Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nutildah]

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between the lo and hi values.

I'll go first.

In 1 week (3/23): $3,500 - $6,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000

Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*

*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).

**shit, I just realized this is more like a 60% confidence, especially the year figures. oh well, balls to the wall, the penalty for being wrong is pretty non-existent.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between those 2 values.

I'll go first.

In 1 week (3/23): $3,500 - $6,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000

Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*

*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).

In 1 week (3/23): $5,500 - $5,750
In 1 month (4/16): $6,500 - $6,750
In 3 months (6/16): $8,500 - $8,750
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $20,000 - $25,000

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between those 2 values.

I'll go first.

In 1 week (3/23): $3,500 - $6,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000

Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*

*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).

In 1 week (3/23): $5,500 - $5,750
In 1 month (4/16): $6,500 - $6,750
In 3 months (6/16): $8,500 - $8,750
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $20,000 - $25,000

O.k.  what the fuck. I will do it.  

It's a reasonable mental exercise, and fuck you guys... I am going to estimate with something in the 99% thinking arena, not some pie in the sky 70% numbers or some other gambling numbers that I have already seen in the so far two above attached submissions.

In 1 week (3/23): $2,100 - $10,970
In 1 month (4/16): $1,500 - $12,970
In 3 months (6/16): $2,500 - $17,250
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $4,600 - $150,000

[Ibian]

Don't think you know better
You don't. Nobody does.

You are not keeping yourself informed - perhaps deliberately so - and are projecting that unto others.

I had a 5 hour ride home from the airport yesterday. I spent the entire time studying up on the pandemic. I was not done by the time I got home, have an even bigger backlog now that I had some sleep.

I told my parents to stock up a week before they finally listened. 2 days after they finally got around to it, everyone else did. All at once. Stores now have guards that only let a handful of people in at a time.

I am better informed on Corona than my parents. They are better informed than most people thanks to me. You, are afraid. And you should be, because this is a global pandemic of still unknown lethality that can not be avoided.

What you need to do is get the hell over it. Problems don't go away just by ignoring them, much less by ridiculing those who are actually trying to do something constructive about it. Read, listen to people who know more than you, weep if that makes you feel better. But stop pointing and laughing. You are ultimately only hurting people, even if only yourself.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Fucking hell JJG, talk about keeping your options open

[JayJuanGee]

Fucking hell JJG, talk about keeping your options open

Hey... we gotta be realistic.. what is the most fucking extreme on each end that only has less than of 1% of going past those numbers.

Both you and Nutildah are trying to be like nostradamus, and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.  

O.k.  Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.

I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.

Edit:
Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.

[BitcoinBunny]

n 1 week (3/23): $2,750 - $3,500
In 1 month (4/16): $5,500 - $6,500
In 3 months (6/16): $7,000 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $14,000 - $18,000

[Majormax]

1 week   2500-5500
1 month  1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year    1200-13500

[Majormax]

Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.

As above..and here

1 week   2500-5500
1 month  1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year    1200-13500

[Majormax]

... and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.  

O.k.  Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.

I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.

Good thinking.

The ranges would surely get wider , both ends, with each longer time frame, otherwise it's like saying '99%' we go above x or below x , by <date>

[JayJuanGee]

Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.

As above..and here

1 week   2500-5500
1 month  1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year    1200-13500

Surely, a bit bearish, but not outrageous.  And, perhaps only marginally challenging the validity of the stock to flow model and the four year fractal price prediction models.

... and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.  

O.k.  Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.

I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.

Good thinking.

The ranges would surely get wider , both ends, with each longer time frame, otherwise it's like saying '99%' we go above x or below x , by <date>

Surely, my thinking too.. about the range almost having to get wider with the passage of time, and of course, there could be some compelling cases that could cause them to go in a certain direction as well or to gravitate towards a kind of price point and maybe could be some unique circumstances to cause them to narrow that do not really seem to be present or compelling in the case of bitcoin.

[Biro Bob]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exclusive-fed-is-throwing-money-in-the-wrong-place-says-sheila-bair-former-top-banking-regulator-2020-03-15

“Forget this 2008 financial crisis playbook,” Bair said. “We never focused enough on the real problem in 2008, which was homeowners,” she said, adding that she “loves the idea” of recent proposals that aim to get cash straight into the hands of households who are grappling with shuttered schools, businesses and more.

I'm sure this money will find its way into the "right" pockets, no doubt.....

Sad but true.

[serveria.com]

Fuck these 10% dumps... 

