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+1
Holy Moly Stash management 101
Tweak it a little bit JSRAW? Something like that might work for you? Perhaps?
Yeah, it could, for sell plans everyone needs their tweaking according to their target, situations, etc. Timing of price increment in each stage is crucial, though. Unfortunately, no one can predict this scenario or downtrend, so I am not rigid with my sell stage.
Before, I start to comment, let's remember, again, that I was responding to some of the goals that mindrust had presented, including that he was planning to cash out everything at $100k, so the parameters of his thinking was different from yours, even though some variation of that same cashing out projection could still work for you, JSRAW, with some tweaking... and maybe even you would not start cashing out until after $150k or whatever is comfortable for your situation...
Let's take the next potential BTC price top, for example, even if you cannot know whether the top will be $17k, $30k, $50k, $73.659k, $500k, $1million or some other amount and you also cannot know if the BTC price is going to go shooting up all at once or if it is going to take several attempts at it, fake outs down or up or even take years and years to get there.
Part of the point of making a plan and seeing the plan on paper (or in your excel spreadsheet) is that you should be able to set some sell numbers that make you comfortable no matter what the scenario, and let the BTC price come to you.
Of course, if a decent amount of time passes, and the BTC price does not come to you, then your circumstances might change too in terms of your cash flow being better or worse. You might consider whether you should tweak or completely change your BTC sell stage plan based on your changed circumstances. Those might be degree type decisions rather than all or nothing, but sometimes circumstances could change so drastically that you pretty much have to completely abandon your previous plan(s).
Making a plan does not lock you into the plan, except to the extent that you have conviction to tell yourself that you are locked into such plan (until you decide that you are not).
If you set your sell amounts in line with your own feelings about cash to BTC balance, you should not be getting upset because you sold 10% of your BTC stash at $16,748.87 and another 10% of your stash at $29,374.37 when the BTC price shot up to a million, and when the price reached $1million you only have 5% or even less of your original stash left because you did not expect the BTC price to go shooting up so much.
Your sell plan should account for the possibility that the BTC price goes shooting up and that is the best case scenario that you could find yourself in, but at the same time, shooting straight up is an outlier in terms of likelihood, so you should not be gambling your whole BTC stash on that possibility and holding through the whole shooting up when your odds are quite likely to be wrong, but if you cash out along the way UP, even if you make less, it still ended up being the best scenario for you to have set your BTC sell orders along the way up while not taking so many risks
(psychological and financial) by holding your BTC all the way through.
So, yeah, BTC price shooting up is not a bad problem to have, and you can even see approximately how much dollars and BTC you will have at each of the various price stages, and to better be able to hypothesize at each of the stages if you are mostly comfortable with that result, and if you are not mostly comfortable, then tweak it. If you keep on tweaking, you are going to realize that there is almost no situation in which you are going to be completely comfortable, so in this regard don't let your concept of perfect become the enemy of what will be decently good results... while you still become richie under a variety of scenarios and don't be whining because you could have been 3x more richie when you had already achieved very comfortable richie status.
And I believe no one (at least me) want to be in any situation where corn hitting 500K or arguably million (or more) in next 10-15 years. And they left with less corn because as times goes by, living of cost is going to up as well simultaneously.
Well, if you have a longer timeline in terms of age or years to live, then you should be able to let more of the BTC ride on the way up a lot more without feeling anxious about cashing out, but you still might consider instead of cashing out 10% maybe you could cash out 1% or some other comfortable number for downside insurance purposes.
Yeah, you don't necessarily want to cash out in the next couple of years (as a millionaire or something like that) and you are in your early 30s and you have almost all of your value in dollars and almost none in bitcoin. That would be ridiculous in my thinking, so in those circumstances, it seems more prudent that you should be letting larger amounts of your btc ride through the volatility, and you surely have to account for your timeline and your ability to live off of the value that you are cashing out.
Of course, if you have already built up a sizeable stash, then that might be a different situation too, so if the value of the BTC that you are cashing out ends up being several million instead of $1million (and this amount is going to vary for everyone in terms of where they live and where they expect to live with cost of living) or even $10million, then you might consider that you are able to put some of that $10million to work too, and maybe even if you are young then you attempt to keep a kind of parity with your bitcoin stash depending on the amounts. In other words, maybe you have cashed out $10million in dollars but you also have $5million still in bitcoin. You have to figure out which amounts are comfortable for you and timeline and amount are going to be relevant factors. Yeah, we can divide these numbers by 10 and the concept still makes sense depending on your situation, but if you divide the numbers by 10, then it might be less compelling for anyone to consider that s/he has reached a nearly unambiguous level of richie as to be able to support himself/herself on the passive income from that accumulated value through the rest of life.
Again, BTC prices going shooting up is not a bad problem to have, and no matter what you are going to be uncomfortable with "what ifs" but in my thinking you are going to be a whole hell of a lot more comfortable if you go through the BTC price projections (on excel or whatever) and then attempt to learn from those BTC price projections in light of your holdings and when you learn, you can tweak along the way while becoming much less emotional than you would have been in the event that you had not created any kind of price projection plan at all.
Similarly, there are tons of other factors too. It could work for some peeps who already in their 40s-50s but for the younger generation its kind of tricky situation.
So, I agree that if you have 30 or 50 or more years that you have to be able to live off of the proceeds of your BTC stash, then you are likely going to want to have either a sufficient amount of stash or some of it working for you in various regards so it continues to generate income, but at certain points you can still be withdrawing some of your stash too, especially if you reach certain thresholds, and maybe if you pass certain bounds, then you know that you can enjoy your consumption preferences... such as hookers, lambos, blows etc. or alternatively yachts, planes and other property
That's the only reason I am not going to touch my retirement stash at any cost even if it hits a significant amount of price.
As you likely noticed from my above responses, I understand the concept of age, including that you should be tweaking your BTC cashing out plan according to age, and surely you should not be cashing out to engage in consumption and have little to no working capital until either you have built a large enough BTC stash that you will not run out of either BTC or dollars, especially if you are using it for many years. On the other hand, if you are older, then you know that you need to start cashing some of it out and consumption might be a good thing, at that point.
Also, I am thinking of some back up for retirement stash. If by any chance something goes wrong because you never know what tricks future holds for you.
Of course.. long term thinking, and if you are a young person and still building your BTC stash, even if bitcoin goes up to $1million and drops 90% or more, it is still likely good to keep some value in bitcoin, because bitcoin is going to likely continue to be a good investment. If in the future, there is either some better investment or bitcoin is no longer a good investment, then, of course, any of us should be ready, willing and able to diversify out of bitcoin and into whatever other assets might be better investments.
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