Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Does this look like someone fighting a virus?

TBH, the way these guys wear their masks looks more like inviting a virus 

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[bitserve]

Don't you have a nice house? I guess you have. Invite your friend and order the best mexican food available. Problem solved.

Don't order anything what kind of an advice is this!?!?

Don't interact with anybody!

And I am saying this as someone who sees more than 100 different people everyday. If that shit spreads here I am done.

You saying this because the alternative is better?!?!

I was just trying to adapt to the mexican food requirement. Of course it is better if they just invite their friend to some things they already have in house or cook themselves, but I guess that's just going too far into paranoia (at this stage).

Just trying to raise awareness.

This shit is serious. I didn't care about it much tbh till yesterday. Now the more I read about it makes me even more sicker than selling the bottom.

Raising awareness is good, but risks are always there. We always have a probability to simply die in the next few seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years, decades... A different probability for each of those, and depending on circumstances either internal or external for each individual. We need to be aware of that and act according to it. Disproportionally reacting to those probabilities is never good nor logical.

That being said, yes, the situation is that world is facing a worldwide crisis in ways beyond just a financial one. The Italy example is perfect to know where we are all going... yeah, all developed countries. We were wondering what was wrong with Italy... and just a few days/weeks after we are at the same stage they were. Some countries are still in denial but they are raising awareness even if slowly.

But no, we are not all going to die. This shit will pass. You just need to adapt, neither ignore nor overreact. Otherwise we maybe should consider directly ending our own lifes to avoid being infected... which would be kind of stupid.

And if shit REALLY hits the fan... well.. it will also pass, the only difference is that all of our current first world "worries" will be all gone. Some will die, some will live. But life will go on.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@mindrust

You don’t need to go anywhere. Just put on your big boy pants & buy back at least half of what you sold. We all make mistakes.

I’ve spent over £60,000 on bitcoin in the last 12 months. If I spent that money when I first knew about bitcoin I’d have thousands of coins, I’d be a whale (I don’t & I’m not).

You have to make the best of any situation you’re in. You fucked up, admit it & buy back. Have a really nice holiday & do something with the rest of the fiat but buy back some at least.

[Elwar]

So I guess we have a day or so to find out if we have a dead cat bounce or a double bottom. Either way, the price will likely go down a bit.

[fillippone]

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Just trying to raise awareness.

This shit is serious. I didn't care about it much tbh till yesterday. Now the more I read about it makes me even more sicker than selling the bottom.

No you are not.

You are just having a really bad day.
Your judgement is off by orders of magnitude.

Oh, and grow a set, will ya?

Guys I have been telling you since weeks, but I will reiterate again.

I will use Italian numbers, adjust downwards by the percentage you think it is correct because Italian population is old, Italians are not good at hospital or whatever reason you think it is correct, but the final reasoning do not change much:


As of today:

Code:

TOTAL INFECTED  17660  
DEATHS          1266   7.17%
RECOVERED       1439   
TOTAL POSITIVE  14955  
HOSPITALISED    7426   50%
ICU             1328   9%
RECOVERED       1439   

 
Basically,
if you are infected, you will need hospitalisation in the 50% of times.
If you are in hospital, you will end up in ICU one time in 5.

So think about how many ICU your local has available. 
In northern Italy we are way above the national average  concerning hospital.

Yo give you context, this is the number of hospital bed per  1000 persons around the world:





Hospital are now running at full capacity.
May regions have no more ICU available.
First comes, first serve, is not a valid criteria to be cured, but they apply a sort of "survival probability assessment to determine to let you utilise a precious ICU bed.
Like in war times.

Bear in mind also that hospital usually are used by the whole community, so they are not used for COVID only, and there other things to care about.

COVID and related security procedures are slowing down every other hospital function (regular medic assessment, dialysis, transplant etc).

Basically: you don't want to be around an hospital to avoid infection
You don't want to be in an hospital, for a totally random reason (car accident/stroke/whatever reason) and in need of an ICU as they are all taken by COVID patient).
This is also why I you must be very careful selecting what to do in your free time (no bike rides, no paragliding, no DIY etc).
Also bear in mind it will take longer for emergency teams to rescue you, as they are already at full capacity for COVID patient.

Of course if an hospital has to select who cure, they will give priority to younger subject, where survival probability is higher,  so the other subject is probably not going to survive (this is already happening here in Italy).

Wherever you live, act as the disease were already there.
Incubation period is 14 days and most countries are 10 days behind Italy.
This means probably the disease is actually ALREADY there.

I know I already wrote a very similar message, but this is my experience.
I think it is wise to share it with as many people as possible.
Don't wait for government to act in your place.
Act now by yourself.

EDIT:
Found an Image, it is in Italian but shows the difference between ICU hospitalised patient of the regular FLU plotted against the ones of COVID-19.



Do you understand why it is so dangerous?

