Overall, you seem quite bearish on upside potentiality of bitcoin.
Yeah, right
you believe that gold has some kind of significant ability to absorb distressed value merely because it has financial vehicles already vastly in place and developed, but in the end, you really believe that such grandpa coin (referring to gold) is really going to appreciate in value beyond perhaps a 2x or a 3x in the coming years, even in the best of scenarios?
and the odds are decent too that we could also end up in a supra $150k territory in the same before the end of 2021 timeframe.
I would have to admit I've been way too pessimistic on alot of things over years especially in technology. I used some of the first versions of Windows and realised around 1990 it would be increasingly significant and profitable because it was so usable to the ordinary person in whatever trade, enabling utility far past specialists or specific training; I want BTC to be just the same way.
I understand that bitcoin has a technological component, but i don't really think of bitcoin as a technology.
I did recommend buying MSFT but I underestimated how great that growth might be personally or I'd profited instead of mostly just observing the transition, a relative did buy into a tech fund and gained well over 30 times their initial investment so at least someone was paying attention. I have tried to pay regular attention to markets ever since because its such a massive part of modern economies.
Surely there were tech companies that really took off in the 80s, 90s, 00s that were based on kinds of technologies, including microsoft.
Similarly I was user of SETI@home and PGP at the beginning of the century, I think Seti relates for its distributed workload and PGP obviously was something new and disruptive but I failed to recognise Bitcoin at first for its great potential to ordinary people in bringing them a significant change to their lives.
Fair enough that sometimes it might be difficult to recognize bitcoin for what it is offering ... I am thinking about the sound money and network effects components.
So again I was too pessimistic initially but now I do think Bitcoin can be useful across the world so long as its able to address ordinary people and give them utility unavailable elsewhere. FIAT has become unreliable and volatility will be a bull market.
Well at least you seem to recognize the BIG ass problem that bitcoin is attempting to address, and there is no real need for bitcoin to search for a niche... it already solves the problem.. it is just a matter of time for value to gravitate into it, unless something gets screwed up along the way, but in essence, seems to me that bitcoin is already functional in the direction that it needs to be, just a matter of time and passage through finding of value.. which is likely just going to take time in a kind of Lindy effect kind of way.. and a kind of gresham's law kind of way.
I've always liked technology but however great BTC or any other innovations might be, it wont be replacing gold in world economies.
It already is... just takes a while to build financialization, but in the smaller levels, individuals can already choose bitcoin over gold, and some institutions can too, but the institutions might not have as much flexibility in their abilities to add gold to their holdings... but more and more vehicles are coming available for, even institutions, to take a meaningful stake in bitcoin and to replace or at least compliment their gold holdings, and little by little the gold will play a smaller and smaller role in the holdings of institutions because bitcoin is already superior to gold.. and likely going to continue to be superior to gold.
I think they are on separate paths, both are required and that will increase but I dont see blockchains as replacing everything only 1 choice among many.
Maybe that is what is limiting you? I do agree that all value cannot flow into bitcoin, but there can be meaningful hedging... for example, real estate will still have a value.. it cannot be absorbed into bitcoin. Businesses will still have value..... currencies are likely going to lose a lot of their value to bitcoin because they are NOT going to be able to compete, but the gravitation of the value of currencies into bitcoin could take 50 to 100 years, even though the writing will likely be on the wall much sooner than 50 years and is already on the wall for those of us who can actually recognize the proposition, including the value storage roles of various pms including gold silver and some of the others that might have historically been used to store some value and to hedge. Of course, those PMs are not going to disappear, but they will likely go down in value rather than up relative to bitcoin... but could take a bit of time for that value migration to play out, too.
Obviously we are going to see governments continue to favour power they can control, first they will try to replace failed FIAT standards with new FIAT and then finally they might be forced to back money with an actual asset as it once was and its most likely going to be gold or similar.
