Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wekkel]

I’m not betting but take the cautious approach that the next 2 years won’t being anything. Not because of Bitcoin but because of the bear market in financial markets at a time that everything behind it is also rickety as hell.

It can only get better from that point of view.

[gentlemand]

Anybody think the bottom is in & we’ll ride it out sideways for a bit until this fucking virus FUD dies out before heading to $7000 & beyond near the halving?

If I had to bet on an outcome this would be it?

To many unknown unknowns to make any type of guess in my opinion. It is being made up as it happens.

[Raja_MBZ]

IMO, COVID19 is probably deadlier than most people think. Let's compare the recovery/death percentage of the most-affected nations where actual democracy exists:

Top 5: China, Italy, Iran, Spain, and S. Korea.

Ignoring China, Iran, and S. Korea:

ITALY:

Total recoveries: 2749
Total deaths: 2158

Percentages:

Recovery: 56%
Death: 44%

SPAIN:

Total recoveries: 530
Total deaths: 342

Percentages:

Recovery: 60%
Death: 40%

[suchmoon]

Anybody think the bottom is in & we’ll ride it out sideways for a bit until this fucking virus FUD dies out before heading to $7000 & beyond near the halving?

If I had to bet on an outcome this would be it?

The "fucking virus" is very likely to get a lot worse before it gets better so I would hedge such a bet up the wazoo if I had to do it.

[fillippone]

IMO, COVID19 is probably deadlier than most people think. Let's compare the recovery/death percentage of the most-affected nations where actual democracy exists:

Top 5: China, Italy, Iran, Spain, and S. Korea.

Ignoring China, Iran, and S. Korea:

ITALY:

Total recoveries: 2749
Total deaths: 2158

Percentages:

Recovery: 56%
Death: 44%

SPAIN:

Total recoveries: 530
Total deaths: 342

Percentages:

Recovery: 60%
Death: 40%

Bear in mind that today a few Italian regions didn't returned the data, so probably tomorrow is going to be a worse day.

Regarding why italian numbers are so bad:

Why it’s so deadly in Italy

This question relates both to the absolute number of deaths , which is currently exceeded only in China, and to the case fatality rate, which has risen to 6.6% and exceeds any other country in the world.
To make sure we are all on the same page: The case fatality rate of COVID-19 is the number of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 divided by the total number of confirmed cases of infections with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The case fatality rate (CFR) should not be confused with the mortality rate or death rate (while it often is confused with them), which is simply the total number of deaths that occur during a specific time frame divided by the number of the total population at approximately the same time. Currently, we are more interested in the CFR because we see the number of cases growing and we want to know how many of these diagnosed cases will result in the death of the patients. The CFR is currently at 0.066 or 6.6% in Italy, 2.1% in France, 0.8% in South Korea, and 0.2% in Germany, according to the latest data collected by worldometer. What explains these immense differences?

Main Bitcointalk Thread on CoronaVirus:
Coronavirus Outbreak

[lightfoot]

Yes, it *has* been that bad ever since the '08 financial crisis: A complete zombie economy hanging by a string.

Eh, we're merely back to 2018 levels. It needs to fall a LOT more to hit 2008 values.

[eddie13]

Feeling bullish..

Thinking the stock market boys have ran out of bitcorns to sell now..

Dow doing worse than bitcoins now..

feeling bullish..

not a haiku..

[rdbase]

Anybody think the bottom is in & we’ll ride it out sideways for a bit until this fucking virus FUD dies out before heading to $7000 & beyond near the halving?

If I had to bet on an outcome this would be it?

The "fucking virus" is very likely to get a lot worse before it gets better so I would hedge such a bet up the wazoo if I had to do it.

Thats why they came up with this site to combat the fuck outta this virus:
https://staythefuckhome.com
"A Movement to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic
Our governments are only slowly implementing measures to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Slow reactions, public appeasement policies, and their urge to stabilize the economy have kept them from taking the measures needed to protect millions from this disease. However, it is not only the government's burden to bear. It is time for us, as citizens of this earth, to take action now and do our part in fighting COVID-19."
https://twitter.com/stfhofficial
https://github.com/flore2003/staythefuckhome

[LFC_Bitcoin]

XTP making big moves!

#mainstreamadoption



(Photo credit - https://twitter.com/pharmawine/status/1239682611770884096?s=21)

[somac.]

Feeling bullish..

Thinking the stock market boys have ran out of bitcorns to sell now..

Dow doing worse than bitcoins now..

feeling bullish..

not a haiku..

I think you're right. While we may go lower, buying at these levels is a good buy

[JayJuanGee]

Anybody think the bottom is in & we’ll ride it out sideways for a bit until this fucking virus FUD dies out before heading to $7000 & beyond near the halving?

If I had to bet on an outcome this would be it?

I agree with you about the general sentiment, but there is also a dynamic in which bearwhales are going to want to take opportunity throw a sufficient amount of ammunition in order for it to appear that the "halvening" is NOT any kind of thing.

