Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Something I thought of last night: They don't need a test to see if you have the CV. They need a test to see if you have HAD the CV.

it seems to me that both kinds of tests already exist, even though there are a variety of techniques to accomplish and of course, shortages of tests and even logistical issues regarding who and how to test.

The "already had" CV test is testing for the presence of CV anti-bodies, I believe.

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[bitserve]

A new Day, a new restriction in Italy.

Now it is forbid to move out or your local municipality.

Coronavirus, ban on the movement of people from the municipality where they are "except for proven needs"

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_22/coronavirus-divieto-spostamento-le-persone-comune-cui-si-trovano-af7a9136-6c51-11ea-8403-94d97cb6fb9f.shtml

Italy has now closed every non-essential activity.
You can exit from home only in a 200 m radius, for whatever reason, but work and food shopping.
Many supermarkets have now restricted opening hours, in addition only one person per family can enter the shop.

The only last step to be exactly like China is welders on the house doors.

So basically Italy has just approved the same restrictions we have had since a week ago. Except we cannot even go out for that 200m UNLESS it is for work, food or medicines... or walk the dog.

[VB1001]

Thanks for narrowing down your recommendations.  I am currently using the Overcast app to listen to podcasts, so I will rarely listen to any podcasts that are not on overcast (except incidentally if an episode is pointed out as notworthy on some other medium).. just makes it easier for me to keep track of it on overcast and I can vary the speed... and just listen to any podcast at my own background playing convenience.

I didn't know Overcast and it only works on iOS, I can't use it, thanks anyway.
With Isolation due to shitCOVID, the podcast list is also a good exhaust valve.

Thx, for the list.

[VB1001]

Did you get home?

[Biodom]

Something I thought of last night: They don't need a test to see if you have the CV. They need a test to see if you have HAD the CV.

it seems to me that both kinds of tests already exist, even though there are a variety of techniques to accomplish and of course, shortages of tests and even logistical issues regarding who and how to test.

The "already had" CV test is testing for the presence of CV anti-bodies, I believe.

That's correct.
have CV-either immunological for surface protein (less sensitive, probably) or PCR-for viral genomes.
had CV-test for presence of antibodies. This test would become progressively more important as we move forward as we need to ID people who already had it and are possibly immune. These people could do things that others can't.

The only caveat is that the amount of antibodies in the bloodstream would be declining steadily after infection is over, maybe over a couple of months or a bit more.
After that you are still protected, usually, by the presence of so called memory cells (both T- and B-) which spring into action IMMEDIATELY after re-infection and not allow new viral growth.

[jojo69]

We are going to need bigger guns.

lol, and you made fun of us murricans

[bitserve]

Did you get home?

Not even tried yet. The thing is that restrictions are tightening even more and now I fear if my GF comes with me, there is a possibility she is unable to come back for providing food and medicines to his nearby (just a couple tens of meters away from where we are now) mother. And she doesn't want to take her with us because she wants to keep her in *FULL* physical isolation. Oh well... there's so many things to consider at the same time...

Sooner or later I will have to go anyways. I see from the cameras that the cats still do have food, but that's not gonna last much longer. Being feral they probably are perfectly capable to provide for themselves, at least up to a certain point. They are not going to starve.

Anyway, my GF house is also my "home" in some way, so it's fine. It's just not ideal but what can I do... the world is so fucked up right now.

[lightfoot]

Something like this?

Exactly like that.

[Last of the V8s]

We are going to need bigger guns.

lol, and you made fun of us murricans

v8s: 11:05 I hate to say it, but the USA is the only hope for humanity's freedom, simply because the citizens are armed.

yes well
was before the so called Commies let their virus free all over the shop thereby killing a significant proportion of everyone on the planet

[rdbase]

We are going to need bigger guns.

lol, and you made fun of us murricans

Only because of him Jojo!

"... that's sensationalism and not reporting!"
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1241073096909631494
And what is he doing on twitter again? Just for the shock value because he aint doing it to educate anyone.

[lightfoot]

Anyway, my GF house is also my "home" in some way, so it's fine. It's just not ideal but what can I do... the world is so fucked up right now.

This is when it gets complicated. I went over to see the GF last night, my thought is if the cops chase me I have a fairly fast car and it's really probably not worth it to arrest. Last thing they want to do is take people to jail that they will need for real problems.

My thought on the antibody test is if I know I've had it (say one of the 99% milds) then I would be perfect to volunteer in a hospital as a "blast shield" and handle the incoming losers with minimal protection. Then as they get well you put them in the line of fire for a few weeks.

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

[Cryptotourist]

Something like this?

Exactly like that.

Well, I literally searched for the keywords: "50 caliber sexy", and this is what I got:



 

[jojo69]

cops are hunkering down here

and the crackheads know it

been seeing some crazy out there...apparently some things are not in short supply



^ god damn...

