Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OROBTC]

...

A few years ago a man I respect very much suggested investing only as much as one would understand each investment (that I would now extend to "understand relative to other investments").

As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above.  1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be.  Risks and rewards are both high.  1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me.  If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great!  BTC is better than a Lotto ticket, and has great potential as most of us agree. 

JJG also demands taking personal responsibility for each person's investment, I agree 100% with that.  If BTC goes to $2000, $100 or $0, well that cannot be the fault of taking some unknown commentator's analysis...

Both BTC and gold are worthy diversifications IMO.

*   *   *

Ha ha, vapourminer re 2011 - 2013.  Those days ended for me, though, in late 2012.  Lost my privileges, so to speak.

I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise...  Take away my computer?

[Dabs]

I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise...  Take away my computer?

Re format it. (after backing up all your coins of course.)

[d_eddie]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195299.0

Wall Observer searching for some support imo...

Indeed. He has mine.

Let's root for fillippone! The WO gang can't be ignored.

[vapourminer]

I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise...  Take away my computer?

as long as you can watch its value crash to zero at any instant and be more or less ok with it its pretty easy, especially if you believe in the tech as i did and do.

[d_eddie]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

Options for bitcoin FUTURES, again. How about plain old options? I wonder why they're approaching it this way.

[d_eddie]

What about harvesting human organs from those people.. Of course the world doesn't dare complaining to the CCP because of economic reasons.



https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-a-million-people-are-jailed-at-china-s-gulags-i-escaped-here-s-what-goes-on-inside-1.7994216

OR, they are holding and reeducating muslim terrorists and potential terrorists to safeguard the people.
Unlike the western democracies who cuddle them and let them in to their countries so they can commit terrorist acts against us.

The Uighurs weren't born terrorists. They were born nomads. Most of them are harmless people living in nearby countries, where their ethnicity is just one ingredient in a fairly tolerant, diverse mix. Those who were "trapped" in China got the stick. It's easy to understand that some might have gotten a bit vocal.

[d_eddie]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

...customers will have the choice of options contracts settled with cash, meaning customers receive the fiat equivalent to the contract’s value at expiration, or physically, meaning they receive the actual bitcoin...

Not another tool to gamble and short BTC... 

It's harder to push prices around with options than it is with futures. But I don't know about options on futures: it isn't a kind of asset I've ever heard about before Bakkt. Not that I am a derivative pundit anyway.

[fillippone]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

Options for bitcoin FUTURES, again. How about plain old options? I wonder why they're approaching it this way.

Option on a physically settled future on bitcoin are basically the same thing of an option on the bitcoin itself. I really can’t see any difference.
They are doing so to “recycle” a few items legally I think. But nothing real for the user.

Edit: I saw the message from Javi on the choice between physical or cash settlement of the options. I don’t know his source, but it looks very odd to me, but everything is possible.
If I know more, I will let you know.

[realr0ach]

As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above.  1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be.  Risks and rewards are both high.  1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me.  If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great!  

If you're only willing to put 1% of your money in something, it's definitely not an 'investment'.  A high risk, pump and dump scam maybe, but only willing to risk 1% is not an investment.  To me the word investment implies you actually have confidence in what you're purchasing, and 1% is not confidence.  That would be gambling, not investing (from the relative viewpoint of the individual).  

[infofront]

As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above.  1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be.  Risks and rewards are both high.  1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me.  If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great!  

If you're only willing to put 1% of your money in something, it's definitely not an 'investment'.  A high risk, pump and dump scam maybe, but only willing to risk 1% is not an investment.  To me the word investment implies you actually have confidence in what you're purchasing, and 1% is not confidence.  That would be gambling, not investing (from the relative viewpoint of the individual).

I mostly agree with this. A 1% allocation would've been reasonable pre-2016 or so, when bitcoin was still a possible black swan event in the making, or possibly a flash in the pan.

Since we're making recommendations here, I'll recommend everyone has 40%+ of their net worth in bitcoin. Go big or go home.

[realr0ach]

I mostly agree with this. A 1% allocation would've been reasonable pre-2016 or so, when bitcoin was still a possible black swan event in the making, or possibly a flash in the pan.

Since we're making recommendations here, I'll recommend everyone has 40%+ of their net worth in bitcoin. Go big or go home.

I can go 100% into silver and not be scared of being demolished.  No matter WHAT price point someone goes all-in on Bitcoin at, whether the market cap is $1 million or $200 billion, you will always be scared of losing it all.  That's gambling.  The fact that whether the market cap of Bitcoin is low or high has virtually no effect on it's risk is a major red flag.  If it's NEVER possible to go all-in on Bitcoin without enormous risk, it's obviously not a valid monetary instrument and just another example of why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity since that's the only thing that prevents a monetary instrument from imploding to nothing.

[_javi_]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

Options for bitcoin FUTURES, again. How about plain old options? I wonder why they're approaching it this way.

Option on a physically settled future on bitcoin are basically the same thing of an option on the bitcoin itself. I really can’t see any difference.
They are doing so to “recycle” a few items legally I think. But nothing real for the user.

Edit: I saw the message from Javi on the choice between physical or cash settlement of the options. I don’t know his source, but it looks very odd to me, but everything is possible.
If I know more, I will let you know.

The source is the link you provided: https://www.coindesk.com/bakkt-to-launch-options-on-its-bitcoin-futures-dec-9

"Notably, customers will have the choice of options contracts settled with cash, meaning customers receive the fiat equivalent to the contract’s value at expiration, or physically, meaning they receive the actual bitcoin."

[makrospex]

The source is the link you provided: https://www.coindesk.com/bakkt-to-launch-options-on-its-bitcoin-futures-dec-9

"Notably, customers will have the choice of options contracts settled with cash, meaning customers receive the fiat equivalent to the contract’s value at expiration, or physically, meaning they receive the actual bitcoin."

Those Fiat submitted fucks.
I can't believe this 

[Elwar]

A while back I was phished by the other bitcointalk (.to or something like that). It's the only bitcointalk that comes up in google searches.

They got my e-mail and password.

I received an e-mail (on that e-mail address) saying that they hacked my computer and have my password (they revealed the password I had used on bitcointalk) and said they have all of my information and have video of me "pleasuring myself" (lol). That if I did not send them some DASH they would reveal the video to the world. Also, because they hacked my computer they would know if I read that e-mail. Also they deleted any trace of the malware I "had downloaded".

Fortunately I don't re-use passwords and my laptop has a hardware switch to turn off all devices I do not use (such as the camera, microphone, bluetooth, wifi) so I knew instantly that the e-mail was BS. (It is almost as if I am keeping my information from nosy governments...)

FYI in case you've been hit by that phishing site in the past.

Also, having been through shit like this with governments twice...think about what you would lose today if some government official walked into your house right this very second and confiscated all of your electronics (phone, computers, etc.) and had them in their possession to unlock any password they desired (except the many layers of encryption I had on my computer when the German government took it the first time). You have no preparation and it comes when you least expect it. Protect yourself. The more you live your life with some small bits of freedom, the more of a target you become.

I'm just glad I did not follow through with being a gold bug like I was before Bitcoin.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

No words needed ———>


https://twitter.com/bitiraofficial/status/1187460026220400640?s=21

[yefi]

I'll always like Joe Rogan, and I realize this is the Onion, but he does ask some pretty dumb questions sometimes... Maybe just as a side effect of being too stoned.

Maybe it's not Joe Rogan, but that AI version of him by Dessa?

[fillippone]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

Options for bitcoin FUTURES, again. How about plain old options? I wonder why they're approaching it this way.

Option on a physically settled future on bitcoin are basically the same thing of an option on the bitcoin itself. I really can’t see any difference.
They are doing so to “recycle” a few items legally I think. But nothing real for the user.

Edit: I saw the message from Javi on the choice between physical or cash settlement of the options. I don’t know his source, but it looks very odd to me, but everything is possible.
If I know more, I will let you know.

The source is the link you provided: https://www.coindesk.com/bakkt-to-launch-options-on-its-bitcoin-futures-dec-9

"Notably, customers will have the choice of options contracts settled with cash, meaning customers receive the fiat equivalent to the contract’s value at expiration, or physically, meaning they receive the actual bitcoin."

Ahah funny!
Either I accidentally skipped that paragraph (maybe) or they edited the information after I read it (possible, as I posted quite straight away after publication).
Anyway I think it is a very weird characteristic for a listed option contract. It could even potentially lead to price discrepancies depending on the settlement price. For this reason I guess the choice is on the option to trade, not the option on the settlement itself: I.e. we will have “twin options” to be traded, one for the cash settlement and one for the physically settled.
Again, it’s very strange choice for an exchange. Also because cash settlement option will be directly competing against the CME options CME will launch in January.
We know how it ends when you compete with CME (CBOT future?)

[jbreher]

There you go again with your misleading questions implying LN is custodial and can't be trusted ...

Why would you think that? Talk about a flying leap of logic. The topic was this new so-called 'innovation' upon LN allowing asynchronous transactions, not LN itself. Either keep up, or don't bother to comment. At least not disparagingly. Makes you appear the fool.

Nay, base LN has its own piles o' poop, long since having been discussed.

I read your comment with the same understanding as Dabs, so.....Not surprised you're getting blow back. Just saying

Well, if’n you’re gonna react based upon something other than what I actually write, that’s all on you.

[realr0ach]

Bitcoin is even more scarce in the universe.

Bitcoin is scarce?  That's news to the universe, because the universe says that just like every other artificial scarcity scheme that doesn't occupy a fixed position in the lattice of space, it can be replicated infinitely.  If the price went too low causing a bunch of miners to shut off, causing a cascading collapse of even more miners and a chain freeze, Bitcoin can be restarted right back up at a new genesis block again from square one.  So where is the scarcity?  It doesn't exist.  This process could be repeated a million times.  It can even be repeated without the first chain dying.

Are you spawning a new universe by spawning a new genesis block?  No.  Something has to actually exist in THIS universe to have real scarcity.  Not a fake universe, aka a video game that you try to trick people into playing in a confidence game scam.  Because that's what Bitcoin is, the world's most primitive MMORPG video game.  The servers are distributed, but not decentralized.  Instead of having inputs like up, down, left, right, you have only one input, hashing, and whoever hashes fastest earns some temporary, valueless, Super Mario tokens.

More advanced multiplayer video games than Bitcoin like "World of Warcraft" already proved that virtual coins that don't exist on distributed servers can have some form of temporary value, so Bitcoin has actually done nothing new AT ALL.  It's not possible to create a decentralized digital currency because transaction validators are always designed to centralize, so it's an apples to apples comparison contrasting the video game known as Bitcoin's distributed servers to World of Warcraft's distributed servers.

As I've said before, the purpose of money is to transfer value from the present to the future, which requires use of a non-perishable, physical commodity.  Is there any guarantee of the World or Warcraft servers still being up tomorrow?  No.  Is there any guarantee of Bitcoin miners or nodes still being there tomorrow since they require constant resource expenditure and a constant introduction of new greater fools willing to supply those resources?  NO. Even if you could guarantee a stream of new fools, it can still fall apart from a million other black swans like the cryptography blowing up.  So, no, there is no scarcity, it's just a fragile MMORPG video game that can reboot or die at any second and is obviously not a real commodity or money.

[modpleasehelp]

Big next lag down comeing any momant. Please be careful

Sharp drop is making approachmant in the TA range.

You can subscribe my channel YouTube please. It’s comeing any day a full channel TA Analysis. I’m a full time on YouTuber.