Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[derpinheimer]

I haven't been keeping track of things today, is the current Gox situation still no real news but plenty of speculation and fud?

Fortunately I removed my small BTC stash from there a while ago.

Yup!

Some more additional fuel like

1. Gox coins possibly seized/frozen by US Govt?
2. Gox filing for bankruptcy?
3. Possible Gox addresses with large sums of coins? (Solvent?)


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BTW, the failed breakout is pretty scary IMO? Anyone agree?

[bitjoint]

<RogerVer> On Tuesday Mark told me via text message: Currently lining up for getting a Frappucino with bacon topping... need food for my biceps

[Mota]

<RogerVer> On Tuesday Mark told me via text message: Some say I live with 5 beautiful women - others say I can shit rainbows. Truth is, I am the Stig.

[MickeyT2008]

I haven't been keeping track of things today, is the current Gox situation still no real news but plenty of speculation and fud?

Fortunately I removed my small BTC stash from there a while ago.

Yup!

Some more additional fuel like

1. Gox coins possibly seized/frozen by US Govt?
2. Gox filing for bankruptcy?
3. Possible Gox addresses with large sums of coins? (Solvent?)


------

BTW, the failed breakout is pretty scary IMO? Anyone agree?

That's what I thought.  It'd be nice for everyone with funds in there is somehow Karpeles pulled a rabbit out of the hat and nobody lost anything, but it doesn't look very likely.  If he had everyone's BTC/fiat then surely he'd have said so by now.

[MickeyT2008]

<RogerVer> On Tuesday Mark told me via text message: Some say I live with 5 beautiful women - others say I can shit rainbows. Truth is, I am the Stig.

If he's lost everyone's BTC/fiat then he wants to hope he's the Stig so that he can make a fast getaway, there'll be a lot of people after him, possibly including some of the sort of people who's funds it's dangerous to lose.

I wonder if the Mafia had any funds in Gox

[donut]

[kkaspar]

It's a long and boring way down with this speed...

[knarzo]

No, everyone who is brainwashed by the Keynesian school "knows" that.  It is a false knowledge, which has never been true, as history demonstrates abundantly.

Now, this got interesting! Tell me how is it false knowledge and tell me when has history proven that it is false knowledge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/hayek-keynes-economics-was-sideline-him 

I seem to have trouble finding the answer to my questions through that link. Could you please summarize the answer for me here.

Sorry. I don't have an academic background and might not be able to summarize it for you.

PS Don't bite the hand that feeds you

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[meanig]

<RogerVer>MTgox claims that someone was using the transaction malability  exploit for years to steal coins,  and they never noticed until they ran out of coins.

They'd have more credibility if they blamed it on aliens

[kkaspar]

No, everyone who is brainwashed by the Keynesian school "knows" that.  It is a false knowledge, which has never been true, as history demonstrates abundantly.

Now, this got interesting! Tell me how is it false knowledge and tell me when has history proven that it is false knowledge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/hayek-keynes-economics-was-sideline-him  

I seem to have trouble finding the answer to my questions through that link. Could you please summarize the answer for me here.

Sorry. I don't have an academic background and might not be able to summarize it for you.

PS Don't bite the hand that feeds you

Sadly that link didn't answer my questions and concentrated on the personality of Keynes and on problems that have very little to do with my original claim.

I think that healthy criticism is what this community around bitcoin currently needs. Cult behavior among the surrounding community is actually driving away a lot of potential investors. People need to come down to earth a little more, or else bitcoin will look more and more like a joke.

[hdbuck]

<RogerVer>MTgox claims that someone was using the transaction malability  exploit for years to steal coins,  and they never noticed until they ran out of coins.

They'd have more credibility if they blamed it on aliens

its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark its mark

[Erdogan]

...what I have understood is that bitcoin isn't a good invention, but it's a good innovation...

The blockchain man, it is a fucking invention, the world had to wait 30 years for this one after public key cryptography was invented.

While I agree, that blockchain is the part that could be classified as an invention the most. Then I still have to say that I see it more as an innovation, because it is built on already created inventions in cryptography. I think that blockchain is a great innovation, but I also think that it will be as great of an innovation in the future as iPhone1 is right now.

