Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I predicted on here years ago that when you can buy Bitcoins with a normal brokerage, bitcoin would surge to $10K.  Now up at $8K we get news that BTC will be listed on CME? I dont know what to make of it now that we are already up here. Then the price moves just 10%? I guess insider knowledge of this is what was fueling the rally all along.

Unfortunately the culture of hoarding (hodling) means we are suffering a paucity of coins.  Suggest you revise your prediction upwards.  

personally i think this is the last strong bull phase for bitcoin.  certainly at the moment to buy at 8250 and hope for a 5% rise.  Remember the last bubble, same people saying the same things.  

There are lots of other cryptos that do the same thing better, with more features, faster.  Some have genuine worth and serve an actual purpose.  This bubble IMHO is about to pop.  and lots of new bag holders will be born waiting for months / years for bitcoin to return to where it is. last peak was Dec 2013, 4 years later here we are.  usually the time between bubbles / peaks  is roughly 4 times longer each time.  so we could be looking at 16 years.    In that time im sure bitcoin will not be number 1 any longer.  

Holy fuck... you are coming off as either extremely negative or a troll who is painting a kind of lesser likely and worse case scenario.

I will give it to you that we are experiencing a quite exorbitant BTC price rise, especially when we look at the past two years and the increasing steepness of the curve in recent months.... however, in the end, I don't think that we have quite reached the top, until perhaps if we have a blow-off event, and part of my thinking is attributed to the ongoing recent investments into bitcoin including financial instruments and also bitcoin's seeming dominance / resilience over the recent forkening attempts.

Also, sometimes we cannot really appreciate what has happened until we look at it in retrospect and hopefully attempt to account for the most relevant and material factors, including the quickness in which the price has risen and including the extent to which there has been meaningful price corrections in the upwards journey process.

Maybe we can agree to some history, including the fact that bitcoin experienced nearly a two year bear run in 2014 and 2015 - and confirmed to be out of the bear run in about May/June 2016....

Once bitcoin was out of the bear run (transitioned into a bull run), we can still use the approximate $250 price stability point of 2015 as our starting reference.  Accordingly, it took about a year to triple to $750-ish, and then it took about 9 more months to triple again to $2,500-ish.. .and then it took about 3 months to triple again to $7,500-ish....

Since we are currently in the $7,500-ish price territory it is not easy to determine if this is a stability point, but I suspect that we could achieve at least one more decent blow-off - upwards, and in part I attributed that upwards likelihood to news points that I already mentioned above (namely entrance of additional traditional financial instruments into bitcoin and bitcoin's resilience/dominance in the forkening threats).  Another significant factor remains bitcoin's recent experience of two significant price corrections, which cause additional upwards fuel.  The mid-September correction was clearly and unambiguously 40% from $4,980 to $2,970, and the second correction from a couple weeks ago was clearly and unambiguously 30% from $7,888 to $5555.55......

My point is that we have decent room for another blow-off upwards, and we could get another 3x upwards price from here, and depending upon how quickly it goes up and whether there are corrections along the way could justify the extent to which there will be a crash and the extent to which any such speculated crash will be sustained... so for example, if we shoot up an additional 3x from here without a correction, then yeah, we could thereafter experience a quite considerable and sustained correction.. but it is yet to be seen and determined how quickly we are going up (if so), and since the probabilities of UP seem greater than the probabilities DOWN, we have to witness these first before we speculate too hot and heavily about our desires for down (because it seems to premature to conclude that we are currently over-inflated based on factors that I already have described in this post).

[vroom]

It's 100% scam, the design is similar to S9/S7 he just replaced the sticker and made a fake stat

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/933348194062360577

Au contraire?

qui est-ce monsieur?

fuck off bitmain?

[lightfoot]

It's 100% scam, the design is similar to S9/S7 he just replaced the sticker and made a fake stat

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/933348194062360577

Au contraire?

Well Gleb G hasn’t trolled the thread (yet) with scam accusation so chances are it’s legit….

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2443327.new

Well if someone wants to send me one for an eval I'd be happy to review it and take it apart. if it's just a S7/S9 that would be easy to spot. Likewise if it's legit.

C

[JayJuanGee]

it wont die but it wont be number one.  and if you think segwit is a solution you need your head read.

call me what you want but i would not recommend to buy bitcoin now to friends and family.  its a long way down and regular first time investors will pay the price again, as the bitcoin mafia buy some more castles.

You might be hero or whatever but
- if you think people will choose features over the name/branding, then you know nothing about marketing
- if you think finance will choose innovation over stability and recognition, then you know nothing about finance

Sorry dude, I think you are misguided

Yer hero, jr member means nothing, you're right.

I could be misguided, I'm not pretending to be the oracle.  Just there is no way on this earth i would recommend buying bitcoin at this time.  

I'm 95% that the bear market has just started. and it will be red candles for a long while.

I also expect red candles in the coming months, but you are pushing it too far I think. Seems to be getting common amongst people that were there since the beginning, probably because you have seen an MtGox and you are terrified.
Did you sell your BTCs?

He got 'wiped out' a few years back predicting that the  market was going to go down.

Question is, whats his motivation now or is it a  hacked account?

He is potentially the same troll job nutjob bear on another day....

You know what, if they keep predicting down and the advent of the bear market, sooner or later they will be right and they will never-endingly remind us that they were right (once - while implying that it was more than once).. hahahahahha

[Syke]

Well if someone wants to send me one for an eval I'd be happy to review it and take it apart. if it's just a S7/S9 that would be easy to spot. Likewise if it's legit.