EDIT2:
Exponential growth and epidemics by 3Brown1Blue
https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

[OutOfMemory]

Raising awareness is good, but risks are always there. We always have a probability to simply die in the next few seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years, decades... A different probability for each of those, and depending on circumstances either internal or external for each individual. We need to be aware of that and act according to it. Disproportionally reacting to those probabilities is never good nor logical.

That being said, yes, the situation is that world is facing a worldwide crisis in ways beyond just a financial one. The Italy example is perfect to know where we are all going... yeah, all developed countries. We were wondering what was wrong with Italy... and just a few days/weeks after we are at the same stage they were. Some countries are still in denial but they are raising awareness even if slowly.

But no, we are not all going to die. This shit will pass. You just need to adapt, neither ignore nor overreact. Otherwise we maybe should consider directly ending our own lifes to avoid being infected... which would be kind of stupid.

And if shit REALLY hits the fan... well.. it will also pass, the only difference is that all of our current first world "worries" will be all gone. Some will die, some will live. But life will go on.

Seconded.
On the other hand, most of us drive cars in public traffic, every day. Accidents at speeds above 30mph are potentially lethal. Additionally, most people i know that passed actually died in cars. Not from cancer, a flu or violence, nope. Car accidents. We risk our life every day. Second: Drugs. Not the nice ones, but mostly pharma stuff combined with other deadly drugs like opiates or alcohol. When you look at causes of death, ranked by occurances, and compare that with what most people fear to die of, it will leave you wondering (at least).

Set your limits, establish hygiene and prophylactic routines, stick to them no matter what. It gives you a feeling of (self)control and this is the foundation to stay clear and focused in times of trouble. Don't think ahead too much, but rather trust in yourself to handle the current situation in the best possible way, whichever and whenever it may occur. Always try to know what to do. It's the opposite of panicking.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and watch "Zombieland" both parts. It's just a horror-comedy movie, but it teaches the viewer about the benefits of developing rules and stick to them to stay alive. No need for developing compulsive strategies, though.

[Cryptotourist]

I'll go away if that's going to make you feel better.

Hell no, we lost a WO member last night, I'm mourning.

But before... I'll leave this here.

Coronavirus deaths in Italy rise to 1,266 - up 250 in a day

I'll get back to you in a month or two about this one.

I was talking about recession, pandemic, global market crash combined. Did it happen before? Did I miss it? Don't think so.

You can fool a person so many times.

Good night, I am off.

Finally. Good night to you too.
Come back when you feel better.

[Gyrsur]

just came back from the future. already have bought a castle and an island with BTCitcoin. did anything important happened?  

what happened to user "mindrust"? he was a good TA guy too.

[gentlemand]

So I guess we have a day or so to find out if we have a dead cat bounce or a double bottom. Either way, the price will likely go down a bit.

Unless you're buying or have urgent financial need and have to sell or spend I'm not really sure why anyone's bothering to pay attention to the price. It's going to be all over the place for the next 2-3 months at a bare minimum with little relation to fundamentals, reality or anything else one can whip up.

It's like worrying about your hairdo after you've been beheaded and the basket that caught your head is on fire.

[Gyrsur]

just came back from the future. already have bought a castle and an island with BTCitcoin. did anything important happened?  

 Am I still "Extremely Cool Dude and Benevolent Ruler of Madagascar" in your timeline ?

"Extremely Cool Dude" ✅

"Benevolent Ruler of Madagascar Seychelles" ✅

[OutOfMemory]

So I guess we have a day or so to find out if we have a dead cat bounce or a double bottom. Either way, the price will likely go down a bit.

Unless you're buying or have urgent financial need and have to sell or spend I'm not really sure why anyone's bothering to pay attention to the price. It's going to be all over the place for the next 2-3 months at a bare minimum with little relation to fundamentals, reality or anything else one can whip up.

It's like worrying about your hairdo after you've been beheaded and the basket that caught your head is on fire.

Merited for repeatedly giving me the best laughs on the interweb.

....

Yesterday we closed the border to italy. Unilaterally, like i'd expect from our snoddy, arrogant chancellor.
I heard rumors about traffic jams all the way down to Udine. Can't verify, but sounds a bit too extreme to me.
Finally, people here are starting to grasp the situation. Schools were planned to close next wednesday, today the government preponed that to monday.
Infection hotspots in Tyrol were put under quarantine. All shops closed from monday, except gas stations, pharmacies, food stores and the likes. Worried people starting to run hospitals and doctors, because the covid hotline is overloaded.
we're about two weeks behind, with only 2 dead (afaik), about 450 proven infected now. Was 202 two days ago.
I don't have to tell you what that means.

So does anybody think i'd care about the price of bitcoin?

[Elwar]

So I guess we have a day or so to find out if we have a dead cat bounce or a double bottom. Either way, the price will likely go down a bit.

Unless you're buying or have urgent financial need and have to sell or spend I'm not really sure why anyone's bothering to pay attention to the price. It's going to be all over the place for the next 2-3 months at a bare minimum with little relation to fundamentals, reality or anything else one can whip up.