Accordingly, there is going to be incentives to keep the BTC price down for as low and as long as possible.. and many of us also know that the real effects of the halvening and the reduced new supply take a bit of time to actually be felt in a kind of material and significant way.. so accordingly, it seems to me that fucktwat bearwhales are going to cause the same kind of bullshit and out of control explosion that they had caused in previous exponential runs.. that is their keeping the BTC price down lower and for longer than reasonable, then such manipulation ends up causing (or contributing to) out of control upwards explosion(s) in the BTC price.

[Searing]

[edited out]

[record number of words from Searing.....  i've been bested]
 

I am glad that you got those ideas off of your chest, searing, and I am also glad that you don't feel inclined to break emotionally or financially at any time in the near future... and you perceive that you have your bases largely covered from your own perspective of your circumstances.

Of course, ever guy / gal here has to come to his/her own conclusions about the level of investment and risk that s/he is willing to take on, and sometimes, even if some of us might not agree with the strategies of others or we might be razzing (or perceived to razz) other members; hopefully, in the end, each member comes to his/her own individually tailored and specific conclusion(s) regarding whether and how to proceed with BTC investing and appropriate, adequate and reasonable risk management.

And, of course tweaking along the way.  Frequently, my also long rants, are more intended to help me, than to help you frequently ungrateful fucks.    (just kidding.. could not resist)...

So, anyhow, sometimes we can learn from others, learn from ourselves by typing out our ideas and then tweak our BTC related plans and strategies to the extent that we deem to be prudent to the times and to our perception of our own situation within the current times.

Well, if I get truly 'rekt'd' on my views of why I'm HODL BTC/Crypto and the current stock market situation/ratio I have and no debt and if such....puts me in some kinda 'dire need', as a wrong bet,

then everyone else is really, truly worse off than me indeed! Not to say it could not happen, we could have a couple back to back black swan events..in a row for this to affect me drastically.

or massive medical needs etc. Just saying, if it goes so far so fast on every frigging thing, as it effects my over 30-year kinda same $$$/lifestyle and such...in a negative

way, then I hate to think what the average joe/jill would go though! You get old enough and go through like me 5 recessions or some such, and you at least learn how to self-delude

yourself on the reality of the situation and just move on. This has indeed been a black swan event, so, don't beat yourself up about it. What works in a ''rising" or sideways market of any kind,

be it Bitcoin/Crypto/Gold/Stocks/Bonds or whatever 'usually' catches you completely flat-footed/wrong-footed when it all goes to sh*t. Sometimes you have been just washed off the riverbank and in

and trapped in the floodwaters and everything is out of control and have to deal with such as you and can barely float, wet and cold though it may be, and you just have to call 'floating' a win and

move on till circumstances have changed to the positive. I've taken positions and no debt to 'likely' not get banged up too much. As they say, "The needs must, if the devil drives" a 15th century

saying. We will be the first to know I guess, even if this drags out a few months.

Brad

[bullrun2024bro]

I bought today.

[Raja_MBZ]

~snip~
Bear in mind that today a few Italian regions didn't returned the data, so probably tomorrow is going to be a worse day.

Regarding why italian numbers are so bad:

Why it’s so deadly in Italy

This question relates both to the absolute number of deaths , which is currently exceeded only in China, and to the case fatality rate, which has risen to 6.6% and exceeds any other country in the world.
To make sure we are all on the same page: The case fatality rate of COVID-19 is the number of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 divided by the total number of confirmed cases of infections with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The case fatality rate (CFR) should not be confused with the mortality rate or death rate (while it often is confused with them), which is simply the total number of deaths that occur during a specific time frame divided by the number of the total population at approximately the same time. Currently, we are more interested in the CFR because we see the number of cases growing and we want to know how many of these diagnosed cases will result in the death of the patients. The CFR is currently at 0.066 or 6.6% in Italy, 2.1% in France, 0.8% in South Korea, and 0.2% in Germany, according to the latest data collected by worldometer. What explains these immense differences?

Main Bitcointalk Thread on CoronaVirus:
Coronavirus Outbreak

Wow, I didn't know about that CoronaVirus thread. Thanks!

[Heater]

Come on Bitcoin - you know what to do. It's your time to shine.

[dragonvslinux]

Local bottom forming, and support strengthening, resistance remaining constant.
Breakout very likely, imho. But also a very good opportunity to counter-trade and dump coins on us.
  what's next  

Getting rejected by the 200 Week MA and volume point of control on the hourly time-frame isn't promising imo, it was looking like a nice breakout for a moment there.

...

I also feel looking at smaller time-frames when the Weekly candle is about to close in 10 hours is somewhat redundant...

Sorry, i wasn't too wise in choice of words and i second your opinion. Not really optimistic.
But on the smaller timeframes: I chose it for visualizing the narrowing spread. Trading activity seems to be quite low, something might be in the air, imho.

