Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rdbase]

cops are hunkering down here

and the crackheads know it

been seeing some crazy out there...apparently some things are not in short supply
^ god damn...

Amazon workers have been tested positive with the corona virus.
So they were spreading it by handling those packages?
Something CNbc just released about how they are changing their operations in the wake of this pandemic outbreak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW4B7s2ZdBg
Careful with you mail because thy are not testing their own employees in time.
I think trump administration should of had the priority on these workforce that are in potential contact with a large range of people.
They have said the covid-19 virus can live on cardboard surfaces up to 24 hours. Something that was mentioned on Dr.oz the last time I tuned in for a brief time while waiting for something to show up on netflix.

I think it will probably get worse before it gets better,but thank good will get better

True. Some are showing thieves who are looting already in the SF bay area at a walgreens for meds.
https://twitter.com/Jared_William/status/1240741535357911040

It is getting pretty crazy out there Jojo bro.
Crackheads will always need the ingredients to make the only thing they live in this world for.

[OutOfMemory]

Good evening, gents (and ladies)  

Good news on the shortage of masks:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html

Happens that i have such light source at home, as well as a 50 pack of masks (for woodworking). I dedicated 30 of them to my neighbour, because she's driving one of the pimped ambulance cars that pick up and move Covid19 cases to and between hospitals and recently said they are already running out of masks. She gets my full respect for doing that job now. Before we didn't really speak with each other, just because she's quite having the opposite of my attitude.

I see bitcoin is going sideways, volatility cooled down a bit. I like  
Hoping i'll get my tax refund in time. I don't know how the tax officials are working now.
Easy hodl.

And as it's sunday:

Where is El_dude at?
Missing his positive style.
I hope he's alright.

#haiku

That said, Belgium goes locking down more, as some other european countries.
Waiting for a bullish meme from him to celebrate his return with a big smile and some wodka, stirred in cold milk, refined with a spoon of kaluha  

[bitserve]

Anyway, my GF house is also my "home" in some way, so it's fine. It's just not ideal but what can I do... the world is so fucked up right now.

This is when it gets complicated. I went over to see the GF last night, my thought is if the cops chase me I have a fairly fast car and it's really probably not worth it to arrest. Last thing they want to do is take people to jail that they will need for real problems.

My thought on the antibody test is if I know I've had it (say one of the 99% milds) then I would be perfect to volunteer in a hospital as a "blast shield" and handle the incoming losers with minimal protection. Then as they get well you put them in the line of fire for a few weeks.

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

It is bit more complex than that. Here is my theory:

- The health staff (doctors, nurses, general staff, etc) have been dealing with this shit with almost no protection since the beginning. There is a generalised lack of PPE (masks, etc). So I would bet they have *ALL* been exposed to the virus already. Many have probably already passed it, others are currently still infected but asymptomatic...

If we would start testing them, MANY would show positive. And then.. what do we do? Send them to their homes? Also send the rest of the staff of the same hospital and close it like we initially did with one hospital?

Of course not. We need them where they are, doing what they are doing. So that's why we are just testing people with CLEAR symptoms of the disease. We need to delay as much the mass testing until most of them have already passed the infection and are already inmune. So yeah, the antibodies test will be more useful for that.

- If we were to do the antibodies test to the general population, many people that would be already inmune would just try to avoid the restrictions [insert "me not affected" meme here] and not only that would obstruct the job of police enforcing the restrictions but it would create some sort of jelously in the rest of the population. It would be chaos.

- If there are not enough PPE for the health staff, much less for the general population. We need to solve that problem first. We need to have enough so that EVERYONE can go to the street fully protected. Probably even enforce that people do NOT go out "in the wild" unless wearing masks and gloves.

But you can't say that now... or people will riot because some people are so "lucky" to have the PPE and can roam freely and they can't. Because that's predictible normal people behaviour. So no... for now, restrictions are for EVERYONE.

The best course of action right now is to wait a little more. Then, when enough people has already been exposed and things are under control (hospitals not overwhelmed) yes.. we should start doing the tagging inmune people thing. It's just not the right moment to do it YET.

