Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

Yeah, but we already spent 1/3 of 2018 going down. We might need another 1/3 just to inch back to 1/1/2018 levels, and the rest to try to break the ATH in nov/dec.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, no straight lines in this racket.

It kinda feels that 2018 might be a quiet year.

But after that, 2019 might be another "year of bitcoin", just like 2017.

How would you know whether we are in store for a quiet year or an exciting year, in the remainder of 2018?

  It seems to me that the BTC price battle is continuing and ongoing. 

Sure, there may be a bit of a slow down in apparent action in recent times, but the warring sides in this battle are likely regrouping rather than giving up (you do not have any evidence that one side or the other is giving up at this current price or that one side dominates the current BTC price direction), and we cannot rule out the continuation of the BTC price battle or that BTC price matters are going to be quiet in the coming 7 months or more.. we also have some restless alt-coins, too.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, but we already spent 1/3 of 2018 going down. We might need another 1/3 just to inch back to 1/1/2018 levels, and the rest to try to break the ATH in nov/dec.

You have been talking this bullshit and non-substantiated bearish talking points in the past several months... Sounds like you are wishing rather than speaking based on actual evidence.  Furthermore you have been talking BTC prices down from $6700 to our yesterday's $9,700 price, but we barely had any price corrections from $6700 to $9700, and personally, I had not had any chance to buy back any BTC, until the past day or so... ..

So, yeah, I was glad to have some opportunity to buy back some bitcoins, and this BTC price correction of the past 24 hours does not mean that UP is over or that $10k resistance is not going to be tested or even broken.  So, hang on Phil_S, and don't expect that there is only one BTC price direction when you have already  been considerably wrong in your doom and gloom nonsense of the past months, and I suppose you would have thought that we would be down to $3k by now, and hardly gotten even close to that, yet.

[HairyMaclairy]

Eh you can go a bit easier JJG his comment wasn’t unreasonable. 

[Icygreen]

Eh you can go a bit easier JJG his comment wasn’t unreasonable. 

Yup, I waz thinking the same. I enjoy hearing others sentiments/predictions and I wouldnt want others remaining silent for fear of being heavily critiqued.  Just sayin.

[JayJuanGee]

Eh you can go a bit easier JJG his comment wasn’t unreasonable.  

Yes his comment was unreasonable...  , especially because talking about seeming inevitable down.. which has been the theme of several of his recent posts to my recollection.. ...

Hasn't Phil_S been spouting out down statements for at least a couple of months now?  Seems like it.. in my fuzzy recollection, without my reviewing all of his recent posts...

Eh you can go a bit easier JJG his comment wasn’t unreasonable.  

Yup, I waz thinking the same. I enjoy hearing others sentiments/predictions and I wouldnt want others remaining silent for fear of being heavily critiqued.  Just sayin.

Posters can say whatever they want, including your assertions that you believe that my comments are too strong.. and I can disagree, too..    That's right.

I am not trying to silence anyone from making their statements.  Make it, and I will disagree, too, if that seems fitting from my perspective.

On the other hand, peeps should have the ability to defend whatever they say in this thread and why they said it.  That is called interaction on the interwebs, and perhaps helps folks to learn why they say certain things.. Including myself....

Oh, we don't want to scare peeps... blah blah blah..   Get out of here.   

[El duderino_]

Stil 16hours off the critical 24h to go
Sit tight and wait for it

Bear trap @ $8,900 by the looks of it.

Last 24 hours were critical at testing support at $9k. Looks like she's going to hold this time.

We are neither rich, nor poor, yet.

HODL on.

thats the thing i absolutly will do "hodl on"
so still around 8hours of the critical 24h to go

than we go to the next fase where we have to retest another critical 24h zone , yeah it keep us busy by just looking to the criticalness 

[mike4001]

Halfening is 2020 - and there may be a bit of a delay in the upwards BTC price pressures that come from the halfening dynamics....

So probably better for folks to have plans of HODL their BTC (and accumulate) at least until the end of 2020 and perhaps into 2021 - of course, halfening pump of BTC price could get priced into bitcoin before the actual halfening date (which will likely be early 2020), so that early pump might be a factor to watch. 

Furthermore, looking at your seemingly linear chart (your cute straight line), even though retrospectively you might be able to draw a straight line in terms of bitcoin price movement, it is not really easy to project a straight-line for future BTC price performance... so in that regard, actual BTC price performance can go way below the line or way above the line, even while the line might be amongst the most reasonable of floor scenarios (BTC does not tend to be reasonable).

How much did the price increase during the last halvenings?

[Phil_S]

Hasn't Phil_S been spouting out down statements for at least a couple of months now?

Hmm... no. You're mixing me with someone else.

[JayJuanGee]

Hasn't Phil_S been spouting out down statements for at least a couple of months now?

Hmm... no. You're mixing me with someone else.

O.k.... fair enough...

