Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

i'm going for a nap, wake me up when we break some technical

[1715179549]

1715179549

[BlueTemplar]

You don't have to sell before the "big crash", you can sell in the first rebound. This is the big secret that keeps your stress levels low. Sure you lose some %, but this is a very risk free tactic vs. try to catch the top.

Yeah, but that rebound could be so fast you would miss it (you know : at work, or asleep...), or it could be barely higher than before the increase, like this april...

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

Because I guess that's would just be admitting defeat. And if I sold at 15$ or lower after buying at 28$ in 2011 I think I would have been so burned that I wouldn't have bought back in at 4$.

So I guess I'm going to stop trying to trade and just hold (and sell once in a while)... Investing additional funds at this point is too risky in the big picture, since with these price increases I now already have 90%+ of my assets in bitcoins...

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

I have an interesting decision to make. I'll not be able to trade over the week-end, and probably for the whole next week.
Most of the coins were moved to a cold wallet.
Now, what to do with the rest...
Initially I planned to sell all and place scattered buy orders from below 250 and down to 150 with 3-5 dollar distance, and see which of them would get filled during my absence.
Looking at the latest development and extrapolating what happened in April, I am starting to get inclined to do the opposite: place scattered sell orders from 350 and up to 600, and hope that the top will not arrive before that, to subsequently re-buy at the new level, which I think will be around 400 (+/-100).
Any input from the experts?

You could always donate them to me!  ;-)  It would sure help my .19 BTC wallet expand slightly...


1L8waShNounfcxzCk4bsWr7Re1xRtmyvvP

[aenemic]

There would be no point to this whole experiment if not to change the world for the better! SeansOutpost is really showing the way  forward for the bitcoin community!

[haightst]

The amount of coins on sale on the exchange is shrinking fast. Only 6k on sale on BTCChina, 7k on Bitstamp, 11k on Gox.

This is the "all time low" in terms of BTC on sale. Just think about how Avalon holds 65k coins in one address.

In my opinion is not a very good sign, it would be better for the trend to be fueled by new money in instead of scarcity of supply - just because the scarcity can be easily reversed by only one big holder.

I guess this is the nature of "penny stock market", and BTC behaves completely as a penny stock market.

Tighten your seat belts.

Thing is, more coins than ever are locked up for the time being and can't make it to the exchanges in the foreseeable future.

The FBI has 174.000 BTC and probably won't be able to sell them until after the case against Ulbricht

Bitcoin Investment Trust has 60.000+ BTC locked up that they are obliged to hold on to for their customers for probably at least a year (the number is based on the fact that they had 15.000.000 USD invested when the exchange rate was ~250 USD/BTC). This number will probably rise quite a bit in the coming months as they will buy more bitcoins to supply to new customers.

Possibly, the success of BIT will make other high profile individuals/companies imitate them and start buying up coins to start competing businesses. This would lead to additionally 10ks of coins being looked up for the time being. This is just speculation though, but a fairly reasonable assumption as far as I'm concerned.

You also have the Winklevii twins claiming they had 1%+ of all bitcoins in the beginning of the year waiting for their ETF. That's at least 110.000 BTC.

We also have Chamath Palihapitiya, ex Facebook-executive, who claimed to have 5.000.000 USD invested in BTC at the end of october. At the exchange rate back then, that would be 25.000+ BTC. He also said he was still looking to acquire more.

And there is a very high likelihood we have unknown high profile investors who have made private bets but hasn't said so officially. This is hard to quantify, but I belive this is at least a multiple of 10ks of bitcoins being locked up for the time being in anonymous rich investors' wallets.

If you add it all up, far more coins are being "on hold" right now, than ever before.

40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet.

Please, make it rain! =) ANY Love ~>i'll keep the "LIGHTS ON" to 500+!!!

/\BTC---> 14Spqzqa1KDHqttqoADEYEakbLTJDTeqoo

*MMany thanks&blessed!!!

[Sitarow]

Somewhat related: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Big spike in 10 year rate today.

IS the Jobs report not bassed on unemployment numbers that are no longer qualify for subsidies? Once off the support network they are no longer reported on the unemployment numbers, giving a false impression of job growth.

[2_Thumbs_Up]

The amount of coins on sale on the exchange is shrinking fast. Only 6k on sale on BTCChina, 7k on Bitstamp, 11k on Gox.

This is the "all time low" in terms of BTC on sale. Just think about how Avalon holds 65k coins in one address.

In my opinion is not a very good sign, it would be better for the trend to be fueled by new money in instead of scarcity of supply - just because the scarcity can be easily reversed by only one big holder.