[Last of the V8s]

Besides people surrounding me IRL, I am glad hanging around here with you guys (and girls) in these trying times.

yes well
that's all very true and nice but
wtf is that scammy shit doing in your sig? deeponion was outed long ago was it not?

[Biodom]

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.

Not a fact. Even @aantop recognizes the correlation:



There's other more mathematically sound ways of identifying increasing correlation but they are too cumbersome and boring to reproduce at the moment.

I would be ecstatic if all institutions drop off completely (well, maybe except a couple that were super-early) until bitcoin gets to $20-50K based on NEW users.
Then, institutions can re-join the game and panic at 300K all they want (as long as we don't drop below 50K).

[rdbase]

cops are hunkering down here

and the crackheads know it

been seeing some crazy out there...apparently some things are not in short supply
^ god damn...

Amazon workers have been tested positive with the corona virus.
So they were spreading it by handling those packages?
Something CNbc just released about how they are changing their operations in the wake of this pandemic outbreak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW4B7s2ZdBg
Careful with you mail because thy are not testing their own employees in time.
I think trump administration should of had the priority on these workforce that are in potential contact with a large range of people.
They have said the covid-19 virus can live on cardboard surfaces up to 24 hours. Something that was mentioned on Dr.oz the last time I tuned in for a brief time while waiting for something to show up on netflix.

I think it will probably get worse before it gets better,but thank good will get better

True. Some are showing thieves who are looting already in the SF bay area at a walgreens for meds.
https://twitter.com/Jared_William/status/1240741535357911040

It is getting pretty crazy out there Jojo bro.
Crackheads will always need the ingredients to make the only thing they live in this world for.

[OutOfMemory]

Good evening, gents (and ladies)  

Good news on the shortage of masks:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html

Happens that i have such light source at home, as well as a 50 pack of masks (for woodworking). I dedicated 30 of them to my neighbour, because she's driving one of the pimped ambulance cars that pick up and move Covid19 cases to and between hospitals and recently said they are already running out of masks. She gets my full respect for doing that job now. Before we didn't really speak with each other, just because she's quite having the opposite of my attitude.

I see bitcoin is going sideways, volatility cooled down a bit. I like  
Hoping i'll get my tax refund in time. I don't know how the tax officials are working now.
Easy hodl.

And as it's sunday:

Where is El_dude at?
Missing his positive style.
I hope he's alright.

#haiku

That said, Belgium goes locking down more, as some other european countries.
Waiting for a bullish meme from him to celebrate his return with a big smile and some wodka, stirred in cold milk, refined with a spoon of kaluha  

[bitserve]

Anyway, my GF house is also my "home" in some way, so it's fine. It's just not ideal but what can I do... the world is so fucked up right now.

This is when it gets complicated. I went over to see the GF last night, my thought is if the cops chase me I have a fairly fast car and it's really probably not worth it to arrest. Last thing they want to do is take people to jail that they will need for real problems.

My thought on the antibody test is if I know I've had it (say one of the 99% milds) then I would be perfect to volunteer in a hospital as a "blast shield" and handle the incoming losers with minimal protection. Then as they get well you put them in the line of fire for a few weeks.

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

It is bit more complex than that. Here is my theory:

- The health staff (doctors, nurses, general staff, etc) have been dealing with this shit with almost no protection since the beginning. There is a generalised lack of PPE (masks, etc). So I would bet they have *ALL* been exposed to the virus already. Many have probably already passed it, others are currently still infected but asymptomatic...

If we would start testing them, MANY would show positive. And then.. what do we do? Send them to their homes? Also send the rest of the staff of the same hospital and close it like we initially did with one hospital?

Of course not. We need them where they are, doing what they are doing. So that's why we are just testing people with CLEAR symptoms of the disease. We need to delay as much the mass testing until most of them have already passed the infection and are already inmune. So yeah, the antibodies test will be more useful for that.

- If we were to do the antibodies test to the general population, many people that would be already inmune would just try to avoid the restrictions [insert "me not affected" meme here] and not only that would obstruct the job of police enforcing the restrictions but it would create some sort of jelously in the rest of the population. It would be chaos.

- If there are not enough PPE for the health staff, much less for the general population. We need to solve that problem first. We need to have enough so that EVERYONE can go to the street fully protected. Probably even enforce that people do NOT go out "in the wild" unless wearing masks and gloves.

But you can't say that now... or people will riot because some people are so "lucky" to have the PPE and can roam freely and they can't. Because that's predictible normal people behaviour. So no... for now, restrictions are for EVERYONE.

The best course of action right now is to wait a little more. Then, when enough people has already been exposed and things are under control (hospitals not overwhelmed) yes.. we should start doing the tagging inmune people thing. It's just not the right moment to do it YET.

Just my two cents.

P.S.: Also, it is not more health workers what we need right now. It is fucking ventilators and PPE.