Just my two cents.

P.S.: Also, it is not more health workers what we need right now. It is fucking ventilators and PPE.

[Elwar]

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

[JayJuanGee]

Nice feel good article...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-was-designed-for-a-financial-crisis-so-far-its-working-well

There are many who argue that Bitcoin cannot be a store-of-value based on its whipsaw volatility but valuable insight can be drawn from gold’s price action during the 2008 financial crisis.

Gold certainly doesn’t look like a safe haven after a 24% plunge in less than 2 months, even more worrisome is the fact that the S&P 500 remained flat during that period. Therefore, is it really fair to analyze any correlation over such a short period? Does that sharp movement in price invalidate gold’s resilience during market uncertainties?

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.
Said in laymen terms: Honey Badger doesn't give a fuck.

Don't get me wrong.  I largely agree with your sentiment, but why exaggerate, fillippone?

If BTC had zero correlation, then why are there times when it moves together with other assets in the short terms...

Sure, the long term is very likely to be different, but the matter is far from settled, especially in the short term... and in fact, there are quite wonderful arguments in regards to short-term correlations that lead many folks into convoluting short-term and long-term to their peril.

I won't comment again my own theory about "mining capitulation" induced dump in bitcoin, only to be reinforced by general asset classes crash. So Bitcoin capitulation started for reasons all inside the bitcoin "ecosystem" only to be later reinforced by general market crash.

Again, I doubt that such absolutism is accurate.  Of course, bitcoin has its own price influencing dynamics, but it is not completely isolated from various things going on in the outside world that both affect liquidity and also manipulation incentives of whales to identify a bitcoin price trend and then to exacerbate such price trend in order to profit from such exacerbation.

Bitcoin going down because other asset classes crash (Equity, Debt and Gold) going down could lead you to think that bitcoin is still used as a gambling tools by many.

It is used for gambling/speculation and as a long term investment/store of value.

Trading bitcoin has low correlation to other asset classes and high volatility, this is a wonderful instrument for scalping (beware: this doesn't mean in any way it is a profitable strategy to scalp on bitcoin).

Sure, you are conceding somewhat here about the short-term abilities to both speculate and to potentially take advantage of likely inevitable volatility, even though of course, not everyone is going to be profitable by engaging in such short-term speculations.

So, despite the digital gold is the best narrative I can think of while dealing with bitcoin, this proved to still be a narrative, not supported by data and market evidences.

Of course, I largely agree with you that bitcoin is both better than gold, and it is likely not necessary to invest in gold in order to achieve some of the same investment objectives.. so fuck gold...

but on the other hand, gold can still likely have some good short term and long term investment performance, especially relative to various other traditional assets, but doubtfully, from either your perspective or mine that it is going to perform as well as bitcoin or even has such relatively upside potential as bitcoin.

Actually, if you want to have a ray of light, you can think that bitcoin is not the one you observe on the exchanges.
As beautifully pointed out by @Plutosky on the Italian board, bitcoins used for trading are only a minuscule part of the whole bitcoin used out there.

Can't argue with you there.  

If bitcoin would have been a pure gambling tool, given the enormous swings during the last days we would have seen a great surge in  bitcoin transactions and a subsequent rise in transaction fees. Ok, we observed a rise in both metrics, but nothing comparable to what would have happened if we had observed a "rush" to the exchanges to trade bitcoins. We observed a few weak hands running to convert into Fiat, a few buying) but the vast majority of hodlers kept on...hodling.

Of course, we still seem to have some potential liquidity issues in bitcoin, including the likely outrageous out of balance dumpenings that were occurring on 3/12 that seemed to have been attributed to Bitmex, but also seemed to have drug the whole BTC price down to such a level that was becoming more and more difficult to sustain, which likely is part of the reason why BTC prices ended up bouncing back so hard once Bitmex was shut off and the dragging effect of that one exchange had seemed to create such considerable short term arbitrage opportunity.  Personally, I speculate that if Bitmex had been left running, then the arbitrage opportunity would have become greater, yet Bitmex's measure to actually shut off its exchange for a short period of time was a means for Bitmex to salvage its own reputation and perhaps even its ability to continue to operate in the space with any kind of possible level of confidence - even though it seems that a lot of bitmex account holders are quite pissed off about the situation that had taken place, and of course, other bitcoin HODLers are not very happy regarding how Bitmex's situation seemed to have had such a BIG downward drag on BTC prices, and maybe even bringing BTC prices down further and for longer than reasonable and prudent... (irresponsible, in other words).