I guess this is the nature of "penny stock market", and BTC behaves completely as a penny stock market.

Tighten your seat belts.

Thing is, more coins than ever are locked up for the time being and can't make it to the exchanges in the foreseeable future.

The FBI has 174.000 BTC and probably won't be able to sell them until after the case against Ulbricht

Bitcoin Investment Trust has 60.000+ BTC locked up that they are obliged to hold on to for their customers for probably at least a year (the number is based on the fact that they had 15.000.000 USD invested when the exchange rate was ~250 USD/BTC). This number will probably rise quite a bit in the coming months as they will buy more bitcoins to supply to new customers.

Possibly, the success of BIT will make other high profile individuals/companies imitate them and start buying up coins to start competing businesses. This would lead to additionally 10ks of coins being looked up for the time being. This is just speculation though, but a fairly reasonable assumption as far as I'm concerned.

You also have the Winklevii twins claiming they had 1%+ of all bitcoins in the beginning of the year waiting for their ETF. That's at least 110.000 BTC.

We also have Chamath Palihapitiya, ex Facebook-executive, who claimed to have 5.000.000 USD invested in BTC at the end of october. At the exchange rate back then, that would be 25.000+ BTC. He also said he was still looking to acquire more.

And there is a very high likelihood we have unknown high profile investors who have made private bets but hasn't said so officially. This is hard to quantify, but I belive this is at least a multiple of 10ks of bitcoins being locked up for the time being in anonymous rich investors' wallets.

If you add it all up, far more coins are being "on hold" right now, than ever before.

40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet.

I feel like we have almost all the ingredients neccessary for "the perfect storm", the only one missing is a financial crisis of some sort, the Cyprus ingredient. Then, we would see a rally.

[Voodah]

40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet.

Drool

  Eye drool

Can't stop myself either. He really is a BTC multimillionaire. So jelly

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

Somewhat related: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Big spike in 10 year rate today.

IS the Jobs report not bassed on unemployment numbers that are no longer qualify for subsidies? Once off the support network they are no longer reported on the unemployment numbers, giving a false impression of job growth.

Don't forget that government workers who were furloughed and did get back pay were considered "employed" while the ones that worked for free were considered "unemployed" thus skewing the results even further...

[bassclef]

I have an interesting decision to make. I'll not be able to trade over the week-end, and probably for the whole next week.
Most of the coins were moved to a cold wallet.
Now, what to do with the rest...
Initially I planned to sell all and place scattered buy orders from below 250 and down to 150 with 3-5 dollar distance, and see which of them would get filled during my absence.
Looking at the latest development and extrapolating what happened in April, I am starting to get inclined to do the opposite: place scattered sell orders from 350 and up to 600, and hope that the top will not arrive before that, to subsequently re-buy at the new level, which I think will be around 400 (+/-100).
Any input from the experts?

You could always donate them to me!  ;-)  It would sure help my .19 BTC wallet expand slightly...


1L8waShNounfcxzCk4bsWr7Re1xRtmyvvP

Ha. I'm hurting too, lost 65btc to Yifu in the chip debacle. I try not to think about it. Any wealthy sugar daddy wants to help heal the pain...

1BjoVoDPzMpNXoyBZ6cK5qJ5nxxQcu8mWS

[wachtwoord]

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64
Then we can say X/269=3.64...   X= $980
Is that our top? 

I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run

Brother Rampion, hope you are well!

You bring up a great point. I really wonder about selling some at 700 ish (to make up for my initial investment, or maybe 1/2 of it). Then just watch the next 5 years unfold.

Now, when BTC goes to 10,000 dollars, that is when we need to start giving away BTC's to organizations to change the world. Just think of what Satoshi could do there...
Remember, this is a disruptive technology, let's disrupt.

IAS

ps - Yes, the mining investments were bad for me too. But, we will still make our money back at higher prices, so just look at it as a hobby that pays for itself.

Like the perspective you put things in. Im proud of being part of this.

Lets disrupt. GO black swan 

To celibate this I made:

[Its About Sharing]

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64
Then we can say X/269=3.64...   X= $980
Is that our top? 

I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run

Brother Rampion, hope you are well!

You bring up a great point. I really wonder about selling some at 700 ish (to make up for my initial investment, or maybe 1/2 of it). Then just watch the next 5 years unfold.

Now, when BTC goes to 10,000 dollars, that is when we need to start giving away BTC's to organizations to change the world. Just think of what Satoshi could do there...
Remember, this is a disruptive technology, let's disrupt.

IAS

ps - Yes, the mining investments were bad for me too. But, we will still make our money back at higher prices, so just look at it as a hobby that pays for itself.

