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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.5%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.4%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.8%)
H2 2020 - 28 (18.2%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.8%)
H2 2021 - 31 (20.1%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.9%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.7%)
Total Voters: 154

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21290384 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
Torque
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April 29, 2018, 05:38:11 AM
Merited by mindrust (2)

Money or time.

Hold $250 through 4 halvenings and see how you go with that.  

Assuming a 10x per halvening, that’s $2.5 million

Bitcoin at $95M/btc in 16 years? HIGHLY doubtful. Can I smoke what your smoking?  Cheesy

Why not? Bitcoin can only be stopped  when it absorbs every paper money out there and the amount of papers out there is infinite as long as they keep printing.

They can stop bitcoin's growth only when they stop printing money. As long as they keep printing, some of it will always flow into btc no matter what.

In terms of price growth, I'm more apt to believe a trajectory based on logarithmic regression and Metcalfes' Law where the price growth slows down over time:



So in 16 years, we'd be lucky to be at a few mil. Maybe ~$10M if we're really lucky.
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HairyMaclairy
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April 29, 2018, 05:44:19 AM

Where does your Metcalfe's law chart put Bitcoin in 2036 after 4 halvenings + 2 years to shake out?
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April 29, 2018, 05:45:22 AM

HairyMaclairy
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April 29, 2018, 05:46:41 AM

Berkshire Hathaway is a shitcoin. 
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April 29, 2018, 05:49:59 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?
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April 29, 2018, 05:50:11 AM


In terms of price growth, I'm more apt to believe a trajectory based on logarithmic regression and Metcalfes' Law where the price growth slows down over time:



So in 16 years, we'd be lucky to be at a few mil. Maybe ~$10M if we're really lucky.

That's actually not Metcalfe's law, but a modification that he does not agree with (nlogn instead of n^2)
It was made by Odlyzko and Briscoe under the title "Metcalfe's law is wrong" (sic!)
See here:
https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/

That said, who knows what the graph would show in 10 years.
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April 29, 2018, 05:58:30 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

Warren Buffett is worth $87B. But he's also an 87 year old man that lives in the same house he bought for $32K and eats McDonald's every morning for breakfast and drinks Coca Cola all day.

So there's that.
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April 29, 2018, 06:02:20 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

These are the burning questions for sure. I'm trying to strike a balance. No doom intended, but if I live to see 80 I will piss myself laughing.
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April 29, 2018, 06:02:30 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?
Set a goal in life, figure out how much money you need to do it, and stick to the plan.
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April 29, 2018, 06:03:45 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

Warren Buffett is worth $87B. But he's also an 87 year old man that lives in the same house he bought for $32K and eats McDonald's every morning for breakfast and drinks Coca Cola all day.

So there's that.
Sounds like a failed life to me, if that's all you end up with. Money is a means to an end, not an end in itself. What does he do with his life?
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April 29, 2018, 06:06:01 AM

He pisses himself laughing.
HairyMaclairy
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April 29, 2018, 06:34:35 AM

We know Loaded had 40k BTC in early 2017.  Let’s assume he still has them.

For Loaded to have the same wealth as Warren Buffet, puts Bitcoin at $2 million each.  

Are there bigger whales than Loaded?  I dunno.  You guys probably know. 
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April 29, 2018, 06:43:42 AM

We know Loaded had 40k BTC in early 2017.  Let’s assume he still has them.

For Loaded to have the same wealth as Warren Buffet, puts Bitcoin at $2 million each. 

That is assuming Warren Buffet does not increase his wealth in the meantime and Loaded doesn't sell some on the way up. Oh, and also assuming Berkshire Hataway doesn't invest in crypto.

Most of Warren Buffet wealth is absolutely not FIAT so inflation benefits both.

Anyway.... How many people here do REALLY believe BTC will reach $1Mill in less than 10 years from now? That's a poll I would like to see.
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April 29, 2018, 06:47:09 AM

Are there bigger whales than Loaded?  I dunno.  You guys probably know.  

Yes... Suspected ones are the Winklevi, Barry Silbert, maybe even Ver (although I don't think so), maybe Josh Jones of Bitcoinbuilder, whomever is really behind Bitmain (probably not WU himself), etc....

Loaded could in fact be one of the above guys... who knows.

And if we look only at marketcap and also other coins, there's people like the Ripple guy, the other ripple+stellar guy (Jed McCaleb), etc...
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April 29, 2018, 06:55:13 AM

Are there any good analysis of how much BTC Bitmain holds?
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April 29, 2018, 06:58:01 AM

Are there any good analysis of how much BTC Bitmain holds?

Not that I know of. We don't even know who is REALLY behind it. We will probably never know.
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April 29, 2018, 07:15:53 AM

Some rich Chinese guy who is high up in the Communist Party like all senior businessmen. The name probably isn’t important.
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April 29, 2018, 07:20:00 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

These are the burning questions for sure. I'm trying to strike a balance. No doom intended, but if I live to see 80 I will piss myself laughing.

And maybe you won't even notice.
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April 29, 2018, 07:30:23 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Set a goal in life, figure out how much money you need to do it, and stick to the plan.

When bitcoin breaks 10k again I'm moving to Thailand to become a full-time monger.
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April 29, 2018, 07:55:44 AM


4. Sometimes I wonder if enjoying life more at the moment beats having more money later. For once, if you eventually get to a decrepitude stage with $100 mil worth of btc (say, in a few decades), then I have to ask: The f-k you are going to do with it?

I have been thinking a lot about this.

Do I want to be a filthy rich octogenarian with failing health, or a reasonably well off middle aged guy with energy for projects?

Warren Buffett is worth $87B. But he's also an 87 year old man that lives in the same house he bought for $32K and eats McDonald's every morning for breakfast and drinks Coca Cola all day.

So there's that.

... buffet drinks coke all day to get the taste of bankster dick out of his mouth, so there's that.
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