Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

Honestly we could see a $24 BTC tomorrow, we could also see a $24k BTC tomorrow, and I tend to believe there's at least a 99% chance we will see something in between. The good news is the one thing we know for sure is that nobody actually knows what the future holds, so we can safely dismiss those who claim otherwise.

"Everybody is right given a long enough time frame." - me

I know what the future holds and that is expanding credit, therefore expanding money supply, and therefore expanding economy. Only way this doesn't happen is if we change how our monetary system operates. While there is a chance that will happen it is extremely improbable to the point that it that we can safely say it won't happen.

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[Majormax]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

Yeah could very well do. Long-term of course it doesn't matter, the virus will eventually peak and so will the panic. The FED will do more than it is doing creating a shitload of liquidity in the process. Once the weights on global demand are lifted, assets will go up again and this time harder than after 2008 due to the much large central bank money being printed.

Throughout history, every bust has been followed by a bigger boom, this one will be no different.

Probably , yes...but this time is very different from anything that went before, so I would not be certain.

It is very early in this downwave, and there is no precedent to guide action.

[hv_]

The FED literally has no dry powder left.

It has plenty, but not without consequences.

The financial markets crashing touch one of the twin pillars (asset values).

Further steps will scratch the other twin pillar: treasuries/the dollar.

This pillar is the linchpin. Watch it the coming months to see whether all will fall down or this will have been another one of those ‘once a decade’ buying opportunities.

I agree with Wekkel here. The FED have unlimited firepower, don't underestimate them. Also don't watch the equity markets for when the FED pulls the trigger. They couldn't care less about that at the moment. Their focus is on the credit markets, they must absolutely not have a continuing credit freeze, and I can assure you the have the ability to fight it.

They can buy a lot of debt, government, corporate, even individual. And if liquidity issues persists they will continue doing whatever it takes.

not infinite - this will cause next hyper inflation and usd gonna be rekt after. but true, before there will be a price dump - er its happening

[JayJuanGee]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

You appear to have a lot of hopium, at the moment.

Hopefully, (speaking of hopium) for your own good, you are prepared ur lil selfie for either direction, and not just one direction.

[somac.]

The FED literally has no dry powder left.

It has plenty, but not without consequences.

The financial markets crashing touch one of the twin pillars (asset values).

Further steps will scratch the other twin pillar: treasuries/the dollar.

This pillar is the linchpin. Watch it the coming months to see whether all will fall down or this will have been another one of those ‘once a decade’ buying opportunities.

I agree with Wekkel here. The FED have unlimited firepower, don't underestimate them. Also don't watch the equity markets for when the FED pulls the trigger. They couldn't care less about that at the moment. Their focus is on the credit markets, they must absolutely not have a continuing credit freeze, and I can assure you the have the ability to fight it.

They can buy a lot of debt, government, corporate, even individual. And if liquidity issues persists they will continue doing whatever it takes.

not infinite - this will cause next hyper inflation and usd gonna be rekt after. but true, before there will be a price dump - er its happening

Yes in the end it leads to hyperinflation.

[Majormax]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

Honestly we could see a $24 BTC tomorrow, we could also see a $24k BTC tomorrow, and I tend to believe there's at least a 99% chance we will see something in between. The good news is the one thing we know for sure is that nobody actually knows what the future holds, so we can safely dismiss those who claim otherwise.

"Everybody is right given a long enough time frame." - me

I would say better than 99% chance between those 2 values ! In fact , I would say *Certain*.  Going a month into the future, 99%.

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

[bitebits]

The price will be tied to the (stock) market panic for a while, it seems.

The difference is that Bitcoin is already near its bottom price. No Nanny holding its hand. No regulations forcing someone to hold or sell.

Don’t you love free markets at work?

Yes, I love it. As soon as anyone starts to pull Bitcoin’s levers to ease the pain I am out. Until then I just hold and maybe buy a couple more. Easy.

[Alexander_Z]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

500%-1000% from 1k? Entirely possible. 1000% from 2k (new ATH)? Unlikely. I am inclined to think that the all-time bitcoin bull market is over and we will see sideways trend for many years. Next (2024) halving may push the price up a bit, however.

[Wekkel]

Honestly it looks like 3.5k is almost a sure thing now, lower high after lower high, the question now is do we see a lower low compared to January 2019 (3k)?
I tend to believe it is entirely possible. We will definitely see 6.5k again but probably not this year.

Even 1k-2k area is something we could see again. The good news is there will be another bubble in the future. Nothing better than Bitcoin to make 500%-1000% profits.

500%-1000% from 1k? Entirely possible. 1000% from 2k (new ATH)? Unlikely. I am inclined to think that the all-time bitcoin bull market is over and we will see sideways trend for many years. Next (2024) halving may push the price up a bit, however.