If we look at LN statistics we see that the allocated bitcoins in LN are almost unchanged. Sign that no one thought their precious coins were at risk committed to a LN channel.



Number of allocated BTC coins actually slightly increased over the market dump: sign that the LN user didn't think their coins were at risk being committed to a channel instead of rushing to a fiat exchange.

So, don't infer anything about bitcoin only looking at the price: the price is one of the many aspects of bitcoin, but there is much more to deal with than price.

Not going to get any argument from me on that point, either.

Edit:  Nutildah made some similar points as I made above, in responding to fillippone (of course, before I did, but I wrote my above post before seeing nutildah's response.

[Biodom]

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

Completely inappropriate comparison, IMHO.
Intent matters in this case as long as it positive (enabling) and not negative (restricting).
Personally, I would like to know if i had it or not.
If I had it, then behavior and options available should change, apart from having less stress.
Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.

[sirazimuth]

Shit's gettin real:

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1241423796453638145

That was priceless.
Thanx dude for my Sunday lol.

[bitserve]

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

Completely inappropriate comparison, IMHO.
Intent matters in this case as long as it positive (enabling) and not negative (restricting).
Personally, I would like to know if i had it or not.
If I had it, then behavior and options available should change, apart from having less stress.
Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.

See? So you are saying if you KNEW you are already inmune you would change your behaviour, relax your profilactic measures, and think yourself entitled to don't follow the restrictions, right?

Well, that's why it would be wrong to do that. Yet.

[jojo69]

... or people will riot because some people are so "lucky" to have the PPE and can roam freely and they can't. Because that's predictible normal people behaviour...

the girl is sewing up some ghetto ass fabric masks to go over our top quality N95 (which we have adequate supply of because...fucking duh) so we don't get the envious looks when out.

[Lightblock]

Nice feel good article...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-was-designed-for-a-financial-crisis-so-far-its-working-well

There are many who argue that Bitcoin cannot be a store-of-value based on its whipsaw volatility but valuable insight can be drawn from gold’s price action during the 2008 financial crisis.

Gold certainly doesn’t look like a safe haven after a 24% plunge in less than 2 months, even more worrisome is the fact that the S&P 500 remained flat during that period. Therefore, is it really fair to analyze any correlation over such a short period? Does that sharp movement in price invalidate gold’s resilience during market uncertainties?

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.
Said in laymen terms: Honey Badger doesn't give a fuck.
I won't comment again my own theory about "mining capitulation" induced dump in bitcoin, only to be reinforced by general asset classes crash. So Bitcoin capitulation started for reasons all inside the bitcoin "ecosystem" only to be later reinforced by general market crash.

Bitcoin going down because other asset classes crash (Equity, Debt and Gold) going down could lead you to think that bitcoin is still used as a gambling tools by many.
Trading bitcoin has low correlation to other asset classes and high volatility, this is a wonderful instrument for scalping (beware: this doesn't mean in any way it is a profitable strategy to scalp on bitcoin).
So, despite the digital gold is the best narrative I can think of while dealing with bitcoin, this proved to still be a narrative, not supported by data and market evidences.

Actually, if you want to have a ray of light, you can think that bitcoin is not the one you observe on the exchanges.
As beautifully pointed out by @Plutosky on the Italian board, bitcoins used for trading are only a minuscule part of the whole bitcoin used out there.

