Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MatTheCat]

Volume on Tue Jan/21 UTC was quite a bit lower than on Mon Jan/20 at most exchanges, especially on Huobi (41 kBTC against 72).  China's share srunk a bit but is still ~71%.

Today (Wed Jan/21) the volume at Huobi between 09:00 and 10:00 local time was quite a bit lower then usual, it looks like a Sunday.  Is that because of the Chinese New Year holidays?


               !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed
               !  01/15 !  01/16 !  01/17 !  01/18 !  01/19 !  01/20 !  01/21 !  01/22
Day total      |  91.40 |  67.37 |  74.21 |  43.60 |  67.27 |  71.78 |  40.55 |   ??
09:00-09:59    |   1.61 |   1.29 |   3.22 |   2.59 |   0.48 |   4.69 |   1.28 |   0.63

Volume is down on all markets cos whale's bots are holding up price and trying to trigger a suckers rally, but nobody is buying it so volume is low, very low. Highest USD volume happens to be on everyone's favourite cashing out exchange, Bitstamp.

[TERA]

What is going on at gox? Is gox trying to lead a rally by itself? Or is this the usual trapped fiat eruption?

[MatTheCat]

What is going on at gox? Is gox trying to lead a rally by itself? Or is this the usual trapped fiat eruption?

Whatever is going on, it is showing up Gox's USD IOUs to be totally worthless.

Not good PR for them at all!

[shmadz]

What is going on at gox? Is gox trying to lead a rally by itself? Or is this the usual trapped fiat eruption?

Whatever is going on, it is showing up Gox's USD IOUs to be totally worthless.

Not good PR for them at all!

After GOX pops, how bad do you think it will get as all the exchanges start to capitulate at once? you think we might see 500 again?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

What is going on at gox? Is gox trying to lead a rally by itself? Or is this the usual trapped fiat eruption?

Whatever is going on, it is showing up Gox's USD IOUs to be totally worthless.

Not good PR for them at all!

After GOX pops, how bad do you think it will get as all the exchanges start to capitulate at once? you think we might see 500 again?

[Tinfoil hat on]The ridiculous trading behaviour over at Gox right now let´s me think that there isn´t much time left before it pops, Maybe soon we will see people payin 200-300% the price of Stamp.[/Tinfoil hat on]

Of course problems with BTC withdrawls are going to increase by then... lololol There´s no way out

[MatTheCat]

After GOX pops, how bad do you think it will get as all the exchanges start to capitulate at once? you think we might see 500 again?

Exchanges capitulate!?

I was rather hoping that the exchanges that I have money in are well run, solvent, and aren't leveraged out of their tits on long-bitcoin, cos if they are, it dont matter what side of the trade everyone is on, everyone is fucked.

If I thought for a minute that Gox going down would mean the rest of the exchanges followed like some counter party risk bank run, then I wouldn't be touching Bitcoin with a 10ft long shitty bargepole. If I thought that the exchanges' accounts were heavily leveraged long Bitcoin, then I would also be out. No short sell, no sub $300 buy in tranches, nothing.

As for what I actually think will happen, obsessive hours staring at charts and day trading combined with common sense, tells me that Bitcoin is in for a gradual grind down, but I have a feeling in my gut that the Bitcoin economy is in for a bit of a system shock.

[JorgeStolfi]

This plot shows a samples of the transaction logs from MtGOX and Bitstamp, around 2014-01-22 01:00 UTC:



The data was obtained from Bitcoinwisdom's charts by cut-and-paste and an ad-hoc reformatting script.  Beware of errors.

Note that MtGOX prices were scaled down to bring them closer to the Bitstamp prices.

Each dot is a trnsaction; the dot's area is proportional to the volume (except for the smallest transactions, which are shown with a fixed dot size).

It seems that the significant transactions at MtGOX always occur at the upper end of the spread, while the reverse is generally true for Bitstamp.  Does that mean something?

[fonzie]

So the worst thing happening at the end of January is not the China thing , it´s good old Gox smashin the market again.





kthxbuybuy

[MatTheCat]

It seems that the significant transactions at MtGOX always occur at the upper end of the spread, while the reverse is generally true for Bitstamp.  Does that mean something?

Desperation?

Bitstamp volume consists of lots of real traders/investors and Gox is mostly vacuous bullshit.