C

Adam's "I have seen it" isn't good enough. Any new mining hardware needs to be hands-on tested by an independent third-party like lightfoot.

[itod]

Well if someone wants to send me one for an eval I'd be happy to review it and take it apart. if it's just a S7/S9 that would be easy to spot. Likewise if it's legit.

C

Adam's "I have seen it" isn't good enough. Any new mining hardware needs to be hands-on tested by an independent third-party like lightfoot.

Isn't good enough for the performance figure, if something claims is 30% better then anything else that exists it has to be independently verified, but is good enough that it is not a scam. Guy has no reason to risk his reputation for something like that.

[jojo69]

mempool spam *check
bch pump *check
tether/bitfinex fud *check
WO bears active *check
bitcointalk ddos *missing

get ready for bitcoin black friday sales, I see a bigger weekend dip coming! get them while they are cheap!

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand

there's the bitcointalk DDOS

[Syke]

Isn't good enough for the performance figure, if something claims is 30% better then anything else that exists it has to be independently verified, but is good enough that it is not a scam. Guy has no reason to risk his reputation for something like that.

Bitmain, Spondoolies, etc. sent out demo units that proved they were real with real specs. If Halong Mining won't do that, I'd consider that a deal-breaker red-flag.

[d_eddie]

mempool spam *check
bch pump *check
tether/bitfinex fud *check
WO bears active *check
bitcointalk ddos *missing

get ready for bitcoin black friday sales, I see a bigger weekend dip coming! get them while they are cheap!

Ready!

[york780]

Bbbut 3k end target from Vinny Lingham?

[rolling]

Isn't good enough for the performance figure, if something claims is 30% better then anything else that exists it has to be independently verified, but is good enough that it is not a scam. Guy has no reason to risk his reputation for something like that.

Bitmain, Spondoolies, etc. sent out demo units that proved they were real with real specs. If Halong Mining won't do that, I'd consider that a deal-breaker red-flag.

Also, even if they have a working prototype, there is no guarantee that they deliver on time and within specs. They are funding the production run with the presale.

[JayJuanGee]

Me too i got burned in 2013 after gox, and now i fear for a similar   bear market to come back.
When bch attacked btc and was getting the majority of hashes i nearly shitted my pants, as i did a couple days ago for the tether news. I am scared, I think it's normal, and I don't even have a big stash of coins!
For some people, the recent surge made them overinvested in bitcoin. They should maybe sell some. But i won't sell, because like now I could buy a nice thing or two but i can't really change my life with  my few btc, and I still dream of being able to do so one day.
I don't know if I'm delusional, but bitcoin is the only asset i know that you can buy if you want to buy this particular hope.

That's about speculation.

About the fundamentals I still think they are very good, and I think core team is doing well too, and that bitcoin will become a main technology in the future and will be widely used. But i think this is only weakly related  with the current (or future) price.

Your level of nervousness seems to strongly suggest that you are a bit over-invested into bitcoin - for your own comfort-level. 

You should not feel so much stress, especially when we are essentially in a bull-market and we have already experienced a lot of price appreciation.  Furthermore,  most of us should already expect bitcoin to be volatile, and even if the odds (and cards) seem to be in favor of continued upwards price movement, manipulation and even just the unpredictableness of the price happens all of the time, so we cannot bank on any situation, especially any kind of expectation or need that the price will go up or to maintain its own.  The most likely thing that we can bank on is ongoing volatility, and that is the part that we have to learn to either take advantage of such expected ongoing volatility or at least engage in measures to ameliorate some of the negative effects of such highly likely volatility expectations.

[itod]

Isn't good enough for the performance figure, if something claims is 30% better then anything else that exists it has to be independently verified, but is good enough that it is not a scam. Guy has no reason to risk his reputation for something like that.

Bitmain, Spondoolies, etc. sent out demo units that proved they were real with real specs. If Halong Mining won't do that, I'd consider that a deal-breaker red-flag.

Also, even if they have a working prototype, there is no guarantee that they deliver on time and within specs. They are funding the production run with the presale.

They may be late with production run, and they may reach 20% instead of 30% better than Bitmain, but let us cheer a little bit because that asshole Jihan Wu will not have a monopoly on quality miners large production capacity any more. It is a good day for BTC.

[jojo69]

They are funding the production run with the presale.

So they take our money, experience "production delays" while the hashrate coincidentally skyrockets, and finally deliver once ROI dropps off.

Ive seen this show before.

[fragout]

They are funding the production run with the presale.

So they take our money, experience "production delays" while the hashrate coincidentally skyrockets, and finally deliver once ROI dropps off.

Ive seen this show before.

butterfly labs. ah the memories

[HairyMaclairy]

Ok what are predictions for this weekend’s FUD bomb?   

[julian071]

Ok what are predictions for this weekend’s FUD bomb?   

I think it's time for another quantum computig breakthrough.

[Dabs]

Looks legit: Dabs has received one to test it

I asked for one, I have not yet received one. I just noticed it today, so I sent them an email asking for one. Let's see if they give it. I'll run it for a week or a month. Then either sell it or have it hosted in the North Pole with Santa.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

It's 100% scam, the design is similar to S9/S7 he just replaced the sticker and made a fake stat

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/933348194062360577

Au contraire?

This makes me happy.

I assume they accept BTC instead of BCash for their miners?

[Dabs]

Yes, they accept Bitcoin... (if they're not confused about which one it is.)