Even if you have not been predicting BTC down... you still did say sideways... so, that seems a bit presumptuous, even though such sideways could be possible .. and even down is possible... but like I already mentioned, I don't really see any conclusive evidence of waning interest that suggests that it is more likely that we are in a 2014 scenario as compared with a early 2013 scenario.. even though there are others who are suggesting deadness for the next several months and even a need to correct down to $3k-ish.

[JayJuanGee]

Halfening is 2020 - and there may be a bit of a delay in the upwards BTC price pressures that come from the halfening dynamics....

So probably better for folks to have plans of HODL their BTC (and accumulate) at least until the end of 2020 and perhaps into 2021 - of course, halfening pump of BTC price could get priced into bitcoin before the actual halfening date (which will likely be early 2020), so that early pump might be a factor to watch. 

Furthermore, looking at your seemingly linear chart (your cute straight line), even though retrospectively you might be able to draw a straight line in terms of bitcoin price movement, it is not really easy to project a straight-line for future BTC price performance... so in that regard, actual BTC price performance can go way below the line or way above the line, even while the line might be amongst the most reasonable of floor scenarios (BTC does not tend to be reasonable).

How much did the price increase during the last halvenings?

Well you can look at the charts in late 2015 and early 2016 - and even there was a lot of nonsense spread around that the halvening was going to create the opposite direction (DOWN rather than UP) because miners are going to lose their incentive to mine.. blah blah blah..  .. anyhow, the halvening was mid -2016 - and the price rise was likely not until several months later and the resolution of various BIG blocker issues.. and anyhow, I believe that it is fairly logical that the ongoing restricted supply that resulted from the halvening in mid-2016 had its wearing affect on the available supply of BTC, which also contributed to the price rises of 2017....

Sure, we cannot trace one source for any BTC price movement, but if you really understand bitcoin, you are going to also recognize that some of the FUDsters were spreading the opposite and even illogical talking points that just did not make any sense about what kind of effect the lessening of the increases in the bitcoin supply had on causing upwards BTC price pressures.

[Phil_S]

Hasn't Phil_S been spouting out down statements for at least a couple of months now?

Hmm... no. You're mixing me with someone else.

O.k.... fair enough...

Even if you have not been predicting BTC down... you still did say sideways... so, that seems a bit presumptuous, even though such sideways could be possible .. and even down is possible... but like I already mentioned, I don't really see any conclusive evidence of waning interest that suggests that it is more likely that we are in a 2014 scenario as compared with a early 2013 scenario.. even though there are others who are suggesting deadness for the next several months and even a need to correct down to $3k-ish.

Hmm... no, I didn't say sideways. I said "we might spend a second third of 2018 inching back to 1/1/2018 levels". That's not sideways. And you saw my graph with a tiny train. That "cute straight line" going where?

[STT]

How much did the price increase during the last halvenings?

Markets never work like this, because it was a well known event the price rose before.    When actual halfening occurred, the price fell or was weaker for a while at least.   Too much anticipation for an event which is gradual and accumulates on the lower block reward.
However some of the rise going through 2017 is attributable to the reduced supply via lower block reward, its not as obvious but its part of the background story.    Same as when I'm bullish on BTC when the fees are lower, it help raise participation.


Price is very bullish through lines of resistance, 9k hold looked good from the start and this big bar confirms a break up past previous negative action. Looks positive to me

[HairyMaclairy]

Where did that little candle come from?

Holy stop hunter

[JayJuanGee]

Hasn't Phil_S been spouting out down statements for at least a couple of months now?

Hmm... no. You're mixing me with someone else.

O.k.... fair enough...

Even if you have not been predicting BTC down... you still did say sideways... so, that seems a bit presumptuous, even though such sideways could be possible .. and even down is possible... but like I already mentioned, I don't really see any conclusive evidence of waning interest that suggests that it is more likely that we are in a 2014 scenario as compared with a early 2013 scenario.. even though there are others who are suggesting deadness for the next several months and even a need to correct down to $3k-ish.

Hmm... no, I didn't say sideways. I said "we might spend a second third of 2018 inching back to 1/1/2018 levels". That's not sideways. And you saw my graph with a tiny train. That "cute straight line" going where?

sideways?  hahahahahaha  or maybe gradualism?  bitcoin no work like that, right?  bitcoin no follow chart, right?

Edit: I just looked back at those posts, and I see that I already responded to both your train on a slope chart and then your subsequent "quiet bitcoin" assertion post.

[petahashminer]

Where did that little candle come from?

Holy stop hunter

i think this is an exact example of FAT finger. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Surely you can’t have a fat finger in two directions.

[bitserve]

Wow, that perfect clearing of tight positions!

[Karartma1]

In the last few weeks that looks like a pattern to me  fat finger or not, that's manipulation simple and clean. maybe tether shit all the way.
but who am I to say this

[El duderino_]