Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Icygreen]

I don't believe yet. More bear posts needed! Deploy the FUD trolls!  Please save me!
disclosure: Bought this dip twice and considering another. Long term multi-halving HODL

[dragonvslinux]

Now over half way to the breakdown target of the descending triangle that most people have already forgotten about, despite it being very much still in play.
Not long left to go now. If you're not already accumulating, you're doing it wrong 

[vapourminer]

I don't believe yet. More bear posts needed! Deploy the FUD trolls!  Please save me!
disclosure: Bought this dip twice and considering another. Long term multi-halving HODL

the lowest cost coin i have is perhaps $2.50 USD. so until its under that its a bull market to me. sorry 

[Icygreen]

Bitcoin is curently being "advertised" to big money. The ATH hash rate, long term trend, discount prices, fundamental cutting edge shift in monetary policy, etc. Bitcoin is coming for them like it or not. This is your chance to participate in history. Prices are a distraction, keep your eye on the prize.

[makrospex]

Prices are a distraction, keep your eye on the prize.

Please elaborate.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Dude. I understand you are trying to be edgy and cool and stuff, but please just stop it. You are dealing with HODLers the likes of which you have never encountered before.

 Please stop before we have to ignore you. If you are going to make such statements as dropping to $2k USD/BTC is possible, then I will simply respond with "Do you even recognize that cost of production is about $6k USD/BTC ?"

 The sheer dollar investment in the infrastructure presently supporting Bitcoin, and taking the last five years of trends into consideration, I do not foresee a situation where we drop that low. I look forward to your insightful reasoning to support Bitcoin dropping below cost-of-production levels.

[JayJuanGee]

I agree.  Fuck the charts, unless they say something that I like.   

That is the position that the majority of investors take. Confirmatory bias. You can see it in this board, you can see it everywhere.

In general investing, it always causes speculators large losses eventually. In BTC it has only been different because the long term trend was/is so exponetially strong.  Merely an act of faith to hodl. In that sense, all trading/walls/charts/opinions are merely a distraction while waiting for the next leg up. (You , among others, provide a lot of words and are a great distraction ! ).

I see my role as pointing out that nothing is 100% certain, even the survival of BTC.

I have been reading charts a very long time and they are not difficult to understand. IMO they do not definitively predict the future but do provide a reference to the probability scale (of which I know you are a fan).

I don't really agree with what seems to be the sentiment of the bolded part above..... let me repeat it here: "You , among others, provide a lot of words and are a great distraction ! ." Of course, I agree that I literally provide a lot of words; however, you make it sound as if I am trying to pump my bags or something like that or that I am unintentionally misleading folks into a kind of wrong world view.

Sure, my suggestion is that people need to take some stake in bitcoin, and likely a 1% stake is the minimum level of prudence, from my view, but my larger message has largely attempted to be that people have to decide for themselves, take responsibility for their own actions, and exercise their own prudence that is hopefully somehow customized to their own situation. 

In other words (yes it takes words to do this), one of the main problems that I have found with people is that there are a lot of them who do not come anywhere near close enough to even attempting to figure out their own personal and financial situation with any degree of particularity before investing in anything whether bitcoin or otherwise.  So, I don't see myself as forcing any kind of agenda on people beyond attempting to get people to do more homework on themselves and their situation in order that they make wiser choices, especially in regards to getting into bitcoin and largely minimizing their exposure to shit coins. 

My words in these kinds of threads are also to attempt to help myself to work through ideas, and to the extent that I am trying to do anything with evoking action from peeps, rather than brainstorming for myself, has been attempting to solicit thinking from other peeps and brainstorming attempts without really telling them what to do, beyond asserting that they should learn their own situation and adapt to their own situation while being responsible for their own decisions (or dumb or whatever that might be).

Personally, I have tentatively concluded that you are more patronizing towards people than me and chastise them for not adequately considering downside bitcoin scenarios.

Ok. I will concede that maybe in the end, we are largely the same, but kind of seem to come at the bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie from a different angle. 

Let me give one more pitch attempt.  You seem to strongly suggest that people error on the side of making sure that they adequately consider possible downside BTC scenarios, but for some reason you are nearly constantly stuck on BTC going down, and you are not really telling people to buy BTC (so it seems to me), and I seem to error on the side of strongly suggesting that people make sure that they get into the bitcoin game (while taking responsibility for themselves) and make sure that they make sure that they have enough stake into bitcoin at all times in order to adequately prepare their lil selfies for possible up.       

[vapourminer]

Prices are a distraction, keep your eye on the prize.

Please elaborate.

Put yourself into a drug/alcohol-induced haze for the next two years, and HODL. No SODL.

this worked for me. late 2011 to 2013.

EDIT: although i suppose i never stopped the drug induced haze part

[Icygreen]

Prices are a distraction, keep your eye on the prize.

Please elaborate.

To me, Bitcoin is free speech, where I can effectively say "I choose to exit", its my independence from state, my last resort, and my dopamine  
Its personal activism on many levels for me and value is becoming a warped concept the longer I study Bitcoin. Some people make large charitable donations for the better good of other people, its feels like that. Then there's the secondary value based on the very system with which it aims to lapse.
Excuse my high pie in the sky notions of peace love and happiness but this is the best tool in the shop so to speak.

Edit: I guess that's the cool part of Bitcoin, it can be so many things for people.

[OROBTC]

...

A few years ago a man I respect very much suggested investing only as much as one would understand each investment (that I would now extend to "understand relative to other investments").

