Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

My term deposit at bank is about to mature after 6 months. I'm getting like $1k for this shitty investment. And what is worse, the interest rates got halved. Next time, I'll be getting like $500 for the same investment at the same bank.

I am making a big decision here:


Option 1: Keep collecting peanuts. Keep DCA'ing.

Option 2: Buy the dip, Keep DCA'ing. (1-2 btc)

Option 3: Nuke everything and become a 1 million club member while I still can. (all in)

*Option 3 violates my investment rules. Violates it like fuck all gimme lambo.

Decisions like that remain personal ones.  Usually, any of us can set guidelines for ourselves, which then empowers us to deviate from our own guidelines.  The more that you deviate from your own guidelines, the more risk that you run in terms of having to go through a process to reset the totality of your guidelines.

I understand that it is tempting to go for BIGGER when BIGGER is there, staring you in the face (referring to option 3), it is tempting.... it is tempting. 

Consider, again, your timeline, and consider why you feel rushed to be at a certain place at a certain time?  Do you feel that you are not going to have enough when you reach a certain time? 

Or do you believe that more is always better?   Sure, more would be better if it is accompanied by a sufficiently low amount of risk to achieve.  I understand that a lot of us are looking at the four year fractal comparisons, and stock to flow models and s-curve exponential growth/adoption and we are seeing that a lot of the models are lining up for good fundamentals.  But these good fundamentals are not without downside nor are they without the ability of BIG ass players to manipulate the shit out of them with their unending supply of cash and ability to convince dumb people with FUD spreading.

 Sometimes desires for MOAR are not necessarily going to bring you to a better place when you attempt to rush it and you are already sufficiently prepared for the upside... but you just want MOAR and MOAR and MOAR.  Think of all the peeps who don't even have a whole bitcoin.  The dumbasses who have known about bitcoin for a sufficient amount of time to acquire 1 BTC or 10BTC or even 100BTC without even putting much of a dent in their lifestyles, but they fail to get off of zero.... diptwats.... You are way the hell ahead of them, even if you are struggling to stack sats at a rate that you would like to achieve.

Seems to me that you are quite a bit ahead of a lot of people like that, and surely people who are older than you, do not have the luxury of your time horizon.  Seems to me that your time horizon is sufficiently long enough that you will end up getting the pay out and retiring way the fuck earlier than other people of your age.... Fuck that... It is difficult as fuck to stack wealth in your 20s 30s and 40s in order to be somewhat prepared by the time you are in your 50s... maybe even being prepared while you are in your early 40s. 

Seems to me that  we did not have these kinds of investment opportunities available 10 or 20 years ago, but they are only opportunities so long as you don't fuck it up with some kind of rushing into a position that becomes too much for you and does not sufficiently prepare you for the vast majority of scenarios, and ONLY YOU can figure out the specifics of that preparation and the risks that you are ready, willing and able to take.

And, surely one of the questions remains whether it is worth the effort to continue to just take more time to be almost guaranteed richie status rather than to rush the matter which gambles that you could become MOAR richie but then you could also end up losing some of your stash because you end up being over invested, so then part of the question FOR YOU specifically remains how much is that downside security worth to YOU?

[El duderino_]

New poll =

WO poster of the year, one vote per account.

MicG

There are no alternatives 😀

Wow woW not to much credit, most around maybe yes though some posting need some better content as well and as very good posters as for humor as for being on topic or given good advices and good stuff we should know, yeah then my vote would definitely be difficult as a few should earn my vote

[xhomerx10]

Any way, Christmas is over, let’s get back to doing what we do best......

Observing walls, checking the price too many times a day & dreaming of the MOON!

  I wish!

  Bought dad a 1TB SSD for Christmas to speed up his computer a bit ...

<snip>

Been there too, swapped parents spinning rust against SSDs, now they often think they forgot to shutdown because it boots so quick to login screen (Linux, as I have several medical certificates allowing me to stay clear of any MS products).

The best way to accelerate Windows is at escape velocity.

 I need to know where to get those medical certificates.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

<snip>

Wow woW not to much credit, most around maybe yes though some posting need some better content as well and as very good posters as for humor as for being on topic or given good advices and good stuff we should know, yeah then my vote would definitely be difficult as a few should earn my vote

You are doing more than okay brother.

