Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

Falkvinge wants bitcoin to become what he thinks bitcoin was made for.

The most importan claim he makes is that more than 90 percent of the bitcoin-prize is made of speculation. Even if he's wrong and it are 80 or 70 or 60 percent - this is more unnatural and insustaineble than fiat has been in its worst days.

But BTC can be used as a store of value. To look at BTC as just a currency, is cutting it way short.
It is a:
currency
asset
protocol
payment system
store of value
etc.

I don't think we can evaluate that with traditional means. (Not saying it isn't over or under valued though.)

[derpinheimer]

Falkvinge wants bitcoin to become what he thinks bitcoin was made for.

The most importan claim he makes is that more than 90 percent of the bitcoin-prize is made of speculation. Even if he's wrong and it are 80 or 70 or 60 percent - this is more unnatural and insustaineble than fiat has been in its worst days.

I also think bitcoin is overvalued, but the guy seems a bit delusional. Probably sold at $65. Lol.

[Itcher]

Falkvinge wants bitcoin to become what he thinks bitcoin was made for.

The most importan claim he makes is that more than 90 percent of the bitcoin-prize is made of speculation. Even if he's wrong and it are 80 or 70 or 60 percent - this is more unnatural and insustaineble than fiat has been in its worst days.

Actually, it is in line with FOREX volume compared to M1.

to translate: you say "real money" has the same relations? Thanks, that's a good point.

[Itcher]

Falkvinge wants bitcoin to become what he thinks bitcoin was made for.

The most importan claim he makes is that more than 90 percent of the bitcoin-prize is made of speculation. Even if he's wrong and it are 80 or 70 or 60 percent - this is more unnatural and insustaineble than fiat has been in its worst days.

I also think bitcoin is overvalued, but the guy seems a bit delusional. Probably sold at $65. Lol.

take your homework. If Falkvinge sold at 65 he made big wins. He's not a greedy guy but an ideologist. And what we are seeing at this time is a rising price while bitcoin stagnates resp. while those who are trying to make bitcoin work like its designed to work face some regulatory and technical problems which won't be surpassed soon.

[prophetx]

Falkvinge wants bitcoin to become what he thinks bitcoin was made for.

The most importan claim he makes is that more than 90 percent of the bitcoin-prize is made of speculation. Even if he's wrong and it are 80 or 70 or 60 percent - this is more unnatural and insustaineble than fiat has been in its worst days.

I also think bitcoin is overvalued, but the guy seems a bit delusional. Probably sold at $65. Lol.

take your homework. If Falkvinge sold at 65 he made big wins. He's not a greedy guy but an ideologist. And what we are seeing at this time is a rising price while bitcoin stagnates resp. while those who are trying to make bitcoin work like its designed to work face some regulatory and technical problems which won't be surpassed soon.

Look at the amount of articles in the Press section of this website.  There are REAL articles from known media websites and mags, this was NOT the case 6 months ago.  6 months ago Forbes was calling bitcoin a joke.

Now we are getting headlines like this:
The Federal Government's Reaction To Bitcoin Is An Acknowledgement Of The Dollar's Vulnerability -15000+ pageview
www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/08/25/the-federal-governments-reaction-to-bitcoin-is-an-acknowledgement-of-the-dollars-vulnerability/

Follow The Bitcoins: How We Got Busted Buying Drugs On Silk Road's Black Market -50000 pageviews
www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2013/09/05/follow-the-bitcoins-how-we-got-busted-buying-drugs-on-silk-roads-black-market/

Guess what every college student that wants to score some stuff will know exactly how to use SR by spring 2014... I already see it at the uni I am in... last year few used it... now I may have heard rumours of a handful of guys who take orders for others and themselves...

[Walsoraj]

Even if you disagree with Falkvinge's claim that bitcoin is vastly overpriced, does anyone disagree with his "painting the tape" claim? The latter should be obvious to anyone who has been watching tickers the last few months.

[ElectricMucus]

Even if you disagree with Falkvinge's claim that bitcoin is vastly overpriced, does anyone disagree with his "painting the tape" claim? The latter should be obvious to anyone who has been watching tickers the last few months.

I could care less.

[adamstgBit]

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/

whatever happened to write what you know.

this is garbage...

[hlynur]

Guess what every college student that wants to score some stuff will know exactly how to use SR by spring 2014... I already see it at the uni I am in... last year few used it... now I may have heard rumours of a handful of guys who take orders for others and themselves...

this.
I'm not familiar with the current volume of sales on SR.
But from what my flatmate tells me about his student life, word of btc is spreading exponentially at his university since april. especially in the several subcultures with a tendency to drug use.
SR doesn't even represent 1% of worldwide blackmarket and the provided feedback option gives consumers the possibility to be much more safe getting decent quality instead of depending on the little dealer at the corner.
I don't know how governments will handle this but I'm sure that market sector will grow easily by more than 200% within the next years.
Even if govs attempt to take action, it will become a cat-and-mouse game similar to sites offering pirated material.
  

[MickeyT2008]

Guess what every college student that wants to score some stuff will know exactly how to use SR by spring 2014... I already see it at the uni I am in... last year few used it... now I may have heard rumours of a handful of guys who take orders for others and themselves...

this.
I'm not familiar with the current volume of sales on SR.
But from what my flatmate tells me about his student life, word of btc is spreading exponentially at his university since april. especially in the several subcultures with a tendency to drug use.
SR doesn't even represent 1% of worldwide blackmarket and the provided feedback option gives consumers the possibility to be much more safe getting decent quality instead of depending on the little dealer at the corner.
I don't know how governments will handle this but I'm sure that market sector will grow easily by more than 200% within the next years.
Even if govs attempt to take action, it will become a cat-and-mouse game similar to sites offering pirated material.
  

From having had a look at Silk Road I see that the prices are such that if I was interested in using it then that would be as a seller, not a buyer because the prices are about double what they should be.  A lot of people are making a lot of cash there, that's for sure.

No, I haven't bought or sold anything there myself; I don't find prison food appealing.  (to be honest I don't find my own cooking very appealing either!)(and I haven't tried prison food, for all I know it could be better than my cooking)

Silk Road might be anonymous but going to the post office every day to post boxes of drugs definitely isn't, nor is ordering them to your address as if you're innocently buying things from Amazon.


Back on topic, I wonder if the price is going to break the $150 psychological barrier any time soon, and what will happen afterwards.  The person who keeps placing these large buys seems to be being careful not to shove the price too close to $150, and then waiting for it to fall back and the ask pressure to build again to avoid slippage each time before he next buys in.

[ChartBuddy]

[prophetx]

Guess what every college student that wants to score some stuff will know exactly how to use SR by spring 2014... I already see it at the uni I am in... last year few used it... now I may have heard rumours of a handful of guys who take orders for others and themselves...

this.
I'm not familiar with the current volume of sales on SR.
But from what my flatmate tells me about his student life, word of btc is spreading exponentially at his university since april. especially in the several subcultures with a tendency to drug use.
SR doesn't even represent 1% of worldwide blackmarket and the provided feedback option gives consumers the possibility to be much more safe getting decent quality instead of depending on the little dealer at the corner.
I don't know how governments will handle this but I'm sure that market sector will grow easily by more than 200% within the next years.
Even if govs attempt to take action, it will become a cat-and-mouse game similar to sites offering pirated material.
  

From having had a look at Silk Road I see that the prices are such that if I was interested in using it then that would be as a seller, not a buyer because the prices are about double what they should be.  A lot of people are making a lot of cash there, that's for sure.

No, I haven't bought or sold anything there myself; I don't find prison food appealing.  (to be honest I don't find my own cooking very appealing either!)(and I haven't tried prison food, for all I know it could be better than my cooking)

Silk Road might be anonymous but going to the post office every day to post boxes of drugs definitely isn't, nor is ordering them to your address as if you're innocently buying things from Amazon.