Lots of 'analysts' have been predicting new bull run phase based on ´Gox's break out' (idiots). Once upon a time, a Gox break out would send the whole of Bitcoin land crazy, but obviously these days are long past. Perhaps what is intended as a manipulated rally  (I consider vast majority of Gox volume to be bots playing pass the parcel) in order to preserve some whales wealth (or even save their skin) will in the final analysis be come to be viewed as Gox going Supernova and imploding on its self?

If someone wants to offer me a theory as to why Gox going down the tubes would take all the other exchanges with it I would be glad to hear it. I don't see why this would happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it wouldn't.

[shmadz]

Sorry I ain't been obzervin tha wallz, but more news from canada

http://www.sherwoodparknews.com/2014/01/16/cryptocurrency-comes-to-park

looks like a lot of people want to sell you bitcoins right now... I wonder why?

on the other hand, Canada has been pretty accepting to this point, so far...

I do not expect any legislation in Canada regarding bitcoin until after the next election. It might even be the "hot-button topic" of the election...

Can you imagine an election where you actually thought that your vote made a difference?

Man, that would be cool.

[TERA]

wow much discrepancy.

[billyjoeallen]

What is going on at gox? Is gox trying to lead a rally by itself? Or is this the usual trapped fiat eruption?

Whatever is going on, it is showing up Gox's USD IOUs to be totally worthless.

Not good PR for them at all!

After GOX pops, how bad do you think it will get as all the exchanges start to capitulate at once? you think we might see 500 again?

May not happen at all. I think it is being priced in already. Price may actually go up with a resolution to this fiasco.

[JorgeStolfi]

If someone wants to offer me a theory as to why Gox going down the tubes would take all the other exchanges with it I would be glad to hear it. I don't see why this would happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it wouldn't.

Well, it seems that most people out there have not heard of the complaints about MtGOX, and still think of it as "the" Bitcoin exchange. A collapse would be featured on TV and newspapers, and probably scare some investors away.

By the way, MtGOX must be very attractive for the newbies who have BTC to sell and are looking for the best price, but do not know of its withdrawal problems.  The Bitcoin community should put pressure on MtGOX to clearly and truthfully warn its clients of the withdrawal delays, and/or spread the word around.

[fonzie]

It seems that the significant transactions at MtGOX always occur at the upper end of the spread, while the reverse is generally true for Bitstamp.  Does that mean something?

Desperation?

Bitstamp volume consists of lots of real traders/investors and Gox is mostly vacuous bullshit.

Lots of 'analysts' have been predicting new bull run phase based on ´Gox's break out' (idiots). Once upon a time, a Gox break out would send the whole of Bitcoin land crazy, but obviously these days are long past. Perhaps what is intended as a manipulated rally  (I consider vast majority of Gox volume to be bots playing pass the parcel) in order to preserve some whales wealth (or even save their skin) will in the final analysis be come to be viewed as Gox going Supernova and imploding on its self?

If someone wants to offer me a theory as to why Gox going down the tubes would take all the other exchanges with it I would be glad to hear it. I don't see why this would happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it wouldn't.

People would be scared as fuck, tryin to get their money out of the remaining exchanges as long as they provide a withdrawl service, which is already happenin on Stamp as it seems.

[byronbb]

LOL flight from alts to MEME-COINS (ie doge) is hilarious. PPC is in a death spiral.

[virtualfaqs]

*psst* Willy, you there? 

[mestar]

Willy is dead.

[windjc]

If someone wants to offer me a theory as to why Gox going down the tubes would take all the other exchanges with it I would be glad to hear it. I don't see why this would happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it wouldn't.

Well, it seems that most people out there have not heard of the complaints about MtGOX, and still think of it as "the" Bitcoin exchange. A collapse would be featured on TV and newspapers, and probably scare some investors away.

By the way, MtGOX must be very attractive for the newbies who have BTC to sell and are looking for the best price, but do not know of its withdrawal problems.  The Bitcoin community should put pressure on MtGOX to clearly and truthfully warn its clients of the withdrawal delays, and/or spread the word around.

MtGox going down was speed up US exchanges currently in the works. There are several going through the licensing process and if Gox failed, I would venture to guess that the rush to be the first one to capitalize on this perceived gap in market share would cause an exchange to open faster than otherwise.

This entire exchange thing is going to be fixed soon. Big money is coming into exchanges with full license and compliance covered. They will have all the bells and whistles and a new day in trading with begin.

[fonzie]

LOL flight from alts to MEME-COINS (ie doge) is hilarious. PPC is in a death spiral.

Alts showed the first big signs for the last big rise in early Januar even before BTC, maybe this can be considered as a warning sign for the upcoming BTC dump.