Like the perspective you put things in. Im proud of being part of this.

Lets disrupt. GO black swan 

There are for sure smart investors here. But the basis of what BTC is, is about what Satoshi said. The banking system is corrupt. They profit from: war (killing), from the drug trade (Wachovia and HSBC laundered pretty close to a TRILLION I believe), from the drug war, imprisoning people with debt, etc.

Many BTC'ers represent what BTC itself represents, naturally. Good news for planet Earth.

BTC stands for something and those of you out there who have lots, I really hope you help to change the place. We have that power, just need a bit more time.

And the Universe just loves those that take chances on life. It opens doors for you.  (Think Terrence McKenna said something like that before.)

IAS

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

40000 here that will not be for sale any time soon. Might move more from my active trading wallet.

Drool

  Eye drool

Can't stop myself either. He really is a BTC multimillionaire. So jelly

do
whine, pray, buy, mine, beg
until (my_btc)>=(your_btc)


Also, BTC512 wall at 330 on bitstamp

[TheKoziTwo]

Bulls woke up, put on their shades, and were all like http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XGp5ix8HE

Jesus, I'm still listening to this song.

[haightst]

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp

In the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.

Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...

Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...

Add to my math, but keeping it simple. If we do 266(top)/73 = 3.64
Then we can say X/269=3.64...   X= $980
Is that our top?  

I have to say that's the top I have in my mind. My initial plan is to realize some profits at $700, and some more at $970. I mean... x30 profit on average is good enough to cash in some fiat for me. But I will keep most of my BTC stash for the long run

Brother Rampion, hope you are well!

You bring up a great point. I really wonder about selling some at 700 ish (to make up for my initial investment, or maybe 1/2 of it). Then just watch the next 5 years unfold.

Now, when BTC goes to 10,000 dollars, that is when we need to start giving away BTC's to organizations to change the world. Just think of what Satoshi could do there...
Remember, this is a disruptive technology, let's disrupt.

IAS

ps - Yes, the mining investments were bad for me too. But, we will still make our money back at higher prices, so just look at it as a hobby that pays for itself.

Like the perspective you put things in. Im proud of being part of this.

Lets disrupt. GO black swan  

There are for sure smart investors here. But the basis of what BTC is, is about what Satoshi said. The banking system is corrupt. They profit from: war (killing), from the drug trade (Wachovia and HSBC laundered pretty close to a TRILLION I believe), from the drug war, imprisoning people with debt, etc.

Many BTC'ers represent what BTC itself represents, naturally. Good news for planet Earth.

BTC stands for something and those of you out there who have lots, I really hope you help to change the place. We have that power, just need a bit more time.

And the Universe just loves those that take chances on life. It opens doors for you.  (Think Terrence McKenna said something like that before.)

IAS

===OMEGA POINT=====
Hello, BTCwall at /\$512ish in my BTCitcoin camp!

[Adrian-x]

Historically, my ridiculous bearishness has cost me.  Just ask adam.

But it gained you your own theme song. That's got to be worth something.

Welcome back Prodhorn. Good to see you your bearish commentary has helped spread Bitcoin far and wide. You can't say profits are losses. Know when the less you profit it allows others to profit and the network to grow. Bitcoin is limited after all.

As long as you are never 100% out the profit flame is alive.

And well the song who can forget the song.  

[jojo69]

Bulls woke up, put on their shades, and were all like http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XGp5ix8HE

Jesus, I'm still listening to this song.

+1

[gandhibt]

You don't have to sell before the "big crash", you can sell in the first rebound. This is the big secret that keeps your stress levels low. Sure you lose some %, but this is a very risk free tactic vs. try to catch the top.

Yeah, but that rebound could be so fast you would miss it (you know : at work, or asleep...), or it could be barely higher than before the increase, like this april...

Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?

Because I guess that's would just be admitting defeat. And if I sold at 15$ or lower after buying at 28$ in 2011 I think I would have been so burned that I wouldn't have bought back in at 4$.

So I guess I'm going to stop trying to trade and just hold (and sell once in a while)... Investing additional funds at this point is too risky in the big picture, since with these price increases I now already have 90%+ of my assets in bitcoins...

April rebound was 170-175 and slower rebound to the same highs after that.

Buying back with loss is not defeat if you zoom out your perspective just a little bit.

[haightst]

RE: And the Universe just loves those that take chances on life. It opens doors for you.  (Think Terrence McKenna said something like that before.)



((((((((((((((((CLICK))))))))))))))))))
vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv

http://www.consciousness-evolution.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/e46908c9.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Also, they can fuck up your brain...