Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

October ends in a day and a half and it doesn't look like we are going to reach $16k any time soon. (by soon I mean in a week) Maybe it will be different in November. We may try 8k one more time. Hopefully this will be the last time.

My feeling (of course, bitcoin is unpredictable, so I may be wrong) is that November will be no different and we will not see 5 figures any time soon (not this year, at least, not for a significant amount of time, short spikes are possible). The sudden spike on 26th was very impressive, but bitcoin failed to break out of downward channel, so I presume that it continues. I hope it will bounce up somewhere in $6500 to $5800 region...

Hahahahaha

There are always folks wanting to predict down (or is it down before up?) in a bull market.

Go figuring ur lil selfies!!!!!!

 

I do not want it to go down. I would be very happy if it went parabolic, straight to $100K, but it is not going to happen.

Without disclosing too much I can say the following. I have some amount of coins which is large enough to consider it a major investment now (although the initial spendings were insignificant), but (at the current rate ) not large enough to change my lifestyle. Another tenfold rise will allow me to retire or at least not to have a full-time employment and work eight hours a day. But, although I think that such rise is not impossible (and even another tenfold increase after that, so I will certainly not sell everything at $100K if I ever see it), its probability in the observable future seems to be lower and lower. Right now I am contemplating a possibility of trading to complement my regular income without touching my main stash. No margin trading and certainly no shorting (I think simply shorting bitcoin is always too risky), but sometimes I think about hedging – buying bitcoin and simultaneously opening a short position to cover possible downward move, which seems to be very probable now. I think that in short term (months) we are in a bear market since July and there is no end of it in sight.

You seem to be a bit all over the place in your logic, and you really think that there is any kind of accuracy to say that bitcoin converted to a bear market in July?  The more logical assertion would be to assert that the April to June price rise was a bull trap.  Of course, not a convincing story, but flip flopping is even less convincing.

Hey do whatever you like in terms of shorting, or at least utilizing that tool if you really believe that odds are greater for down than up right now.

Even though you might feel more comfortable with a 10x BTC price appreciation, we surely don't need any kind of 10x price appreciation for people to be able to figure out ways to profit stupendously from being into btc.

As far as your desire to accumulate more BTC, you might well realize that there are ways just to play larger swings without engaging in too much gambling or too many needs to talk your book... but whatever, you can do what you like...  I only have so much sympathy for seemingly illogical bear talk when we are way the fuck more likely to be in a bull market, and sure maybe I should not be losing my patience because it is possible that you are correct and bitcoin is so fucking irrational as to be flip flopping in the way that you (and various other disingenuous peeps, shills or seemingly retards) seem to be suggesting.

9k failed to hold, looks like we may be in the middle of a giant and very fast pump and dump. The pump had really low volume for how high it went and how fast, so I never trusted it.

We need to get some serious volume to prove the bargain boyz have really filled up their trucks.

You are getting a bit annoying with your ongoing wishful thinking DOWN talk, lambie....   Haven't you been wrong enough recently, especially with the 42% price rise in one day kind of fucking up the supposed downtrend? Also, in our rise to $13,880, I recall that you were down talking from about $7k and upwards and expecting a correction that did not end up happening until we got to nearly $14k....  Also, getting all CITEEEEEEEEEEE with any little tiny eeenie weeenie price move downward (even when largely insignificant and acting like there is some kind of down significance to normal range corrections after an upsurge)   almost like Alexander_Z (refer above).  

[JayJuanGee]

shorts on finex capitulated.

so who is paying the longs now ?

Didn't you get r3ckt enough, recently?  Or you just want to keep on acting like a dumb who thinks that he knows "things"?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Pump it uuuuuup

Stiffler meme ready

Indeed but damn only my phone right now.....

Save it for 10,000

[JayJuanGee]

Pump it uuuuuup

Stiffler meme ready

Indeed but damn only my phone right now.....

Save it for 10,000

Soon^tm we are going to be able to proclaim that 4 digits are gone forever, but will "we" be correct this time?   

[btcanonymous666]

"2x per year" lines, plus Anon's predictions:

https://i.imgur.com/dVFwNur.png

I doubt the rise well be that smooth and orderly. This is corn we're talking about.

I think the rise will be less steep & another 12 months to reach that peak.

12 months to $100k? That's pretty optimistic expectation I guess.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

"2x per year" lines, plus Anon's predictions:



I doubt the rise well be that smooth and orderly. This is corn we're talking about.

I think the rise will be less steep & another 12 months to reach that peak.

12 months to $100k? That's pretty optimistic expectation I guess.

Another 12 months than this graph is projecting so mid to late 2021.

[mikeywith]

In my opinion, there is a big chance for a pump if the current attempt to reverse the trend succeeds.

