Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rolling]

Former IMF Economist Finally Closes Year-Old Bitcoin Short

https://www.ccn.com/the-big-short-former-imf-economist-finally-closes-year-old-bitcoin-short/
https://twitter.com/mark_dow/status/1075034409495982081

"I’m done. I don’t want to try to ride this thing to zero. I don’t want to try to squeeze more out of the lemon. I don’t want to think about it. It seemed like the right time."

[Majormax]

.....and the sucker's rally begins

Yes, bitcoin's price has a habit of filling gaps and this seems no different. It would not indicate a V-bottom reversal to me unless it cracked above the descending triangle's floor at ~5700.

That would be a strong indication, but time is a more important variable than price IMO.

The low will only be confirmed to be in the rear-view mirror when price has held at least 50 % above the low point (lets say that is around $5k) for several months.
That point will be the safest area to buy .

It is risky to anticipate it, because a subsequent drop to a new low can wipe out a lot of capital .

The % rise from a lower low would more often give a greater profit than the missed potential of waiting for confirmation.

Drip-feeding in would mitigate the effect, of course.

[goldkingcoiner]

As I see it, in the next hours either we pass 3732 and hit the 3835 ceiling. OR we dip to 3594-3565

[Majormax]

Aren't you worried about how long you will live?

If you're a purple bloated leaking gasbag with millipedes crawling out your eye sockets then you tend not to worry about such things any more.

Anyway I remember you offering Rpietlia some health advice once upon a time and look what happened to him.

I think Rpietlia didn't need physical health advice. His reactions to events just seemed to follow a bipolar schedule.

[HairyMaclairy]

Yes the real challenge is breaking the yellow bear line which is currently sitting around 5K

[goldkingcoiner]

Yes the real challenge is breaking the yellow bear line

Seems very doable by january

[HairyMaclairy]

We didn’t break it until October 2015 (equivalent of October 2019) last time around.  Breaking it marked the very start of what became the 2017 bull market.  


The current bear line will be at $1,500 in October 2019 which is a reason for us to still be very careful and not get too excited in December 2018.  

Of course breaking it early (January 2019) would be very bullish.  

[goldkingcoiner]

Certainly dumping back to 1-2k would set bitcoin back for a year... But I think there would have to be huge fud to trigger such an event. Bear whales have got to be exhausted at this point...

[rolling]

We didn’t break it until October 2015 (equivalent of October 2019) last time around.  Breaking it marked the very start of the bull market. 

I'm having a hard time believing the next bull run is going to follow the 2015-2017 cycle. The shorters and panic sellers did a good job of painting the charts to match the last draw down (human nature to find repeating patterns) but I don't think they're going to have as much control over the next rise. The dynamics are different now. When people see the price rise, they're going to think it's 2017 again, not 2015.

If the shorters think this will be the same as 2015, there's a good chance they give their BTC profits back and further fuel the price on the way up.

[HairyMaclairy]

Degens

[bitserve]

This is getting interesting...

[JayJuanGee]

Aren't you worried about how long you will live?

If you're a purple bloated leaking gasbag with millipedes crawling out your eye sockets then you tend not to worry about such things any more.

Anyway I remember you offering Rpietlia some health advice once upon a time and look what happened to him.

I think Rpietlia didn't need physical health advice. His reactions to events just seemed to follow a bipolar schedule.

If you ever saw pictures of him, it was not a pretty sight.  Looked pale and like a kind of skinny/fat.... like he had never worked out a day in his life, and also, he said that he was smoking cigars.  Did not seem like a energy production combination, which could even contribute to the seeming pickled vegetative state of his brain - the likely chemical imbalances.

[JayJuanGee]

We didn’t break it until October 2015 (equivalent of October 2019) last time around.  Breaking it marked the very start of the bull market. 