JJG will get the prize for "Wall of text" 🤪

[JayJuanGee]

^
Pay your debts

Oh lol, I edited my post above, and already done  I see what you did now 

Edit: Merited you, thanks micgoossens for +2, though next time maybe just merit the user's post yourself 

I'm clearly not great at understanding economics 

Why? It benefits two posters right now

I already explained 

I'm clearly not great at understanding economics 

TA is voodoo, it NEVER works reliably. Economics of the process is what actually works.
BTW: in the hypothetical surrogate TA observation that temperature is lower in the winter than in the summer (in northern hemisphere) what is more important: the "TA" observation or the knowledge of orbital tilt and planet rotation around the star?

Ah fundamentals v TA. An argument as old as the hills. The challenge being that economics is not the dismal science, but rather no science at all. And there is no rational economic explanation for short term price perturbations. 

Think of it this way.  TA is the study of the psychology of price discovery.  TA is asking the question - what will the crowd do when X happens?  And how can you make the crowd do Y?

True story. That psychology of price discovery, unrelated to economics, is also the psychology of "human rationality" or more specifically "the herd".
Humans are far from rational, instead they act like most animals in a herd like mentality: they lack basic intelligence when panicked or feeling threatened.

I doubt that it is fair to assert that people are acting in a herd mentality merely because TA attempts to both describe and to predict their behavior in terms of what the masses of people are doing or likely to do. 

There is still individual deviation within the pattern that is attempted to be captured by TA, even if the TA has some predictive value and sometimes even very accurate predictive value for the masses, but not necessarily for the individual and does not necessarily take away the free will from the individual, even if the TA might suggest that the individual is engaging in dumbass behavior (or at least NOT as prosperous of a route) if s/he attempts to deviate from what the TA suggests.. which might also pay off from time to time, too.

There are also forces, including individual action(s) that will try with a lot of might to can fuck up the TA, and sometimes will be successful, and surely any TA that is worth any kind of salt will attempt to predict and prepare for deviations and destruction attempts, too.  Successfully?  Perhaps sometimes.  Surely some models are better than others and sometimes some models have to be thrown in the rubbish and some models merely can be tweaked in order to make better at both description and prediction.

[El duderino_]

<snip>

Wow woW not to much credit, most around maybe yes though some posting need some better content as well and as very good posters as for humor as for being on topic or given good advices and good stuff we should know, yeah then my vote would definitely be difficult as a few should earn my vote

You are doing more than okay brother.

JJG will get the prize for "Wall of text" 🤪

Thats a price for all over the forum not only at the WO

[JayJuanGee]

There is no such thing as being over invested in bitcoin. Pour all that filthy fiat into this imaginary digital gold token shit.

Nobody has ever gotten rich, from not taking any risk

Well, you are not "over-invested" until you are.  

I would rather NOT have to come across any kind of scenario that I am forced to sell my BTC at any time that is other than my choosing.  Surely, once your BTC become sufficiently profitable, then at that point, you don't really mind that you might have extra value in BTC.  

Let's say that you have $100k in BTC value and $8k in cash, but you unexpectedly run into an emergency expense that is around $20k.  BTC prices are in a dip, but you might be fucked because you are forced to sell off some BTC, at a time that is not of your own choosing, and worse if BTC is in a dip during that time, but surely better if your BTC are profitable rather than unprofitable when you are forced to sell some of them to cover your unexpected expense.  Then as soon as you sell to cover your expenses, BTC does a 3.5x in 3 months and during a period in which you don't have enough of a cash flow to replace any of the BTC that you had been forced to sell during the dip.  Sure would have been nice to have had other resources to draw from for that $20k expense, rather than having to draw from your BTC stash during an inopportune time, right?

Sure, my example might not be extreme enough, but you should be able to recognize what I am trying to say... you could end up getting wiped out of your BTC investment.

I have said, several times, that I had purposefully invested in BTC in a much higher than expected proportion than my comfort level (which is another way of saying overinvested) because I have wanted to feel a lot of comfortable in selling BTC on the way up.  That is part of the plan to be able to skim off a few BTC here and there on the way up, and in that way, I feel comfortable with my level of overinvested.