[Elwar]

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

[JayJuanGee]

Nice feel good article...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-was-designed-for-a-financial-crisis-so-far-its-working-well

There are many who argue that Bitcoin cannot be a store-of-value based on its whipsaw volatility but valuable insight can be drawn from gold’s price action during the 2008 financial crisis.

Gold certainly doesn’t look like a safe haven after a 24% plunge in less than 2 months, even more worrisome is the fact that the S&P 500 remained flat during that period. Therefore, is it really fair to analyze any correlation over such a short period? Does that sharp movement in price invalidate gold’s resilience during market uncertainties?

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.
Said in laymen terms: Honey Badger doesn't give a fuck.

Don't get me wrong.  I largely agree with your sentiment, but why exaggerate, fillippone?

If BTC had zero correlation, then why are there times when it moves together with other assets in the short terms...

Sure, the long term is very likely to be different, but the matter is far from settled, especially in the short term... and in fact, there are quite wonderful arguments in regards to short-term correlations that lead many folks into convoluting short-term and long-term to their peril.

I won't comment again my own theory about "mining capitulation" induced dump in bitcoin, only to be reinforced by general asset classes crash. So Bitcoin capitulation started for reasons all inside the bitcoin "ecosystem" only to be later reinforced by general market crash.

Again, I doubt that such absolutism is accurate.  Of course, bitcoin has its own price influencing dynamics, but it is not completely isolated from various things going on in the outside world that both affect liquidity and also manipulation incentives of whales to identify a bitcoin price trend and then to exacerbate such price trend in order to profit from such exacerbation.

Bitcoin going down because other asset classes crash (Equity, Debt and Gold) going down could lead you to think that bitcoin is still used as a gambling tools by many.

It is used for gambling/speculation and as a long term investment/store of value.

Trading bitcoin has low correlation to other asset classes and high volatility, this is a wonderful instrument for scalping (beware: this doesn't mean in any way it is a profitable strategy to scalp on bitcoin).

Sure, you are conceding somewhat here about the short-term abilities to both speculate and to potentially take advantage of likely inevitable volatility, even though of course, not everyone is going to be profitable by engaging in such short-term speculations.

So, despite the digital gold is the best narrative I can think of while dealing with bitcoin, this proved to still be a narrative, not supported by data and market evidences.

Of course, I largely agree with you that bitcoin is both better than gold, and it is likely not necessary to invest in gold in order to achieve some of the same investment objectives.. so fuck gold...

but on the other hand, gold can still likely have some good short term and long term investment performance, especially relative to various other traditional assets, but doubtfully, from either your perspective or mine that it is going to perform as well as bitcoin or even has such relatively upside potential as bitcoin.

Actually, if you want to have a ray of light, you can think that bitcoin is not the one you observe on the exchanges.
As beautifully pointed out by @Plutosky on the Italian board, bitcoins used for trading are only a minuscule part of the whole bitcoin used out there.

Can't argue with you there.  

If bitcoin would have been a pure gambling tool, given the enormous swings during the last days we would have seen a great surge in  bitcoin transactions and a subsequent rise in transaction fees. Ok, we observed a rise in both metrics, but nothing comparable to what would have happened if we had observed a "rush" to the exchanges to trade bitcoins. We observed a few weak hands running to convert into Fiat, a few buying) but the vast majority of hodlers kept on...hodling.

Of course, we still seem to have some potential liquidity issues in bitcoin, including the likely outrageous out of balance dumpenings that were occurring on 3/12 that seemed to have been attributed to Bitmex, but also seemed to have drug the whole BTC price down to such a level that was becoming more and more difficult to sustain, which likely is part of the reason why BTC prices ended up bouncing back so hard once Bitmex was shut off and the dragging effect of that one exchange had seemed to create such considerable short term arbitrage opportunity.  Personally, I speculate that if Bitmex had been left running, then the arbitrage opportunity would have become greater, yet Bitmex's measure to actually shut off its exchange for a short period of time was a means for Bitmex to salvage its own reputation and perhaps even its ability to continue to operate in the space with any kind of possible level of confidence - even though it seems that a lot of bitmex account holders are quite pissed off about the situation that had taken place, and of course, other bitcoin HODLers are not very happy regarding how Bitmex's situation seemed to have had such a BIG downward drag on BTC prices, and maybe even bringing BTC prices down further and for longer than reasonable and prudent... (irresponsible, in other words).

If we look at LN statistics we see that the allocated bitcoins in LN are almost unchanged. Sign that no one thought their precious coins were at risk committed to a LN channel.



Number of allocated BTC coins actually slightly increased over the market dump: sign that the LN user didn't think their coins were at risk being committed to a channel instead of rushing to a fiat exchange.

So, don't infer anything about bitcoin only looking at the price: the price is one of the many aspects of bitcoin, but there is much more to deal with than price.

Not going to get any argument from me on that point, either.

Edit:  Nutildah made some similar points as I made above, in responding to fillippone (of course, before I did, but I wrote my above post before seeing nutildah's response.