Back on topic, I wonder if the price is going to break the $150 psychological barrier any time soon, and what will happen afterwards.  The person who keeps placing these large buys seems to be being careful not to shove the price too close to $150, and then waiting for it to fall back and the ask pressure to build again to avoid slippage each time before he next buys in.

you are assuming that some of the items available in SR are available in all geographies which is not the case.  for many due to geography the prices are competitive and the quality is better, and there is more available.

also there is the issue with quality control via the crowd, and not having to see deal with someone face to face, some of who can be unpleasant or unsavory

as far as selling... all you need is a box, tape, wrapping, a scale, and stamps and you can leave the packages at many places for the post man to pick up

as far as receiving, i am sure the post office will deliver any package addressed to Ronald McDonald at my house and many others...

[ElectricMucus]

Even if govs attempt to take action, it will become a cat-and-mouse game similar to sites offering pirated material.
  

Not really. The endgame is a cipher-space cloud hosting infrastructure. Good luck with that...

[Phinnaeus Gage]

I propose changing the title to this to: Wall Observer - MtGox $140 USD Watch - Softcore

Did I miss the memo showing the trading bots are on holiday or strike?

And what's up with CharBuddy's charts no longer showing? Just when I started to understand them, they go dark.

Full disclosure: I'm a couple three pages behind, thus perhaps the answers lie within.

[Adrian-x]

Full disclosure: I'm a couple three pages behind, thus perhaps the answers lie within.

If only there was a cost (albeit paper) to farting out an idea I wouldn't spend so much time sifting through this methane.

[JimboToronto]

what's up with CharBuddy's charts no longer showing?

Have to ask ChartBuddy. I don't see them either.

[adamstgBit]

what's up with CharBuddy's charts no longer showing?

Have to ask ChartBuddy. I don't see them either.

the site where the img are hosted is down

[Adrian-x]

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/#comment-115757

This divided by that—easy peasy. Falkvinge should run the Fed.

lol

Jokes aside, the true believers now are a different flock than they were 2 years ago...

Lol, I love you Mucus, the trolls haven't changed either (but for there avatars)

I was a skeptic @ $1, a true believe @ $2 and skeptic @ $10 and now I'm flying with a new flock over an activity volcano @ over $100. Sure times have changed.

Survival of the fittest still drivers Evolution.

I'd love to know if you like Bitcoin excluding the people who make it up...

[telemaco]

Falkvinge wants bitcoin to become what he thinks bitcoin was made for.

The most importan claim he makes is that more than 90 percent of the bitcoin-prize is made of speculation. Even if he's wrong and it are 80 or 70 or 60 percent - this is more unnatural and insustaineble than fiat has been in its worst days.

But BTC can be used as a store of value. To look at BTC as just a currency, is cutting it way short.
It is a:
currency
asset
protocol
payment system
store of value
etc.

I don't think we can evaluate that with traditional means. (Not saying it isn't over or under valued though.)

+1

(it is also a programmable asset -> possible bond, contract, share, and many more possibilities)

I am buying with bitcoin sometimes but I am using it like a store of value. I cannot say the same with fiat. Neither can cypriots or polish elders

In the same way. What is the money velocity of gold?. Of all the tons of gold around the world, how many are being used to buy stuff around?. Maybe gold should be also valued at 1$?. It is being used as a store of value. Not everything is buying stuff on walmart.

The determinants and consequent stability of the velocity of money are a subject of controversy across and within schools of economic thought. Those favoring a quantity theory of money have tended to believe that, in the absence of inflationary or deflationary expectations, velocity will be technologically determined and stable, and that such expectations will not generally arise without a signal that overall prices have changed or will change. This view has been discredited by the precipitous fall in velocity in the Japanese "Lost Decade" and the worldwide "Great Recession" and its aftermath of 2008–10

Not the case for bitcoin, gold or lately even fiat.

Some people have incorrectly interpreted velocity to mean the time between receipt of income and when it is spent. Note that how much income is spent helps determine GDP, but when during a pay period it is spent is immaterial. There could be a large volume of spending by people who waited a long time between receiving income and spending it. They could store their income in non-money forms, such as stocks and bonds, between receiving income and spending it. So that notion of "how fast income is spent" is a fallacy

[ChartBuddy]