Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

[RealMachasm]

I have been out of the loop for a week or two and I see peeps feeling rather pessimistic about BTCs future short term value.
Any fundamental reasons for this outlook or is it all just built on TA?
I know that China has recently (couple of weeks back) banned bitcoin (Again), anything else I missed?

[rjclarke2000]

Toknormal have you sold all your coins and going to buy back at $200? Or are you going to wait until after 5k before selling all?

[ljubenik]

toknormal but then Bitcoin wasn't so widespread and didn't had so big amount of holders  

[toknormal]

toknormal but then Bitcoin wasn't so widespread and didn't had so big amount of holders  

indeed. Which is why it'll possibly bottom out much higher this time - say $800-$1200. That would be superb, not have to go all the way back to $183 like the Elliot Wave guy says we are.

[yermom]

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

No no. You didn't understand.

I won't sell mate

[SERVERIA]

I have been out of the loop for a week or two and I see peeps feeling rather pessimistic about BTCs future short term value.

People? You wanted to say trolls and sockpuppets? 

[Torque]

There are maybe 20M+ bitcoin accounts around the world.

Coinbase has 10.5M alone.

300,000 accounts have ~$5000 each worth of bitcoin in them.

If all those account holders can afford that much, they certainly can afford another $200.

That alone is why bitcoin will never see $200/btc ever again.

Hell, if bitcoin ever went back to triple digits I'm sure the Winklevii, Tim Draper, and Barry Silbert would be jumping in so fast to vacuum them all up. People don't remember the U.S. Marshall auction bidders all going crazy for bitcoin at ~$550/btc. They were bidding on tranches of thousands, tens of thousands.

Also, Chinese miners start losing money selling below $1800-2000/btc.

[toknormal]

There are maybe 20M+ bitcoin accounts around the world.

Coinbase has 10.5M alone.

Those account for a tiny portion of the coin supply. They're also not the holders that drive markets.

Hell, if bitcoin ever went back to triple digits I'm sure the Winklevii, Tim Draper, and Barry Silbert would be jumping in so fast to vacuum them all up.

Only because they'd already dumped into the crash further up.

[Torque]

There are maybe 20M+ bitcoin accounts around the world.

Coinbase has 10.5M alone.

Those account for a tiny portion of the coin supply. They're also not the holders that drive markets.

You can spew your delusional crap all day long, but it's not going to change reality.

Did you sell and now out of position? Trolling now are you?

[toknormal]

You can spew your delusional crap all day long, but it's not going to change reality.

Did you sell and now out of position? Trolling now are you?

No. Still hold all my coins and I generally don't trade into fiat, even when the price is falling. I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

I'm not "trolling", I'm just pointing out that the Elliot Wave analysis posted earlier has some basis, both from the point of view of fundamentals and historically. We've always had a 75% to 90% retrace after a big rise before going any further. Each time people say "but this time it's different" and each time it isn't.

Just sayin

[vroom]

I think the number of coinbase accounts are overrated. there are many coinbase accounts, but I bet a lot of them are unused.

I created a coinbase account for the price alert feature in the coinbase app just to find out it's not working. I removed the app and never used my coinbase account again. And I think many other people did the same thing.

[fabiorem]

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

The volume by that time was smaller than it is now, and there were less users.

Massive user adoption by this year means there will be more people hodling, so the worst case is around $1500-$1800.

Each time a whale sells its coins, at least 10% of the new users will be hodlers, people who don't go all-in with a single product, and who are looking for long-term. So even if the other 90% are newbies and sell it at first panic, the whale will lose bitcoins over time, as each time it dump its coins, more new users come in due to marketing, so each dump its 10% coins being lost to hodlers, which increases the volume over time, pushing the floor up.

[yermom]

You can spew your delusional crap all day long, but it's not going to change reality.

Did you sell and now out of position? Trolling now are you?

No. Still hold all my coins and I generally don't trade into fiat, even when the price is falling. I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

I'm not "trolling", I'm just pointing out that the Elliot Wave analysis posted earlier has some basis, both from the point of view of fundamentals and historically. We've always had a 75% to 90% retrace after a big rise before going any further. Each time people say "but this time it's different" and each time it isn't.

Just sayin

Let's say you are not trolling and I'm going to answer seriously

Honestly I see no big rise. You mentioned x10 rise during last year. The $1200 bubble is x10 in one month
So, if price falls to post $1200bubble levels. I can afford to buy 10 times more bitcoin than I have now without selling, and then people flash/panic buy to $27000? All of this before the end of the year? I hope so

Anyways, there are better strategies if you want to get rid of weak hands

[conspirosphere.tk]

I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

If you "hedge into alts" you don't know what you are doing. Alts always crash harder than btc when the latter goes down.

[Meuh6879]

Every bankster has predicted the end of bitcoin as well.
And they "know" about money

proof : https://99bitcoins.com/category/bitcoin-obituaries/

[Karartma1]

I stay in crypto but often hedge into alts.

If you "hedge into alts" you don't know what you are doing. Alts always crash harder than btc when the latter goes down.

I've learned this myself the hard way and I still have to recover my losses (if I will ever succeed). I should have simply stayed all-in on BTC and I could have been a much happier guy. As I always say, mistakes happen for specific reasons and I hope I've learned this time (for good).

[toknormal]

If you "hedge into alts" you don't know what you are doing. Alts always crash harder than btc when the latter goes down.

I think I do know what I'm doing actually.

It all depends on what you're ultimately accumulating. If you're accumulating fiat then, yes it's possibly more optimal to dump bitcoin into fiat in a crash. But if you're only trading against fiat in order to accumulate more BTC then trading the ratio with an alt can be more optimal and require far less capital at risk.

Put it this way. It's worked for 3 years and and I'm not going to change the strategy now.

Honestly I see no big rise.

Try this one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg22201819#msg22201819

You're all very good at consoling yourselves with all kinds of anecdotal comfort theories. Not so great at simply entertaining the stark reality that this rise may have a correction that's no different - proportionally - from all others. Go back and watch that Elliot Wave analysis again. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen but it's at least as likely as anything else, if not more so.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

There's always the chance we can crash and burn. Doom is always just around the corner. This is still Sparta. What can you do?

[3lli0t]

Every bankster has predicted the end of bitcoin as well.
And they "know" about money

http://imagize[Suspicious link removed]ageshack.us/a/img923/4138/1l2QOL.jpg

proof : https://99bitcoins.com/category/bitcoin-obituaries/

Dear friends, almost every bankster and media declared Bitcoin as dead hundreds of times. That website is the proof. Bitcoin still rocking at 3700$ and will skyrocket by the end of the year. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd