Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

Are they?

Prices can go up, hash can become more efficient or hash rate can drop.  All remain options - and not mutually exclusive ones.

[HairyMaclairy]

Reposting this here because it deserves to be seen by the WO.

I know it's not really "art" but I was so impressed by DdmrDdmr's word cloud that I couldn't resist... this is based on the number of posts:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5193860.msg52794724#msg52794724

[JayJuanGee]

ok whatever fuck him

https://shitcoin.ninja/post/2019/10/comparing-bitcoin-investment-strategies/
although JJG summed it up already

I did?

I thought that I was merely battling out the matter with Biodom to suggest that conclusion is bullshit and to suggest for the vast majority of cases DCA rules - especially for less sophisticated investors, even though anyone can put in some work, research, thinking about their own financial circumstances and create more advanced versions of DCA..... or maybe a kind of DCA hybrid that is  prudent and customized to their own situation, or if they have a lot of money, then they have a lot more options including DCA or lump sum or whatever they like, but they will still be advantaged by doing some tailorizing fo their strategy, if they have time.

[rolling]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

[Biodom]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

It remains to be seen that this would work long term, although so far the adjustment of hashing to price fluctuation was impressive.
I worry a bit about mining concentration in the hands of the vertically integrated entities, like the recent P. Thiel venture.
It might cause further centralization and such centralization might cause undue re-consideration of bitcoin's rules (in time).

[rolling]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

It remains to be seen that this would work long term, although so far the adjustment of hashing to price fluctuation was impressive.
I worry a bit about mining concentration in the hands of the vertically integrated entities, like the recent P. Thiel venture.
It might cause further centralization and such centralization might cause undue re-consideration of bitcoin's rules (in time).

If bitcoin is still mined worldwide by then, I doubt any changes to the rules would be possible. It would require consensus and the world I know can't get consensus on any topic. Therefore, the only way to change the rules is to fork off. That could happen many more times and the value will follow if there is a market for it.

I think big daddy Bitcoin will be just fine though.

[Biodom]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

It remains to be seen that this would work long term, although so far the adjustment of hashing to price fluctuation was impressive.
I worry a bit about mining concentration in the hands of the vertically integrated entities, like the recent P. Thiel venture.
It might cause further centralization and such centralization might cause undue re-consideration of bitcoin's rules (in time).

If bitcoin is still mined worldwide by then, I doubt any changes to the rules would be possible. It would require consensus and the world I know can't get consensus on any topic. Therefore, the only way to change the rules is to fork off. That could happen many more times and the value will follow if there is a market for it.

I think big daddy Bitcoin will be just fine though.

Cheers.

[jojo69]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

I get all that.  Allow me to flesh out my fears.

I see the possibility of many miners jumping to a new, well marketed and timed, coin at some future halving.  Were some other chain to have more hash power than BTC the specter of an attack would loom, further reinforcing the value proposition of the new coin.

[HairyMaclairy]

I sure hope Satoshi didn't blow it with the curve he chose.

Fees are going to have to, umm, increase, to incentivize miners.

No need to incetivize miners. It's a self-regulating system. If they can't make enough money, they will drop out which makes the remaining miners more profitable.

Also, fees may increase as well and small transactions will be squeezed out. This is ok. There is no reason to use the worlds most secure transaction network to buy a cup of coffee.

I get all that.  Allow me to flesh out my fears.

I see the possibility of many miners jumping to a new, well marketed and timed, coin at some future halving.  Were some other chain to have more hash power than BTC the specter of an attack would loom, further reinforcing the value proposition of the new coin.

Allow me to respond. 

Meh not going to happen

[jojo69]

Well I certainly hope not, still, the sharpness of the "knee" of this asymptote spooks me.

[HairyMaclairy]

Nah you can sleep at night.  We got a long ways to go before you need to start worrying.

[whiteboy420]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

is this instagram ?

don't make me add to my short.

Nah you can sleep at night.  We got a long ways to go before you need to start worrying.

ur certainty makes me uncomfortable.



The Bitcoin chart looks horrible.


Not only does the flag that followed the recent breakdown project a move to $6K, but we are close to completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top, with a $14K head, and neck line just below $8K, that projects a collapse to below $2K!

#BoomerTA is the only TA i fear.

[VB1001]

I compared basic regressions of log price ~ log time v log price ~ log sf using data prior to 2014 and full data. Stock to flow continues to be a *consistent* predictor. Times ability to predict, funnily enough changes with time. Stock to flow doesn't.

https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1185191801340084225


Max Supply 21,000,000
Extracted 18,000,000
Lost +/- 4,000,000

Every day there will be fewer opportunities.

[whiteboy420]

The U.S. Dollar Index closed a down week on the lows, while 30-year Treasury yields closed an up week near their highs.

The dollar and bonds falling in tandem is a good sign that the bubble has popped! 

[HairyMaclairy]

Chart still looks ok to me

[Icygreen]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5193860.msg52804250#msg52804250
^
I do like this thread ...... sorry I didn’t got all of you

For sure the most unique to bitcointalk.org. Nice entry!  Reprezentin (fist bump).

[fillippone]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5193860.msg52804250#msg52804250
^
I do like this thread ...... sorry I didn’t got all of you

Best art so far!
I wasn’t able to find my hat, but who cares!
Great job!

[GreatArkansas]

W.O. spotted
 

[nutildah]

Yesterday was my girlfriends birthday, so we went to the largest aquarium in the Philippines, and the largest I've ever seen. The place was huge, packed with fish, sharks, birds, crocodiles and other lizards. Could probably have spent all day in there.





Later we went to go shoot pool at a sports bar. I met this nice Israeli gent and we got to talking about our respective jobs. He told me he had 300 bitcoin held in a "trust" and showed me this Telegram group he started for people who owned 100 BTC or more. He was doing pretty well for himself obviously.

After hearing it was my g.f.'s birthday he proceeded to give her his cue stick, which cost at least $200... Probably the nicest gift anybody had ever given her. She then started to cry, as she was pretty drunk. Then we almost forgot about it, leaving it in the Jollibee before I remembered and we told the cabbie to go back so we could get it!

Sometimes I'm pretty amazed by the generosity of bitcoiners.

[bitebits]

Interesting...Lump sum beats DCA about 68% of the time.

https://shitcoin.ninja/post/2019/10/comparing-bitcoin-investment-strategies/

We created a simple trial comparing lump sum to the strategy of investing in the same amount monthly over a year, and found that lump sum still won ~67.9% of the time. Even the arbitrarily reduced dataset showed that Lump Sum beats DCA 60.8% of time.

Not surprising? If the long term direction is up, same as for any investment, lump sum will give you the best return.

Dollar cost averaging is just for those afraid ‘losing’ dollars short term. I never had that with investments, but hate losing dollars on day to day spending (a guaranteed loss).


Invest now or temporarily hold your cash?
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf