Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

I was buying at $750 in January 2014 and here we are in 2018.  

Did I think we would reach $7,500 by now?  Not really.  Does anyone really understand the consequences of a deflationary monetary supply?  I think Paul Krugman does, and it gives him the cold sweats at 3am.

[Rosewater Foundation]

I was buying at $750 in January 2014 and here we are in 2018.  

Did I think we would reach $7,500 by now?  Not really.  Does anyone really understand the consequences of a deflationary monetary supply?  I think Paul Krugman does, and it gives him the cold sweats at 3am.

Not really. It's kind of new it seems.

[mindrust]

Money or time.

Hold $250 through 4 halvenings and see how you go with that.  

Assuming a 10x per halvening, that’s $2.5 million

Bitcoin at $95M/btc in 16 years? HIGHLY doubtful. Can I smoke what your smoking?  

Why not? Bitcoin can only be stopped  when it absorbs every paper money out there and the amount of papers out there is infinite as long as they keep printing.

They can stop bitcoin's growth only when they stop printing money. As long as they keep printing, some of it will always flow into btc no matter what.

[Biodom]

Most people just don't have the patience to hold any asset for a long period of time before selling. They feel that 1-3 years is about all they can do before they get the itch to liquidate.

The other reason that most people don't 'get rich' is they simply never invest *enough* in the first place.

I have a few points on this...

1. When you are young, 3 years is almost an eternity.
2. When you were even younger, you did not have the luxury of watching what happened to a stock a decade after you held it for a few years, then sold. Grant you, in most cases it would be NOTHING, but cases like AAPL or AMZN make you learn something and, hopefully, use later.
3. When you are younger, you usually don't have enough capital to invest meaningful sums, hence #1-2.
4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it? Give it to the second and third generation so they can do something stupid with it?
5. Overall, people tend to sell winning investments too soon and hold losers for too long. It's basic psychology. Avoiding taking/booking a loss.
People investing in stocks either lose everything or at best brake even. I zeroed one brokerage account myself some years ago.

[TERA2]

Money or time.

Hold $250 through 4 halvenings and see how you go with that.  

Assuming a 10x per halvening, that’s $2.5 million

Bitcoin at $95M/btc in 16 years? HIGHLY doubtful. Can I smoke what your smoking?  

But... if this doesn't happen and we only get,  say $50M/btc in 16 years or we have to wait 20 years to get $95M/btc, then thats BEARISH! What are you some kind of bear? You think bitcoin is dying? You just want to watch the world burn?

[Torque]

Money or time.

Hold $250 through 4 halvenings and see how you go with that.  

Assuming a 10x per halvening, that’s $2.5 million

Bitcoin at $95M/btc in 16 years? HIGHLY doubtful. Can I smoke what your smoking?  

Why not? Bitcoin can only be stopped  when it absorbs every paper money out there and the amount of papers out there is infinite as long as they keep printing.

They can stop bitcoin's growth only when they stop printing money. As long as they keep printing, some of it will always flow into btc no matter what.

In terms of price growth, I'm more apt to believe a trajectory based on logarithmic regression and Metcalfes' Law where the price growth slows down over time:



So in 16 years, we'd be lucky to be at a few mil. Maybe ~$10M if we're really lucky.

[HairyMaclairy]

Where does your Metcalfe's law chart put Bitcoin in 2036 after 4 halvenings + 2 years to shake out?

[TERA2]

[HairyMaclairy]

Berkshire Hathaway is a shitcoin. 

[jojo69]

4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

[Biodom]

In terms of price growth, I'm more apt to believe a trajectory based on logarithmic regression and Metcalfes' Law where the price growth slows down over time:



So in 16 years, we'd be lucky to be at a few mil. Maybe ~$10M if we're really lucky.

That's actually not Metcalfe's law, but a modification that he does not agree with (nlogn instead of n^2)
It was made by Odlyzko and Briscoe under the title "Metcalfe's law is wrong" (sic!)
See here:
https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/

That said, who knows what the graph would show in 10 years.

[Torque]

4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

Warren Buffett is worth $87B. But he's also an 87 year old man that lives in the same house he bought for $32K and eats McDonald's every morning for breakfast and drinks Coca Cola all day.

So there's that.

[Rosewater Foundation]

4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

These are the burning questions for sure. I'm trying to strike a balance. No doom intended, but if I live to see 80 I will piss myself laughing.

[Ibian]

4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

Set a goal in life, figure out how much money you need to do it, and stick to the plan.

[Ibian]

4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

Warren Buffett is worth $87B. But he's also an 87 year old man that lives in the same house he bought for $32K and eats McDonald's every morning for breakfast and drinks Coca Cola all day.

So there's that.

Sounds like a failed life to me, if that's all you end up with. Money is a means to an end, not an end in itself. What does he do with his life?

[Rosewater Foundation]

He pisses himself laughing.

[HairyMaclairy]

We know Loaded had 40k BTC in early 2017.  Let’s assume he still has them.

For Loaded to have the same wealth as Warren Buffet, puts Bitcoin at $2 million each.  

Are there bigger whales than Loaded?  I dunno.  You guys probably know. 

[bitserve]

We know Loaded had 40k BTC in early 2017.  Let’s assume he still has them.

For Loaded to have the same wealth as Warren Buffet, puts Bitcoin at $2 million each. 

That is assuming Warren Buffet does not increase his wealth in the meantime and Loaded doesn't sell some on the way up. Oh, and also assuming Berkshire Hataway doesn't invest in crypto.

Most of Warren Buffet wealth is absolutely not FIAT so inflation benefits both.

Anyway.... How many people here do REALLY believe BTC will reach $1Mill in less than 10 years from now? That's a poll I would like to see.

[bitserve]

Are there bigger whales than Loaded?  I dunno.  You guys probably know.  

Yes... Suspected ones are the Winklevi, Barry Silbert, maybe even Ver (although I don't think so), maybe Josh Jones of Bitcoinbuilder, whomever is really behind Bitmain (probably not WU himself), etc....

Loaded could in fact be one of the above guys... who knows.

And if we look only at marketcap and also other coins, there's people like the Ripple guy, the other ripple+stellar guy (Jed McCaleb), etc...

[HairyMaclairy]

Are there any good analysis of how much BTC Bitmain holds?