They might try to play those kinds of hedging plays, but it is NOT likely going to work too well for them, but hey, both of us might be dead by the time any kind of bet would play out, and in the meantime I am placing my value into bitcoin and I think that others are going to follow... NOT because I am doing it, but merely because they are going to realize that bitcoin is the most sound of money, which is just a matter of the logic and the natural tendencies of gresham law to play out with the passage of time... and maybe even snowballing of consciousness to some extent, too... even though we are also likely to continue to experience plenty of ups and downs along the way, with the trajectory in bitcoin mostly being up, especially if you zoom out your ability to look at it on a longer time horizon.
It might be once again I'm not being optimistic enough to see a greater switch to technology but I expect commodities to form the backing to world trade for as long as I'm around.
Sure, you have to make your own choice concerning your level of allocation, and your comfort. NO need to rush in to something or to overallocate unless you are comfortable with your chosen level of allocation and hedging, whether that is 1% or 5% or 10% or some other amount that is comfortable for you. You are the master of your own allocation choices.
The digital information global economy does fit Bitcoin and
gold is fairly useless for a large part of the world because its so difficult and costly to handle for the common person who is not rich. I cannot see us going back to solid coin value in the main but I wont say that ceases, for a few maybe its best for them and/or their only option.
More and more people are able to get access to the internet, and sure as fuck bitcoin is way more portable than gold and less costly to store and much easier to verify that you are not receiving the wrong thing. Divisibility is easy as fuck, and there is little need to use a third party and bitcoin is becoming way more liquid... so I am not sure why anyone would chose gold over bitcoin, unless they already have a stash of gold and they already have systems in place in which they are comfortable, but even then, if I wanted to be able to send a decent amount of value more than $10k (and sometimes even smaller amounts than that can trigger "issues") why should I have to involve anyone else besides the recipient? Sometimes I might just be sending to myself, too, and do I really need to disclose or involve a third party? Of course, I can chose to do it with bitcoin, but it is much easier in bitcoin just to take care of the whole matter by myself (even though we are learning that being your own bank can have a lot of risks, too and even a learning curve, but expecting the user interface options to become more and more and more easy with the passage of time)....
BTC at $150k in the next 24 months would involve disorderly markets, I wouldn't bet against it but it means some larger failure is occuring.
I doubt that any failure would have to occur for bitcoin to have another price bubble like $150k, sure there is no way to figure out the exact range, but bitcoin is way easily prepared for that level of pricing in terms of its own security.. and it would not even take very much cash,... on a worldwide level to push it up to those levels, especially with so many damned HODLers just choosing NOT to participate with decent proportions of their BTC Holdings
We dont get to see only sunshine, if theres a rainbow it'll have also involved a storm imo.
Of course, nothing goes straight up, including bitcoin, and sure there is no guarantee for any price bubble in the next 24 months like you said... it could take an additional 48months, and that would be 72 months... and even that is not guaranteed. All kinds of less bullish scenarios could play out, but that does not mean that the more bullish scenario of $100k to $200k (or some other variation) is not reasonably probable.. even if it is only 30% probable, it might be amongst the most probable of scenarios in the next 24 months or so, even with a 30% or less assignment of likelihood.
I dont see the greater price changes occurring for BTC or any asset without similar movement in the world and many asset prices and especially commodities every country is a user of.
I personally doubt that the "world" needs to go through some weird-ass adjustments in order for bitcoin to have its next upward movement. The world did not drastically change during the 2017 bubble, and sure there were some weird ass things going on for people paying attention to have noticed, but for some other people, they might have hardly even have known that bitcoin had such a price surge of about 78x between 2015 and 2017. For those people, the world hardly changed at all. They are going on with their lives (whatever they do) with a business as usual perspective, and their lives hardly changed at all merely because some computer nerds (or other pie in the sky holders of BTC) went from rags to riches in less than 2 years. Unless some of these folks bought lambos, hookers and/or blow, some people might not have even noticed that the networth of a less than 1% group of people went up exorbitantly in a short period of time. Sure there are some that showed it off, but there are many who did not show it off in any kind of meaningful way, too.
I think price changes in a market can be like pushing on string, it doesnt do what anybody wants or expects but I do hope BTC is a large part of ensuring competitive markets succeed where political fixed prices fail to serve capitalism.
I am not going to disagree with that statement, but still we have bitcoin as a paradigm shifting phenomenon, even though it might be difficult to see, and there are extended periods of BTC prices moving down and FUD spreading and even naysaying during a 78x price increase, and similar things might happen again... naysaying and fud and hard to realize 3x and then 5x and then 12x and the Xs just multiply and pretty soon you have some BIGASS
X that was way the hell BIGGER than anticipated... Happened before, several times in bitcoin, and surely is possible to happen again... NOT guaranteed, but surely within reasonable realms of possibility... .whether 30% or 20% or some other number that is reasonably possible.. if NOT amongst the most probable of possibilities, like I already mentioned.
Yeah right.
Goldbugs have been fantasizing about 3x to 5x increases in gold for years and years and years, and seems like pie in the sky to me. You can follow gold bugs like rickards or roach or even richard heart or roger ver... who the fuck cares, if the shit might have some pumpening potential... or various talking points. That is your choice if you want to diversify your holdings with nonsense... maybe you will get lucky, and maybe you will not... I think bitcoin has much better chances, but whatever, reasonable minds can differ.
I only form my opinions by judging what I read and what seems fair in open markets and I generally agree thats a feasible scenario.
Of course. Fair enough that you chose what information and scenarios you believe to be the more reasonable. Good for you.
Of course, this is a bitcoin thread, but if you are offsetting your bitcoin because of your gold bullishness then that surely is on you, and you might end up being correct. I doubt it, but hey, you are surely entitled to make those kinds of allocation weighting choices.
I think its a reasonable target but the price doesnt matter, all that matters is effectiveness of the product to allow an honest working citizen to pay their bills from their wages and save reliably value they have earnt.
Huh? You are talking about gold? Of course, no matter how you allocate your investments, you need to be able to pay your expenses and surely hope that your choices hold value well so that after you are done stacking your wealth then you get to a stage of spending the wealth, you want the wealth to have retained a decent amount of its value and hopefully even appreciated in value through the years rather than losing value or just being stagnant. Of course, there are going to be better performing assets than others, and in that regard, we cannot necessarily know at time 1 what are going to be the better assets at time 1 + 10 or 20 years. So, yeah, there is some justification to diversify in order to hopefully have a portfolio set that gives a great return, whatever is the timeline whether it is 10 or 20 years or some other amount of time.
Capitalism must serve society or it has no purpose, we dont have capitalism we have a centralised system which is the opposite so whatever the FED is doing now is going to end in unreliability which is a betrayal of those who backed and paid for its existence.
Yeah, of course, both gold and bitcoin attempt to hedge regarding those macro irresponsibility concepts.
Volcker passed away before Xmas sadly, if anyone remembers his tenure it was a hell of a long time ago both in time and distance policy has fallen.
Sometimes policies will revert back to earlier times, but surely a consideration would still be whether any such reversion, if it were to happen, would be enough, and what are good hedges? I really doubt that gold would be serving any purpose that is beyond bitcoin, but I cannot really fault some people who chose to have some value in gold, I, personally, believe it is not necessary to hold much if any gold because I believe that bitcoin sufficiently hedges in that direction.
BTC since December 18th low has been lower volume. Its not closed below 7150 since, with the 50 day average converging and marking the top price on Sunday. If it can keep the same low it might reattempt a break of the 50DMA. Otherwise it needs to stay above 7000 to remain as positive ongoing.
I don't know if it needs to do anything in the short term. Of course, we are still within reasonable striking distance of the $6,425 (which is the 12/18 low that you refer to). Bitcoin could go below that number, but so what? In the end, we still seem to be going up? Do you believe that the $4,200 price of April 1 is in jeopardy? Even that is possible, but even if something like that might signify that this flat period might drag out longer than expected, we are still going to have some decently hard reduction of new supply in May 2020... So it seems that it would be quite difficult to keep BTC prices down during such close proximity to the halvening.. though anything remains within the realm of possibilities. Seems more prudent to be preparing for BTC up rather than down, but hey folks going to do what they are going to do... and going to worry about our current nearly 2x for the year as being too many lows, merely because we had a 3.5x price rise in the middle of the year and a subsequent correction to ONLY a mere 2x for the year... woe is me. and woe is bitcoin for only having a 2x for 2019 (at least as I type)..
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