Now that sounds like desperation. And I like it.

Nothing brings us back to reality better than a good kick in the nuts.

[nutildah]

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between the lo and hi values.

I'll go first.

In 1 week (3/23): $3,500 - $6,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000

Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*

*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).

**shit, I just realized this is more like a 60% confidence, especially the year figures. oh well, balls to the wall, the penalty for being wrong is pretty non-existent.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between those 2 values.

I'll go first.

In 1 week (3/23): $3,500 - $6,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000

Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*

*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).

In 1 week (3/23): $5,500 - $5,750
In 1 month (4/16): $6,500 - $6,750
In 3 months (6/16): $8,500 - $8,750
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $20,000 - $25,000

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.

I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between those 2 values.

I'll go first.

In 1 week (3/23): $3,500 - $6,000
In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000

Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*

*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).

In 1 week (3/23): $5,500 - $5,750
In 1 month (4/16): $6,500 - $6,750
In 3 months (6/16): $8,500 - $8,750
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $20,000 - $25,000

O.k.  what the fuck. I will do it.  

It's a reasonable mental exercise, and fuck you guys... I am going to estimate with something in the 99% thinking arena, not some pie in the sky 70% numbers or some other gambling numbers that I have already seen in the so far two above attached submissions.

In 1 week (3/23): $2,100 - $10,970
In 1 month (4/16): $1,500 - $12,970
In 3 months (6/16): $2,500 - $17,250
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $4,600 - $150,000

[Ibian]

Don't think you know better
You don't. Nobody does.

You are not keeping yourself informed - perhaps deliberately so - and are projecting that unto others.

I had a 5 hour ride home from the airport yesterday. I spent the entire time studying up on the pandemic. I was not done by the time I got home, have an even bigger backlog now that I had some sleep.

I told my parents to stock up a week before they finally listened. 2 days after they finally got around to it, everyone else did. All at once. Stores now have guards that only let a handful of people in at a time.

I am better informed on Corona than my parents. They are better informed than most people thanks to me. You, are afraid. And you should be, because this is a global pandemic of still unknown lethality that can not be avoided.

What you need to do is get the hell over it. Problems don't go away just by ignoring them, much less by ridiculing those who are actually trying to do something constructive about it. Read, listen to people who know more than you, weep if that makes you feel better. But stop pointing and laughing. You are ultimately only hurting people, even if only yourself.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Fucking hell JJG, talk about keeping your options open

[JayJuanGee]

Fucking hell JJG, talk about keeping your options open

Hey... we gotta be realistic.. what is the most fucking extreme on each end that only has less than of 1% of going past those numbers.

Both you and Nutildah are trying to be like nostradamus, and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.  

O.k.  Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.

I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.

Edit:
Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.

[BitcoinBunny]

n 1 week (3/23): $2,750 - $3,500
In 1 month (4/16): $5,500 - $6,500
In 3 months (6/16): $7,000 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $14,000 - $18,000

[Majormax]

1 week   2500-5500
1 month  1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year    1200-13500

[Majormax]

Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.

As above..and here

1 week   2500-5500
1 month  1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year    1200-13500

[Majormax]

... and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.  

O.k.  Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.

I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.

Good thinking.

The ranges would surely get wider , both ends, with each longer time frame, otherwise it's like saying '99%' we go above x or below x , by <date>

[JayJuanGee]

Probably Majormax should be showing us his self-constructed numbers too for this exercise, since he is the one who proposed this exercise... that way he is not seeming to lecture us about how to prepare our lil selfies psychologically and he has some stake in making prediction assertions that go beyond mere theoretical.

As above..and here

1 week   2500-5500
1 month  1500-6500
3 months 1200-10500
1 year    1200-13500

Surely, a bit bearish, but not outrageous.  And, perhaps only marginally challenging the validity of the stock to flow model and the four year fractal price prediction models.

... and it is not possible to predict such narrow ranges with such high certainty.  

O.k.  Maybe, I will concede that I am a little bit broad in the range because maybe I am assigning too high of a likelihood to extremes, but I don't know how else to do it based on what seems to be current market conditions and my thinking about worse/best case scenarios on both ends in such assigned time-lines.

I am surely not saying that I know anything, but I do consider predicting within 99% range should be giving some pretty outrageous extremes in those assigned timelines.

Good thinking.

The ranges would surely get wider , both ends, with each longer time frame, otherwise it's like saying '99%' we go above x or below x , by <date>

Surely, my thinking too.. about the range almost having to get wider with the passage of time, and of course, there could be some compelling cases that could cause them to go in a certain direction as well or to gravitate towards a kind of price point and maybe could be some unique circumstances to cause them to narrow that do not really seem to be present or compelling in the case of bitcoin.