If bitcoin would have been a pure gambling tool, given the enormous swings during the last days we would have seen a great surge in  bitcoin transactions and a subsequent rise in transaction fees. Ok, we observed a rise in both metrics, but nothing comparable to what would have happened if we had observed a "rush" to the exchanges to trade bitcoins. We observed a few weak hands running to convert into Fiat, a few buying) but the vast majority of hodlers kept on...hodling.

If we look at LN statistics we see that the allocated bitcoins in LN are almost unchanged. Sign that no one thought their precious coins were at risk committed to a LN channel.

https://i.imgur.com/dLGzujP.jpg

Number of allocated BTC coins actually slightly increased over the market dump: sign that the LN user didn't think their coins were at risk being committed to a channel instead of rushing to a fiat exchange.

So, don't infer anything about bitcoin only looking at the price: the price is one of the many aspects of bitcoin, but there is much more to deal with than price.

Hey, could you please share the source where that graph comes from? Thanks.

[bitserve]

... or people will riot because some people are so "lucky" to have the PPE and can roam freely and they can't. Because that's predictible normal people behaviour...

the girl is sewing up some ghetto ass fabric masks to go over our top quality N95 (which we have adequate supply of because...fucking duh) so we don't get the envious looks when out.

Forget the envious look. If you were allowed to go to the street JUST because you have the protection and other people don't (and can't manage to obtain it)... you would probably be shouted and thrown all kinds of household objects at you from the balconies and windows of isolated people.

The other day a friend told me that when he was going to get on his car very early in the morning, an old woman started shouting at him to "stay at home / people are dying" from her balcony and started to throw him little stones from the flower pots while he was driving away in his car. He is a doctor and was going to work.

[Cryptotourist]

Guys, I'm not at all religious, but I certainly don't appreciate where this is going.
Like, for real? You have to be shitting me.

I prefer to drop dead right now - than to physically mark me in any way, against my will - like sheep.
Do wake the fuck up. It is matter of freedom. This what is really tested.

Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.

I usually don't get sick at all, but last year around this period, I had a flu like no other.
It was like the cough insisted for a month after a full treatment cycle. My parents also got it, whilst living in another city. Some friends too. ONE fucking YEAR AGO.

Icygreen I think it was, reported something similar a couple of months back (not in Vietnam, before).

[Biro Bob]

I bought 0.35 Bitcoin recently when the price hits $3,850

Best decision I ever made, what a profit.  

And YES, Bitcoin was already dead long time ago.

And, you always (and only) bang 10s, too.  


 

Those were mine. I sold them by accident. Please can I have them back. I’ll give you £5 for your trouble.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin above $80K

But... but... you're trying to say I'll be too old for the $100k party? Damn...  

Not at all. Before 2030 comes I'm almost positive we'll see a spike above that.

What I'm talking about is the low, or sideways, price of BTC will float around ~$80K  in ten years. Or higher.

And by that time asset inflation will have been really really bad.

The longer that I have been studying the bitcoin space, the more I have come to consider that both the bottom spikes and the bottom floating arena are amongst the more important factors, rather than the various upward price spikes, and of course, nothing is guaranteed, even while "~$80K  in ten years" as a floor seems to be a relatively conservative bet......   

and yeah, it could be argued that some of us are drinking too much BTC kool-aide, but given the whole way that these matters are playing out, bitcoin remains bullish as fuck.. and surely, hope that many of us (including yours truly) is still alive and well and even feeling powerful enough to witness 2030 and even to enjoy the likely wealth from such passage of events... thinking about it.. a floor BTC price that is more or less 13x greater than our current bouncing around price.

For younger folks, folks just learning about bitcoin, folks with a very limited budget or even folks who fucked up in their bitcoin strategy(ies) in the past (not only mindrust, but others), you should be able to figure out a way to reasonably and prudently profit from this decently likely situation, without going too fucking crazy in terms of a target timeline and not gambling too much with your own finances or psychology, either... and even DCAing a modest amount of $100 per month (or whatever amount that you can reasonably manage without devolving into a mindrust-like meltdown) is going to likely put you in a very fucking good (great) place in 10 years or so.

[fillippone]

<...>
Hey, could you please share the source where that graph comes from? Thanks.