[John Abraham]

In 1 week (3/23): $2,100 - $10,970
In 1 month (4/16): $1,500 - $12,970
In 3 months (6/16): $2,500 - $17,250
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $4,600 - $150,000

I liked your confidence. If it happens in 1 year, I may get a lamboo  

Lemme in.
In 1 week (3/23): $4,000 - $5,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $10,000
In 3 months (6/16): $5,000 - $20,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $5,000 - $30,000

Above $30k is somewhat a dream unless we got some huge adoption IRL, like, wherever you travel, you can have a coffee with BTC. No matter if it's in Antarctica or Sahara Desert. I never invest with the thought of BTC above $30k, well, $30k would be more than a heaven for me. Credit goes to Wall Observer.

Fuck these 10% dumps... 

Fuck I don't have fiat to invest at the moment.

[eddie13]

I told my parents to stock up a week before they finally listened.

Only 1 week?

I have been talking to people since January about this, but they all just blow it off, that is, untill they see it on facebook, then the normies believe it, like fools..

One person that visits me almost daily completely blew it off until he saw a video from that doctor in china who whistleblew about it then died from it, remember that guy..
He comes to me and shows me that video on FB and was finally talking seriously about stocking up.. I told him "Dude, look at the date on that video! That was a month ago! LOL" and laughed at him..  
Just one example of those who dismiss concern until it hits the mainstream..

I have been telling my mom and grandmother, in a soft way, about it for just as long.. They stocked up pretty good a couple weeks ago, a bit earlier than most, and now are glad they did..

I myself didn't really fill my kitchen until just recently, but I am a bit of a hoarder of tools and equipment, including a lot of "prepper" type useful things, and I am extremely mechanically handy, so I am confident that I can make shit happen in a pinch when needed..


Where I live, the greatest danger I perceive is winter.. The loss of the ability to heat homes here is absolutely life threatening..
Some essential preps in my mind are designated chainsaw gasoline and 2 smoke oil for emergency heating.. My families houses that are not already wood het, each have woodstoves on standby that can be quickly installed in a pinch, though we would most likely consolidate to 1 or 2 houses for all of us in that serious of a situation..  

But right now we are coming out of winter, only about a foot of solid snow left on the level in average in my yard now, and much of the most frigid temperatures have probably passed, so societal collapse is much less scary knowing we are coming into summer rather than going into the winter.. So that is a relief..  

If shit goes bad soon, we will have all summer to prepare for the coming winter, you know, if like roads become actually impassable if the plows stop, electricity goes out, propane deliveries cannot be made, it will happen in time to be thoroughly prepared to really get independently sustainable for the next coming winter..
Actually, my area is famous for the amount of snow we get, but also the most beautiful summers on the planet..

When we first bought my families main property here, we lived there in the woods for almost 3 full years before we even got a well, septic, and electricity installed, so we kinda know what we are doing if we need to rough it for awhile.. BTDT
The good old days of melting snow in a washtub over a bonfire to use for showers..

The virus could knock a few of us out, but we are pretty hardy people if it seriously comes down to survival..

I think I will either die from the virus, or not.. That is something I believe is out of my control..
Surviving possible societal collapse on the other hand.. Game on..

The closest "potential exposure site" from me is 150 miles away, so I guess I am in a pretty good geographical location..
Their is a case of a person from only 1 county away, but that person got quarantined coming back into the country a long way from here at a major airport far south, and never made it back up here to spread it..

But who knows.. With a potential unsymptomatic incubation period while contagious of 2 weeks +-, we could all already have it..

[serveria.com]

If any any of you WOers consider selling just think: you HODLed during $20k peak, during $14k and $10k minipeaks. So why sell now?    Let's ride this thing down to 0 or get filthy rich. There is no 3rd option.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Ouch

[Biro Bob]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

500%-1000% from 1k? Entirely possible. 1000% from 2k (new ATH)? Unlikely. I am inclined to think that the all-time bitcoin bull market is over and we will see sideways trend for many years. Next (2024) halving may push the price up a bit, however.

Now that sounds like desperation. And I like it.

Nothing brings us back to reality better than a good kick in the nuts.

I prefer less painful ways of bringing me back to reality.

[mindrust]

Music is fading away

[eddie13]

Fuck these 10% dumps... 

BTC is proving to be a pretty shitty prep isn't it..

My hope is that the normie markets will run out of BTCs to dump to try to save their liquidity asses, and then it will only be able to go up from there..