So, surely, overinvested is possible, and each of us has to determine what kinds of income/expenses s/he has going on in his/her life in order to figure out what kinds of resources that we are going to be able to draw from when some of the unexpected expenses might end up playing out at the most inopportune times.  Yeah, things are going all good and fine and thinking that we have cushions here, there and everywhere, and fucking bitcoin dips 50% and then 65% and then 85% and we thought that the bottom was in at 50%, and in the mean time, we have real world activities going on that could cause us to have some unexpected expenses taking place at the same time that BTC's price is dipping and at a time that we have already used up a large amount of any spare cashflow that we had in our sock drawer.. that is looking pretty sparse during those times of need.  Why the fuck do I have to pay that tax?  Why did they store gasoline in the closet?  why is my new lambo/leer jet parked in that location, and why wasn't the insurance up-to-date?  Fuck? Is the world against me, everything negative happening at the same time?  

Yeah, shit happens. Especially if you do not adequately pee pare ur lil selfie.   

[LUCKMCFLY]

The best signal for Bitcoin

The Most Lucrative Signal in Bitcoin History Just Flipped Buy https://libr.co/the-most-lucrative-signal-in-bitcoin-history-just-flipped-buy/

The tool has only given this buy signal just ten times in Bitcoin’s lifecycle, and the following uptrend has resulted in as much as 5,000% on average returns for investors.

Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1210713524693024768

The quote suggests that although market sentiment may be in the dumps after an extended downtrend, this often results in the best possible financial opportunity and is a strategy some of the most famous investors in the world have long sworn by.

Source: https://libr.co/the-most-lucrative-signal-in-bitcoin-history-just-flipped-buy/

[d_eddie]

So apparently, CSWcoin is going to hardfork in the near future. Said hardfork includes the fantastic idea of basically stealing people's unclaimed BTC, which means, if you didn't claim your BSV, those coins will be "confiscated" by CSW-Ayre's mining operation (which I presume are the only people mining the thing). This also includes that satoshi's "1 million" coins will be stolen. According to raw calculations, they'll get $85million. I mean, it's not a lot, but still, this has to be a joke right? am I taking crazy pills? How is people unironically supporting such thing at this point?

I assume most here didn't even bother claiming the coins. I mean, it's such a pain claiming a forked coins, you have to do much for so little, but I don't appreciate CSW getting free money, but still, I may just don't bother.

If this is not the case, correct me if im wrong on the whole thing, but that is what I extracted from what I've read.

Can you link to highlighted, please?
Apart from rumors, i haven' seen anything solid, as it would be very weird.

Gmaxwell did address this on bsv subreddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/bsv/comments/edr0av/massive_replay_theft_coming_to_a_scamchain_near/

And official bsv page says:

https://bitcoinsv.io/2019/12/23/bitcoin-sv-blocking-potential-p2sh-replay-attack-after-genesis-hard-fork/

Mitigation

In response, the Bitcoin SV Node team will update the “Genesis” hard fork specification by upgrading the rule rejecting the P2SH script pattern from a policy rule to a consensus rule.  That is the specific script template “OP_HASH160 <hash> OP_EQUAL” will not be allowed in new outputs and this rule will be directly implemented in the Bitcoin SV Node software.  Whilst unfortunate to restrict the usage of a particular script pattern, we note that the same effect can be achieved using variations of the script pattern e.g. “OP_SHA256 OP_RIPEMD160 <hash> OP_EQUAL”.

This change closes the attack vector and mitigates the need for honest miners to forcibly reject blocks containing theft transactions.  Whilst this could have triggered a valuable demonstration of the principle of honest miners acting punitively against dishonest miners, the public disclosure by Mr. Maxwell raises the potential cost to those miners to an unacceptable level.

Note: The theory is that it is argued if there were any "mistakes" here, and stealing funds was always part of the plan, they just got caught by gmaxwell.

I don't understand any of this.  I read the subreddit linked above.  Which coins might be stolen if the worst happens?  What does it mean for those of us who have bitcoins stored in segwit addresses and "compatibile" (starting with 3) addresses?

You can lose newly hardforked BSV. You would keep the "old" BSV, admitting there's any miner left at all on the old chain.