BTC/EUR chart looks weird 

anyhow, I highly doubt any more considerable pumps until dec where we could very likely hit 12k then, as for this monthly candle , i think it will close around 9500$ , and next month movement will be within the current candle's body.

The theory above is based on a very large picture analysis I made a while ago using Fibo only, so far everything seems to be going according to "plan"

Since the start of Bitcoin market,we had only 2 major bull trends (nearly 2 years long) and 2 bear markets (nearly a year long)

In this chart I am interested in how does each bull trend starts, assuming ofcourse that we are now in the 3rd bull move which suppose to last about 2 years , we are nearly a year in now.

by drawing the Fib from the bottom to the top of each bull market, we get some interesting facts.

1-A correction all the way down below that 0.786 (blue)  > Done
2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped
3-A rejection from the 0.382 (14k) > Done
4-A retest of the 0.618  at around 7700$ > still confirming.... Done
5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month  Done
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown

more updates can be found here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191555.msg52708556#msg52708556  , wish I can follow up with the WO but i am way too slow and the memes are so much for me. 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Amazing!



@Bitcoin
11 years ago today...

https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1189894737735471104?s=21

[LUCKMCFLY]

I love Italy...



Source: https://www.coinness.com/news/443952

Example to follow for many more countries.

[MichaelX]

That is so awesome. 10 years ago today. Can you imagine what the next 10 years will be. I certainly can't, but as someone else said "Past performance is no guarantee of the future, but they tend to rhyme."

[whiteboy420]

shorts on finex capitulated.

so who is paying the longs now ?

Didn't you get r3ckt enough, recently?  Or you just want to keep on acting like a dumb who thinks that he knows "things"?

still short from 9750$.

But yeah got stopped out on my last trade.

[El duderino_]

Hmm, $BTC hoovering up supply just under major resistance. RSI+WT obviously broke out of their 4 month trend. Just a matter of time until the next leg up to $11k+ IMO.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/beastlybtc/status/1189923725639991296?s=21

But I want 16K today, just to close October

[JayJuanGee]

"2x per year" lines, plus Anon's predictions:



I doubt the rise well be that smooth and orderly. This is corn we're talking about.

I think the rise will be less steep & another 12 months to reach that peak.

12 months to $100k? That's pretty optimistic expectation I guess.

Another 12 months than this graph is projecting so mid to late 2021.

Fuck the graphs beyond just allowing us to visualize degrees of movement rather than any kind of level of certainty that is sometimes ascribed to them.

Conceding that bitcoin can make a vast array of outrageous price movements and retrospectively we can look back at "what it did" and assert that it was within the realm of expectations - even if a bit outrageous.  In other words, we are kind of used to being shocked by what bitcoin does... especially while in the midst of the doings..

So in that sense it is possible that BTC could front run all of this and get to $100k in 3 months or even less, but in my humble bumble (and sometimes not so humble) thinking, the more prudent scenarios would put 12 months from now as within the range of the minimum of the best case (prudent) scenarios. 

More realistically we are talking 12 to 18 months after the halvening (which would be 18 months to 24 months from now) before we would breaking into or even touching upon $100k BTC prices.

Sure, there are also relatively prudent scenarios that would allow for a BIGGER battles taking place this time around and in this 4 year fractal pattern, which would cause a seeming break from the fractal pattern and would cause a much longer period before BTC reaches $100k - perhaps even adding another halvening into the mix before we even are able to reach $100k. 

Therefore, even though we feel real wonderful about how bitcoin's price movements have played out so far in our lives to cause a lot of us to become way the fuck richer than we thought and to have become richer much faster than we thought, we should not be allowing such previous patterns to cause us to become too complacent in our BTC price expectations - and treating probably events as givens - which means that even adding another 4 years to whatever had been previously expressed as prudent possible scenarios could allow us NOT to get our hopes up too much, and even those kinds of extra 4 years to reach $100k could still be relatively bullish for bitcoin as long as BTC prices don't go below $5k for extended periods of time  - or worse yet to go back to testing $3,122 support seems almost out of the question, even though it could end up playing out as bullish in the long run. 

Don't get me wrong, absent some outrageous bitcoin breaking scenario, I would assign really low probabilities to $3,122 being revisited, probably even less than 12%, and even getting back to below $6.5k seems to be less than 40%.. maybe even lower than that could be a prudent assertion, now.  I think that my point is that even having decent odds in our favor and making bitcoin to be likely one of the best investments currently on the market, there are a decently large number of scenarios (and even prudent ones) in which the more probable event (going to $100k and beyond within 12 to 18 months after the upcoming halvening) does not end up playing out.

Don't be calling me a bear, you fucks.     I am merely a cautious bull who does not want to either count my chickens before they are hatched or to create expectations that are so goddamned high that inevitably I am going to end up disappointed.  I feel a little better when my situation evolves in such a way that ends up exceeding my expectations, and even with a bit of a cushion of exceedingness - which surely has been my experiences with bitcoin, so far to date. 