Forgot to reply yesterday (too drunk, housemates birthday ) but please NEVER apologize for posting your charts or ideas in this thread - especially if I disagree with it. There is little to no benefit in everyone believing the same thing will happen, especially when a majority are usually wrong.

For example, while me and exstasie disagreed a lot in the recent past during the mini-bull (dead cat bounce) last year, this was beneficial because we could both benefit from each others alternative perspectives when shared. In the past few months, we have been sharing the same opinions a lot more often, and therefore the only benefit is seeing the same picture from a slightly different angle - therefore there is almost no benefit to either of us for this, or anyone else for that matter, as it only entrenches our own perspectives further.

Hence, often a don't have a response to exstasie's TA, because all I would have to say is "I agree, thanks for sharing", which I find better said with merit than words.

TL:DR: Please continue posting your charts and opinions, especially if they contradict my opinions  

No worries, i will
I just wasn't very precise, using the term "Breakout", which is commonly associated with a sudden UP move. I found the probability for a down move more likely, and i tried to correct that statement in my reply. We were both biased in the same direction, but my initial post was reading like the opposite. That was what i was apologizing for.

More and more traders seem to follow triangular boundaries on shorter timeframes. The lines almost always match, i tried to emphasize my "prediction" with the chart.
But you were right on the weekly candle, i tend to forget basic things like that more than often (points at his nickname).

Today i got hold of a bottle of my favourite vodka (made from milk), so maybe i'm the one that will be too drunk to reply later on today  

Ah interesting, thanks for clarifying. You're completely right a breakout merely means a move in the price in one way of another, I made the assumption my bad, not yours. Thanks for not apologizing this time. You were also right the a breakout was imminent in that sense from the triangle pattern. And yes otherwise alcohol is very useful at the moment if you can't be bothered to pay too much attention to lower time-frames in play, you can thank eddie13 for this great suggestion, it's served me very well (apart from the hangovers I am left with when I go to work, but they wear off eventually - even if people think I've got corona for a moment before I explain I just got blind drunk). Just make sure to lock yourself out of any trading account or exchange and you can have a laugh as price crashes  

I otherwise love ascending or descending triangles, I don't like symmetrical triangle as I find them to be subjective continuation patterns with relatively little meaning apart from anticipating a breakout, or as likely a fakeout, so serve no utility. But also, triangle on smaller time-frames are always very dodgy imo. That said, if we can re-test the $5985 resistance level, basically break through $6K, then I'd start to look at the argument for a bullish ascending triangle on smaller time-frames. Think I'm drunk again, looking forward to your future charts posted in the best speculation thread on here

I'm all out at the moment, price is moving sideways and I have strict rules for triangles that don't apply yet (3 points of contact, for each resistance & support, including a perfect horizontal and not crossing a single candle body on the time-frame drawn). I'm so pedantic with my triangles, but fortunately this means I rarely acknowledge them until perfect  

I'll otherwise call bullshit on any smaller time-frame TA on a Sunday, leading upto the Weekly close, you should know this about me. While I find the smaller-time frames interesting when there is lack of clarity on the Daily/Weekly, I'm really all about the longer term time-frames, a trade I can hold for a few weeks or a month, rather than a matter of days.

[Searing]

Come on Bitcoin - you know what to do. It's your time to shine.

Actually, maybe we are seeing some decoupling of BTC/Crypto prices from the US Stock Market..or at least, IMHO, not as much as I dreaded!

Come on Bitcoin, you know the rule, if you are running from Bears you don't have to run faster than than the Bears, just the other guy, er 'stock market'

[eddie13]

alcohol is very useful

I bought 2 large bottles of lemon juice, 2 large bottles of honey, and 2 5ths of 100 proof Hot Damn (hot cinnamon liqueur) today..
I am developing a sore throat and runny nose right now and I'll be damned if I'm going to suffer through any sickness without a good supply of Hot Toddies..

I'm all out at the moment

Of BTC?
I'm just starting to think things are looking better for BTC right now..

[dragonvslinux]

alcohol is very useful

I bought 2 large bottles of lemon juice, 2 large bottles of honey, and 2 5ths of 100 proof Hot Damn (hot cinnamon liqueur) today..
I am developing a sore throat and runny nose right now and I'll be damned if I'm going to suffer through any sickness without a good supply of Hot Toddies..

Nice. Fortunately I (may or may not) live with a bar, so we are fully stocked... though can't sell any of it  
Think we got a good a month's worth of alcohol prior to cancelling events, so all good here  
Though financially gunna get rekt for now  

I'm all out at the moment

Of BTC?
I'm just starting to think things are looking better for BTC right now..

Hell no, just out of TA. Daily/Weekly ain't telling me that much, I don't trust smaller time-frames, price is moving sideways it seems until proven otherwise.
Still btfd, all good here  

[jojo69]