's a bit different ...

Amazingly my E-Trade account doesn't offer that feature either. ;-)
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May 16, 2013, 11:11:53 PM
 #8835

Well, fair is fair.  CNN.com did not throw Bitcoin under the bus.  Seems even aside from the attention grabbing headline, the piece is rather positive. 

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/16/technology/bitcoin-mt-gox/index.html?iid=HP_LN
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May 16, 2013, 11:15:10 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2013, 11:25:43 PM by phoenix1
 #8836

price difference between Gox and other exchanges is still higher than usual.

No doubt there are excellent news today and further rises are to be expected due to the conference in the next 3 days.
But also I think the Gox price rise is driven by people clearing their fiat on Gox by buying BTCs and withdrawing them the f# out.

Thoughts?

Agree with the reasons for price differential. Remains to be seen how quickly the other exchanges can expand to cope with the increased volumes if business is truly moving away from Gox
Short term, IMO up more likely than down on Gox for the reasons you state. The 'real' price is probably the mid point between Gox and the rest and perhaps this is the best guage of sentiment.
As of now stable ... the differential is not so large as to imply any sort of panic.

EDIT : Some risk that this is artificially inflating the price in the short term
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May 16, 2013, 11:18:28 PM
 #8837

you see that!

buy now or forever hold worthless mtgox fiat coupons

All I can think of is how FullTilt, as they were having their accounts seized, kept on stating "don't worry your money is safe". No comments from mtgox on how much was seized is worrisome to say the least. I hope that they have the funds and or the backing to make all cash deposits whole. Do we know if mtgox has the funds in segregated accounts in a jurisdiction of which the US government cant touch?
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May 16, 2013, 11:20:23 PM
 #8838

$117.99
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May 16, 2013, 11:24:15 PM
 #8839

1.36M sitting on 120, i believe it was over 2M some hours ago.
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May 16, 2013, 11:29:17 PM
 #8840

Bitcoin: 1 DHS: 0

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