Easy!

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/lightning

[Hyperjacked]

Worldometers just reported over 12k cases in New York today! See below...
Some idiot lady just walked past me going into a supermarket coughing like crazy!
Maybe Bitcoin could hit 4800$ again soon imho

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[DaRude]

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.

Not a fact. Even @aantop recognizes the correlation:



There's other more mathematically sound ways of identifying increasing correlation but they are too cumbersome and boring to reproduce at the moment.

I would be ecstatic if all institutions drop off completely (well, maybe except a couple that were super-early) until bitcoin gets to $20-50K based on NEW users.
Then, institutions can re-join the game and panic at 300K all they want (as long as we don't drop below 50K).

Couldn't agree with Andreas more, but don't forget it'll work the other way too, once price gets super comfortable, they'll pile on like flies on shit.

[DaRude]

Sen. Rand Paul has tested positive for coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html

Shit, this is not how it was supposed to happen

[Torque]

Bitcoin above $80K

But... but... you're trying to say I'll be too old for the $100k party? Damn...  

Not at all. Before 2030 comes I'm almost positive we'll see a spike above that.

What I'm talking about is the low, or sideways, price of BTC will float around ~$80K  in ten years. Or higher.

And by that time asset inflation will have been really really bad.

The longer that I have been studying the bitcoin space, the more I have come to consider that both the bottom spikes and the bottom floating arena are amongst the more important factors, rather than the various upward price spikes, and of course, nothing is guaranteed, even while "~$80K  in ten years" as a floor seems to be a relatively conservative bet......  

and yeah, it could be argued that some of us are drinking too much BTC kool-aide, but given the whole way that these matters are playing out, bitcoin remains bullish as fuck.. and surely, hope that many of us (including yours truly) is still alive and well and even feeling powerful enough to witness 2030 and even to enjoy the likely wealth from such passage of events... thinking about it.. a floor BTC price that is more or less 13x greater than our current bouncing around price.

For younger folks, folks just learning about bitcoin, folks with a very limited budget or even folks who fucked up in their bitcoin strategy(ies) in the past (not only mindrust, but others), you should be able to figure out a way to reasonably and prudently profit from this decently likely situation, without going too fucking crazy in terms of a target timeline and not gambling too much with your own finances or psychology, either... and even DCAing a modest amount of $100 per month (or whatever amount that you can reasonably manage without devolving into a mindrust-like meltdown) is going to likely put you in a very fucking good (great) place in 10 years or so.

Well said JJG. DCAing every month or three is a much better strategy that just FOMOing in during every bull run spike.

I mean, even if my conservative prediction of a $80K/btc floor in ten years turned out to be wrong, and it was instead say half of that. $40K+/btc. That's still, what, like 7X higher from here? Tell me what stock or other investment would do that by 2030? I'd be willing to bet none of them. None. Certainly not a corporate-blessed 401K, that's for damn sure.

For fk sake, even if people didn't like or want to own Bitcoin, they should at least be buying some Gold or Silver and hold it long term. But the sheeple aren't even willing to do that much. And then ten more years pass by and they wonder why they feel even poorer (Pssst! It's stagflation, stupid).  

[OutOfMemory]

Worldometers just reported over 12k cases in New York today! See below...
Some idiot lady just walked past me going into a supermarket coughing like crazy!
Maybe Bitcoin could hit 4800$ again soon imho

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Humans are still the biggest threat to the human species.

Mind to share some additional thoughts about that $4800 statement?

For fk sake, even if people didn't like or want to own Bitcoin, they should at least be buying some Gold or Silver and hold it long term. But the sheeple aren't even willing to do that much. And then ten more years pass by and they wonder why they feel even poorer (Pssst! It's stagflation, stupid). 

They are driven into over-consumption (and so into debt) for a reason.
It's an educational problem. If we can get people to be educated well, or self-educate well (for the older generations), they are able to step out of this filthy spending game.
Also nobody but the biggest idiots (minorities) would vote a ***tard like Donald for president.
But nowadays the media is educating people to be selfish little consumer zombies.