Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Even 126k BTC is crazy for such a simple piece of software which has gone nowhere for months.

It seems we think alike  .

[Rampion]

SatoshiDice is being sold, in full, to a new company that will take over all ownership, operations, and management.  The total sale price is 126,315 BTC, or 0.00126315 BTC per share.

According to the MPEX Agreement, MPEX holders are entitled to receive 0.00126315 BTC per share, alongside other private owners. However, for the good of the MPEX holders and for the sake of the general Bitcoin community, which the site always has intended to support and nurture, SatoshiDice has arranged to pay MPEX holders an additional .00223685 BTC per share bringing the total to 0.0035 BTC per share.

I inferred 350k based on that, since there are apparently 100 million shares.

350k BTC seems to be an insanely huge number.  

SatoshiDice is no small fish.

Well, some action at last. "The Great Coin Distribution" is approaching.

[ChartBuddy]

[N12]

350k BTC seems to be an insanely huge number. 

Fuck it, even 120k is an insanely huge number for a simple website like satoshi dice.  That's 1% of all current bitcoins for a concept that anybody can copy 

I see it the same. For this reason, I'm beginning to favor this scenario: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=258066.msg2751829#msg2751829

[JimboToronto]

Isn't Eric the largest shareholder, and unlikely to dump them quickly, if at all?

While some shareholders may dump, I suspect the sell-off won't be as big as some people anticipate.

The kind of people who buy shares in an enterprise like Satoshi Dice are often either Bitcoin faithful (more likely to hoard) or gamblers (more likely to bet on the more volatile currency).

Yes, there will probably be some dip, but not enough to say goodbye to $100 for more than a few days.

[Rampion]

350k BTC seems to be an insanely huge number. 

Fuck it, even 120k is an insanely huge number for a simple website like satoshi dice.  That's 1% of all current bitcoins for a concept that anybody can copy 

I see it the same. For this reason, I'm beginning to favor this scenario: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=258066.msg2751829#msg2751829

The buyer may well be an established online casino. That would be actually good news, SD needs some big improvement.

Its also possible they have been accumulating, the BTC sum they need is big.

[N12]

Yes, there will probably be some dip, but not enough to say goodbye to $100 for more than a few days.

Just a few months.

I'm afraid many people are in severe denial about the effects of this. I'll be enjoying the "cheap bitcoins!" screams soon.

[CMMPro]

I've kept some fiat ready for the next drop....if it has to come, we will persist.

[Voodah]

350k BTC seems to be an insanely huge number. 

Fuck it, even 120k is an insanely huge number for a simple website like satoshi dice.  That's 1% of all current bitcoins for a concept that anybody can copy 

I see it the same. For this reason, I'm beginning to favor this scenario: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=258066.msg2751829#msg2751829

Still makes no sense.

120k btc = 12 million dollars for a simple website that can be developed for a tiny fraction of the cost, generates little to no revenue and currently stale, with lots of competition popping up.

If big casino owners know one thing, it's not to give money away. Something's fishy here.

[N12]

You think so? Brand and domain might have been worth it to them in addition to the code. Remember they are already generating profits. I don't know much of the gambling business however, and not of SatoshiDice either.

[Rampion]

350k BTC seems to be an insanely huge number. 

Fuck it, even 120k is an insanely huge number for a simple website like satoshi dice.  That's 1% of all current bitcoins for a concept that anybody can copy 

I see it the same. For this reason, I'm beginning to favor this scenario: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=258066.msg2751829#msg2751829

Still makes no sense.

120k btc = 12 million dollars for a simple website that can be developed for a tiny fraction of the cost, generates little to no revenue and currently stale, with lots of competition popping up.

If big casino owners know one thing, it's not to give money away. Something's fishy here.

Well, SD is the absolute market leader. 50% of the transactions on the blockchain are theirs. That has a value. But still I agree that 120k btc is crazy money, and 350k its pure madness (totally unbelievable IMO).

[Rampion]

You think so? Brand and domain might have been worth it to them in addition to the code. Remember they are already generating profits. I don't know much of the gambling business however, and not of SatoshiDice either.

Check this then (very interesting thread to follow): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.1560

Example of how is it going this month so far.