[JayJuanGee]

So apparently, CSWcoin is going to hardfork in the near future. Said hardfork includes the fantastic idea of basically stealing people's unclaimed BTC, which means, if you didn't claim your BSV, those coins will be "confiscated" by CSW-Ayre's mining operation (which I presume are the only people mining the thing). This also includes that satoshi's "1 million" coins will be stolen. According to raw calculations, they'll get $85million. I mean, it's not a lot, but still, this has to be a joke right? am I taking crazy pills? How is people unironically supporting such thing at this point?

I assume most here didn't even bother claiming the coins. I mean, it's such a pain claiming a forked coins, you have to do much for so little, but I don't appreciate CSW getting free money, but still, I may just don't bother.

If this is not the case, correct me if im wrong on the whole thing, but that is what I extracted from what I've read.

Can you link to highlighted, please?
Apart from rumors, i haven' seen anything solid, as it would be very weird.

Gmaxwell did address this on bsv subreddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/bsv/comments/edr0av/massive_replay_theft_coming_to_a_scamchain_near/

And official bsv page says:

https://bitcoinsv.io/2019/12/23/bitcoin-sv-blocking-potential-p2sh-replay-attack-after-genesis-hard-fork/

Mitigation

In response, the Bitcoin SV Node team will update the “Genesis” hard fork specification by upgrading the rule rejecting the P2SH script pattern from a policy rule to a consensus rule.  That is the specific script template “OP_HASH160 <hash> OP_EQUAL” will not be allowed in new outputs and this rule will be directly implemented in the Bitcoin SV Node software.  Whilst unfortunate to restrict the usage of a particular script pattern, we note that the same effect can be achieved using variations of the script pattern e.g. “OP_SHA256 OP_RIPEMD160 <hash> OP_EQUAL”.

This change closes the attack vector and mitigates the need for honest miners to forcibly reject blocks containing theft transactions.  Whilst this could have triggered a valuable demonstration of the principle of honest miners acting punitively against dishonest miners, the public disclosure by Mr. Maxwell raises the potential cost to those miners to an unacceptable level.

Note: The theory is that it is argued if there were any "mistakes" here, and stealing funds was always part of the plan, they just got caught by gmaxwell.

I don't understand any of this.  I read the subreddit linked above.  Which coins might be stolen if the worst happens?  What does it mean for those of us who have bitcoins stored in segwit addresses and "compatibile" (starting with 3) addresses?

It does not do anything to your coins.

They make a new fork (which is already a fork of a fork), and they say that all of the coins that have not moved in a certain amount of time in that new fork of a fork are their coins under that new fork. 

Does not affect the old forks such as bitcoin or bcash or even bcashsv, only the new forks that they create with the new rules which they want to supplant bcashsv... which they would also like to supplant bitcoin.. but all of that supplanting talk is just fantasyland ways to distract people into believing that they are genuine while they are busy printing money and hoping that the money that they print out of thin air retains value because dumb people buy into it in a sufficient enough way in order that they can sell some of their bags along the way.

[fillippone]

Here you go WO gang. Fillippone is being generous and fast depleting his merits stash:

[Merits Giveaway]2019 in review. A big thanks to many forum users

Of course also appreciated merits donations to the thread to be redistributed to the posters!

Almost 200 merits later still getting entries on this thread... sadly not many incoming merits (they might have spent all of them in the twin post by Hhampuz thread).
Running low on merits, it has been a while!
Come on WO gang! Show love to the Italian Stallion and give example to the other forum  members!

[mindrust]

The best signal for Bitcoin

The Most Lucrative Signal in Bitcoin History Just Flipped Buy https://libr.co/the-most-lucrative-signal-in-bitcoin-history-just-flipped-buy/

The tool has only given this buy signal just ten times in Bitcoin’s lifecycle, and the following uptrend has resulted in as much as 5,000% on average returns for investors.

Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1210713524693024768

The quote suggests that although market sentiment may be in the dumps after an extended downtrend, this often results in the best possible financial opportunity and is a strategy some of the most famous investors in the world have long sworn by.

Source: https://libr.co/the-most-lucrative-signal-in-bitcoin-history-just-flipped-buy/

Option 3 is gaining the upper hand.

[d_eddie]

mindrust, don't invest more than you're ready to lose.