I'm having a hard time believing the next bull run is going to follow the 2015-2017 cycle. The shorters and panic sellers did a good job of painting the charts to match the last draw down (human nature to find repeating patterns) but I don't think they're going to have as much control over the next rise. The dynamics are different now. When people see the price rise, they're going to think it's 2017 again, not 2015.

If the shorters think this will be the same as 2015, there's a good chance they give their BTC profits back and further fuel the price on the way up.

So you are suggesting that the next rise is going to be more exponential rather than gradual... so we are going to enter into a quick upturn that goes past ATH in 3-6 months rather than in 1-2 years?

At this point, it seems that either scenario could play out, and we cannot really call which of the scenarios would be more likely ahead of time, especially at our current price point, where we are possibly only in the beginning of such upwards price move (assuming that we are going up from here, which is a decently-sized assumption in and of itself). 

[jojo69]

don't get your hopes up too far Bob

I mean, I know you're a big boy and all...but the pain man

[d_eddie]

We didn’t break it until October 2015 (equivalent of October 2019) last time around.  Breaking it marked the very start of the bull market. 

I'm having a hard time believing the next bull run is going to follow the 2015-2017 cycle. The shorters and panic sellers did a good job of painting the charts to match the last draw down (human nature to find repeating patterns) but I don't think they're going to have as much control over the next rise. The dynamics are different now. When people see the price rise, they're going to think it's 2017 again, not 2015.

I also think the next bull run is going to be different, but in the opposite way. Too many old schoolers have been blind enough not to cash out at or near the last ATH. I think those guys will sell a pretty chunk between 10k and 20k, so a tentative parabolic rise could well stop short of breaking through the roof.

[gentlemand]

I also think the next bull run is going to be different, but in the opposite way. Too many old schoolers have been blind enough not to cash out at or near the last ATH. I think those guys will sell a pretty chunk between 10k and 20k, so a tentative parabolic rise could well stop short of breaking through the roof.

They said the exact same thing about the return to the $1000 level. Look what happened there.

[bitserve]

But this time is different!

[rolling]

We didn’t break it until October 2015 (equivalent of October 2019) last time around.  Breaking it marked the very start of the bull market. 

I'm having a hard time believing the next bull run is going to follow the 2015-2017 cycle. The shorters and panic sellers did a good job of painting the charts to match the last draw down (human nature to find repeating patterns) but I don't think they're going to have as much control over the next rise. The dynamics are different now. When people see the price rise, they're going to think it's 2017 again, not 2015.

I also think the next bull run is going to be different, but in the opposite way. Too many old schoolers have been blind enough not to cash out at or near the last ATH. I think those guys will sell a pretty chunk between 10k and 20k, so a tentative parabolic rise could well stop short of breaking through the roof.

Really anything is possible but $100k is my target to sell a little bit and I have held that view since 2013. I think there are a lot more like me out there. $15k-$20k will free up some coins for sure but not as many as you might think.

[JayJuanGee]

We didn’t break it until October 2015 (equivalent of October 2019) last time around.  Breaking it marked the very start of the bull market.  

I'm having a hard time believing the next bull run is going to follow the 2015-2017 cycle. The shorters and panic sellers did a good job of painting the charts to match the last draw down (human nature to find repeating patterns) but I don't think they're going to have as much control over the next rise. The dynamics are different now. When people see the price rise, they're going to think it's 2017 again, not 2015.

I also think the next bull run is going to be different, but in the opposite way. Too many old schoolers have been blind enough not to cash out at or near the last ATH. I think those guys will sell a pretty chunk between 10k and 20k, so a tentative parabolic rise could well stop short of breaking through the roof.

The same is said, every time.

You are not saying anything new.

There are a lot of threads on this forum in which a bunch of peeps are asserting that they would sell before $1k or $2k.. .blah blah blah.. but when push comes to shove, the supposed selling ["this time"] does not make any kind of significant difference.

Edit:
O.k.... I got beaten to this... (gentlemand/bitserve) but, so what, I am going to let my phraseology stand.

[jojo69]

oh boy