Total of 24 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jul-16 12:42pm (up to block 246908)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25426 |   23023 (0.97866) |     502 |    1901 |   26603.74 |   26164.46 |   241.51 |    439.27 |  98.349
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   193335 |  176016 (0.91540) |   16268 |    1051 |   93427.14 |   92114.33 |     2.82 |   1312.81 |  98.595
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   112158 |   95311 (0.85627) |   15999 |     848 |   92457.26 |   91521.79 |   401.51 |    935.47 |  98.988
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   119581 |   94300 (0.79378) |   24499 |     782 |   75268.98 |   73418.24 |  1188.46 |   1850.74 |  97.541
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   507677 |  372172 (0.73465) |  134429 |    1076 |  336272.64 |  328185.66 |  6173.68 |   8086.97 |  97.595
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   905115 |  451052 (0.49945) |  452046 |    2017 |  798114.52 |  776529.14 |  6524.75 |  21585.38 |  97.295
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1426831 |  695370 (0.48810) |  729279 |    2182 |  988063.13 |  968517.81 |  3003.07 |  19545.32 |  98.022
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   341536 |  125136 (0.36723) |  215625 |     775 |  605381.40 |  596553.60 |  1014.04 |   8827.80 |  98.542
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   363687 |   88548 (0.24406) |  274270 |     869 |  417745.53 |  402519.94 |  2323.71 |  15225.59 |  96.355
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   150615 |   27436 (0.18303) |  122461 |     718 |  188541.71 |  188869.29 |  3315.59 |   -327.58 | 100.174
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   277875 |   33946 (0.12248) |  243204 |     725 |  147836.19 |  147994.99 |   307.35 |   -158.79 | 100.107
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    70897 |    6422 (0.09136) |   63869 |     606 |   19951.31 |   20899.15 |     7.85 |   -947.83 | 104.751
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    43065 |    2647 (0.06210) |   39980 |     438 |    8269.12 |    8222.48 |    31.52 |     46.63 |  99.436
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34552 |    1578 (0.04639) |   32440 |     534 |   11222.72 |   11920.27 |    40.52 |   -697.54 | 106.215
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   122699 |    3716 (0.03041) |  118486 |     497 |   77810.49 |   74090.88 |   155.74 |   3719.60 |  95.220
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29229 |     665 (0.02310) |   28129 |     435 |    8185.82 |    8736.31 |    15.39 |   -550.48 | 106.725
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   188862 |    2885 (0.01534) |  185222 |     755 |   57953.66 |   53732.54 |    31.32 |   4221.11 |  92.716
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43212 |     337 (0.00795) |   42056 |     819 |    8585.16 |    6997.57 |    10.42 |   1587.58 |  81.508
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29236 |     119 (0.00413) |   28663 |     454 |    6156.95 |    8717.39 |    13.38 |  -2560.43 | 141.586
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    24246 |      44 (0.00186) |   23648 |     554 |    2483.10 |    1603.41 |    57.56 |    879.69 |  64.573
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    33752 |      36 (0.00109) |   33127 |     589 |    2281.70 |    1750.87 |   117.25 |    530.83 |  76.735
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    36338 |      17 (0.00047) |   35840 |     481 |    1782.40 |    1911.50 |     1.67 |   -129.09 | 107.243
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    27629 |       5 (0.00018) |   27113 |     511 |     951.67 |     606.99 |    22.28 |    344.68 |  63.782
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    28304 |       5 (0.00018) |   27728 |     571 |     669.20 |     434.20 |    15.55 |    235.00 |  64.884
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16219 |       2 (0.00013) |   15654 |     563 |     242.32 |     320.54 |    18.89 |    -78.21 | 132.278
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14147 |       0 (0.00000) |   13529 |     618 |     199.71 |       0.59 |    31.53 |    199.12 |   0.296
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   169768 |       4 (0.00002) |  166841 |    2923 |    2216.26 |    4485.65 |   198.71 |  -2269.39 | 202.398
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5195129 | 2140284           | 3030867 |   23978 |  982565.01 |  964391.24 |   381.73 |  18173.77 |  98.150
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   140862 |   60508           |   80040 |     314 | 2996108.94 | 2932428.47 | 24884.47 |  63680.46 |  97.875
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  5335991 | 2200792           | 3110907 |   24292 | 3978673.96 | 3896819.72 | 25266.20 |  81854.23 |  97.943
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      81854.23941543 BTC (2.057%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4613.71077500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       77240.52864043 BTC (1.941%)
Pending Liabilities:            1.01526382 BTC
Final SD Profit:            77239.51337661 BTC (1.941%)
Profit This Month:            189.06436327 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 17874656  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9801901  (54.8%)
Blockchain MB:   7875.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4048.9  (51.4%)

[/quote]

[N12]

Seems solid enough to be. Someone could calculate P/E ratios although I'm sure it's been done by people looking to buy shares in the past. Might well be worth 12 million USD at least.

Anyway, I don't think it that important to speculate on this rather than the effect of the BTC on the market.

[Rampion]

Seems solid enough to be. Someone could calculate P/E ratios although I'm sure it's been done by people looking to buy shares in the past. Might well be worth 12 million USD at least.

Anyway, I don't think it that important to speculate on this rather than the effect of the BTC on the market.

Short term? down. But pretty excited for this news overall, if its an established casino it could be a global boost for BTC.

[solex]

189 BTC proft in 1/2 month, so only 27 years to recover the investment. Then free money for the new owners. Woohoo!

[Frozenlock]

189 BTC proft in 1/2 month, so only 27 years to recover the investment. Then free money for the new owners. Woohoo!

Those who made that deal could become salesman for heat pumps! 

[Rampion]

189 BTC proft in 1/2 month, so only 27 years to recover the investment. Then free money for the new owners. Woohoo!

Have you read the SD statystical analysis thread and looked at the monthly profit charts? Big losing strike from 9 to 14 July. Variance. And still BTC77,239.51 total profit so far. At the beginning of 2013, total profit was at aprox. BTC32,000.

Do the math and let me know again.

[Frozenlock]

So, how are we going to refer to the ensuing price drop?

SatoshiDiceddon?

[Rampion]

So, how are we going to refer to the ensuing price drop?

SatoshiDiceddon?

I really invite you check the SatoshiDice statistical analysis thread, you will see how incredible were the profits during the bubble inflation, people gambled like there was no tomorrow. Tens of k's of BTC profit per month.

If this buyout is true is probably the biggest investment ever in the Bitcoin economy, and its not pure speculation. Its big big news, guys.

[notme]

So, how are we going to refer to the ensuing price drop?

SatoshiDiceddon?

I really invite you check the SatoshiDice statistical analysis thread, you will see how incredible were the profits during the bubble inflation, people gambled like there was no tomorrow. Tens of k's of BTC profit per month.

If this buyout is true is probably the biggest investment ever in the Bitcoin economy, and its not pure speculation. Its big big news, guys.

ASICMiner is trading at a market cap of 172k BTC