As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above.  1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be.  Risks and rewards are both high.  1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me.  If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great!  BTC is better than a Lotto ticket, and has great potential as most of us agree. 

JJG also demands taking personal responsibility for each person's investment, I agree 100% with that.  If BTC goes to $2000, $100 or $0, well that cannot be the fault of taking some unknown commentator's analysis...

Both BTC and gold are worthy diversifications IMO.

*   *   *

Ha ha, vapourminer re 2011 - 2013.  Those days ended for me, though, in late 2012.  Lost my privileges, so to speak.

I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise...  Take away my computer?

[Dabs]

I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise...  Take away my computer?

Re format it. (after backing up all your coins of course.)

[d_eddie]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195299.0

Wall Observer searching for some support imo...

Indeed. He has mine.

Let's root for fillippone! The WO gang can't be ignored.

[vapourminer]

I do get your point that maybe just squeezing my eyes tightly and not looking at BTC price for a year or two might be wise...  Take away my computer?

as long as you can watch its value crash to zero at any instant and be more or less ok with it its pretty easy, especially if you believe in the tech as i did and do.

[d_eddie]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

Options for bitcoin FUTURES, again. How about plain old options? I wonder why they're approaching it this way.

[d_eddie]

What about harvesting human organs from those people.. Of course the world doesn't dare complaining to the CCP because of economic reasons.



https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-a-million-people-are-jailed-at-china-s-gulags-i-escaped-here-s-what-goes-on-inside-1.7994216

OR, they are holding and reeducating muslim terrorists and potential terrorists to safeguard the people.
Unlike the western democracies who cuddle them and let them in to their countries so they can commit terrorist acts against us.

The Uighurs weren't born terrorists. They were born nomads. Most of them are harmless people living in nearby countries, where their ethnicity is just one ingredient in a fairly tolerant, diverse mix. Those who were "trapped" in China got the stick. It's easy to understand that some might have gotten a bit vocal.

[d_eddie]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

...customers will have the choice of options contracts settled with cash, meaning customers receive the fiat equivalent to the contract’s value at expiration, or physically, meaning they receive the actual bitcoin...

Not another tool to gamble and short BTC... 

It's harder to push prices around with options than it is with futures. But I don't know about options on futures: it isn't a kind of asset I've ever heard about before Bakkt. Not that I am a derivative pundit anyway.

[fillippone]

if you are scared from BAKKT impact on market, then brace for more:

Bakkt to Launch Options on Its Bitcoin Futures Dec. 9

Bakkt announced Thursday that it would “launch the first regulated options contract for bitcoin futures,” adding a new product to its current slate of physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a Medium post that the contracts were built in response to customer feedback, and that ICE Futures US self-certified the contract through the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

I am afraid time has come to write the option equivalen to my Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask! post.
Gigantic work, but has to be done.

Options for bitcoin FUTURES, again. How about plain old options? I wonder why they're approaching it this way.

Option on a physically settled future on bitcoin are basically the same thing of an option on the bitcoin itself. I really can’t see any difference.
They are doing so to “recycle” a few items legally I think. But nothing real for the user.

Edit: I saw the message from Javi on the choice between physical or cash settlement of the options. I don’t know his source, but it looks very odd to me, but everything is possible.
If I know more, I will let you know.

[realr0ach]

As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above.  1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be.  Risks and rewards are both high.  1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me.  If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great!  

If you're only willing to put 1% of your money in something, it's definitely not an 'investment'.  A high risk, pump and dump scam maybe, but only willing to risk 1% is not an investment.  To me the word investment implies you actually have confidence in what you're purchasing, and 1% is not confidence.  That would be gambling, not investing (from the relative viewpoint of the individual).  

[infofront]

As I am not a programmer nor expert in crypto, I have arrived at HODLing some 1% (of my net), the minimum that JJG suggests above.  1% is probably close to what I understand BTC to be.  Risks and rewards are both high.  1% is the right amount for me in that if BTC price craters, it changes very little for me.  If it climbs to a nice ATH, well great!  

If you're only willing to put 1% of your money in something, it's definitely not an 'investment'.  A high risk, pump and dump scam maybe, but only willing to risk 1% is not an investment.  To me the word investment implies you actually have confidence in what you're purchasing, and 1% is not confidence.  That would be gambling, not investing (from the relative viewpoint of the individual).

I mostly agree with this. A 1% allocation would've been reasonable pre-2016 or so, when bitcoin was still a possible black swan event in the making, or possibly a flash in the pan.

Since we're making recommendations here, I'll recommend everyone has 40%+ of their net worth in bitcoin. Go big or go home.

[realr0ach]

I mostly agree with this. A 1% allocation would've been reasonable pre-2016 or so, when bitcoin was still a possible black swan event in the making, or possibly a flash in the pan.

Since we're making recommendations here, I'll recommend everyone has 40%+ of their net worth in bitcoin. Go big or go home.

I can go 100% into silver and not be scared of being demolished.  No matter WHAT price point someone goes all-in on Bitcoin at, whether the market cap is $1 million or $200 billion, you will always be scared of losing it all.  That's gambling.  The fact that whether the market cap of Bitcoin is low or high has virtually no effect on it's risk is a major red flag.  If it's NEVER possible to go all-in on Bitcoin without enormous risk, it's obviously not a valid monetary instrument and just another example of why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity since that's the only thing that prevents a monetary instrument from imploding to nothing.