It's like worrying about your hairdo after you've been beheaded and the basket that caught your head is on fire.

Yes, I'm not worried too much. Even if it's a dead cat bounce I know it will come back up. I'd just rather not have to wait yet another year for the price to get back up in the 5 figures.

In the meantime I am copyrighting the Vegeta meme and will be making most of my money based off of that.

[Torque]

Guys I have been telling you since weeks, but I will reiterate again.

I will use Italian numbers, adjust downwards by the percentage you think it is correct because Italian population is old, Italians are not good at hospital or whatever reason you think it is correct, but the final reasoning do not change much:


As of today:

Code:

TOTAL INFECTED  17660  
DEATHS          1266   7.17%
RECOVERED       1439   
TOTAL POSITIVE  14955  
HOSPITALISED    7426   50%
ICU             1328   9%
RECOVERED       1439   

Here's the estimated worldwide numbers for the regular flu virus from October to today:

[Cryptotourist]

@fillippone, I agree that most are infected, or will get infected.
I also agree that hospitals will be overwhelmed temporally.
Some people are going to die, pretty much as they die for a shit-ton of reasons every day.

I'm not trying to undermine the situation in your country, nor any other country for that matter.
But Italy has me baffled more than any other country so far. And we do have similar weather.

Keep updating us please. You must see signs of improvement very very soon.

[fillippone]

Guys I have been telling you since weeks, but I will reiterate again.

I will use Italian numbers, adjust downwards by the percentage you think it is correct because Italian population is old, Italians are not good at hospital or whatever reason you think it is correct, but the final reasoning do not change much:


As of today:

Code:

TOTAL INFECTED  17660  
DEATHS          1266   7.17%
RECOVERED       1439   
TOTAL POSITIVE  14955  
HOSPITALISED    7426   50%
ICU             1328   9%
RECOVERED       1439   

Here's the estimated worldwide numbers for the regular flu virus from October to today:

So you agree with me:

Flu has a way lower mortality rate and hospitalisation rate.
Do the math with 35,000,000 million people infected.
Angela Merkel said two days ago they estimate 70% potential infection rate in Germany without taking countnermeasures.
Italian hospital are NOW at full capacity.
Never heard of any hospital being at full capacity for the flu.

EDIT:
Found an Image, it is in Italian but shows the difference between ICU hospitalised patient of the regular FLU plotted against the ones of COVID-19.



Do you understand why it is so dangerous?

[El duderino_]

Where we going at  

I dunno, brother. All I know is Rick wants to go out for TexMex tonight with a friend that is in town. I don't feel like driving downtown in my baby, parking at his office, and having the chance of our Uber driver being all coughing and sneezing.

Probably just drive ourselves to the restaurant, and ditch the Uber; end up in a restaurant filled with coughing people eating tacos with hot-sauce, sneezing pico de gallo everywhere.

Sheeit.

I picked a bad time to have anxiety/depression.

"State of Emergency" declared in Dallas County, Gov. Abbott declares "State of Disaster" for Texas, and Rick wants fucking TexMex.

Just...

Better as here brother... I almost eat out every day, tonight at 12 resto’s close for 3 weeks.... luckily I met someone amazing 

[Cryptotourist]

Shit Mode: ON

Phone rings in the middle of the night,

T- Hello, this is the Hanks residence.
D- This your prime minister.
T- Who?
D- Not WHO, your sugar daddy, Donald.
T- Oh hi daddy.
D- Tell the wife and the kids not to go public that the flu is a hoax. We have to sell the story among other things.
T- But but, I'm fine.
D- You won't be if you carry on like this.
T- Noted, will do.
D- Thanks, my kisses to Rita.

[Ibian]

I realize now, that not everybody is meant to get filthy rich. You have to be willing to loose it all first.

So it is and ever was. Even all the way back in tribal times, the hunters and warriors were risking their life every day, but they also got the greatest glory and the most women and offspring. Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

[Globb0]

Where we going at  

I dunno, brother. All I know is Rick wants to go out for TexMex tonight with a friend that is in town. I don't feel like driving downtown in my baby, parking at his office, and having the chance of our Uber driver being all coughing and sneezing.

Probably just drive ourselves to the restaurant, and ditch the Uber; end up in a restaurant filled with coughing people eating tacos with hot-sauce, sneezing pico de gallo everywhere.

Sheeit.

I picked a bad time to have anxiety/depression.

"State of Emergency" declared in Dallas County, Gov. Abbott declares "State of Disaster" for Texas, and Rick wants fucking TexMex.

Just...

if your last post was true, losing several millions in this turmoil, why make your partner work at all?

[Cryptotourist]

So it is and ever was. Even all the way back in tribal times, the hunters and warriors were risking their life every day, but they also got the greatest glory and the most women and offspring. Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

See?
Sometimes you are not that bad.
You CAN BE a better pickle.