By the way, in bitcoin, I am about 8x to 12x above my expectations depending on how the matter is framed, so there would have to be some pretty extreme shitty-ass situations happen in bitcoin before I would start to feel that bitcoin has either underperformed my expectations or lead me to a worse situation (psychologically and/or financially), and even if some of the extreme shitty-ass situations were to end up playing out, I am not without some abilities to attempt to recognize the shitty situation and to mitigate my losses, and at the same time, there could also have been some satisfaction for having been on this so far crazy-ass ride.

[jupiter9]

-snip-

The conclusion from that is: The existence of men is pointless and will soon not be necessary. Our future AI overlords will realize this, and shall start exterminating males as soon as the tables turn. Don't try creating arguments mr. r0ach when your IQ is even challenged by early monkey specimen.

 Nothing in this universe is pointless. You just don't understand it. Based on your behavior you don't have a very high conciousness to be able to know that. Iq is not consciousness. What's the point of high IQ if you learn from the wrong books that are censored and their purpose is to brainwash.

[El duderino_]

Canada beating U.S. to the punch on ETFS! Launch coming soon

https://twitter.com/redditbtc/status/1189926829429317632?s=21

Now it’s Canada’s time to ETF 

[Elwar]

I love Italy...



Source: https://www.coinness.com/news/443952

Example to follow for many more countries.

Must be nice to live in a country where you can use bitcoin to pay for things online.

The US is stuck with BitPay where you can't pay with bitcoins without installing some obscure wallet and paying BitPay extra fees while they advertise bcash with zero fees.

[fillippone]

I love Italy...



Source: https://www.coinness.com/news/443952

Example to follow for many more countries.

Must be nice to live in a country where you can use bitcoin to pay for things online.

The US is stuck with BitPay where you can't pay with bitcoins without installing some obscure wallet and paying BitPay extra fees while they advertise bcash with zero fees.

I have read that report.
Many have observed that the source is unknown and not available, it' s only a long ciruclar reference of articles.
That statistics also looks very suspicious to me: no way BTC payments in italy are 20% of whole PayPal payments.
I know only a couple of people who actually use Bitcoin, while pretty everyone use PayPal (and bear in mind that I think my survey is pretty skewed towards Bitcoin users, for obvious reasons).

[JayJuanGee]

-snip-

The conclusion from that is: The existence of men is pointless and will soon not be necessary. Our future AI overlords will realize this, and shall start exterminating males as soon as the tables turn. Don't try creating arguments mr. r0ach when your IQ is even challenged by early monkey specimen.

 Nothing in this universe is pointless. You just don't understand it. Based on your behavior you don't have a very high conciousness to be able to know that. Iq is not consciousness. What's the point of high IQ if you learn from the wrong books that are censored and their purpose is to brainwash.

You must be new in these parts, jupiter9?

Point is that it does not even matter if Lauda is correct or not.  Only rarely is there any semblance of a reason to actually support dee snot-nosed roachie poachie, except perhaps is he is inadvertently saying something smart, which again tends to be an extremely rare happening.

[bkbirge]

More realistically we are talking 12 to 18 months after the halvening (which would be 18 months to 24 months from now) before we would breaking into or even touching upon $100k BTC prices.

Sure, there are also relatively prudent scenarios that would allow for a BIGGER battles taking place this time around and in this 4 year fractal pattern, which would cause a seeming break from the fractal pattern and would cause a much longer period before BTC reaches $100k - perhaps even adding another halvening into the mix before we even are able to reach $100k. 

So basically just keep DCA'ing into the foreseeable future. I think I can do that.

[nutildah]

-snip-

The conclusion from that is: The existence of men is pointless and will soon not be necessary. Our future AI overlords will realize this, and shall start exterminating males as soon as the tables turn. Don't try creating arguments mr. r0ach when your IQ is even challenged by early monkey specimen.

 Nothing in this universe is pointless. You just don't understand it. Based on your behavior you don't have a very high conciousness to be able to know that. Iq is not consciousness. What's the point of high IQ if you learn from the wrong books that are censored and their purpose is to brainwash.

You must be new in these parts, jupiter9?

Point is that it does not even matter if Lauda is correct or not.  Only rarely is there any semblance of a reason to actually support dee snot-nosed roachie poachie, except perhaps is he is inadvertently saying something smart, which again tends to be an extremely rare happening.

I looked to see who would give him a damn merit, then saw that it was me, then wondered why the hell I would have done that.

Oh, he's this guy :

My friend, let me tell you something. I never had a sex and i probably won't have in this life. I'm almost 40 years old. But i never got any compensation for that. All i have is 0.5 btc but i'm still happy with my life.

I'm kind of regretting it now though because part of having a high IQ is being able to figure out which books are brainwashing you.