Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

Every bankster has predicted the end of bitcoin as well. And they "know" about money

I'm not predicting "the end of bitcoin". I'm simply predicting the usual retrace in proportion to the massive gain of the last major spike. It's gone from $400 to $4000 in 12 months. The retest of the last high is yet to come. That would be around $800-$1200.

[empowering]

I cannot see the market capitulating to that extent ($130-$500) from $7000 barring a near catastrophic event of some type which acts as a catalyst- a event severe enough that causes holders to drop their bags en masse

Indeed. Expect just such an event.

Funny thing chart watching. The right "event" always seems to turn up at the right time to justify the technicals.

The reason for that is that people cherrypick retrospectively which "event" was a significant market driver. For example in 2013/14 if the price had carried on up through 1200 and continued throughought 2014 towards 4-5k, then the January 2014 China "banning" and the Gox fiasco would have been seen as minor corrections. But since the market traced back 90% of its gains eventually, those came to be seen as 'catastrophic'.

There are events like that going on all the time. We just had a contentious hardfork - you don't think that qualifies as 'catastrophic' ? The market will tank at some point and then a patsy will be found to justify it.

Lot of ifs

IMO the market is more liquid now than in the past- and I expect it to become more so... it is not as easy for the market to be pushed around at these levels..as it was 3-4 years ago, it has matured in many ways including somewhat the participants.  

I do not discount a black swan event though - I guess it would not be too surprising- It appeals to the pessimist in me... but it would have to be really huge event- to justify a move which would take the market cap down from $116 billion (BTC@$7000) to around $3.3 billion (BTC @$200) which would be a drop of $112ish billion- that would have to be a dump of millions and millions of coins and a total lack of demand...  and then after that a $443 billion rally up to to $447 billion (BTC@ $27,000)

The world, or at the very least the crypto world would have to be on fire.

Most external events of such a catastrophic nature would lead to BTC price increase - war, financial collapse, massive terror attack etc though financial collapse could potentially cause the crash and super recovery

Internal ones- catastrophic bug, vulnerability , regulation - I suppose a bug could cause crash and then the fix once in place the recovery (but $27k after a bug that drained price to $130 hmmmm)


Not saying we wont have volatility -but these numbers would be next level nutty IMO


(ps no I do not think the HF was catastrophic in the slightest- farcical but not catastrophic)

[LewisPirenne]

I must confess something...

When I discovered Bitcoin about 2 years ago it blew my mind. I'm a scientist/engineer and my job is to design things, so I immediately understood the idea and its implications. Much like Andreas Antonopoulos's experience, I found myself skipping meals and forgetting to sleep while reading all a could find about it. I thought that this invention had the power and potential to change the world for the better. To help people. And I still believe that.

But something spoiled the dream for me. Greed. I was lucky enough to buy a good amount of BTC when they were worth 200 € each. I didn't plan it, it was pure luck. And then I found myself thinking about how much money I could earn, when I should sell my BTC and become rich (in a fiat setting), etc. I didn't care about Bitcoin "the world-changing invention" anymore, all I ended up caring was how much money I could make out of it.

Things are looking up, and my goal may be realised sooner that I thought, but is this a healthy goal? Are we all supporting or destroying Bitcoin by thinking like this? I see this greed in many people's posts here in the forum. It saddens me. Many here talk pompously and boasting how they're going to sell their stash when its fiat-based value reaches a set target. Is this all you see in Bitcoin? A money-making machine? Are we all failing to see the bigger picture?

Sorry for using WO to post this... I just wanted to get it off my chest.

When most people get involved in Bitcoin and they have a huge amount of energy and enthusiasm for it. Problem is, there is little you can direct that energy towards.
For most, it ends up as trading, trolling, scamming, mining or a similar pursuit that doesn't really promote or contribute much to Bitcoin, we just feed off other people's efforts. I really wish we could harness the energy into something that was more constructive.

Not everyone is in this for the money though.  Just like a hobby, if it helps you make money along the way, then great, but if not, so be it.

For me, if the experiment fails and bitcoin goes to zero, then so be it.  But if it succeeds, then you won't even have to think in fiat term.  
Just like now, I think purely in crypto terms, i.e. crossrate like ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, and how much investment people made in that ICO in ETH terms.  You stop thinking about how much money you made in fiat terms, because that can be purely due to fiat failing big time, rather than crypto making gains.  

[fluidjax]

Bitcoin defies all the current "logic" of stock markets.

I've saw dozens of analysis and most of them failed.

That's because stocks are based purely on trading, whereas bitcoin is based on a creed - the creed of hodling.

Reminds of that scam, where you pick a horse race each week and you send an email predicting different winners to 10000's of people.
A week later, you create a new email list containing just the people you randomly sent the winner too.
You repeat the process until after several weeks you are left with just a few people, but for those people, you have correctly predicted the winning horse for several weeks in a row.

Your horse picking skills are probably well respected by these people, and you can use this as the basis for any number of confidence tricks.

It's the same with lots of these people picking the future direction of stocks & Bitcoin, given enough people picking outcomes, you are sure to get a few who have correctly picked the price movement several times, no doubt they have a plausible reason, but underneath, it's just chance.

[yermom]

Every bankster has predicted the end of bitcoin as well. And they "know" about money

I'm not predicting "the end of bitcoin". I'm simply predicting the usual retrace in proportion to the massive gain of the last major spike. It's gone from $400 to $4000 in 12 months. The retest of the last high is yet to come. That would be around $800-$1200.

https://i.imgur.com/7t6TOGu.png

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them 

[toknormal]

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

[RealMachasm]

I have been out of the loop for a week or two and I see peeps feeling rather pessimistic about BTCs future short term value.
Any fundamental reasons for this outlook or is it all just built on TA?
I know that China has recently (couple of weeks back) banned bitcoin (Again), anything else I missed?

[rjclarke2000]

Toknormal have you sold all your coins and going to buy back at $200? Or are you going to wait until after 5k before selling all?

[ljubenik]

toknormal but then Bitcoin wasn't so widespread and didn't had so big amount of holders  

[toknormal]

toknormal but then Bitcoin wasn't so widespread and didn't had so big amount of holders  

indeed. Which is why it'll possibly bottom out much higher this time - say $800-$1200. That would be superb, not have to go all the way back to $183 like the Elliot Wave guy says we are.

[yermom]

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

No no. You didn't understand.

I won't sell mate

[SERVERIA]

I have been out of the loop for a week or two and I see peeps feeling rather pessimistic about BTCs future short term value.

People? You wanted to say trolls and sockpuppets? 

[Torque]

There are maybe 20M+ bitcoin accounts around the world.

Coinbase has 10.5M alone.

300,000 accounts have ~$5000 each worth of bitcoin in them.

If all those account holders can afford that much, they certainly can afford another $200.

That alone is why bitcoin will never see $200/btc ever again.

Hell, if bitcoin ever went back to triple digits I'm sure the Winklevii, Tim Draper, and Barry Silbert would be jumping in so fast to vacuum them all up. People don't remember the U.S. Marshall auction bidders all going crazy for bitcoin at ~$550/btc. They were bidding on tranches of thousands, tens of thousands.

Also, Chinese miners start losing money selling below $1800-2000/btc.

[toknormal]

There are maybe 20M+ bitcoin accounts around the world.

Coinbase has 10.5M alone.

Those account for a tiny portion of the coin supply. They're also not the holders that drive markets.

Hell, if bitcoin ever went back to triple digits I'm sure the Winklevii, Tim Draper, and Barry Silbert would be jumping in so fast to vacuum them all up.

Only because they'd already dumped into the crash further up.

[Torque]

There are maybe 20M+ bitcoin accounts around the world.

Coinbase has 10.5M alone.

Those account for a tiny portion of the coin supply. They're also not the holders that drive markets.

You can spew your delusional crap all day long, but it's not going to change reality.

Did you sell and now out of position? Trolling now are you?

[toknormal]

You can spew your delusional crap all day long, but it's not going to change reality.

Did you sell and now out of position? Trolling now are you?

No. Still hold all my coins and I generally don't trade into fiat, even when the price is falling. I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

I'm not "trolling", I'm just pointing out that the Elliot Wave analysis posted earlier has some basis, both from the point of view of fundamentals and historically. We've always had a 75% to 90% retrace after a big rise before going any further. Each time people say "but this time it's different" and each time it isn't.

Just sayin

[vroom]

I think the number of coinbase accounts are overrated. there are many coinbase accounts, but I bet a lot of them are unused.

I created a coinbase account for the price alert feature in the coinbase app just to find out it's not working. I removed the app and never used my coinbase account again. And I think many other people did the same thing.

[fabiorem]

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

The volume by that time was smaller than it is now, and there were less users.

Massive user adoption by this year means there will be more people hodling, so the worst case is around $1500-$1800.

Each time a whale sells its coins, at least 10% of the new users will be hodlers, people who don't go all-in with a single product, and who are looking for long-term. So even if the other 90% are newbies and sell it at first panic, the whale will lose bitcoins over time, as each time it dump its coins, more new users come in due to marketing, so each dump its 10% coins being lost to hodlers, which increases the volume over time, pushing the floor up.

[yermom]

You can spew your delusional crap all day long, but it's not going to change reality.

Did you sell and now out of position? Trolling now are you?

No. Still hold all my coins and I generally don't trade into fiat, even when the price is falling. I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

I'm not "trolling", I'm just pointing out that the Elliot Wave analysis posted earlier has some basis, both from the point of view of fundamentals and historically. We've always had a 75% to 90% retrace after a big rise before going any further. Each time people say "but this time it's different" and each time it isn't.

Just sayin

Let's say you are not trolling and I'm going to answer seriously

Honestly I see no big rise. You mentioned x10 rise during last year. The $1200 bubble is x10 in one month
So, if price falls to post $1200bubble levels. I can afford to buy 10 times more bitcoin than I have now without selling, and then people flash/panic buy to $27000? All of this before the end of the year? I hope so

Anyways, there are better strategies if you want to get rid of weak hands

[conspirosphere.tk]

I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

If you "hedge into alts" you don't know what you are doing. Alts always crash harder than btc when the latter goes down.