Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Checkmate bulls, downcrash confirmed.

You are Jean Michel Jarre and I claim my five pounds

[Tyson95]

Feels good to sit 100% fiat until the sleeping dragon awakes. I'm guessing selling should resume in about 3 hours.

What if they buy?

[Holliday]

There is an overstock of coins right now.

It's going to be interesting to find out if overstock are able to hedge against the volatility.
If they are able to, then maybe there's hope for a larger adoption of bitcoin.
If not, and they end up with a significant loss, instead of the small gains they expected, the signal will be bearish.

You are aware they are selling their coins, right?

Is the selling instant? Don't they have to transfer the coins, and get the desired price, which may take some time?
In the meantime, during a sell-off, the price could drop 10% and they would end up with a 10% fiat loss.

It's all done by the payment processor. Overstock gets (in fiat) exactly what they would get if they sold the item for fiat.

Edit: Actually they get slightly more thanks to reduced fees of the Bitcoin payment processor.

[aminorex]

This "capitulation" has got absolutely no conviction.

We are nowhere near capitulation.

Nor is capitulation necessarily in the cards.  We've seen a variety of these blow-offs in the past, and many lack a meaningful capitulation.

A meaningful capitulation requires that the participating funds should despair.  But despair usually requires a degree of certainty or a wearisome, prolonged level of grinding fear that may be unavailable in this cycle.  After all, the rise was put on with all the punditry railing against the bubble.  The longer we spend at this level, the more absurd the bubble talk becomes.  Speculators on the intraday frames will perhaps feel some despair, but those trading on daily, weekly, monthly scales have little reason to capitulate.  Almost all of them are up 100, 200, 400%, 800%.  Push the price down below 400 and you may see some serious capitulation blowing out.  If that doesn't happen, I don't think there will be a dramatic bottom, just a long slow jam until the on-ramps get all knickered again and we do the gravity slingshot thing to mars.

[Tzupy]

This "capitulation" has got absolutely no conviction.

We are nowhere near capitulation.

Give us a rough time then

This perspective is not largely based on time. No estimate within reasonable accuracy.

Well then how can you say we are nowhere near?

By interpreting the charts. When the time will come for the last sub-wave of wave C I'll sure post about it.
It could be 2 - 3 months from now, or 4 - 6 months, depending on the amplitude of the drops and trade volume.

[T.Stuart]

Feels good to sit 100% fiat until the sleeping dragon awakes. I'm guessing selling should resume in about 3 hours.

What if they buy?

+1 I really don't think people have been thinking enough about the pressure on the Chinese to BUY. Imagine if suddenly you realised you might have more difficulty in getting money to your exchange in the near future, and that this might only become more and more difficult? What would you do?

[Holliday]

Feels good to sit 100% fiat until the sleeping dragon awakes. I'm guessing selling should resume in about 3 hours.

What if they buy?

+1 I really don't think people have been thinking enough about the pressure on the Chinese to BUY. Imagine if suddenly you realised you might have more difficulty in getting money to your exchange in the near future, and that this might only become more and more difficult? What would you do?

Whatever your masters tell you to do!

[aminorex]

By interpreting the charts. When the time will come for the last sub-wave of wave C I'll sure post about it.
It could be 2 - 3 months from now, or 4 - 6 months, depending on the amplitude of the drops and trade volume.

2-3 months from now the logarithmic baseline will put the bottom of wave C higher than...a really high thing.

[fotosonics]

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/17/lawyer-for-winkelvoss-twins-bitcoin-etf-says-sec-review-going-smoothly/

When this happens...

[T.Stuart]

Feels good to sit 100% fiat until the sleeping dragon awakes. I'm guessing selling should resume in about 3 hours.

What if they buy?

+1 I really don't think people have been thinking enough about the pressure on the Chinese to BUY. Imagine if suddenly you realised you might have more difficulty in getting money to your exchange in the near future, and that this might only become more and more difficult? What would you do?

Whatever your masters tell you to do!

They are telling you that Bitcoin is not currency and should not be used to buy goods!

[Holliday]

Feels good to sit 100% fiat until the sleeping dragon awakes. I'm guessing selling should resume in about 3 hours.

What if they buy?

+1 I really don't think people have been thinking enough about the pressure on the Chinese to BUY. Imagine if suddenly you realised you might have more difficulty in getting money to your exchange in the near future, and that this might only become more and more difficult? What would you do?

Whatever your masters tell you to do!

They are telling you that Bitcoin is not currency and should not be used to buy goods!

Well... they obviously know best!

[T.Stuart]

Feels good to sit 100% fiat until the sleeping dragon awakes. I'm guessing selling should resume in about 3 hours.

What if they buy?

+1 I really don't think people have been thinking enough about the pressure on the Chinese to BUY. Imagine if suddenly you realised you might have more difficulty in getting money to your exchange in the near future, and that this might only become more and more difficult? What would you do?

Whatever your masters tell you to do!

They are telling you that Bitcoin is not currency and should not be used to buy goods!

Well... they obviously know best!

Yeah, but while they are telling you this you are thinking that it's as if you were both speaking a totally different language!

[flynn]

double bottom?  

Go ahead, we need those double bottom gifs now ...

[MAbtc]

This "capitulation" has got absolutely no conviction.

We are nowhere near capitulation.

Give us a rough time then

This perspective is not largely based on time. No estimate within reasonable accuracy.

Well then how can you say we are nowhere near?

You are looking at this from the perspective of Point A->Point B = time. Capitulation implies a magnitude of price drop. Point A->Point B (and C,D,E,F,etc) can also be looked at as price movement.

[MAbtc]

This "capitulation" has got absolutely no conviction.

We are nowhere near capitulation.

Nor is capitulation necessarily in the cards.  

I agree. I was going to edit my original post to include a similar condition, but you guys are moving too fast for me today.   Perhaps I should have said "this is not capitulation."

[humanitee]

You are Jean Michel Jarre and I claim my five pounds

Hahaha! Awesome! 

[kurious]

A couple of corrective points:

1. Overstock.  
They transfer into fiat immediately - probably don't even handle the BTC at all.   So this has little market effect if any.
Also - they took, what 130,000 USD ish on the first day, because of all the hype.  A fair percentage of that was Goat.   I doubt this has continued into anything remotely significant to the overall BTC market yet. This is not relevant to the market price at the moment at all.

2. British VAT.
IMO, this will not be applied to coins, but to exchange fees.   It will not be significant - if applied to coins, no one would trade in the UK at all, which is not HMRC's intention at all.  This has been misinterpreted negatively here.

3. Fed selling SR stash.
As I said before, this will be a private auction at below market price, probably in tranches. It will likely go to large investment companies, who will only have an interest in a HIGHER price if they are successful bidders.  If they dump, they will lose out, they will be in for investment reasons for the mid-term at least.

So - please can we all think properly and carefully about interpretation of news?



(EDITED for punctuation)

[alexeft]

double bottom?  

Go ahead, we need those double bottom gifs now ...

There ya go!!!

[alexeft]

2. British VAT.
IMO, this will not be applied to coins, but to exchange fees.   It will not be significant - if applied to coins.  No one would trade in the UK at all, which is not HMRC's intention at all.  This has been misinterpreted negatively here.

Good point!!! Thanks!!!

[JorgeStolfi]

http://www.pfhub.com/bitcoin-violates-numerous-laws-according-to-indonesia-central-bank-303/

Who cares!

The 247 million indonesians probably care.