Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KeyserSoze]

That' why everybody should come here only full of beer.

Oh... you said full of beer. I misheard you.

[dreamspark]

Could you elaborate what you mean precisely? What I understand as arbitrage is buying at one place to sell at the other to pocket the difference. Do you just mean that people will send increased amounts of money to Bitstamp if they see the price lower than elsewhere?

The situation maybe that people, particularly speculators who are in it for fiat profit will send their coins straight to stap from gox to realise a 100% profit fairly easily. If you have fiat you can still send it to gox so there is a good chance there are people with a fair bit of money that have sent money to gox literally taking the risk they will start withdrawals and they can dump asap on stamp.

I think the transaction sizes on the blockchain will show how many coins are moving after gox allows btc withdrawals albeit some, no one can know how much, will be moving to personal storage off gox but not onto another exchange.

EDIT: Sepa withdrawals from Stamp are speedy in my experience as well. Plus the general excess of coins is sure to lower the price on the other exchanges.

[niothor]

That' why everybody should come here only full of beer.

<image here>
Oh... you said full of beer. I misheard you.

You misheard me , but you still followed my advice ))). That ain't a pic a sober guy would post.

[Arcas]

Could you elaborate what you mean precisely? What I understand as arbitrage is buying at one place to sell at the other to pocket the difference. Do you just mean that people will send increased amounts of money to Bitstamp if they see the price lower than elsewhere?

The situation maybe that people, particularly speculators who are in it for fiat profit will send their coins straight to stap from gox to realise a 100% profit fairly easily. If you have fiat you can still send it to gox so there is a good chance there are people with a fair bit of money that have sent money to gox literally taking the risk they will start withdrawals and they can dump asap on stamp.

I think the transaction sizes on the blockchain will show how many coins are moving after gox allows btc withdrawals albeit some, no one can know how much, will be moving to personal storage off gox but not onto another exchange.

EDIT: Sepa withdrawals from Stamp are speedy in my experience as well. Plus the general excess of coins is sure to lower the price on the other exchanges.

My only concern is that a large flood of withdrawls could drain every exchange of liquidity.

That could be very scary.

[Teppino]

Once withdrawn from Gox there should be no need to dump elsewhere as you already profited from the low buy price, still i guess the fear of others blind dumping may spark a race and bring down the price.
Am i missing something?

[Arcas]

Once withdrawn from Gox there should be no need to dump elsewhere as you already profited from the low buy price, still i guess the fear of others blind dumping may spark a race and bring down the price.
Am i missing something?

You are falsely assuming that Bitcoin speculators are rational actors.

[TERA]

Once withdrawn from Gox there should be no need to dump elsewhere as you already profited from the low buy price, still i guess the fear of others blind dumping may spark a race and bring down the price.
Am i missing something?

250% profit on a trade is really good in my book. There are plenty of people who gladly close that trade or at least take profit rather than engaging in speculating on further rises. You forget that the majority of people who trade bitcoin are traders, speculators, and gamblers - not long term bulls.

[niothor]

Once withdrawn from Gox there should be no need to dump elsewhere as you already profited from the low buy price, still i guess the fear of others blind dumping may spark a race and bring down the price.
Am i missing something?

You assume that no dump is happening after you get your coins out of mtgox.
You bough at 300 , but if you sell at 600 on bitstamp the first and some sheep follow you , you might get to buy again at 300 again x2 profit

[dreamspark]

Once withdrawn from Gox there should be no need to dump elsewhere as you already profited from the low buy price, still i guess the fear of others blind dumping may spark a race and bring down the price.
Am i missing something?

Only if your a believer/hodler. Like I said if your in it for the fiat profits then every smart investor in the world would realise a 100% profit.

The other thing is also that a lot of coins will be heading to exchanges. There will be people who have sent money to stamp in anticipation of lower prices but will that be enough to liquify the potential influx of coins?

EDIT: plus there will be alot of people who have lost faith and will simply want to get out of bitcoin. I hope its not to bad but its rational to think about these things.

[TERA]

think about why these people left coins/funds on mtgox to begin with. it was for trading. not long term investing.

[niothor]

False cho choo as it seems. Wonder why all the exchangers reacted...
I guess we won't see any real movement before some news from mtgox staff.

[Arcas]

Does it bother anyone else that MtGox used the wrong "effected" in their press release?

[CryptStorm]

Does it bother anyone else that MtGox used the wrong "effected" in their press release?

I missed that-- yes, bothered, and a bit sad.

Edit: Title reads: "Maintenance Announcement Effecting Bitcoin transfers![sic]"

[medialab101]

Does it bother anyone else that MtGox used the wrong "effected" in their press release?

They are French, so they have a lot of... affectations

[dreamspark]

I do think though that the other exchanges will follow goxes rise for half hourish till coins end up where they are sent.

[aminorex]

Once BTC withdrawals are enabled, the price of BTC on Mt.Gox will skyrocket.  Why would you dump on stamp at 700 when you can dump on gox at 900?

[Arcas]

While we wait for the shitstorm, enjoy this oddly satisfying gif

[Arcas]

Once BTC withdrawals are enabled, the price of BTC on Mt.Gox will skyrocket.  Why would you dump on stamp at 700 when you can dump on gox at 900?

Because you can't withdraw fiat on gox.

[N12]

While we wait for the shitstorm, enjoy this oddly satisfying gif

Mesmerizing.

[jojo69]

Mesmerizing.

actually its pretty choppy with my gpus being flogged on scryptguild...lol