Don't want to sound like a bear or a party poop as someone would say - I'm far from both positions as should be clear to anyone following this thread - but hard times do happen, it's best to be "pee pared" as the same someone would put it ;-)

TL;DR don't overdo it. DCA with the occasional BTFD spree is fine.

[Globb0]

[xhomerx10]

Along the lines of walls of text and over-investing...

 I have attempted to find Bitcoin addresses containing 10 letter words (after the initial 1) without regard for case (which makes it much easier) using a list of 22,399 words and the full processing capacity of my computer for 24 hours.  You'll be happy(er) to know, JJG, that I was able to find only one match from that entire list of words:

Pub Addr: 1ExeRcYCLeSxaZkCh7togWcSgcofRYVDLZ
Priv (WIF): L4o3NZYoSf6GVmLaxcaqtmunqiNBs77PNyANmpYtcL6r6dMtcCXb
Priv (HEX): 0xE202278FF792CE920126E8D3A2EE1483AB9FA00807B10B71EAACDAD1DD4D36E4

 and I believe that was mostly due to good luck.

 If I were to try for an exact case-sensitive match of 1ExercycLes (capital L because Bitcoin addresses can't use miniscule L capital I or Capital O) with random characters after it, I would need 2.4 years for a 50% chance of success.  ∴ your funds are SAFU.

 On a sad note, I will likely never find a 1JayJuanGee or a 1micgoossens address and a 1LastoftheV8s is just a pipe dream as I am dangerously close to the limit of my wife's generosity for tolerating computer upgrades for this decade.  (fortunately we start a new one soon!)

 I hate to disappoint Mr. MicG so this is for his reading pleasure:

Pub Addr: 1CLiMAXt43DiJBPT9z7YEppUS8ssPjjUNJ
Priv (WIF): L5BunfnNDEdWC9w4hzWmbHBrUzp44YEp51TPgr6XcHqerghUTKJc
Priv (HEX): 0xEDC5F18B29BDC350F02B9AB4BB067752AD07F944EE697824B5C13452B7769453

 I get those all day long with my current hardware. 

[mindrust]

mindrust, don't invest more than you're ready to lose.

Don't want to sound like a bear or a party poop as someone would say - I'm far from both positions as it should be clear to anyone following this thread - but hard times do happen, it's best to be "pee pared" as the same someone would put it ;-)

TL;DR don't overdo it. DCA with the occasional BTFD spree is fine.

I already invested more than I could afford to lose   (%25) Didn't cash out any. Not even my initial investment.

Ok ok I'll leave the red button alone. For now.

But the thought just doesn't go away  

[serveria.com]

Hey brothers!

Poster of the year: MicG for his fancy dinner pics and food porn and for being a great guy and a real hodler in general..
WOer of the year: Elwar for his crazy Thai adventure
Troll of the year: Gembitz for his WEEEEEEEE!  

Seasons greetings once again!  

[JayJuanGee]

<snip>

Wow woW not to much credit, most around maybe yes though some posting need some better content as well and as very good posters as for humor as for being on topic or given good advices and good stuff we should know, yeah then my vote would definitely be difficult as a few should earn my vote

You are doing more than okay brother.

JJG will get the prize for "Wall of text" 🤪

Thats a price for all over the forum not only at the WO

Nice that some peeps appear to be feeling thankful.....


You are welcome.  Just doing my lil part.  Or at least, trying.  

I should also say that I am thankful to many of the contributions of a variety of other members who point things out or even frame matters in ways that differ from my own thinking, yet my writings are frequently attempting to engage in learning and digesting bitcoin information (and sometimes other sometimes relevant crap), too.  

So attempting to continue to learn and to keep updated regarding ever-going happenings in the space..

Hopefully many of the most relevant happenings that come through this WO thread more than other places on the forum and surely frequently members here are pointing out great tweets, reddit threads, current articles, conferences and other current informational bitcoin-related content like that, too.

[Last of the V8s]

ExeRcYCLeS

das ist nyet ein verd gescnichtelmakensie

c'est at best ein portmanteau mais meh

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Just watching ‘Take Me Out’.

It’s a UK dating show.

Look what one of the girls is called, perfect for our very own.....

We all know he loves a woman of colour