Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bitcoinaire]

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

I don't see a long, lull in the market either. Prices are very low already and why should we be so lucky to accumulate cheap coins for 12+ months? Call me crazy, but I see the possibility for a double bubble still occurring in 2019.

[VB1001]

Who Is Buying Crypto Right Now?



https://coinninja.com/news/who-is-buying-crypto-right-now/

I think everyone is filling the bags.

[toknormal]

Here's some light "Bitcoin contrarian" relief from the sweat of the current "rally"

https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2018/10/05/answers-from-the-author-for-winifred-posters-virtual-currency-course/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/9we6ws/bitcoin_criticism_attack_of_the_50_foot/

[Wekkel]

... a double bubble ... occurring in 2019.

Perhaps ‘The Bubble’.....

Greatest wealth transfer ever.

[pönde]

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

I don't see a long, lull in the market either. Prices are very low already and why should we be so lucky to accumulate cheap coins for 12+ months? Call me crazy, but I see the possibility for a double bubble still occurring in 2019.

You mean first bubble is 6k$ and second 40k$?

[bitserve]

Who Is Buying Crypto Right Now?



https://coinninja.com/news/who-is-buying-crypto-right-now/

I think everyone is filling the bags.

I hate graphs that cut most of the bars to make the increase look much more impressive than it really is.

Still good increase (15-20% since January)....

[bitserve]

I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything barely useful or profitable already?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything useful or profitable already?

I wouldn't be so sure about that. It would probably at least be much more cut throat though, as most people should've realized that buzzword filled toilet whitepaper doesn't mean shit. That could also imply more absurd gains for those that do make the cut, with even steeper losses for full blown trash.

[Biodom]

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

Yeah, I also call it a "reverse shoe-shine boy".
Bear market is probably finished when least likely participant is calling for it's continuation.
Case in point: marketwatch inverviewing a 13-year old "bear cub".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-pretty-much-dead-says-teenage-crypto-phenom-2018-12-14

[Biodom]

I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything useful or profitable already?

I wouldn't be so sure about that. It would probably at least be much more cut throat though, as most people should've realized that buzzword filled toilet whitepaper doesn't mean shit. That could also imply more absurd gains for those that do make the cut, with even steeper losses for full blown trash.

I intend to watch the newcomers closely.
In a bull market some will do very well. Hopefully, not EOS.
The point is to absorb the gains obtained in those into more btc (before they crash).

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything barely useful or profitable already?

Double post due to edit:

Most ICOs have been profitable if you even partially dumped the pumps.

Profitable products? Don't think so, but keep in mind that startups generally take a few years to generate profit (if they survive). Edit: There's at least one hedge fund that outperformed the market on the way up and down (bigger gains, lower losses). Went from ~3m to ~6m and now sitting at ~4m. Started late 2017.

There are a some ICOs that look promising if you care about profits, although they're technically not aligned with the vision of Bitcoin, but rather mass adoption of crypto in general.

Then some that could work out with decent ideas, but ultra high risk due to marketing and adoption and the imminent threat of bankruptcy due to bear market.

I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything useful or profitable already?

I wouldn't be so sure about that. It would probably at least be much more cut throat though, as most people should've realized that buzzword filled toilet whitepaper doesn't mean shit. That could also imply more absurd gains for those that do make the cut, with even steeper losses for full blown trash.

I intend to watch the newcomers closely.
In a bull market some will do very well. Hopefully, not EOS.
The point is to absorb the gains obtained in those into more btc (before they crash).

That's been my game for a while now. Variable 10-40% in alts (depending on how hard they moon and how fast I dump) and skimming profits over to the BTC trading and BTC long stashes. Very pleased with the results and the on-going thrill despite bear markets.

[VB1001]

Who Is Buying Crypto Right Now?



https://coinninja.com/news/who-is-buying-crypto-right-now/

I think everyone is filling the bags.

I hate graphs that cut most of the bars to make the increase look much more impressive than it really is.

Still good increase (15-20% since January)....

This is better.

[Hueristic]

https://twitter.com/rothschild_jen/status/1073863980483932160

I would dispute his take on the fungibility of bitcoin, and certain "cryptos".

Yeah, there is a shitload wrong with that chart but he is using all non-specific terms anyway. For a real understanding all of those must be "in relation to" with a defined metric. Gold being Moderately portable is actually laughable in comparison to BTC but not in comparison to fiat where you can only get your hands on small denomination bills which he has as high which is again laughable.

[Biodom]

Observation: While we have established there does not appear to be any discernible price correlation, between mempool size and BTC price, I did notice that the mempool has dramatically inflated over the last two hours.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h

Wormsign.

indeed...12-14 sat/byte to get "in" within 3 hr, >=33 sat/byte within 1 block.
Could be a temporary situation, though.
BTW, network hashing is increasing now, albeit difficulty adjustment would still be down by ~8-9% in a few hours.

[gentlemand]

indeed...12-14 sat/byte to get "in" within 3 hr, >=33 sat/byte within 1 block.
Could be a temporary situation, though.

Has anyone charted the correlation if there is one?

I find it hard to believe volume dumpers would wait an hour or more to get on an exchange.

[Biodom]

indeed...12-14 sat/byte to get "in" within 3 hr, >=33 sat/byte within 1 block.
Could be a temporary situation, though.

Has anyone charted the correlation if there is one?

I find it hard to believe volume dumpers would wait an hour or more to get on an exchange.

of course they won't wait, it just shows increased activity/competition for the blockspace.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

A few of my friends, who were watching from the sidelines for the past years, have started showing real interest in the past few weeks (following the dump from 6k). And I mostly run around nerd circles, so perhaps this 'delayed' increase in activity could be a sign of fresh casual blood FOMOing in?

Alternatively Craig & Co trying their playbook again.

[cybersofts]

Hi old-timers, it appears there is a new bull in the market.  
am I the only one seeing this or this is just the last pump of the year 2018?

[yefi]

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

40% of the contestants in Mic's BAAKT game are choosing $6000 or above by February, so there's perhaps more optimism out there than you'd think.

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

40% of the contestants in Mic's BAAKT game are choosing $6000 or above by February, so there's perhaps more optimism out there than you'd think.

Except they might also be betting that BAAKT won't happpen by February.
They are for sure still bullish on 2019 though.