I partly agree, because the blockchain (the distributed blockchain, really) was inspired by some proof of work testing as an email spam antimeasure. But following crypto developments from the sideline for many years, reading the bitcoin whitepaper was a revelation.

[Mota]

<RogerVer>MTgox claims that someone was using the transaction malability  exploit for years to steal coins,  and they never noticed until they ran out of coins.

They'd have more credibility if they blamed it on aliens

They never said they ran out of coins. Maybe they ran out of coins in their hotwallet, but since there are nearly 400.000 coins in the coldstorage (link is somewhere in here...) that statement in the pseudo crisis management paper seems to be complete bollocks and only meant to spread fud.
they also never said that the exploit was used over several years, iirc. only the issue was known for several years, not that anyone exploited it. That is only a few months old.

[knarzo]

No, everyone who is brainwashed by the Keynesian school "knows" that.  It is a false knowledge, which has never been true, as history demonstrates abundantly.

Now, this got interesting! Tell me how is it false knowledge and tell me when has history proven that it is false knowledge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/hayek-keynes-economics-was-sideline-him  

I seem to have trouble finding the answer to my questions through that link. Could you please summarize the answer for me here.

Sorry. I don't have an academic background and might not be able to summarize it for you.

PS Don't bite the hand that feeds you

Sadly that link didn't answer my questions and concentrated on the personality of Keynes and on problems that have very little to do with my original claim.

I think that healthy criticism is what this community around bitcoin currently needs. Cult behavior among the surrounding community is actually driving away a lot of potential investors. People need to come down to earth a little more, or else bitcoin will look more and more like a joke.

Come down to earth a little more? You mean like those cultists in glass palaces jumping off their towers? Again? Eh. No need for that from my side.

[shmadz]

This is kind of like $100-$105 in July. We're not going to break the dark order resistance with this small volume now - and that means probably means going lower into a retracement to pick up volume and come back up.

yes. feels exactly like that. still stoking the fires to gain enough steam to get this thing moving... could take a while, at least until they plug the leaks in the boiler.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Run for your livers.

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/27

Prediction posted on: Thursday 2014-02-27, 04:04 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-02-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Recall that I had given two predictions, one for bulls, one for bears.  The actual price was between the two, closer to the bullish one:

Huobi's bearish predicted price: 2781 CNY
Huobi's bullish predicted price: 3802 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3533 CNY
Error of bullish prediction: 269 CNY

Bitstamp's bearish predicted price: 454 USD
Bitstamp's bullish predicted price: 621 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 585 USD
Error of bullish prediction:  36 USD

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp had its normal value R ~ 6.12.  It seems that arbitrage trading has been restored.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

[mb300sd]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Run for your livers.

Between the alcohol and the coca that BTC has driven me to consume this week, I don't think there's much of one left.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday Feb/28

Trade volume for today Feb/27 volume (~123 kBTC) was about half of yesterday's (~251 kBTC), and apparently broke the seven-day spell of hectic trading at Huobi where the price, even at Slumber times, seemed to have no definite trend. It is as if the seven days Feb/20--26 had been one single "trading session", like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

The price at the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) hardly changed from yesterday's: from 3543 CNY to 3533 CNY.  Even though today was nominally a False Slumber Point, it suggests a rather simple pattern that seems to fit most of the True Slumber points since Feb/06.

The general form of the trend is a shifted decaying exponential, p(d) = A + B*Q**d, where A,B,Q are constants and d is the day of the month. The ratio Q, fitted by hand computations to the Slumber Points Feb/6--9, is about 0.66 (i.e. a 34% decay for each day of the part of the price above the constant A).  Since Feb/20 the term B*Q**d is so small that the trend can be approximated by a horizontal line p(d) = A.

That trend is broken into three pieces by two sharp and permanent down-steps, one by ~232 CNY on Feb/10 (the first press release by MtGOX), and the other by ~372 CNY on Feb/20 (the second press release).  Each piece has different values of A and slightly different values of B, which can be found by least squares fitting on the True Slumber points.  See the figure:


The prediction for today (blue rectangle) is obtained by extrapolating the last part of this stepped-exponential trend line --- that is, practically repeating today's value:

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-02-28, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3533 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 577 USD.

For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: As you can see, predicting the past is much easier than predicting the future.